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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-21 02:18:19

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -132 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.339 1 17.2% 20.2% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.268 7 30.6% 25.9%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.322 14 29.7% 17.7% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.350 16 30.1% 22.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,100
FPPG: 21.1 FPPG: 10.6
Pitcher Rating: 51.3 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 91.5 5.76 4.57 11.6% 8.4% 9.0% 37.0% 49.3% 23.0%
2016 17 90.8 4.83 4.98 18.3% 8.2% 9.7% 32.3% 45.4% 27.1%
2015 21 95.7 4.16 3.85 18.8% 7.1% 7.8% 43.0% 33.4% 31.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.74 — K%: 17.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.87 — K%: 19.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299

Rodriguez was roughed up by the Yankees in his last start. Tonight he heads to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in a game that means a lot to both teams. Rodriguez has been in bad form in his last five starts, posting a 5.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.3%. While he limits the hard contact against him, he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. The Orioles may not have the best numbers against left-handed pitching, but they hit more home runs than any team in baseball.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $7,700
FPPG: 32.4 FPPG: 17.3
Pitcher Rating: 72.8 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 112.2 3.44 0.82 24.8% 5.4% 11.2% 48.9% 31.8% 27.3%
2016 27 103.8 3.74 3.43 24.0% 6.4% 10.9% 43.4% 35.1% 30.3%
2015 17 110.4 3.69 4.25 21.9% 6.2% 10.9% 44.4% 38.1% 27.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.24 — K%: 22.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.275
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.06 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.345

Gausman has pitched well at home in the last two seasons, posting a 2.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7% and a wOBA allowed of .275. While his matchup against the Red Sox appears awful, he is a favorite and he is pitching in front of his home crowd. I’m not suggesting Gausman in cash games, but he is a sneaky tournament play that no one is going to own. He’s actually had some success against the Red Sox, holding their current roster to a .267 wOBA with 32 strikeouts in 161 plate appearances.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox come into tonight’s game with a mediocre run projection. We typically like to target their offense at home and I’m not in love with their matchup against Kevin Gausman. He has terrific home splits in his career. The one potential area of exploitation in this matchup is with right-handed hitters. Gausman has allowed a .350 wOBA and 16 home runs to righties this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.363 0.132 33.7% 0.355 2B $3,400 2B $3,800
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.344 0.151 29.2% 0.308 SS $4,000 SS $4,100
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.444 0.360 46.5% 0.400 1B $4,400 1B $5,300
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.383 0.215 33.5% 0.277 OF $4,100 OF $5,100
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.344 0.185 37.3% 0.472 1B $4,000 1B $4,900
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.336 0.189 36.9% 0.313 3B $2,600 1B/3B $4,200
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.356 0.160 35.3% 0.270 C $2,600 C $3,100
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.383 0.266 39.5% 0.369 OF $3,500 OF $4,400
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.416 0.228 33.3% 0.453 OF $3,000 OF $2,500
Team Averages — 0.374 0.210 36.1% 0.357 — — — —

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles are small favorites tonight against Eduardo Rodriguez in a game that features a high over/under. While I like the high implied team total for Baltimore, I do have some concerns about the matchup. Rodriguez has done a nice job of limiting hard contact against him this season (27.1%), although he has allowed a .322+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.258 0.104 32.0% 0.304 OF $3,400 OF $4,000
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.279 0.156 21.4% 0.265 2B $3,000 2B $3,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.393 0.214 38.1% 0.317 3B $3,700 3B/SS $4,700
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.272 0.232 35.9% 0.235 OF $3,500 OF $4,300
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.320 0.203 32.7% 0.402 1B $3,600 1B $4,600
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.266 0.084 33.3% 0.346 C $2,800 C $3,600
7 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.323 0.191 44.1% 0.418 SS $2,600 SS $3,700
8 Drew Stubbs RIGHT 0.287 0.067 32.1% 0.251 OF $3,300
9 Nolan Reimold RIGHT 0.265 0.121 26.1% 0.361 OF $2,400 OF $2,900
Team Averages — 0.296 0.152 32.9% 0.322 — — — —

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Philadelphia
whitesoxmlb James Shields philadelphiamlb Jake Thompson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI -109 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.366 14 28.6% 14.6% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.393 3 31.9% 13.9%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.394 23 40.0% 17.3% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.316 5 37.5% 16.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,700
FPPG: 19.5 FPPG: 8.4
Pitcher Rating: 54.9 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 95.7 4.87 6.10 20.8% 11.8% 8.9% 37.2% 43.6% 33.0%
2016 30 93.9 5.19 5.84 16.0% 10.0% 8.8% 40.8% 38.2% 34.5%
2015 33 101.1 3.72 3.91 25.1% 9.4% 12.4% 44.9% 34.4% 31.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.16 — K%: 22.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.359
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.52 — K%: 19.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.353

Shields is coming off of his best start of the season, striking out eight batters while only giving up a single earned run to the Indians. While it was nice to see him have a good outing, I’m not sure that we can expect him to suddenly become a good pitcher again. On the season, he has a 5.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. Vegas seems to agree with me here, as Shields is a small underdog against the Phillies in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs.

Jake Thompson
jake-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,600
FPPG: 20.5 FPPG: 8.9
Pitcher Rating: 41.1 Pitcher Rank: 27
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 95.4 5.30 4.15 14.8% 10.2% 5.9% 45.1% 37.4% 31.9%
2016 8 93.8 5.34 5.64 15.3% 11.2% 6.8% 47.1% 35.3% 34.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.90 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 9.20 — K%: 11.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.435

Thompson has really struggled at the major league level this season, posting a 5.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.3% and a walk rate of 11.2%. You know you aren’t very good when your numbers are worse than those of James Shields. He is the barometer of suckiness this season. Thompson is an easy fade tonight against the White Sox, who have the eighth highest team wOBA over the last month of play.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have multiples of eight littered throughout their statistics below. They are ranked 24th in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching, they are ranked 16th in team K% and pitches per plate appearance, and they are ranked eighth in recent team wOBA and tonight’s run projection. By my calculations, that means that they will score eight runs tonight. They certainly have the matchup for it, as Jake Thompson has allowed a .393 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .316 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.348 0.164 32.2% 0.347 OF $3,400 OF $4,600
2 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.306 0.142 21.9% 0.403 SS $3,100 2B/SS $4,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.355 0.162 31.4% 0.442 1B $3,300 1B $4,700
4 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.141 28.8% 0.373 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.316 0.222 31.0% 0.279 3B $3,900 3B $4,200
6 Alex Avila LEFT 0.318 0.153 34.6% 0.292 C $2,500 C $3,300
7 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.300 0.129 33.7% 0.346 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
8 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.306 0.142 21.9% 0.403 SS $3,100 2B/SS $4,200
9 James Shields RIGHT 0.165 0.000 14.3% P $6,700 P $5,700
Team Averages — 0.305 0.139 27.8% 0.361 — — — —

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Tyler Saladino, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Alex Avila

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies may have one of the worst offenses in baseball, but they come into tonight’s game with the seventh highest team total on the board. They draw a premier matchup against James Shields, who has allowed a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .394 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. A Phillies’ stack could be in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.330 0.119 26.5% 0.344 2B $3,400 2B $3,800
2 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.241 0.056 8.3% 0.312 OF $2,200 OF $2,800
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.351 0.158 30.2% 0.413 OF $3,600 OF $4,600
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.327 0.255 37.8% 0.392 1B $2,300 1B $4,200
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.290 0.156 28.8% 0.240 3B $2,500 3B $3,900
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.305 0.173 32.0% 0.238 C $2,800 C $3,600
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.298 0.180 28.6% 0.308 SS $2,900 SS $4,400
8 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.267 0.098 31.2% 0.289 OF $2,700 OF $3,700
9 Jake Thompson RIGHT 0.265 0.125 25.0% 0.207 P $6,200 P $4,600
Team Averages — 0.297 0.147 27.6% 0.305 — — — —

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Tommy Joseph or Ryan Howard

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Roman Quinn, Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta NY Mets
atlantamlb Julio Teheran nymetsmlb Robert Gsellman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -127 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.312 12 35.0% 16.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.325 0 31.0% 19.1%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.250 9 33.5% 27.6% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.307 1 28.0% 18.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
julio-teheran-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $10,300
FPPG: 30.1 FPPG: 17.1
Pitcher Rating: 68.3 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 98.5 4.02 4.58 21.3% 5.3% 10.8% 38.1% 41.9% 31.5%
2016 27 99.4 3.92 3.18 22.2% 5.4% 10.2% 39.3% 42.1% 34.2%
2015 33 99.2 4.24 4.04 20.3% 8.7% 10.8% 39.5% 36.2% 31.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.15 — K%: 22.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.25 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.334

As I always seem to mention with Teheran, he has some glaring home/road splits in his career. In the last two seasons, he has a 4.25 ERA on the road with a strikeout rate of 19.1% and a wOBA allowed of .334. The issue is that his price in DFS doesn’t reflect those splits, which means he is typically overpriced on the road. He always brings decent upside to the table, but I will be avoiding Teheran against a Mets’ offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA over the last month of play.

Robert Gsellman
robert-gsellman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,500
FPPG: 23.2 FPPG: 11.4
Pitcher Rating: 62.5 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 92.0 4.44 3.08 18.9% 9.0% 8.4% 48.6% 28.4% 29.1%
2016 4 92.0 4.43 3.08 18.9% 9.0% 8.4% 48.6% 28.4% 29.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.75 — K%: 17.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.51 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.316

The Mets weren’t expecting to lose to the Braves last night at home with their ace on the mound. They still hold the lead in the wildcard race, but it’s down to one game over both the Cardinals and Giants. Gsellman will be on the mound for New York. He will be making his fifth career major league start. His numbers have been mediocre thus far and at this point, we should want nothing to do with pitchers facing the Braves. Over the last month of play, they have the second highest team wOBA in baseball.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are a great example of why we should be looking at recent numbers in addition to season long averages. While they have struggled as a whole offensively, they have been red-hot over the last month of play. They come into tonight’s game with a low implied team total, but I’m not overly concerned about their matchup against Robert Gsellman. We shouldn’t be surprised if the Braves’ offense keeps rolling tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.317 0.103 25.6% 0.327 OF $2,800 OF $4,600
2 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.300 0.155 31.9% 0.246 3B $2,900 3B $4,300
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.410 0.290 43.0% 0.387 1B $3,700 1B $4,800
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.319 0.209 36.2% 0.459 OF $3,600 OF $4,600
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.342 0.159 34.1% 0.425 OF $2,900 OF $4,800
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.349 0.147 47.3% 0.346 C $2,400 C $3,900
7 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.341 0.146 24.6% 0.379 2B $2,600 2B $3,900
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.291 0.089 32.8% 0.392 SS $3,100 SS $3,000
9 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.152 0.027 15.6% 0.176 P $8,200 P $10,300
Team Averages — 0.313 0.147 32.3% 0.349 — — — —

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Adonis Garcia, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

The Mets need to win or they could find themselves in a three-way tie for the two wildcards spots in the National League. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Julio Teheran, who is an easy pitcher to break down in terms of handedness. He is dominant against right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .312 wOBA and a hard contact rate of 35% to lefties this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.281 0.127 26.2% 0.324 3B $2,800 3B/SS $3,900
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.335 0.204 36.1% 0.366 SS $3,300 SS $3,600
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.359 0.254 38.0% 0.296 OF $3,700 OF $3,800
4 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.335 0.245 38.8% 0.427 OF $3,500 OF $4,500
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.347 0.265 39.6% 0.190 OF $3,100 OF $3,500
6 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.390 0.167 22.9% 0.439 3B $2,600 2B/3B $2,400
7 James Loney LEFT 0.311 0.121 30.1% 0.345 1B $2,500 1B $2,700
8 Travis D’Arnaud RIGHT 0.297 0.101 31.8% 0.191 C $2,100 C $2,400
9 Robert Gsellman RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $6,500 P $5,500
Team Averages — 0.295 0.165 29.3% 0.286 — — — —

Elite Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Cleveland
kansascitymlb Edinson Volquez clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -167 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.343 9 32.9% 16.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.299 14 38.3% 17.2%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.340 12 30.3% 16.6% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.367 21 32.7% 17.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Edinson Volquez
edinson-volquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $4,700
FPPG: 22.9 FPPG: 10.2
Pitcher Rating: 39.6 Pitcher Rank: 28
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 84.8 4.78 7.81 15.4% 8.1% 8.3% 44.6% 25.7% 35.9%
2016 31 95.6 4.61 5.40 16.3% 8.3% 8.5% 51.9% 28.1% 31.6%
2015 33 99.9 4.35 3.55 18.2% 8.5% 9.5% 46.0% 32.9% 30.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.32 — K%: 17.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.313
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.52 — K%: 17.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Volquez can’t seem to get out of his prolonged slump. Over the last month of play, he has a 7.81 ERA (4.78 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of only 15.4%. He has always induced a high ground ball rate, but he has given up a lot more hard contact in his recent starts. He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog against the Indians, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,200
FPPG: 25.7 FPPG: 12.5
Pitcher Rating: 62.7 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 73.0 3.84 9.92 19.0% 3.8% 10.6% 51.7% 33.3% 34.4%
2016 26 90.2 4.18 4.75 17.1% 3.1% 7.6% 43.4% 35.9% 35.0%
2015 10 94.9 3.46 3.02 22.7% 3.2% 9.4% 37.5% 46.2% 33.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.29 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.18 — K%: 17.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308

Everyone is going to see that the Indians are large favorites at home and that Tomlin is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. This will lead to a higher ownership than it should, which for me is an opportunity to capitalize on that by targeting some Royals’ hitters. Tomlin has a low swinging strike rate and he gives up a ton of hard contact. For me, this is one of the easiest fades on the board, even though Kansas City has struggled offensively this season.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals come into tonight’s game with the tenth lowest implied team total on the board. While that doesn’t give us a reason to be overly optimistic, I’m higher on this matchup than most. Josh Tomlin is a low strikeout pitcher that has some extreme reverse-splits. On the season, he has allowed a .367 wOBA and 21 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.291 0.092 16.9% 0.385 OF $2,900 OF $4,600
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.280 0.094 28.9% 0.347 2B $2,900 2B/OF $4,100
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.353 0.173 37.0% 0.355 1B $3,300 1B $4,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.323 0.201 43.7% 0.448 1B $3,100 1B/OF $4,300
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.303 0.175 34.9% 0.209 C $3,000 C $3,500
6 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.301 0.163 35.7% 0.185 OF $2,500 OF $3,700
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.297 0.088 20.2% 0.386 SS $2,300 SS $4,200
8 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.296 0.129 30.0% 0.160 3B $2,800 3B $3,100
9 Hunter Dozier RIGHT 0.176 0.000 0.0% 0.333 3B $3,000
Team Averages — 0.291 0.124 27.5% 0.312 — — — —

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Jarrod Dyson, Whit Merrifield, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians are one of the best offensive teams in baseball against right-handed pitching and they draw one of the most exploitable matchups in the slate. They currently have the fourth highest run projection overall. In addition to being in bad form, Edinson Volquez has allowed a .343 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.368 0.266 38.3% 0.380 1B $3,600 1B $5,000
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.352 0.199 38.3% 0.311 2B $3,600 2B $5,200
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.357 0.141 26.1% 0.269 SS $3,400 SS $4,900
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.351 0.258 36.0% 0.365 1B $3,600 1B $4,600
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.349 0.139 25.3% 0.351 OF $4,000 3B/OF $4,700
6 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.302 0.171 24.1% 0.216 OF $2,400 OF $4,100
7 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.384 0.244 40.6% 0.320 OF $2,900 OF $4,400
8 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.282 0.117 29.3% 0.281 OF $2,800 OF $4,100
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.245 0.105 25.0% 0.268 C $2,500 C $3,100
Team Averages — 0.332 0.182 31.4% 0.307 — — — —

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Mike Napoli

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda tampabaymlb Drew Smyly
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -111 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.346 9 36.6% 27.9% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.328 7 30.7% 28.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.327 15 30.9% 25.6% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.324 24 29.8% 21.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,500
FPPG: 29.0 FPPG: 15.3
Pitcher Rating: 88.4 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.4 3.27 5.25 28.9% 7.7% 15.3% 45.3% 25.0% 39.1%
2016 29 94.4 3.42 4.94 26.7% 6.7% 14.2% 45.9% 31.5% 33.3%
2015 27 94.4 3.09 4.37 23.4% 3.1% 11.9% 48.2% 29.9% 30.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.47 — K%: 26.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.86 — K%: 23.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Pineda continues to puzzle those of us that believe in ERA estimators and advanced pitching stats. Despite having a SIERA below 3.50 in each of the last two seasons, he continues to give up a ton of runs. On paper, he should eventually see some positive regression, as a 3.42 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 26.7% is nothing to scoff at. I’ve been lighting money on fire by rostering him this season and I might as well give it another go tonight. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Rays, who have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Pineda is worth a look here, but only in tournaments.

Drew Smyly
drew-smyly-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 27.9 FPPG: 14.5
Pitcher Rating: 79.5 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 97.8 4.58 5.67 21.7% 7.8% 9.8% 28.4% 56.8% 29.6%
2016 28 96.8 4.12 4.98 23.0% 6.7% 10.6% 30.9% 49.7% 30.0%
2015 12 94.7 3.25 3.10 28.0% 7.3% 11.4% 36.8% 44.3% 31.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.29 — K%: 27.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.57 — K%: 21.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.338

Smyly always brings upside to the table, but he hasn’t been in the best of form recently. In his last five starts, he has a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 21.7%. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher that has allowed 31 home runs in 28 starts this season. While the Yankees have struggled against southpaws as a whole, they have the 11th highest team wOBA in the last month of play. They are also one of the most difficult teams to strikeout. If I’m targeting a pitcher in this game, it will be Pineda.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees see a negative ballpark shift tonight playing in the somewhat pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. They come into the game with the third lowest implied team total on the board, as they square off against Drew Smyly. While I won’t have a ton of exposure to the Yankees, I do like the right-handed hitters in this lineup as one-off targets. In 2016, Smyly has allowed 24 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.297 0.087 22.7% 0.325 OF $3,300 OF $3,500
2 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.296 0.037 30.4% 0.209 3B $2,400 3B/SS $2,500
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.273 0.286 45.5% 0.334 C $3,900 C $4,800
4 Billy Butler RIGHT 0.309 0.128 28.9% 0.333 1B $2,500 1B $3,200
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.354 0.151 23.3% 0.271 SS $3,200 SS $3,100
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.291 0.147 28.6% 0.363 C $2,900 C $3,500
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.309 0.083 29.0% 0.327 3B $2,600 3B $2,900
8 Mason Williams LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.351 OF $2,500
9 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.304 0.083 27.7% 0.228 1B $2,000 1B/OF $2,800
Team Averages — 0.270 0.111 26.2% 0.305 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Billy Butler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have quietly become a top ten offense against right-handed pitching. They are ranked fourth in team ISO and they have the eighth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. I see this as a boom or bust scenario, as I could see them getting to Michael Pineda. However, I could also see Pineda having a big game. I will probably limit my exposure to both and take some of each side in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.346 0.179 36.4% 0.325 2B $3,000 2B $3,500
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.323 0.173 31.1% 0.442 OF $3,900 OF $4,300
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.365 0.265 38.0% 0.325 3B $3,500 3B $4,400
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.338 0.256 35.8% 0.179 SS $3,200 1B/SS $3,600
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.321 0.249 30.3% 0.398 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
6 Richie Shaffer RIGHT 0.422 0.357 44.4% 0.344 1B $2,300 1B/3B $2,600
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.210 0.056 28.9% 0.236 OF $2,100 OF $2,300
8 Alexei Ramirez RIGHT 0.241 0.091 22.2% 0.345 SS $2,000 SS $2,400
9 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.223 0.128 31.8% 0.105 C $2,200 C $2,100
Team Averages — 0.310 0.195 33.2% 0.300 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson, Richie Shaffer

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious