MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-06 11:01:17

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Minnesota
			Reynaldo Lopez							Fernando Romero
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-170							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.344	0.351	33.3%	10.7%	12.2%	36.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.275	0.349	38.7%	8.5%	23.4%	41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.349	27.1%	9.4%	20.1%	34.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.341	35.9%	11.9%	22.6%	57.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Reynaldo Lopez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:		$12,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	8	5.44	4.72	14.5%	6.8%	30.2%	27.8%	17.9%
	2018	11	5.20	3.80	16.3%	10.0%	35.6%	30.3%	24.6%
	L14	2	5.41	8.38	11.6%	9.3%	48.5%	24.2%	21.2%

This is the first game of a double-header, but it doesn’t look like the second game is included in any of the slates around the industry. We’ll only cover the first game, as it is included in the single-game slates as well as the all-day slate on FanDuel. I typically like to use at least one of the pitchers in the showdown slates, but will be fading both in this case. Lopez may have an ERA below 4.00, but his peripheral statistics suggest some serious regression. In 11 starts, he has a 5.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. The projected lineup for the Twins has a .330 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lopez in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Fernando Romero
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:		$14,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:		1 of 28	Salary Rank:

	2018	6	4.16	4.15	22.9%	10.7%	51.8%	36.9%	15.5%
	L14	2	3.99	10.38	19.5%	7.3%	50.0%	30.0%	13.3%

Romero will be making his seventh start of the season. He currently owns a 4.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 11%. While he’s been a little hit or miss in his first major league stint, we know the strikeout upside is there. He draws a favorable matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has a .309 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. He’s a fade in the all-day slate, but certainly viable in the showdown slate.

Quick Breakdown: Romero is viable in the showdown slate on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw a boom or bust matchup against Fernando Romero, who has allowed a .340+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, and Daniel Palka all boast a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. For the single-game slate, we can target a few bats from this lineup. For the all-day slate, we should be able to find better plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.382	0.224	0.223	43.2%	10.8%	33.1%	31.0%	2B	$8,000	2B	$8,400	N/A	N/A
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.346	0.317	0.173	28.9%	2.4%	13.9%	45.0%	3B	$6,500	3B	$7,700	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.414	0.377	0.204	37.4%	6.5%	16.2%	40.3%	1B	$8,000	1B	$9,700	N/A	N/A
4	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.386	0.435	0.267	39.1%	2.3%	25.0%	42.2%	OF	$6,500	OF	$7,300	N/A	N/A
5	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.293	0.331	0.197	25.7%	7.5%	24.4%	44.4%	SS	$7,500	SS	$9,200	N/A	N/A
6	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.291	0.267	0.072	28.9%	11.5%	21.8%	40.4%	C	$4,000	C	$4,500	N/A	N/A
7	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.235	0.229	0.101	19.4%	8.1%	30.6%	45.3%	OF	$6,000	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
8	Charlie Tilson	LEFT	0.222	0.208	0.000	25.0%	5.6%	5.6%	60.0%	OF	$5,500	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
9	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.213	0.260	0.118	11.8%	5.6%	31.5%	32.4%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.309	0.294	0.151	28.8%	6.7%	22.5%	42.3%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins are the offense to load up on in the single-game slate and we can even target a few of their hitters in the all-day slate. On the season, Reynaldo Lopez has allowed a .351 xwOBA to lefties an a .349 xwOBA to righties. He doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, but has some regression coming his way. A fly-ball pitcher with a high walk rate and low strikeout rate is going to give up runs eventually. Brian Dozier is finally turning his season around (.368 xwOBA over the last two weeks), while Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar both boast a .350+ xwOBA against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.322	0.368	0.199	36.9%	8.7%	18.4%	40.3%	2B	$8,500	2B	$9,000	N/A	N/A
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.351	0.365	0.259	39.5%	7.1%	17.1%	31.3%	OF	$8,500	OF	$10,100	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.308	0.255	0.278	48.0%	7.2%	41.2%	44.0%	3B	$7,500	1B/3B	$9,400	N/A	N/A
4	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.350	0.328	0.276	40.4%	5.8%	23.7%	24.8%	3B	$7,500	3B/SS	$8,700	N/A	N/A
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.343	0.313	0.156	42.0%	12.4%	13.7%	39.5%	OF	$7,500	OF	$7,000	N/A	N/A
6	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.330	0.329	0.099	41.4%	13.1%	21.5%	34.3%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,800	N/A	N/A
7	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.310	0.215	0.075	42.3%	6.8%	31.8%	44.0%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,600	N/A	N/A
8	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.282	0.317	0.089	42.1%	7.9%	28.1%	37.0%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,300	N/A	N/A
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.232	0.227	0.167	32.1%	5.0%	25.0%	50.0%	C	$4,000	C	$4,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.314	0.302	0.178	40.5%	8.2%	24.5%	38.4%

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Pittsburgh
			Ross Stripling							Joe Musgrove
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-105							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.229	17.5%	5.0%	32.0%	41.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.254	0.273	42.9%	10.5%	15.8%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.252	30.2%	6.3%	28.1%	53.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.247	0.211	15.4%	5.4%	24.3%	61.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ross Stripling
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$18,500
	Salary Rank:		7 of 28	Salary Rank:		9 of 28	Salary Rank:		7 of 28
	2017	2	3.37	3.75	24.3%	6.3%	49.3%	27.0%	20.4%
	2018	6	2.78	1.68	30.1%	5.6%	47.6%	23.8%	23.0%
	L14	2	1.88	0.66	36.5%	3.9%	64.5%	19.4%	32.3%

The first game of the main slate features two of the most popular value plays that we’ve had at pitcher over the last couple of weeks. Stripling has surpassed all expectations, posting a 2.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% in his six starts this season. He has an above-average ground ball rate and a soft contact rate (23%) that is nearly as high as his hard contact rate (24%). Even though he draws a low-strikeout matchup against the Pirates (16% k-rate against righties for their projected lineup), he’s pitching in a good ballpark in a game that features a total of only 7.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Stripling feels a bit overpriced, but he’s still viable in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Joe Musgrove
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		17 of 28	Salary Rank:		16 of 28	Salary Rank:		14 of 28
	2017	15	4.04	4.77	21.2%	6.1%	44.9%	30.2%	20.2%
	2018	2	3.70	0.64	21.4%	7.1%	57.5%	25.0%	17.5%
	L14	2	3.70	0.64	21.4%	7.1%	57.5%	25.0%	17.5%

Musgrove has looked good in his first two starts of the season, posting a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. Historically, he’s had a slightly above-average ground ball rate and an ability to induce soft and medium contact. While his matchup against the Dodgers is more strikeout-friendly than Stripling’s matchup, you can argue that it’s also more difficult. The projected lineup for the Dodgers has a .333 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Given the big discount across the industry, I prefer Musgrove over Stripling in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Musgrove isn’t a core play tonight, but I’ll have some exposure in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

This isn’t a game to load up on hitters. We have two capable pitchers squaring off in a ballpark that is tough on both run and home run production. With only two starts under his belt this season, it makes more sense to look at the career splits for Joe Musgrove, who has allowed a .329 wOBA to lefties and a .325 wOBA to righties. While we shouldn’t go overboard with our exposure to this game, Yasmani Grandal and Max Muncy are both viable one-offs in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.343	0.371	0.210	32.5%	7.5%	29.0%	31.0%	SS	$3,900	OF/SS	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,200
2	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.285	0.276	0.113	35.3%	3.6%	3.6%	43.1%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
3	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.390	0.303	0.238	41.4%	11.0%	19.2%	41.4%	C	$3,300	C	$4,200	C	$8,500
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.390	0.502	0.203	43.9%	3.8%	20.6%	41.8%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,100
5	Max Muncy	LEFT	0.431	0.454	0.330	49.2%	13.9%	26.9%	34.9%	1B	$3,100	1B/3B	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
6	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.332	0.269	0.202	37.4%	11.7%	15.3%	42.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
7	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.370	0.364	0.200	38.3%	7.9%	21.1%	34.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,200
8	Breyvic Valera	SWITCH	0.235	0.192	0.000	21.4%	15.8%	10.5%	64.3%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$3,000	2B	$5,700
9	Ross Stripling	RIGHT	0.159	0.196	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	44.4%	66.7%	P	$8,500	P	$9,600	P	$18,500
	Team Averages		0.326	0.325	0.166	33.3%	8.4%	21.2%	44.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yasmani Grandal, Max Muncy

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

It’s hard to find anything wrong with the numbers of Ross Stripling. He has a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and a high soft contact rate. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. I would like to continue to ride the red-hot Austin Meadows, but he is no longer priced at a discount and Stripling has been very good at holding runners.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.306	0.323	0.103	39.7%	6.3%	16.7%	35.6%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,200
2	Austin Meadows	LEFT	0.376	0.390	0.263	44.1%	2.5%	12.5%	35.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.289	0.296	0.148	26.2%	6.6%	20.4%	47.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,600
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.327	0.312	0.133	33.8%	10.2%	18.7%	50.8%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,500
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.340	0.257	0.187	33.3%	5.1%	10.1%	30.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,700
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.423	0.369	0.258	40.4%	10.8%	19.6%	33.0%	C	$2,900	C	$4,000	C	$7,400
7	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.364	0.288	0.216	38.5%	12.7%	21.5%	33.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,700
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.320	0.390	0.145	27.8%	7.5%	20.0%	41.7%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,800
9	Joe Musgrove	RIGHT	0.237	0.237	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$7,200	P	$7,500	P	$14,800
	Team Averages		0.331	0.318	0.161	34.3%	6.9%	15.5%	45.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Austin Meadows

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Washington
			Nathan Eovaldi							Max Scherzer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-250							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.000	0.192	37.5%	0.0%	11.1%	62.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.270	0.252	28.9%	6.2%	34.3%	30.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.069	0.214	16.7%	10.0%	30.0%	33.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.197	0.257	38.1%	6.1%	44.7%	39.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nathan Eovaldi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		18 of 28	Salary Rank:		18 of 28	Salary Rank:		17 of 28
	2018	1	3.79	0.00	21.1%	5.3%	50.0%	28.6%	14.3%
	L14	1	3.79	0.00	21.1%	5.3%	50.0%	28.6%	14.3%

Eovaldi didn’t give up a single hit in his season debut against the A’s, striking out four batters in six innings of work. He only threw 79 pitches, but should see a few more in his second start of the year. The issue tonight is twofold — he draws a difficult matchup against the Nationals and run support will be limited with Max Scherzer pitching opposite him. The Nationals’ projected lineup has a .340 xwOBA with a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi is a pitcher to keep an eye on, but can be avoided tonight against the Nationals.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$12,000	Salary:		$13,300	Salary:		$25,400
	Salary Rank:		1 of 28	Salary Rank:		1 of 28	Salary Rank:		1 of 28
	2017	31	2.98	2.51	34.4%	7.1%	36.5%	26.5%	19.5%
	2018	12	2.25	1.92	38.7%	6.1%	34.1%	32.3%	21.0%
	L14	2	3.18	2.57	28.6%	5.4%	33.3%	27.8%	22.2%

Scherzer is the number one pitching option of the slate. While that’s not a hot take by any means, he’s in one of those rare lock and load type of situations. In 12 starts this season, he has a 2.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 39%. He’s pitching at home in a great ballpark and he draws a great matchup against the Rays. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has a .304 xwOBA with a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and that doesn’t even include the numbers for Nathan Eovaldi, who I can’t imagine is a very good hitter.

Quick Breakdown: Lock and load Scherzer in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are a full fade tonight, unless of course you are trying out the new low ball format that DraftKings is offering. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA this season. If for some reason that’s not enough, how about the fact that the Rays have the lowest implied run total (2.29) on the board?

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.270	0.229	0.087	25.2%	8.9%	18.5%	46.7%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	CF	$6,000
2	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.342	0.347	0.188	34.4%	5.1%	22.5%	46.7%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
3	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.287	0.355	0.117	37.0%	6.7%	20.7%	50.0%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.332	0.432	0.157	40.9%	6.9%	21.5%	53.8%	C	$2,800	C	$3,200	C	$6,600
5	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.328	0.360	0.108	33.0%	4.7%	18.6%	46.4%	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
6	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.345	0.278	0.186	41.3%	11.1%	29.6%	35.0%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,000	2B	$6,000
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.302	0.392	0.155	33.7%	7.0%	24.0%	38.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,500
8	Johnny Field	RIGHT	0.228	0.272	0.190	31.1%	1.5%	28.4%	41.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,700
9	Nathan Eovaldi	RIGHT								P	$7,100	P	$7,100	P	$13,500
	Team Averages		0.304	0.333	0.149	34.6%	6.5%	23.0%	44.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

It’s hard to break down the Nationals’ matchup against Nathan Eovaldi because this is only his second start in the last two seasons. If we look at his career splits, he has allowed a .342 wOBA to lefties and a .296 xwOBA to righties. This immediately makes me intrigued by the left-handed bats of Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, and Juan Soto. All three have good numbers against right-handed pitching and outside of Harper, the three-man stack should be relatively low owned.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.352	0.329	0.151	37.1%	10.4%	20.7%	53.5%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,200
2	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.447	0.327	0.343	49.0%	19.9%	20.5%	35.3%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,100
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.373	0.378	0.204	34.8%	10.0%	13.3%	36.3%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,700
4	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.406	0.252	0.330	43.8%	11.5%	19.8%	32.6%	1B	$3,600	1B/OF	$3,900	1B	$7,700
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.353	0.378	0.067	45.5%	11.8%	23.5%	40.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,400
6	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.274	0.292	0.103	33.3%	14.3%	42.9%	53.3%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,700
7	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.267	0.196	0.063	23.0%	10.9%	19.6%	42.6%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
8	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.274	0.230	0.038	21.7%	0.0%	11.1%	60.9%	P	$12,000	P	$13,300	P	$25,400
9	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.311	0.310	0.114	17.4%	11.4%	14.4%	48.9%	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,100	2B	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.340	0.299	0.157	34.0%	11.1%	20.6%	44.9%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Matt Adams, Juan Soto

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Toronto
			CC Sabathia							Marco Estrada
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-135							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.237	21.4%	7.0%	25.6%	53.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.370	0.358	28.6%	9.4%	18.8%	26.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.319	31.9%	6.2%	15.3%	42.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.385	0.378	35.7%	4.4%	14.5%	25.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$12,200
	Salary Rank:		21 of 28	Salary Rank:		22 of 28	Salary Rank:		19 of 28
	2017	27	4.45	3.69	19.3%	8.0%	49.9%	27.2%	24.1%
	2018	10	4.44	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	44.6%	30.1%	27.1%
	L14	2	5.80	9.64	10.6%	10.6%	40.5%	32.4%	24.3%

Sabathia got off to a hot start this season, but has fallen off the proverbial cliff recently. In his last two starts, he has a 5.80 SIERA with as many walks as strikeouts. He now has to pitch on the road against a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ lineup that has a .334 xwOBA against southpaws this season. While Sabathia does have a good track record against Toronto, there are too many red flags to warrant consideration — most notably his form.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sabathia in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,100	Salary:		$8,300
	Salary Rank:		20 of 28	Salary Rank:		29 of 28	Salary Rank:		26 of 28
	2017	33	4.69	4.98	21.8%	8.8%	30.3%	27.2%	21.4%
	2018	11	5.13	5.68	16.5%	6.7%	26.0%	32.7%	19.9%
	L14	2	6.62	9.00	5.0%	5.0%	27.8%	33.3%	27.8%

Estrada is a form pitcher. When he’s on, he’s great. When he’s off, he’s one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. He seems to have a good track record against every team in the American League, but he’s struggled in his division battles this season. Overall, he’s far too risky to play in a 14-game slate, especially in a matchup against the Yankees. New York’s projected lineup has a .355 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: More risk than upside with Estrada tonight. He can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and are facing a struggling fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs. This sounds like the perfect recipe for a stack and with 13 other games on the schedule, it won’t be so chalky that we have to automatically fade it in tournaments. On the season, Marco Estrada has allowed a .358 xwOBA to lefties and a .379 xwOBA to righties. While the Yankees don’t have a high batting average against Estrada, their current roster has 21 home runs in 225 plate appearances against him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.316	0.314	0.166	34.7%	13.6%	16.4%	49.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.429	0.468	0.322	46.6%	14.4%	27.8%	44.7%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,800
3	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.273	0.287	0.292	40.0%	0.0%	37.5%	46.7%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,000
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.302	0.346	0.143	33.7%	9.1%	32.6%	57.1%	OF	$4,700	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,100
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.357	0.285	0.254	37.1%	10.5%	25.0%	38.1%	C	$3,600	C	$4,300	C	$8,600
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.345	0.239	0.266	41.0%	10.3%	15.2%	31.4%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
7	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.353	0.422	0.184	40.2%	13.7%	19.4%	42.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,300
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.393	0.434	0.231	39.8%	2.2%	20.9%	47.6%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,100
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.427	0.507	0.287	39.1%	6.1%	25.5%	27.0%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,800
	Team Averages		0.355	0.367	0.238	39.1%	8.9%	24.5%	42.7%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays get to face CC Sabathia at an opportune time, as his form is nowhere near where it was earlier in the season. With that said, he’s still not a pitcher that I like to stack against. He is still one of the best in baseball at inducing soft contact (27%). On the season, Sabathia has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Kendrys Morales (9-for-25), Justin Smoak (10-for-31), and Russell Martin (8-for-28) have the best BvP numbers against Sabathia, but they don’t quite make the final cut in terms of being elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.396	0.278	0.254	35.6%	7.4%	26.5%	42.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,500
2	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.359	0.287	0.275	33.8%	7.9%	11.2%	36.6%	3B	$3,600	2B/3B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.351	0.391	0.143	27.8%	12.0%	20.5%	50.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.315	0.556	0.098	37.5%	10.4%	22.9%	50.0%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,600
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.296	0.314	0.157	39.0%	3.9%	17.1%	35.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.343	0.344	0.033	28.6%	18.4%	23.7%	57.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,800
7	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.383	0.255	0.280	36.4%	3.8%	11.5%	45.5%	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,100	2B	$5,700
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.321	0.239	0.065	20.8%	8.3%	22.2%	33.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,600
9	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.242	0.370	0.000	26.9%	8.1%	18.9%	46.2%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.334	0.337	0.145	31.8%	8.9%	19.4%	44.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								NY Mets
			Alex Cobb							Jason Vargas
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-115							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.473	0.416	34.3%	5.6%	13.3%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.421	0.377	24.0%	13.9%	13.9%	28.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.382	0.349	33.0%	5.5%	10.2%	56.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.404	0.363	38.1%	6.9%	20.7%	41.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		23 of 28	Salary Rank:		26 of 28	Salary Rank:		24 of 28
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%
	2018	9	4.74	6.80	11.5%	5.5%	51.7%	33.5%	20.1%
	L14	2	5.44	7.59	12.2%	10.2%	50.0%	23.7%	29.0%

Cobb has fallen from grace after undergoing Tommy John surgery a few years back. In his nine starts this season, he has a 4.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He still has a decent ground ball rate, but he’s only going to get BABIP’d to death with a strikeout rate this low. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Mets, whose projected lineup has a .341 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cobb in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jason Vargas
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,200
	Salary Rank:		22 of 28	Salary Rank:		25 of 28	Salary Rank:		23 of 28
	2017	32	4.86	4.16	17.7%	7.7%	40.3%	32.7%	17.9%
	2018	6	4.66	8.53	18.7%	8.9%	37.2%	34.1%	14.8%
	L14	3	3.55	3.46	25.9%	7.4%	44.4%	27.8%	13.9%

Vargas has pitched better in his last three starts, but still owns a 4.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19% on the season. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, which is never ideal in any matchup or ballpark. The Orioles haven’t been elite against southpaws this season, but the addition of Danny Valencia has helped. Surprisingly, their projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .352 xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Vargas is the preferred pitcher in this game, but both can be avoided in a 14-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles see a negative ballpark shift playing in Citi Field and they lose the use of the DH in this series. I hate to say it, but maybe losing Chris Davis as the DH will help the offense — he has been so bad this season. While this isn’t a perfect situation, the Orioles draw an exploitable matchup against Jason Vargas, who has allowed a .363 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Danny Valencia are all viable one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.249	0.246	0.100	25.0%	6.3%	31.3%	35.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,400
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.346	0.370	0.077	31.0%	2.9%	11.8%	37.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,400
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.444	0.275	0.339	41.1%	10.4%	6.0%	33.9%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,200	3B	$9,700
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.308	0.341	0.138	35.0%	3.3%	30.0%	55.0%	OF	$2,400	1B	$3,600	DH	$7,600
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.288	0.177	0.068	25.0%	6.3%	16.7%	38.9%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,700
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.413	0.349	0.211	31.3%	10.9%	14.1%	45.8%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,100	3B	$5,500
7	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.330	0.289	0.171	31.5%	9.0%	20.5%	68.5%	OF	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,500
8	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.435	0.334	0.333	50.0%	18.2%	45.5%	25.0%	C	$2,100	C	$3,100	C	$5,700
9	Alex Cobb	RIGHT								P	$6,000	P	$4,800	P	$9,200
	Team Averages		0.352	0.298	0.180	33.7%	8.4%	22.0%	42.5%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Danny Valencia

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

It seems like the Mets become a viable stack once or twice a week. They have sneaky upside against right-handed pitching (their projected lineup has a .341 xwOBA and a .176 ISO this season) and an excellent matchup against Alex Cobb. In addition to having one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball, he has allowed a .416 xwOBA to lefties and a .349 xwOBA to righties. With Todd Frazier activated off the DL, it just adds another bat to this already stacked lineup. Oh and before I forget, do yourself a favor and check out the game log for Brandon Nimmo (insert eyes emoji).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.457	0.401	0.344	45.1%	15.7%	16.5%	25.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,200
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.403	0.403	0.234	47.2%	5.5%	18.9%	36.1%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,200	SS	$8,400
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.328	0.408	0.132	54.2%	9.5%	33.3%	33.3%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,500
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.348	0.347	0.164	28.2%	17.0%	22.0%	38.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,200
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.385		0.182	43.9%	15.6%	22.0%	36.4%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,200
6	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.346	0.346	0.284	31.0%	7.3%	19.5%	34.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
7	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.377	0.357	0.140	34.6%	11.0%	16.6%	30.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,400
8	Jason Vargas	LEFT	0.125	0.143	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	P	$6,100	P	$5,000	P	$10,200
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.297	0.317	0.101	28.8%	3.4%	20.4%	51.4%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.341	0.340	0.176	34.8%	9.4%	25.1%	31.9%

Elite Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Michael Conforto, Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Jay Bruce

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 5th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Baltimore at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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