MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-07 02:45:29

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Detroit at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Detroit					Cleveland
			Michael Fulmer					Josh Tomlin
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -120					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0	17.8%	10.4%	SP vs. Left	0.255	14	17.2%	2.2%
SP vs. Right	0.287	6	30.3%	7.2%	SP vs. Right	0.329	18	20.3%	3.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:
					FPPG:		38.9	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		65.4	Pitcher Rank:		9
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	89.0	4.34	0.62	22.8%	10.5%	12.8%	47.9%	33.8%	28.8%
2016	12	94.6	3.88	2.17	24.4%	8.7%	11.7%	48.9%	31.7%	29.3%

Fulmer continues to pitch well in his rookie season. In 12 starts, he has a 2.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.4%. His BABIP of .253 and his left on-base percentage of 86.8% may not be sustainable, but his peripheral statistics are still above average. He checks into today’s game as a small underdog against the Indians in Cleveland. I don’t talk you out of Fulmer here, but the Indians are ranked ninth in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Josh Tomlin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:
					FPPG:		32.3	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		60.5	Pitcher Rank:		14
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	100.2	4.20	2.62	16.7%	2.2%	6.0%	40.4%	35.8%	27.0%
2016	15	92.7	4.27	3.21	16.5%	2.6%	6.6%	40.7%	37.5%	33.0%
2015	10	94.9	3.46	3.02	22.7%	3.2%	9.4%	37.5%	46.2%	33.2%

Tomlin continues to pitch better than his peripheral statistics would suggest. His ERA is a full run lower than his SIERA, largely in thanks to a .259 BABIP and a left on-base percentage of 81.9%. The biggest difference between Fulmer and Tomlin is that Fulmer has a high strikeout rate. Tomlin doesn’t have the best velocity and he is generating a very low swinging strike rate of 16.5%. With his reverse-splits, I’m not a fan of his matchup against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have a better matchup than their team total would indicate. Josh Tomlin is a fly-ball pitcher with reverse-splits. That bodes well for Detroit, as their lineup is loaded with potent right-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, Tomlin has held left-handed hitters to a .255 wOBA, while allowing a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (6 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (23 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.88 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.13 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland

The Indians draw a mediocre matchup against Michael Fulmer. While it is going to be tough for Fulmer to maintain the current pace that he is on, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA this season. If you put the splits aside and just look at the implied team total, the Indians are in an average spot here. The good news for Cleveland is that they have six batters with a .360+ wOBA over the last 14 days of play.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (9 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.189 (5 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (15 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.82 (10 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.37 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – NONE

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Atlanta					Philadelphia
			Tyrell Jenkins					Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -142					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.417	1	0.0%	17.7%	SP vs. Left	0.353	16	17.8%	9.0%
SP vs. Right	0.390	1	21.4%	10.7%	SP vs. Right	0.318	22	21.9%	4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyrell Jenkins
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		7.0	FPPG:		2.6
					Pitcher Rating:		49.6	Pitcher Rank:		22
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	0	0.0	5.44	5.79	13.3%	13.3%	3.8%	48.4%	29.0%	27.3%
2016	0	0.0	5.44	5.79	13.3%	13.3%	3.8%	48.4%	29.0%	27.3%

Jenkins will be making his first major league start today against the Phillies. He has pitched in four games this season, but all of his appearances have been out of the bullpen. He has never been a high strikeout pitcher, posting a 3.50 FIP with a strikeout rate of 16.2% in nine minor league starts this season. The Phillies may not be the most explosive offense in baseball, but with limited strikeout upside, the risk outweighs the potential reward for Jenkins.

Jeremy Hellickson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$9,200
					FPPG:		29.8	FPPG:		15.5
					Pitcher Rating:		60.2	Pitcher Rank:		15
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	95.0	4.58	4.65	16.4%	6.3%	9.9%	42.6%	31.9%	26.8%
2016	17	92.9	3.93	4.06	21.9%	6.1%	11.8%	42.2%	33.3%	29.5%
2015	27	91.8	4.14	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%

Hellickson hasn’t been in the best form over the last month of play, but he is still having a decent season overall. In 17 starts, he owns a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9% and a walk rate of 6.1%. He draws a favorable matchup today against the Braves, who are ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. I could certainly see Hellickson pitching well here, but as we have seen time and time again, you never really want to trust Hellickson in cash games. Fire him up as a GPP play, but look elsewhere in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves do not hit right-handed pitching well as a team. Despite an exploitable matchup against Jeremy Hellickson in a decent hitter’s park, Atlanta has the fourth lowest implied run total on the board today. That doesn’t mean that we can’t target a single hitter or two, but Braves’ stacks may be out of the equation. Over the last two seasons, Hellickson has allowed a .353 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

• Braves Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.284 (30 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.112 (30 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (11 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.40 (30 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.25 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Jace Peterson, Ender Inciarte

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

The Phillies have been hitting home runs left and right over the last few games. That’s usually not their calling card, but we might as well ride the streak while we can. They draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Tyrell Jenkins, who is making his first career major league start. Jenkins is a right-handed pitcher with a very low strikeout rate and the Phillies have the eighth highest team total on the board.

• Phillies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (25 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (16 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (17 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.56 (29 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.75 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Cody Asche

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos, Maikel Franco

Stackability – GPP

Miami at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Miami					NY Mets
			Justin Nicolino					Jacob deGrom
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -203					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.299	2	13.1%	4.6%	SP vs. Left	0.280	15	25.6%	4.9%
SP vs. Right	0.351	12	7.8%	6.6%	SP vs. Right	0.235	8	27.2%	5.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Nicolino
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		16.5	FPPG:		6.4
					Pitcher Rating:		30.2	Pitcher Rank:		29
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	3	76.3	4.03	8.22	13.3%	2.7%	7.9%	53.2%	22.6%	34.9%
2016	11	83.6	5.22	5.34	10.5%	5.6%	4.9%	44.5%	32.6%	36.5%
2015	12	87.3	5.59	4.01	7.6%	6.6%	5.1%	44.4%	37.5%	30.2%

My favorite pitchers to pick on are ones that have a low strikeout rate and that give up a lot of fly balls. Nicolino fits the bill, as he has a 10.5% strikeout rate on the season with a fly-ball rate of 32.6%. He checks into this game as one of the largest underdogs on the board. Even though the Mets have struggled offensively over the last month, they should be able to score some runs in this matchup. There isn’t enough upside with Nicolino to warrant consideration.

Jacob deGrom
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$10,000
					FPPG:		30.2	FPPG:		16.8
					Pitcher Rating:		95.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	99.0	2.64	2.61	30.1%	3.3%	9.1%	50.0%	26.9%	32.1%
2016	14	96.6	3.54	2.62	24.3%	5.8%	10.6%	47.2%	29.9%	32.9%
2015	30	99.2	2.99	2.54	27.3%	5.1%	12.7%	44.4%	34.7%	26.3%

Given the lack of pitching options in the early slate, I expect deGrom to be the chalk of all chalk. He is going to be a tough fade in cash games, although you can always make a case for fading a highly owned pitcher in tournaments. DeGrom has been in great form recently, posting a 2.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.1% over his last five starts. He draws a decent matchup against the Marlins, who are ranked 12th in team wOBA and 28th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins draw the toughest matchup on the board today and it comes as no surprise that they have the second lowest run projection of the 30 teams in action. Jacob deGrom has not only been in great form recently, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons.

• Marlins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.322 (12 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.134 (28 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.7% (6 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.22 (20 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.16 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

The Mets are ranked below the major league average in every statistical category against left-handed pitching, but I like their matchup against Justin Nicolino. As I mentioned above, he is a fly-ball pitcher with a very low strikeout rate. Over the last two seasons, Nicolino has allowed a .351 wOBA and 12 home runs to right-handed hitters. Red-hot Yoenis Cespedes should be licking his chops in this matchup.

• Mets Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (21 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.164 (16 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 25.6% (30 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.85 (28 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.34 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes (DK), Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores

Stackability – GPP

Oakland at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Oakland					Minnesota
			Sonny Gray					Ervin Santana
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN -108					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.274	11	20.8%	7.6%	SP vs. Left	0.330	11	13.7%	9.3%
SP vs. Right	0.300	18	18.5%	7.2%	SP vs. Right	0.317	12	21.2%	5.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$5,900
					FPPG:		22.5	FPPG:		10.6
					Pitcher Rating:		61.3	Pitcher Rank:		12
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	91.8	3.74	4.42	17.3%	4.0%	7.6%	56.4%	24.8%	34.2%
2016	15	92.3	4.32	5.42	18.0%	8.1%	7.9%	54.4%	27.8%	33.5%
2015	31	99.3	3.80	2.73	20.3%	7.1%	9.7%	52.7%	30.7%	25.1%

We keep waiting for Gray to turn the corner, but maybe it’s just not going to happen this season. In 15 starts, he has a 4.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 8.1%. If you take the name away from the numbers, he becomes close to an auto-fade. The Twins may strikeout at a high clip, but I will not be hitching my wagon to this horse. Gray is a small underdog in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs.

Ervin Santana
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		22.0	FPPG:		10.8
					Pitcher Rating:		42.5	Pitcher Rank:		24
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	99.6	5.05	4.50	12.0%	4.0%	6.6%	41.0%	41.9%	34.3%
2016	15	93.8	4.70	4.50	16.8%	7.3%	8.7%	43.1%	36.8%	30.5%
2015	17	98.7	4.43	4.00	17.9%	7.9%	9.5%	40.9%	37.6%	28.1%

Santana hasn’t pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 5.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has a hard hit contact rate over 30%. The A’s may be one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but they have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors. The upside just isn’t there for Santana anymore and Vegas is expecting this to be a close, high-scoring game.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s are ranked 27th in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they have the 12th highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Ervin Santana and they see a small ballpark boost playing in Target Field. Over the last two seasons, Santana has allowed a .330 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .317 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Athletics Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.298 (27 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (27 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 18.1% (4 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.17 (23 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.45 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick

Secondary Plays – Coco Crisp, Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota

The Twins have one of the highest team totals in the early slate. Their matchup against Sonny Gray may not look that great on paper, but he hasn’t been the same pitcher this season. In addition to a lower strikeout rate, Gray has .308 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .375 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

• Twins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (24 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (21 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.2% (20 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.17 (22 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.55 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Stackability – GPP

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Cincinnati					Chicago Cubs
			Anthony DeSclafani					Adam Warren
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -175					11.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.341	14	18.9%	8.9%	SP vs. Left	0.275	4	16.4%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.297	5	19.3%	5.0%	SP vs. Right	0.300	10	20.6%	7.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony DeSclafani
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		33.2	FPPG:		17.0
					Pitcher Rating:		50.9	Pitcher Rank:		21
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	102.4	4.53	1.78	18.4%	7.2%	8.6%	41.4%	37.9%	26.7%
2016	5	102.4	4.52	1.78	18.4%	7.2%	8.6%	41.4%	37.9%	26.7%
2015	31	94.0	4.08	4.05	19.2%	7.0%	9.5%	45.1%	33.6%	31.4%

DeSclafani may have a 1.78 ERA this season, but regression should fix that shortly. His peripherals look like they tell a story that is closer to the actual pitcher that he is. In five starts, DeSclafani has a 4.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.4% and a walk rate of 7.2%. He draws one of the worst matchups on the board today, as he takes on the Cubs’ red-hot offense. To make matters worse, the wind is blowing out to center at Wrigley Field. It could be bombs away for both offenses in this game.

Adam Warren
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		5.1	FPPG:		2.3
					Pitcher Rating:		49.0	Pitcher Rank:		23
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	0	0.0	6.07	6.00	6.7%	10.0%	10.9%	44.0%	40.0%	40.0%
2016	0	0.0	5.10	4.56	16.2%	12.6%	10.3%	46.2%	38.5%	32.9%
2015	17	127.0	3.96	3.29	19.5%	7.3%	8.6%	45.2%	32.0%	24.5%

Warren may be a large favorite in this game, but he should not be on your radar in DFS. He hasn’t made a start since last season and he has struggled in his few appearances out of the bullpen this year. The Reds may not be the best offense in baseball, but they have some power in their lineup and the wind is blowing out to center field in Wrigley. This is the perfect game to stack if you are into that kind of thing.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are underdogs today, but they still have the third highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Adam Warren and the wind blowing out to center really helps their fantasy appeal. Wrigley Field is the one ballpark where wind impacts scoring more than anywhere else. Most people will be stacking the Cubs here, but I love a Reds’ stack just as much.

• Reds Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.296 (28 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (17 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (21 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.24 (18 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.07 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Brandon Phillips, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the highest run projection on the board today and it’s not really even close. They draw a favorable matchup against Anthony DeSclafani and they get to face him at home with the wind blowing straight out to center. I’ll be loading up on the Cubs’ hitters in all league formats, especially their third baseman. There are few things guaranteed in life – death, taxes, and Kris Bryant home runs against the Reds.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (6 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (10 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.9% (25 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.28 (2 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.93 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Miguel Montero, Javier Baez, Addison Russell

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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