MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 16th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Philadelphia at Baltimore – 12:05 PM ET
Philadelphia | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
Nick Pivetta | Andrew Cashner | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BAL-108 | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.365 | 0.429 | 29.3% | 8.6% | 18.5% | 41.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.383 | 0.393 | 27.9% | 11.3% | 25.8% | 31.7% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.252 | 0.254 | 19.2% | 3.6% | 32.5% | 45.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.341 | 0.409 | 35.5% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 44.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Nick Pivetta | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 17 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 26 | 4.32 | 6.02 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 43.8% | 35.5% | 15.9% | |
2018 | 8 | 3.53 | 4.15 | 25.6% | 6.1% | 43.4% | 24.6% | 17.3% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.00 | 9.00 | 26.7% | 10.0% | 33.3% | 31.6% | 15.8% |
This game was originally scheduled for last night, but it was rained out. Rain is in the forecast once again, but they have all day to wait it out. Pivetta has been a mixed bag so far this season. He’s had a couple of really good outings and a couple of really bad outings. With a move to the American League and a matchup against the Orioles in Camden Yards, he does offer some risk. The positive for Pivetta is that he has held righties to a .254 xwOBA with a 33% strikeout rate this season. The Orioles have no choice but to roll out a right-handed heavy lineup.
Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is an intriguing tournament play in the early slate.
Andrew Cashner | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $10,300 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 21 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 28 | 5.52 | 3.40 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 48.6% | 28.4% | 18.5% | |
2018 | 8 | 4.75 | 4.84 | 20.1% | 10.6% | 38.8% | 32.1% | 16.1% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.14 | 5.06 | 16.0% | 10.0% | 41.7% | 35.1% | 29.7% |
I said this yesterday and I’ll say it again today — Cashner is not a good pitcher. It’s amazing that the Orioles don’t have better options to roll out than Cashner and Chris Tillman, but I’m not complaining. I will just continue to stack against them, especially in this ballpark. In eight starts this season, Cashner owns a 4.75 SIERA with a walk rate of 11%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that doesn’t generate soft contact. He’s an easy fade against the Phillies in a home run-friendly ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: No cash will be won with Cashner.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Andrew Cashner has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons, but he ruined a lot of stacks in 2017. He pitched out of so many jams thanks to a high ground ball rate against right-handed hitters. He is no longer generating that high ground ball rate, so we can feel good about stacking against him. Cashner has allowed a .393 xwOBA to lefties and a .409 xwOBA to righties this season. As you can see from the Ballpark Ratings graph above, this is a hitter-friendly ballpark that really favors right-handed power.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.333 | 0.369 | 0.156 | 30.3% | 14.1% | 26.6% | 45.2% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,500 |
2 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.371 | 0.130 | 31.5% | 13.3% | 25.6% | 53.7% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,800 | LF | $7,500 |
3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.388 | 0.477 | 0.189 | 26.3% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 42.5% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,800 | IF/OF | $9,400 |
4 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.408 | 0.330 | 0.229 | 37.1% | 15.4% | 30.8% | 25.8% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,600 | IF/OF | $9,200 |
5 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.395 | 0.396 | 0.260 | 34.5% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 37.2% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $9,400 |
6 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.402 | 0.225 | 25.3% | 6.3% | 15.6% | 52.0% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,600 | 3B | $9,100 |
7 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.351 | 0.497 | 0.127 | 25.0% | 9.9% | 26.8% | 52.3% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,800 | LF | $5,600 |
8 | Scott Kingery | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.253 | 0.119 | 30.7% | 6.5% | 24.7% | 33.9% | SS | $2,300 | 3B/SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,400 |
9 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.356 | 0.136 | 38.2% | 4.3% | 45.7% | 58.8% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,800 |
Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana
Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, Nick Wiliams
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Baltimore
The Orioles look like a good stack on paper, but they aren’t exactly equipped to take advantage of a matchup against Nick Pivetta. For the season, Pivetta has allowed a .429 xwOBA to lefties, while holding righties to a .254 xwOBA. This doesn’t mean that we can’t play the likes of Trey Mancini and Manny Machado in tournaments, but I’m not as high on this offense as the betting markets. The best way to attack Pivetta is with lefties and I don’t feel great about Chris Davis or Pedro Alvarez.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.419 | 0.419 | 0.130 | 38.1% | 9.8% | 21.3% | 44.0% | OF | $3,400 | 1B/OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,500 |
2 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.321 | 0.228 | 39.2% | 2.3% | 21.1% | 39.6% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,500 |
3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.416 | 0.402 | 0.322 | 33.0% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 38.0% | SS | $4,900 | SS | $5,600 | 3B | $10,800 |
4 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.237 | 0.319 | 0.211 | 20.4% | 0.0% | 24.7% | 49.1% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,400 |
5 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.298 | 0.315 | 0.048 | 27.5% | 9.6% | 30.4% | 49.3% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,700 |
6 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.403 | 0.384 | 0.158 | 50.0% | 2.6% | 15.4% | 43.8% | OF | $3,200 | 1B | $3,800 | DH | $7,200 |
7 | Chance Sisco | LEFT | 0.273 | 0.288 | 0.119 | 35.0% | 6.7% | 36.0% | 51.3% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,300 |
8 | Pedro Alvarez | LEFT | 0.395 | 0.354 | 0.263 | 37.0% | 12.6% | 25.3% | 35.2% | 3B | $2,600 | 1B/3B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,200 |
9 | Jace Peterson | LEFT | 0.272 | 0.269 | 0.082 | 25.7% | 13.8% | 24.1% | 54.3% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/3B | $2,900 | 2B | $5,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Manny Machado, Pedro Alvarez
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET
Chicago White Sox | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||||||
Hector Santiago | Jameson Taillon | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
PIT-200 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.427 | 0.365 | 29.2% | 25.6% | 18.6% | 45.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.281 | 0.308 | 24.6% | 13.3% | 18.1% | 53.7% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.350 | 0.299 | 27.1% | 6.0% | 20.5% | 25.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.293 | 0.272 | 26.7% | 1.2% | 24.1% | 53.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Hector Santiago | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,100 | Salary: | $10,300 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 25 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 14 | 5.57 | 5.63 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 30.2% | 36.6% | 17.0% | |
2018 | 2 | 5.01 | 5.60 | 19.8% | 12.7% | 31.3% | 27.7% | 18.1% | |
L14 | 1 | 6.48 | 12.15 | 13.9% | 16.7% | 32.0% | 20.0% | 16.0% |
Santiago really struggled in 2017 and it hasn’t gotten any better here in 2018. He currently owns a 5.01 SIERA with a walk rate of 13%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. While he is pitching in a good ballpark, he is facing a low-strikeout offense in the Pirates. Santiago doesn’t offer enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs that he’s likely going to allow.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Santiago in all formats.
Jameson Taillon | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $14,500 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 25 | 4.24 | 4.44 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 47.3% | 29.6% | 22.1% | |
2018 | 8 | 3.89 | 4.08 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 53.5% | 25.6% | 22.2% | |
L14 | 3 | 4.37 | 2.57 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 51.2% | 21.4% | 23.8% |
Taillon was on his way to a nice bounce-back outing against the Giants, but was forced to leave the game after three innings with a finger injury. It sounds like it was a laceration, which could certainly open up again. Luckily, the combination of his cheap price and his matchup against the White Sox makes up for the risk. Taillon is a large favorite at home where he has pitched well throughout his career.
Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Taillon is one of the top pitchers of the early slate.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they lose the use of the DH in this series. In addition to having above-average ground ball and strikeout rates, Jameson Taillon has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 27% hard contact rate this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Yoan Moncada | SWITCH | 0.442 | 0.377 | 0.305 | 49.0% | 12.6% | 35.8% | 22.9% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $8,200 |
2 | Yolmer Sanchez | SWITCH | 0.338 | 0.281 | 0.188 | 32.2% | 1.9% | 15.0% | 46.4% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,300 |
3 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.436 | 0.386 | 0.215 | 38.3% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 42.6% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $8,500 |
4 | Nick Delmonico | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.355 | 0.090 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 19.6% | 42.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,100 | IF/OF | $5,800 |
5 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.291 | 0.271 | 41.0% | 4.8% | 31.7% | 48.7% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,700 |
6 | Daniel Palka | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.357 | 0.326 | 34.4% | 2.3% | 25.0% | 40.6% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
7 | Leury Garcia | SWITCH | 0.263 | 0.257 | 0.048 | 30.0% | 4.5% | 19.4% | 62.5% | 2B | $2,300 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,300 |
8 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.288 | 0.268 | 0.154 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 22.6% | 46.2% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,700 |
9 | Hector Santiago | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $5,100 | P | $10,300 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Pittsburgh
The Pirates have one of the best matchups of the early slate, but they have struggled as a whole against left-handed pitching. They have too many lefties in their lineup to consistently hit southpaws well. Luckily, Hector Santiago has struggled against batters from both sides of the plate. There are better ballparks for offensive production, but I have my eye on a couple of Pirates’ bats.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.223 | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 8.3% | 33.3% | 57.1% | OF | $2,100 | 2B/OF | $2,900 | IF/OF | $5,400 |
2 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.343 | 0.217 | 13.3% | 13.8% | 27.6% | 26.7% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,300 |
3 | Sean Rodriguez | RIGHT | 0.493 | 0.332 | 0.438 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/OF | $2,700 | 2B | $5,900 |
4 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.323 | 0.359 | 0.185 | 25.0% | 17.6% | 23.5% | 40.0% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,300 |
5 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.284 | 0.372 | 0.095 | 29.4% | 4.5% | 18.2% | 23.5% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,500 |
6 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.512 | 0.375 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 31.6% | 20.0% | C | $3,300 | C | $3,800 | C | $7,400 |
7 | Colin Moran | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.430 | 0.000 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 80.0% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,700 |
8 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.340 | 0.077 | 28.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 40.0% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $5,700 |
9 | Jameson Taillon | RIGHT | 0.102 | 0.249 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | P | $8,000 | P | $7,600 | P | $14,500 |
Elite Plays – Francisco Cervelli (DK)
Secondary Plays – Francisco Cervelli (FD), Sean Rodriguez, Josh Bell
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
Cleveland | Detroit | ||||||||||||||
Trevor Bauer | Ryan Carpenter | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CLE-210 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.263 | 0.270 | 38.0% | 7.0% | 29.0% | 47.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.241 | 0.413 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.292 | 0.337 | 40.9% | 12.3% | 22.6% | 47.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.541 | 0.505 | 20.0% | 13.3% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Trevor Bauer | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $12,800 | Salary: | $24,900 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 5 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 31 | 3.80 | 4.19 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 46.4% | 34.4% | 15.0% | |
2018 | 8 | 3.85 | 3.00 | 25.9% | 9.6% | 47.1% | 39.4% | 16.1% | |
L14 | 3 | 3.52 | 4.15 | 28.6% | 10.4% | 53.2% | 53.2% | 10.6% |
Bauer used to be under-priced and under-owned in DFS. While the latter remains true, he is no longer priced at a discount. He’s up to $9,300 on FanDuel and $12,800 on DraftKings. He certainly has talent, as evidenced by his 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 47%. Bauer has had some reverse-splits this season, but that’s likely due to the small sample. In 2017, he held righties to a .309 wOBA with a strikeout rate of 29%.
Quick Breakdown: Bauer is in a great spot today, but he’s so expensive that we don’t need to force him into our lineups.
Ryan Carpenter | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,400 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 25 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 1 | 4.74 | 7.36 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 0.0% | |
L14 | 0 | 6.20 | 0.00 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Carpenter will make his second start of the season today. In his last full season in the minors, he posted a 4.22 FIP with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 6%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that will have to face one of the best offenses in baseball in the Indians. Cleveland’s projected lineup has a .345 xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Carpenter in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
The Indians are one of the top stacks on the board once again. As a general rule of thumb, any decent offense facing the Tigers is viable to stack given how bad their starting rotation is. We don’t have a large enough sample size to look at the splits for Ryan Carpenter, but he’s a left-handed pitcher. It makes sense to load up on the right-handed bats from Cleveland.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.405 | 0.499 | 0.237 | 51.0% | 6.3% | 15.6% | 43.8% | SS | $5,000 | SS | $5,500 | SS | $10,600 |
2 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.406 | 0.098 | 28.2% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 43.6% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,000 |
3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.446 | 0.475 | 0.294 | 43.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 28.9% | 3B | $4,800 | 3B | $5,100 | IF/OF | $9,900 |
4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.396 | 0.196 | 37.5% | 13.2% | 26.4% | 28.1% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $9,500 |
5 | Brandon Guyer | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.282 | 0.233 | 31.4% | 10.4% | 16.7% | 37.1% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,900 | LF | $5,900 |
6 | Erik Gonzalez | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.348 | 0.083 | 42.9% | 14.3% | 35.7% | 57.1% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/SS | $3,400 | 2B | $6,800 |
7 | Greg Allen | SWITCH | 0.311 | 0.220 | 0.000 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,700 |
8 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.257 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 33.3% | 75.0% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,500 | C | $4,600 |
9 | Rajai Davis | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.259 | 0.000 | 46.4% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 46.4% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,700 | CF | $5,600 |
Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion
Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley, Brandon Guyer
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Detroit
The Tigers draw a difficult matchup against Trevor Bauer, who has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates. He has reverse-splits this season, but that could be due to a small sample size. He has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, which doesn’t bode well for a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mikie Mahtook | RIGHT | 0.233 | 0.315 | 0.095 | 15.2% | 8.3% | 22.9% | 33.3% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,500 |
2 | Pete Kozma | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.324 | 0.333 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 40.0% | SS | $2,700 | 2B/SS | $2,600 | SS | $4,700 |
3 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.347 | 0.152 | 46.4% | 5.8% | 23.1% | 34.5% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.373 | 0.335 | 0.120 | 48.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 39.3% | C | $2,300 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $6,000 |
5 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.343 | 0.076 | 32.5% | 5.9% | 16.8% | 40.3% | C | $2,600 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,400 |
6 | John Hicks | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.424 | 0.254 | 51.2% | 3.3% | 29.5% | 30.8% | C | $2,900 | 1B/C | $3,200 | C | $6,500 |
7 | JaCoby Jones | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.272 | 0.184 | 38.7% | 3.2% | 28.0% | 38.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,100 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
8 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.255 | 0.298 | 0.089 | 22.3% | 3.3% | 15.8% | 46.7% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $5,500 |
9 | Dixon Machado | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.283 | 0.084 | 37.1% | 6.0% | 16.4% | 41.6% | 2B | $2,200 | 2B | $2,700 | SS | $5,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
St. Louis at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET
St. Louis | Minnesota | ||||||||||||||
Miles Mikolas | Lance Lynn | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
STL-115 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.293 | 0.316 | 37.7% | 0.0% | 16.5% | 48.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.443 | 0.412 | 38.6% | 17.2% | 14.1% | 59.1% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.235 | 0.296 | 29.5% | 3.7% | 22.0% | 60.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.375 | 0.357 | 42.4% | 14.0% | 27.0% | 40.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Miles Mikolas | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $11,000 | Salary: | $21,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 6 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 7 | 3.35 | 2.51 | 18.9% | 1.6% | 53.5% | 34.3% | 19.2% | |
L14 | 2 | 2.96 | 0.66 | 15.1% | 1.9% | 61.4% | 34.1% | 15.9% |
Mikolas doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, but he has such good control that he is able to pitch deep into games and rack up fantasy points through innings pitched. In seven starts this season, he owns a 3.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 2%. He has a high ground ball rate and has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season. The issue here is the matchup and the ballpark. The Twins will roll out a left-handed heavy lineup and Mikolas feels a bit overpriced in this spot.
Quick Breakdown: Pitching is scarce in the early slate, but Mikolas feels too expensive in this matchup.
Lance Lynn | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $11,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 22 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 33 | 4.85 | 3.43 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 44.0% | 29.2% | 21.1% | |
2018 | 7 | 5.03 | 7.34 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 48.5% | 40.8% | 21.4% | |
L14 | 3 | 4.56 | 6.89 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 45.3% | 41.5% | 17.0% |
Lynn is not a pitcher that I’m going to roster anytime soon. He struggled in 2017 and it’s been more of the same this season. In seven starts, he has a 5.03 SIERA with a walk rate of 15% and a hard contact rate of 41%. Jose Berrios pitched well against the Cardinals last night, but he obviously has a lot more talent than Lynn, who should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Lynn doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
The Cardinals couldn’t get anything going offensively last night, but draw a better matchup today against Lance Lynn. He has a high walk rate, a high hard contact rate, and he has allowed a .412 xwOBA to lefties and a 357 xwOBA to righties this season. Matt Carpenter has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball this season. Eventually, those hard hit balls are going to find some gaps. I will keep playing him in all formats at this price.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tommy Pham | RIGHT | 0.413 | 0.466 | 0.230 | 42.2% | 16.3% | 22.1% | 43.8% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,000 | CF | $10,200 |
2 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.304 | 0.170 | 44.1% | 15.7% | 28.7% | 27.6% | 3B | $3,000 | 2B/3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,500 |
3 | Jose Martinez | RIGHT | 0.442 | 0.403 | 0.176 | 38.1% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 51.5% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.353 | 0.087 | 49.4% | 4.2% | 25.0% | 47.1% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,400 |
5 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.306 | 0.264 | 0.180 | 30.9% | 11.3% | 17.4% | 35.8% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,600 |
6 | Jedd Gyorko | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.352 | 0.129 | 33.3% | 15.8% | 26.3% | 38.1% | SS | $2,600 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,400 |
7 | Paul DeJong | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.376 | 0.214 | 42.7% | 5.7% | 30.3% | 28.0% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,800 |
8 | Carson Kelly | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.202 | 0.000 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 57.1% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,500 | C | $5,100 |
9 | Kolten Wong | LEFT | 0.275 | 0.282 | 0.147 | 29.3% | 9.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $5,900 |
Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter
Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna, Jedd Gyorko
Stackability – YELLOW
Minnesota
The Twins have a relatively high implied run total, but their matchup against Miles Mikolas is less than ideal. He owns a high ground ball rate, impeccable command, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. This is one of those spots where I will likely avoid the starting pitcher and the offense that he is facing. I don’t have a strong feel for either side of this matchup.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.418 | 0.402 | 0.096 | 39.3% | 16.7% | 12.7% | 48.9% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,900 |
2 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.296 | 0.183 | 31.4% | 7.0% | 19.0% | 39.0% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,100 |
3 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.326 | 0.176 | 44.2% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 41.9% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,300 |
4 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.374 | 0.262 | 37.0% | 8.0% | 20.4% | 24.7% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B/SS | $4,400 | SS | $8,500 |
5 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.400 | 0.268 | 35.9% | 4.3% | 17.1% | 35.2% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,300 |
6 | Mitch Garver | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.218 | 0.225 | 46.2% | 8.9% | 31.1% | 38.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
7 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.334 | 0.172 | 35.6% | 10.4% | 18.9% | 37.0% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
8 | Ehire Adrianza | SWITCH | 0.268 | 0.253 | 0.021 | 42.4% | 9.3% | 29.6% | 40.6% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $4,600 |
9 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.234 | 0.205 | 0.068 | 23.3% | 6.4% | 29.8% | 46.7% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $5,700 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar
Stackability – ORANGE
Toronto at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET
Toronto | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
J.A. Happ | Zack Wheeler | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TOR-108 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.187 | 0.242 | 20.0% | 2.1% | 34.0% | 53.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.335 | 36.8% | 11.5% | 26.2% | 50.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.372 | 0.357 | 33.7% | 8.3% | 27.6% | 48.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.316 | 0.333 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 52.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
J.A. Happ | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $17,500 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 7 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 25 | 4.11 | 3.53 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 46.9% | 26.7% | 20.3% | |
2018 | 8 | 3.17 | 4.80 | 29.2% | 6.8% | 49.6% | 30.3% | 16.0% | |
L14 | 2 | 5.78 | 10.00 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 53.1% | 37.5% | 6.3% |
Happ was shelled in each of his last two starts, but still owns a 3.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% on the season. I don’t see a decline in velocity or a change in his pitch selection, so I’m not exactly sure what happened in those two outings. He’ll look to bounce back against a Mets’ offense that has been awful against left-handed pitching. They knocked Jaime Garcia around, but that was very predictable. Happ is a much better pitcher and we have the chance to play him at a cheap price point.
Quick Breakdown: Happ is an elite play in all formats.
Zack Wheeler | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $15,100 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 18 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 27 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 27 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 17 | 4.64 | 5.21 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 47.5% | 32.8% | 18.3% | |
2018 | 6 | 4.33 | 5.03 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 51.5% | 26.7% | 23.8% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.68 | 6.75 | 17.9% | 10.7% | 57.9% | 27.5% | 27.5% |
Wheeler started the season off well, but has struggled ever since. He is still generating ground balls and soft contact, but the strikeout rate isn’t high enough to make up for his struggles against left-handed hitters. The good news is that he will face a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ offense today at home. While this is a matchup where Wheeler should succeed, I don’t trust him as far as I can throw him.
Quick Breakdown: I’ll gladly play Happ over Wheeler in this game.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays aren’t fully equipped to take advantage of Zach Wheeler and his splits against left-handed hitters. On the season, Wheeler has allowed a .335 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to lefties. Curtis Granderson and Justin Smoak are elite plays in all formats. Yangervis Solarte is also viable, but I would only include him in a full stack.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.364 | 0.377 | 0.208 | 38.6% | 19.6% | 30.4% | 34.1% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,700 |
2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.266 | 0.259 | 32.5% | 13.4% | 26.9% | 50.0% | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,200 |
3 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.361 | 0.363 | 0.223 | 32.0% | 9.5% | 19.0% | 36.0% | 3B | $3,200 | 2B/3B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,300 |
4 | Teoscar Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.448 | 0.392 | 0.303 | 47.5% | 3.8% | 22.5% | 33.9% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
5 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.389 | 0.336 | 0.183 | 36.8% | 15.2% | 26.3% | 33.3% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,400 |
6 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.404 | 0.358 | 0.219 | 37.2% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 38.4% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,300 |
7 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.361 | 0.254 | 35.3% | 11.1% | 24.7% | 52.9% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,800 |
8 | Richard Urena | SWITCH | 0.291 | 0.216 | 0.000 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 66.7% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,500 |
9 | J.A. Happ | LEFT | P | $8,600 | P | $9,300 | P | $17,500 |
Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak
Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez
Stackability – YELLOW
NY Mets
J.A. Happ was lit up in his last two starts, but he’s still not a pitcher that I want to target hitters against. It’s not like the Mets hit left-handed pitching well anyway. Their projected lineup has a .264 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate against southpaws. Outside of a Wilmer Flores one-off in tournaments, the Mets can be avoided.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Juan Lagares | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.157 | 0.000 | 31.6% | 11.1% | 18.5% | 68.4% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,600 |
2 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.312 | 0.373 | 0.143 | 35.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 41.9% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $3,800 | SS | $7,700 |
3 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.265 | 0.379 | 0.138 | 20.0% | 19.4% | 38.9% | 33.3% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,500 |
4 | Wilmer Flores | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.352 | 0.063 | 27.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 34.5% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B/3B | $3,000 | 3B | $5,700 |
5 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.252 | 0.346 | 0.091 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 20.0% | 34.6% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,300 |
6 | Devin Mesoraco | RIGHT | 0.238 | 0.258 | 0.067 | 30.8% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 53.8% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,600 | C | $4,800 |
7 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.072 | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 50.0% | SS | $2,000 | 3B/SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,700 |
8 | Zack Wheeler | RIGHT | 0.222 | 0.158 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | P | $7,000 | P | $8,000 | P | $15,100 |
9 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.399 | 0.315 | 0.154 | 33.3% | 3.7% | 18.5% | 28.6% | SS | $2,300 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.