NFL Pick'em Pool Week 16 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Week 16 has the potential to be troublesome for pick’em and confidence pool participants, with only 3 home favorites of more than a field goal.
Since Week 10, we are 64-25 (71.9%) in this article! Overall, we have hit 14 of our 15 top-ranked selections in 2025 and 71.1% of our top-10 recommendations.
We went 14-1 in Week 11, hit 8 of our top-9 confidence selections in Week 12, finished 11-5 in Week 13, hit our top-4 recommendations in Week 15 and went 13-3 in Week 16!
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 86 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 16 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 16 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 16 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 16 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Houston Texans
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Denver Broncos
6. Detroit Lions
7. New Orleans Saints
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Seattle Seahawks
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Cincinnati Bengals
12. Los Angeles Chargers
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. New York Giants
15. Kansas City Chiefs
16. Arizona Cardinals
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 16
Bills (vs. Browns)
This ranking has less to do with the Bills than it does with the Browns. Since Shedeur Sanders made his debut, he ranks 34th in EPA/play and 36th in success rate among 36 quarterbacks to log 75+ snaps. Cleveland’s offensive line is currently missing multiple starters, and it wasn’t a top-tier unit to begin with in 2025.
Josh Allen has been the league’s best quarterback since Week 7, ranking 1st in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate. There is no reason to overthink anything here, in a matchup between one of the NFL’s best signal callers and a rookie who has struggled mightily during his first month of regular season action.
Texans (vs. Raiders)
Geno Smith was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and is expected to start this weekend against the Eagles, but whether it’s Smith or Kenny Pickett – this version of the Raiders simply doesn’t have a great chance to win on a weekly basis. Since Week 10, Smith ranks 34th in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate among 36 quarterbacks to log 75+ plays. In Week 15, Pickett had the worst EPA/play of any starting quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Texans are playing spirited football and have quietly won each of their last 6 contests. CJ Stroud has posted a positive EPA/play in each of his last 5 games and actually leads all quarterbacks (min. 75 plays) in EPA/play since Week 8.
Houston has the better quarterback, the better defense, and a coaching staff that seems to be pressing all the correct buttons of late. They should be able to find a way to win on Sunday against an inferior opponent.
49ers (vs. Colts)
Philip Rivers returning to the field from his couch (literally) after 3 days of practice to lead the Colts offense in Week 15 was a fun storyline for many people to follow, but the reality looked a lot like critics anticipated. Rivers did a good job avoiding negative plays and managing the offense, but he averaged only 2.0 air yards per attempt in the 1st half. The Colts ran the ball on each of their first 2 plays on their first 7 possessions against the Seahawks.
Simply, Rivers looked like a mid-40s quarterback, and the team treated him like such. Yes, Indianapolis almost pulled out a win in Seattle, but that had very little to do with their offense – which scored only 16 points.
Defensively, we should expect some regression from the Colts defense against a talented 49ers offense. Offensively, Rivers could find things challenging now that San Francisco having some tape to study on him after last week.
San Francisco should roll in this matchup.
Eagles (vs. Commanders)
Has Philadelphia’s offense finally figured something out? In Week 15, Jalen Hurts posted the best single-game EPA/play of his entire career. His 72.0% success rate also led all quarterbacks this past weekend.
In Week 16, he will get to face a Washington defense that has been ravaged by injuries this fall. Entering play, the Commanders pass defense ranks 32nd in EPA/play and 32nd in success rate since Week 8. Meanwhile, the Eagles have been a top-10 defense against the pass and the run in that span.
The Eagles are the better team in all 3 phases of this matchup. This shouldn’t be much of a sweat.
Broncos (vs. Jaguars)
The Jaguars have been surging during the last month of action, winning 5 consecutive games to put themselves in the conversation for the top seed in the AFC. That being said, they haven’t exactly played a gauntlet of opponents during their recent hot streak. Their victories have come against the injury-plagued Chargers, the injury-depleted Cardinals, the lowly Titans, the quarterback-less Colts, and the quarterback-less Jets.
In Week 16, they will have to face a Denver team that hasn’t lost since September. Bo Nix is playing the best football of his young career, and the team’s defense has been more than adequate enough to pull their weight, too.
We’ll likely see some negative regression from Trevor Lawrence and company in this battle of AFC contenders.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 14-1
- Week 12: 8-6
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 8-6
- Week 15: 13-3
Image Credit: Imagn