NFL Pick'em Pool Week 16 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Big underdogs reigned supreme early this fall, which led to our worst start to a season ever in this article. However, we have hit our stride since Week 4, with our top confidence picks each performing exceptionally well during the last two months. Here are our top-ranked selections records since that point.
- Week 4: 8-1
- Week 5: 9-3
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 7-1
- Week 9: 10-1
- Week 10: 8-0
- Week 11: 6-2
- Week 12: 6-3
- Week 13: 7-0
- Week 14: 6-0
- Week 15: 8-1
This is my 4th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 288 games (62.9% SU). Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected over 60% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate.
We are locked in for Week 16 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 16 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2024 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and also follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 16 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 16 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. Detroit Lions
7. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Los Angeles Rams
9. Miami Dolphins
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
11. Arizona Cardinals
12. Tennessee Titans
13. Atlanta Falcons
14. Minnesota Vikings
15. Houston Texans
16. Los Angeles Chargers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy Week 16
Bills (vs. Patriots)
Buffalo’s defense is suffering from the injury bug at the moment, down multiple starters with CB Rasul Douglas, S Taylor Rapp, and S Damar Hamlin all recovering from ailments. All-Pro LB Matt Milano is also banged up. That being said, Josh Allen and company have scored over 40 points in consecutive weeks against playoff-caliber opponents – on the road, no less. The Bills aren’t at 100% health, but they are likely capable of beating the Patriots on most days if they have even 75% of their starters active. Allen, the current consensus favorite for MVP, should be able to lead his team to a victory in front of his home fans this weekend against a New England team that enters play on a 4-game losing streak.
Packers (vs. Saints)
Does anyone remember that New Orleans was setting NFL offensive records back in September? No? Well, that’s because they have lost their entire starting wide receiver corps and their most important short-yardage gadget since then. They have also lost their starting quarterback to injury, missed multiple starting offensive linemen for extended periods, and now appear to be without starting RB Alvin Kamara, who could be facing a season-ending groin injury. Jordan Love and the Packers are fresh off of a dominant primetime victory over the Seahawks in hostile territory. There is no such thing as a gimme, but this is as close to a free square as Love and the Packers will get in 2024.
Bengals (vs. Browns)
Cleveland will start Dorian Thompson-Robinson this weekend, which is absolutely a good thing for the Bengals and absolutely not a good thing for any Browns fans hoping to see their team beat their in-state rivals in Week 16. Thompson-Robinson completed 11 of 24 pass attempts for only 82 yards against Cincinnati earlier this season and never threw for more than 165 passing yards in any of his starts in 2023 either. It is highly doubtful that Cleveland will be able to keep pace with Cincinnati’s high-powered offensive attack.
Ravens (vs. Steelers)
Mike Tomlin has a way of consistently winning games that, on paper, his team should not win. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to see them pulling an upset here. WR George Pickens has been ruled out for his 3rd consecutive game, which is an extremely difficult injury to overcome for this Pittsburgh offense. Pickens is the team’s only reliable deep threat and accounted for a disproportionate amount of the Steelers’ offensive production during his time with QB Russell Wilson as the team’s starter. Lamar Jackson is playing at an elite level right now and is surrounded by a strong, healthy supporting cast. The Ravens might not cover the spread on Sunday, but they are positioned to earn a victory.
Buccaneers (vs. Cowboys)
Dallas handily defeated Carolina in Week 15, but much of that was a result of RB Rico Dowdle running for 149 yards on the ground against a truly awful Panthers run defense. The Cowboys are unlikely to find as many open running lanes on Sunday Night Football this weekend, battling a Tampa Bay team that is still firmly in the mix for a playoff position. Cooper Rush is still making too many poor decisions with the football and has struggled to generate consistent rapport with anyone not named CeeDee Lamb. Simply, the Buccaneers have more pathways to win in this matchup, even against a Cowboys team that has exceeded many pundits’ expectations following Dak Prescott getting ruled out for the season with an injury.
2024 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-5
- Week 5: 9-5
- Week 6: 12-2
- Week 7: 13-2
- Week 8: 9-7
- Week 9: 12-3
- Week 10: 9-5
- Week 11: 9-5
- Week 12: 6-7
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 9-4
- Week 15: 11-5
Image Credit: Getty Images