MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 6th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-06 17:28:39

Baltimore at LA Dodgers – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					LA Dodgers
			Kevin Gausman					Bud Norris
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -120					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.277	9	25.5%	6.1%	SP vs. Left	0.374	13	19.6%	10.5%
SP vs. Right	0.360	22	18.6%	5.4%	SP vs. Right	0.314	8	20.2%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kevin Gausman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		26.9	FPPG:		14.5
					Pitcher Rating:		64.1	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	6	100.7	3.92	4.24	20.5%	4.6%	9.8%	41.7%	31.5%	33.0%
2016	14	101.8	3.84	3.97	21.8%	5.2%	10.6%	43.5%	34.6%	29.9%
2015	17	110.4	3.69	4.25	21.9%	6.2%	10.9%	44.4%	38.1%	27.4%

Gausman just quietly goes about his business. In 14 starts this season, he has a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.8% and a walk rate of 5.2%. He certainly has better numbers than a guy like Sonny Gray, who we talked about on page one. Gausman is one of the few pitchers that actually benefits from playing on the road in this situation. He moves to a better ballpark for pitchers and he is facing a National League offense. I expect his ownership to be very low, which makes him a nice GPP play.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Bud Norris
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		16.6	FPPG:		8.5
					Pitcher Rating:		70.3	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	94.8	2.65	1.78	30.7%	4.4%	12.7%	53.5%	26.8%	28.8%
2016	11	117.0	4.16	3.89	21.1%	9.0%	9.4%	49.1%	29.2%	30.6%
2015	11	133.0	4.17	6.72	18.8%	8.2%	9.6%	43.4%	33.7%	36.9%

Norris has come out of nowhere over the month of play. In five starts, he has a 2.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.7% and a walk rate of 4.4%. He draws a favorable matchup in terms of potential strikeouts against the Orioles, as they have the tenth highest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. At his price, Norris is arguably the best value play in the early slate. The best part is that he allows you to roster a ton of players from the Reds/Cubs game.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have the third lowest team total on the board today. They haven’t played all that well on their road trip and they won’t be able to use the DH today against the Dodgers. Their matchup against Bud Norris looks fine on paper, but he has been a completely different pitcher over the last two seasons. I don’t mind using a hitter or two here as a one-off in a GPP, but I will be avoiding the Orioles in cash games.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.201 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.12 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.63 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.340	0.212	0.387	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.410	0.145	0.500	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.388	0.242	0.361	SS	$4,100	3B/SS	$4,500
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.395	0.324	0.384	1B	$3,400	1B	$5,000
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.341	0.197	0.361	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.340	0.177	0.297	C	$2,900	C	$3,700
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.371	0.233	0.437	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,500
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.262	0.114	0.241	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,800
9	Kevin Gausman	RIGHT				P	$8,400	P	$8,600
	Team Averages	—	0.356	0.206	0.371	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis

Stackability – NONE

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are favorites today, but they still have the eighth lowest team total on the board. They draw a mediocre matchup against Kevin Gausman, who has some serious reverse-splits. Over the last two seasons, Gausman has allowed a .360 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while holding lefties to a .277 wOBA.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.24 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.305	0.134	0.263	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,200
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.406	0.244	0.493	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,600
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.368	0.202	0.337	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,700
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.349	0.191	0.344	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,200
5	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.349	0.219	0.257	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
6	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.307	0.110	0.282	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$2,700
7	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.312	0.146	0.438	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500
8	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.322	0.190	0.376	C	$2,700	C	$3,100
9	Bud Norris	RIGHT	0.266	0.143	0.000	P	$7,100	P	$6,000
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.175	0.310	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Trayce Turner

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Washington
			Matt Garza					Tanner Roark
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -178					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.364	11	14.2%	8.9%	SP vs. Left	0.319	12	16.3%	8.5%
SP vs. Right	0.351	12	16.5%	7.9%	SP vs. Right	0.305	12	19.5%	4.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Garza
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		23.0	FPPG:		10.1
					Pitcher Rating:		34.5	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	4	85.3	4.81	3.74	13.9%	6.9%	5.9%	50.7%	30.7%	38.0%
2016	4	85.3	4.80	3.74	13.9%	6.9%	5.9%	50.7%	30.7%	38.0%
2015	25	95.7	4.68	5.63	15.6%	8.6%	7.8%	45.0%	32.9%	33.0%

Garza will be making his fifth start of the season. In his last 29 major league starts, he has a SIERA close to 4.70 with a strikeout rate around 15%. Those aren’t exactly the type of numbers that we are looking for from our pitcher in daily fantasy. He is an easy fade today on the road against the Nationals, who have two of the best left-handed hitters in baseball.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tanner Roark
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,500
					FPPG:		34.1	FPPG:		17.8
					Pitcher Rating:		77.0	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	6	96.0	3.88	3.38	20.4%	5.3%	8.7%	48.1%	29.6%	25.0%
2016	17	101.6	3.95	2.93	21.0%	7.7%	8.5%	53.0%	24.8%	22.3%
2015	12	150.0	4.16	4.38	15.0%	5.6%	7.1%	47.8%	30.6%	26.3%

If you aren’t paying up for Jacob deGrom and you don’t want to take a chance on Bud Norris, Roark feels like the safest mid-range option in the early slate. He has pitched well this season, posting a 3.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, who are ranked below the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a below-average matchup against Tanner Roark, they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and they struggle to hit right-handed pitching as a team. There isn’t a ton to like here, especially considering the fact that they have one of the lowest team totals on the board.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.9% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.99 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.80 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.333	0.112	0.310	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,000
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.308	0.128	0.315	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.359	0.205	0.400	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,900
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.350	0.165	0.238	C	$3,100	C	$3,400
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.325	0.241	0.382	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,600
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.312	0.182	0.317	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
7	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.314	0.136	0.328	3B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,100
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.262	0.068	0.250	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,200
9	Matt Garza	RIGHT	0.120	0.000	0.000	P	$6,000	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.298	0.137	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals are a sneaky offense to target, both in cash games and GPPs. Everyone is going to be paying attention to the game in Wrigley, which should result in the Nationals’ hitters being under-owned in all league formats. They draw a great matchup against Matt Garza, who has allowed a .350+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.70 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.300	0.072	0.267	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.283	0.125	0.363	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.442	0.308	0.389	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,300
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.374	0.219	0.345	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,000
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.319	0.157	0.455	C	$3,900	C	$4,400
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.284	0.161	0.221	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,300
7	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.311	0.132	0.385	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,300
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.313	0.180	0.560	SS	$3,200	SS	$5,200
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.127	0.043	0.389	P	$9,000	P	$10,500
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.155	0.375	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					Toronto
			Ian Kennedy					Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -170					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.345	28	24.6%	8.7%	SP vs. Left	0.322	7	16.3%	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.331	23	23.8%	6.5%	SP vs. Right	0.304	5	17.4%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ian Kennedy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$9,100
					FPPG:		31.6	FPPG:		16.5
					Pitcher Rating:		52.5	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	5	97.6	4.06	5.40	23.3%	6.7%	8.8%	33.8%	51.3%	46.3%
2016	16	100.0	4.14	4.04	23.7%	8.2%	10.0%	33.3%	48.2%	37.3%
2015	30	97.0	3.61	4.28	24.4%	7.3%	10.3%	38.5%	38.7%	35.2%

Kennedy has a high strikeout rate, but he gives up a lot of runs as well. In 16 starts this season, he has a 4.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.7%. I typically like to avoid taking fly-ball pitchers in the Rogers Centre and that will be the case again tonight. Kennedy has given up 51 home runs over the last two seasons and we know that the Blue Jays’ lineup is full of batters that could potentially take him deep.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marcus Stroman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		26.1	FPPG:		12.2
					Pitcher Rating:		67.6	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	88.8	3.72	5.86	17.7%	5.7%	8.6%	57.0%	18.3%	34.0%
2016	17	96.6	4.01	5.08	16.6%	6.9%	8.5%	59.0%	20.6%	33.1%
2015	4	93.3	3.28	1.67	17.5%	5.8%	7.2%	64.1%	17.9%	21.8%

Stroman is coming off of his best start in quite a while, but that game was interesting thanks to a strike zone that was one of the largest that I’ve ever seen. Outside of that start, Stroman has had a rough season, posting a 5.08 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.6%. The Royals present a decent matchup for the elite ground ball pitcher, but I don’t see Stroman as an SP1 tonight. He is worth a look in GPPs or as a cheap SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals weren’t able to get much going against R.A. Dickey last night and things won’t be any easier tonight. They have the ninth lowest team total on the board, as they square off against Marcus Stroman, who has one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball. The left-handed batters here are in play, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.130 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.04 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.330	0.165	0.280	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.302	0.112	0.230	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,600
3	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.359	0.226	0.638	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,800
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.374	0.180	0.310	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,500
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.335	0.199	0.150	C	$3,000	C	$3,300
6	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.315	0.158	0.205	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.306	0.127	0.364	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,400
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.269	0.061	0.373	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.297	0.112	0.359	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.149	0.323	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Alex Gordon, Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

The Blue Jays are one of the top teams to stack in the evening slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Ian Kennedy, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed 51 home runs over the last two seasons. Additionally, Kennedy has allowed a .345 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters during that stretch.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.0% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.89 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.91 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.302	0.096	0.314	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.395	0.268	0.505	3B	$4,200	3B	$5,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.386	0.278	0.440	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,000
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.350	0.200	0.268	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.308	0.176	0.323	C	$2,600	C	$3,200
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.328	0.182	0.457	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900
7	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.331	0.227	0.201	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,200
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.306	0.136	0.251	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.366	0.197	0.332	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,700
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.196	0.343	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Russel Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Tampa Bay
			Jered Weaver					Drew Smyly
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -152					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.343	22	13.3%	6.1%	SP vs. Left	0.279	4	36.7%	5.0%
SP vs. Right	0.346	22	13.3%	4.9%	SP vs. Right	0.330	26	24.8%	6.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jered Weaver
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,800
					FPPG:		21.5	FPPG:		9.3
					Pitcher Rating:		31.8	Pitcher Rank:		28
L30 Days	5	95.0	6.00	6.23	10.5%	7.5%	7.2%	30.6%	50.9%	34.9%
2016	16	93.1	5.42	5.51	13.1%	6.3%	8.4%	29.8%	47.5%	35.0%
2015	26	94.2	4.88	4.64	13.5%	4.9%	8.3%	34.4%	46.5%	30.2%

Weaver has a low walk rate, but that’s about all he has going for him at this stage of his career. In 16 starts this season, he has a 5.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.1%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a hard hit contact rate of 35%. I always love targeting hitters against him, even in pitcher-friendly ballparks like Tropicana Field. My hope is that the low total will scare some people off of the Rays’ offense. Either way, Weaver should be avoided tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Smyly
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		29.1	FPPG:		15.8
					Pitcher Rating:		82.8	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	102.4	3.30	6.53	28.4%	6.0%	12.1%	36.6%	42.7%	31.0%
2016	16	98.9	3.56	5.33	26.7%	5.9%	11.8%	33.1%	47.9%	31.0%
2015	12	94.7	3.25	3.10	28.0%	7.3%	11.4%	36.8%	44.3%	31.6%

Smyly has given up quite a few runs over the last month of play, but some of that can be attributed to bad luck. His indicators all look great, as he boasts a 3.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.7%. All that tells me is that we should jump on Smyly now before his price jumps up too high. The Angels aren’t exactly a great matchup, but Smyly is a large favorite at home in a game that features a low over/under. He is one of the best values on the board tonight.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels draw a difficult matchup tonight against Drew Smyly, who is expected to produce better results in the second half of the season. Over the course of the last two seasons, Smyly has allowed a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters though, so you can certainly give Mike Trout a look in both cash games and GPPs.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.325 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.157 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 15.9% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.40 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.20 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.364	0.126	0.402	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,400
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.316	0.164	0.301	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,600
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.414	0.243	0.542	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,400
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.331	0.262	0.439	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,400
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.291	0.132	0.450	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,900
6	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.278	0.065	0.270	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,200
7	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.337	0.273	0.185	3B	$2,400	3B/OF	$4,000
8	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.617	0.647	0.356	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
9	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.260	0.057	0.349	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.356	0.219	0.366	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays come into tonight’s game with the eighth highest team total on the board. They draw one of the best possible matchups, as Jered Weaver has allowed a .343 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .346 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Additionally, Weaver has given up 44 home runs during that stretch.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.9% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.02 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.80 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.324	0.110	0.322	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.338	0.199	0.359	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,500
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.319	0.184	0.287	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,800
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.315	0.180	0.295	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.291	0.121	0.257	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
6	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.317	0.174	0.300	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400
7	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.347	0.271	0.353	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
8	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.303	0.169	0.382	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.319	0.190	0.222	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.178	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison, Brandon Guyer, Steven Souza, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Texas at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Boston
			Martin Perez					Steven Wright
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -155					10.5
SP vs. Left	0.229	1	22.1%	11.0%	SP vs. Left	0.272	6	17.4%	9.2%
SP vs. Right	0.338	12	10.5%	8.3%	SP vs. Right	0.305	12	19.1%	9.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Martin Perez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$5,100
					FPPG:		25.4	FPPG:		11.7
					Pitcher Rating:		24.6	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	5	96.6	5.80	3.73	7.7%	9.2%	5.8%	50.5%	27.6%	35.2%
2016	17	96.5	5.31	3.39	11.8%	10.2%	7.1%	54.3%	26.2%	31.9%
2015	14	86.8	4.06	4.46	14.2%	7.1%	7.5%	59.9%	22.1%	22.7%

Perez continues to be one of the biggest surprises in the first half of the season. Despite having one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, he owns a 3.39 ERA in his first 17 starts. It’s only a matter of time before the wheels come off the tracks, though. His SIERA is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA and his .270 BABIP is not sustainable for a pitcher with such a high ground ball rate.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Steven Wright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		37.9	FPPG:		20.1
					Pitcher Rating:		62.3	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	5	102.8	4.47	2.70	16.0%	7.6%	9.1%	54.3%	25.7%	32.7%
2016	16	107.5	4.56	2.42	19.5%	9.4%	10.7%	46.8%	32.5%	27.9%
2015	9	130.9	4.60	4.09	16.8%	8.7%	9.3%	43.2%	43.2%	33.9%

Wright comes into tonight’s game as a sizable favorite against the Rangers. He is always a unique case because as a knuckleball pitcher, he can throw 120 pitches without breaking a sweat. He may give up some runs in the process, but he typically strikes quite a few batters out along the way. I don’t love his matchup against the Rangers, but still like Wright as a contrarian GPP play here.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are ranked at or above the league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest team total on the board. Their matchup against Steven Wright doesn’t look great on paper, but their run production has to come from somewhere. It also helps that they are playing in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.90 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.93 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.385	0.211	0.394	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.312	0.163	0.461	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,600
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.356	0.181	0.282	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.308	0.140	0.354	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,800
5	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.354	0.153	0.403	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,300
6	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.326	0.216	0.300	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,200
7	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.433	0.203	0.314	2B	$2,700	1B/2B	$3,600
8	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.282	0.080	0.299	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.313	0.203	0.266	C	$2,100	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.172	0.341	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – GPP

Boston

The Red Sox come into tonight’s game with the second highest team total on the board. As I mentioned above, it’s only a matter of time before Martin Perez gets blasted. He has gotten too lucky for too long. The Red Sox could be the team to finally get to Perez, as they are ranked fifth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. All of the right-handed hitters (as well as David Ortiz) are in play here.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.164 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.8% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.65 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.57 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.345	0.194	0.367	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,500
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.346	0.151	0.369	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,700
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.388	0.113	0.308	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,900
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.310	0.186	0.444	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,100
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.349	0.222	0.507	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,900
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.355	0.175	0.329	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700
7	Bryce Brentz	RIGHT	0.357	0.267	0.355	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,400
8	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.347	0.236	0.344	3B	$2,900	1B/3B	$4,700
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.248	0.077	0.496	C	$2,700	C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.338	0.180	0.391	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 6th - Page Two

Baltimore at LA Dodgers – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis

Stackability – NONE

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Trayce Turner

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Alex Gordon, Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Russel Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller, Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison, Brandon Guyer, Steven Souza, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Texas at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – David Ortiz, Bryce Brentz

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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