MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-25 02:41:09

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Tampa Bay at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					Miami
			Jake Odorizzi					Tom Koehler
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -120					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.270	7	24.8%	4.9%	SP vs. Left	0.339	17	18.0%	10.9%
SP vs. Right	0.333	19	16.6%	8.3%	SP vs. Right	0.315	8	15.8%	9.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Odorizzi
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,100
				FPPG:		23.6	FPPG:		12.6
				Pitcher Rating:		64.6	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	2	6.21	7.00	9.8%	12.2%	7.1%	40.6%	46.9%	40.6%
2016	9	4.25	3.81	18.7%	6.4%	8.8%	37.7%	43.0%	38.8%
2015	28	3.90	3.35	21.4%	6.6%	10.1%	37.3%	40.6%	27.0%

There are two things to look for with Odorizzi – his form and whether or not he is pitching at home. He doesn’t have either in his favor tonight, as he has been shelled in his last two starts and is pitching on the road against the Marlins. Odorizzi has shown nice strikeout upside in the past, but this game is included in the all-day slate, which has pitching options.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tom Koehler
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,600
				FPPG:		22.1	FPPG:		9.7
				Pitcher Rating:		43.0	Pitcher Rank:		24
L14 Days	2	5.94	2.13	13.8%	17.2%	7.2%	60.5%	26.3%	17.5%
2016	8	5.31	4.71	16.2%	13.1%	7.5%	45.3%	35.9%	24.1%
2015	31	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Koehler has not pitched well this season, posting a 5.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.2%. He has really struggled with his command, walking over 13% of the batters that he has faced. His swinging strike rate is too low and he doesn’t have the strikeout upside to make up for the runs that he has been giving up. Even though the matchup against the Rays is a favorable one, Koehler can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays strikeout at a high rate, but they have the second highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. If you want some exposure to the early game, you can certainly look at the left-handed hitters from the Rays. Over the last two seasons, Koehler has allowed a .339 wOBA and 17 home runs to batters from the left side of the plate.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.5% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.24 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.12 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.321	0.131	0.411	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.338	0.188	0.315	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.308	0.161	0.380	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,000
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.329	0.206	0.489	1B	$3,600	1B/2B	$3,900
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.321	0.184	0.374	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
6	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.280	0.114	0.341	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.292	0.197	0.371	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$2,900
8	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.325	0.310	0.180	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
9	Jake Odorizzi	RIGHT	0.000	0.000		P	$7,700	P	$7,100
	Team Averages	—	0.279	0.166	0.358	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brad Miller

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Steve Pearce

Stackability – NONE

Miami

It’s hard to get excited about the Marlins’ offense when they are facing a right-handed pitcher at home. The ballpark doesn’t exactly help offensive production and the Marlins come into the game with a mediocre team total of 3.88 runs. Tom Koehler is a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .333 wOBA and 19 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.88 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.256	0.033	0.588	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,300
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.316	0.091	0.263	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,300
3	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.361	0.259	0.362	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,500
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.358	0.278	0.211	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.304	0.141	0.514	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,100
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.369	0.216	0.276	2B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,300
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.298	0.129	0.304	C	$2,600	C	$3,100
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.272	0.085	0.228	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.133	0.020	0.000	P	$6,500	P	$7,600
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.139	0.305	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ichiro Suzuki, Justin Bour, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Pittsburgh
			Shelby Miller					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -180					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.337	14	15.2%	10.1%	SP vs. Left	0.270	3	25.6%	9.6%
SP vs. Right	0.277	8	22.7%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.301	21	26.1%	9.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Shelby Miller
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,700
				FPPG:		12.5	FPPG:		4.5
				Pitcher Rating:		32.3	Pitcher Rank:		28
L14 Days	2	4.80	4.76	13.7%	7.8%	7.5%	41.0%	25.6%	40.0%
2016	9	5.65	6.64	14.2%	13.2%	6.5%	39.4%	37.9%	38.0%
2015	33	4.16	3.02	19.9%	8.5%	9.2%	47.7%	34.1%	26.7%

Miller has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on this season. Through nine starts, he has a 5.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.2%. He has walked nearly as many hitters as he has struck out and he is giving up an extremely high hard hit contact rate of 38%. At this point, Miller should not be on your radar in any league format. The risk greatly outweighs the potential reward.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Francisco Liriano
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$8,500
				FPPG:		28.2	FPPG:		14.0
				Pitcher Rating:		81.6	Pitcher Rank:		6
L14 Days	2	4.52	7.71	20.0%	10.9%	14.1%	43.2%	32.4%	34.2%
2016	8	4.12	4.63	23.9%	12.0%	11.4%	52.8%	31.2%	35.6%
2015	31	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

Liriano pitched well in his last start, but he didn’t see any run support and was eventually left with the loss. He doesn’t have the best command in the world, but a lot of that is by design. He throws a lot of pitches in the dirt to get batters to chase. I’m a big fan of his price tonight, especially on DraftKings. I have him ranked as the sixth best pitching option on the board tonight, yet he is the 12th most expensive. The Diamondbacks have hit left-handed pitching well this season, but Liriano is facing them at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. He is a viable SP2 tonight on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are ranked inside the top ten in team wOBA, team ISO, and team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. The problem is that they are facing a tough southpaw in Francisco Liriano and they are facing him in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. With the tenth lowest team total on the board, the Diamondbacks are best suited as GPP plays tonight.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.357 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.206 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.6% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.65 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.79 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.315	0.112	0.289	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,900
2	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.359	0.215	0.340	OF	$2,800	3B/OF	$2,900
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.429	0.229	0.369	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,400
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.252	0.122	0.314	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,400
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.385	0.301	0.236	C	$3,100	C	$3,300
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.378	0.227	0.324	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.259	0.124	0.406	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800
8	Shelby Miller	RIGHT	0.114	0.063	0.531	P	$6,700	P	$5,700
9	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.337	0.164	0.364	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.173	0.353	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

As I mentioned earlier, Shelby Miller has been one of my favorite punching bags this season. In nine starts, Miller has allowed a .421 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .346 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Pirates have the fourth highest team total on the schedule, as they are projected to score 4.71 runs. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play, but the lefties have the edge in this matchup.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.338 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.83 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.71 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.365	0.172	0.380	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.368	0.199	0.332	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.338	0.152	0.412	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.354	0.155	0.247	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.325	0.131	0.308	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,400
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.323	0.082	0.227	C	$2,700	C	$3,100
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.303	0.103	0.341	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,400
8	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.303	0.141	0.284	OF	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,900
9	Francisco Liriano	LEFT	0.261	0.095	0.441	P	$9,500	P	$8,500
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.137	0.330	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, David Freese, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Mets					Washington
			Matt Harvey					Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -165					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.324	18	23.4%	7.5%	SP vs. Left	0.246	6	30.0%	7.4%
SP vs. Right	0.254	5	24.0%	3.1%	SP vs. Right	0.310	12	30.1%	3.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Harvey
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,500
				FPPG:		24.1	FPPG:		10.7
				Pitcher Rating:		69.5	Pitcher Rank:		8
L14 Days	2	3.80	11.88	17.4%	4.4%	10.5%	41.2%	17.6%	30.6%
2016	9	4.08	5.77	19.6%	6.8%	10.7%	39.6%	31.2%	29.8%
2015	29	3.23	2.71	24.9%	4.9%	11.6%	46.0%	36.1%	26.7%

Harvey just doesn’t look right. Even though his SIERA and strikeout rate look a lot better than his ERA, you can tell that he just doesn’t have that same bravado from years past. At this point, I will be avoiding Harvey in all league formats until he can flash some form. The Nationals haven’t fared well against right-handed pitching this season, but they did put up nine runs on Harvey in their meeting last week.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Stephen Strasburg
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$10,600	Salary:		$13,400
				FPPG:		48.3	FPPG:		26.3
				Pitcher Rating:		97.0	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	3	2.74	3.79	34.2%	8.5%	11.7%	42.2%	35.6%	26.1%
2016	9	2.79	2.80	30.9%	6.6%	12.1%	47.3%	33.1%	25.2%
2015	23	2.76	3.46	29.6%	5.0%	11.2%	42.2%	34.3%	28.9%

Strasburg dominated the Mets in New York last week and he will look to do the same tonight in Washington. He has been tremendous this season, posting a 2.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate over 30%. He is generating his highest swinging strike rate since his rookie season and he produces a lot of ground ball outs. Even though the Mets have hit right-handed pitching well this season, Strasburg grades out as the top pitching option in the slate, slightly edging out Chris Sale.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets were unable to get much of anything going against Stephen Strasburg in their last meeting and they will likely have a similar fate tonight. Over the last two seasons, Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA. With the third lowest team total on the board, the Mets should be avoided in all league formats.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.88 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.12 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.372	0.224	0.284	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,200
2	David Wright	RIGHT	0.336	0.138	0.229	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,100
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.400	0.289	0.378	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,200
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.387	0.277	0.451	OF	$4,400	OF	$3,900
5	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.335	0.182	0.338	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,900
6	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.321	0.157	0.247	SS	$3,000	SS	$2,500
7	Eric Campbell	RIGHT	0.279	0.080	0.224	3B	$2,000	1B/3B	$2,600
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.264	0.064	0.167	C	$2,100	C	$2,000
9	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.099	0.038	0.000	P	$7,500	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.310	0.161	0.258	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals jumped on Matt Harvey early in their last meeting and eventually scored nine runs against him. While I don’t love the place that Harvey is in right now, I’m not ready to start stacking offenses against him in cash games. The Nationals have the 12th lowest team total on the board. You can certainly mix in some Nationals’ hitters tonight, but I’m not going to go overboard.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.34 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.88 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.307	0.077	0.197	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
2	Chris Heisey	RIGHT	0.371	0.262	0.418	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.464	0.343	0.352	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,100
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.369	0.205	0.356	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,400
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.290	0.156	0.405	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.309	0.104	0.437	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,200
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.292	0.137	0.368	C	$3,400	C	$3,300
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.299	0.156	0.248	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,600
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.148	0.000	0.000	P	$10,600	P	$13,400
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.160	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ben Revere, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – GPP

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					NY Yankees
			R.A. Dickey					Nathan Eovaldi
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -125					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.307	16	12.6%	8.3%	SP vs. Left	0.353	8	18.2%	8.4%
SP vs. Right	0.317	17	16.9%	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.285	9	19.7%	5.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
R.A. Dickey
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,800
				FPPG:		22.5	FPPG:		11.2
				Pitcher Rating:		29.3	Pitcher Rank:		30
L14 Days	2	3.53	2.57	22.2%	3.7%	14.0%	41.0%	43.6%	22.5%
2016	9	4.36	4.50	17.5%	7.4%	10.4%	45.0%	33.9%	28.5%
2015	33	4.76	3.91	14.3%	6.9%	9.1%	41.9%	37.2%	23.9%

Dickey has pitched well in his last two starts, but we have to trust the larger sample size here. Over the last two seasons, he has a SIERA above 4.50 with a strikeout rate below 15%. There are a number of bad pitching options tonight, yet Dickey grades out as the worst option in the slate. He should be avoided tonight against the Yankees, who have the fifth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Nathan Eovaldi
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,600
				FPPG:		32.1	FPPG:		16.5
				Pitcher Rating:		65.9	Pitcher Rank:		11
L14 Days	2	3.78	3.27	18.6%	4.7%	6.6%	51.5%	33.3%	15.2%
2016	8	3.27	4.44	22.6%	5.0%	8.9%	54.5%	29.4%	30.8%
2015	27	3.99	4.20	18.0%	7.3%	8.7%	52.2%	26.0%	28.0%

Eovaldi has a 4.44 ERA on the season, but his indicators look good. Through eight starts, he has a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.6% and a walk rate of only 5%. He is producing an elite ground ball rate, although his hard hit contact rate is a small concern. The biggest issue with Eovaldi is his matchup against the Blue Jays. They are currently ranked eighth in team ISO against right-handed pitching and Yankee Stadium is more of a hitter’s park than a pitcher’s park. There are better pitching options available tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have struggled offensively this season, but they have shown flashes recently. They could finally be coming out of their month-long slump. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Nathan Eovaldi, who has allowed a .353 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. I prefer the left-handed hitters in this matchup, but the righties are worth a look in tournaments.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.04 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.85 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.390	0.298	0.432	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,000
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.379	0.254	0.281	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,400
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.377	0.269	0.314	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,200
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.363	0.169	0.481	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,800
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.321	0.176	0.397	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,700
6	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.345	0.225	0.351	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,100
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.298	0.172	0.218	C	$2,000	C	$2,800
8	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.341	0.191	0.324	SS	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,400
9	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.305	0.129	0.131	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.347	0.209	0.325	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

The Yankees haven’t been great offensively this season, but they are ranked right around the major league average in team wOBA and team ISO. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against R.A. Dickey, who has allowed 33 home runs in the last two seasons. Dustin Ackley and Mark Teixeira have the best track records against Dickey, but all of the left-handed bats are in play here.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.4% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.307	0.111	0.424	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.337	0.158	0.343	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.360	0.216	0.443	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.338	0.212	0.338	C	$3,200	C	$3,700
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.354	0.277	0.202	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,400
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.295	0.132	0.280	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,100
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.302	0.099	0.375	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,100
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.301	0.119	0.369	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000
9	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.289	0.130	0.300	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.162	0.342	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Detroit
			Jeremy Hellickson					Justin Verlander
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -185					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.348	11	18.1%	9.4%	SP vs. Left	0.266	10	23.0%	6.7%
SP vs. Right	0.325	20	22.0%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.309	11	21.8%	6.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeremy Hellickson
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$8,400
				FPPG:		31.2	FPPG:		16.2
				Pitcher Rating:		43.3	Pitcher Rank:		23
L14 Days	2	2.86	1.38	27.7%	4.3%	14.8%	43.8%	31.3%	25.0%
2016	9	3.52	3.99	24.2%	6.3%	12.0%	41.0%	36.7%	32.9%
2015	27	4.14	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%

Hellickson continues to pitch well for the Phillies. Through his first nine starts of the season, he has a 3.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.2%. He is generating his highest swinging strike rate since his rookie season and he doesn’t give up many walks. Unfortunately, Vegas doesn’t seem to be on board, at least not for tonight’s game. He is one of the largest underdogs on the board, as he squares off against the Tigers in Detroit. We should wait for a better matchup before targeting Hellickson.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Justin Verlander
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$11,000
				FPPG:		33.3	FPPG:		18.0
				Pitcher Rating:		81.9	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	2	3.18	2.35	30.0%	8.3%	15.2%	38.9%	47.2%	16.7%
2016	9	3.73	4.58	25.4%	8.5%	11.3%	35.9%	47.1%	28.6%
2015	20	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

Verlander is coming off of two nice starts in a row. For the season, he now owns a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4%. He grades out as a top five pitching option tonight, but his price across the industry varies greatly. He is the eighth most expensive option on FanDuel ($8,500) and the fourth most expensive on DraftKings ($11,000). He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, who are ranked 27th in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies currently average the second fewest runs per game this season. They are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they have the ninth lowest team total on the board. Maikel Franco is the only Phillies’ hitter on my radar tonight. He has a .189 ISO against right-handed pitching and Justin Verlander is a reverse-splits pitcher.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.286 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.128 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.23 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.76 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.357	0.137	0.417	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,400
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.289	0.071	0.227	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,400
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.187	0.331	3B	$2,800	3B	$2,900
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.325	0.238	0.163	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,900
5	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.415	1B	$2,000	1B/C	$2,900
6	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.277	0.128	0.409	C	$2,700	C	$2,200
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.289	0.116	0.296	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,700
8	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.337	0.136	0.436	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.249	0.110	0.233	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.274	0.125	0.325	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

The Tigers strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching, but they are ranked fifth in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO. They have the third highest team total on the board, as they host Jeremy Hellickson and the Phillies. Over the last two seasons, Hellickson has allowed a .348 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .325 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.338 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.4% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.60 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.74 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.145	0.419	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,800
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.364	0.243	0.469	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,300
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.412	0.209	0.584	1B	$4,400	1B	$4,500
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.299	0.143	0.394	C	$3,400	1B	$3,400
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.313	0.166	0.385	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,400
6	Steven Moya	LEFT	0.304	0.150	0.328	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800
7	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.312	0.090	0.578	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,200
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SWITCH	0.326	0.236	0.274	C	$2,500	C	$3,000
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.281	0.055	0.185	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.328	0.160	0.402	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 24th

Tampa Bay at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brad Miller

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Steve Pearce

Stackability – NONE

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ichiro Suzuki, Justin Bour, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, David Freese, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – Cash & GPP

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ben Revere, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – GPP

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Cameron Maybin (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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