NHL Grind Down: Sunday, February 28th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2016-03-01 14:19:31

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks – 12:30 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Washington Capitals					Chicago Blackhawks
			Braden Holtby					Corey Crawford
			Record					Record
			45-11-4					38-20-5
Team Stats	3.28	2.30	23.30%	84.20%	Team Stats	2.79	2.40	22.50%	80.00%

In what many expect to be a preview of the Stanley Cup Finals, the NHL leading Washington Capitals will invade the United Center to battle the newly re-tooled defending Stanley Cup Champions. The matchup doesn’t get much tougher considering the Blackhawks have given up a ridiculously low 1.75 goals against per game on home ice and 22-8-2 record at the Verizon Center. With that said, Alex Ovechkin is always in play. While he’ll certainly see a heavy dose of Jonathan Toews, he scored his league leading 40th goal of the season against Minnesota on Friday night and has now tallied 12 goals and four assists in 12 games since the All-Star break. Barry Trotz shook things up once again and Ovechkin will now be joined by former linemates Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie both at full strength and on the Capitals #1 ranked power-play. It’s obviously an enormous boost to the fantasy value of Backstrom and Oshie, while putting a dent in to the value of both Evgeny Kuznetsov and Justin Williams. With that said, Kuznetsov actually leads the team in scoring with 63 points and owns a league best +30. He picked up a pair of assists against the Blackhawks in their first meeting and will likely draw the more favorable matchups tonight. On defense, the Capitals look to have lost John Carlson for the next few weeks with a lower-body injury, opening the door for Matt Niskanen to play as many minutes as he can handle and hop onto the point of that lethal #1 power-play unit. With Chicago owning a very mediocre 80.0% penalty kill, he looks like a fine option.

The Blackhawks have dropped each of their last two games, but made big news over the weekend by acquiring four new players in Andrew Ladd, Tomas Fleischmann, Dale Weise and Christian Ehrhoff. They’re officially “all in” on trying to win back-to-back Stanley Cups and will be looking to make a statement to the league tonight against the NHL leading Washington Capitals. Patrick Kane leads the league with 84 points in 63 games this season and is always a fine play. He’s posted a ridiculous 17 goals, 27 assists and +21 in 32 home games and will once gain be joined by Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov at even strength. Jonathan Toews may be on defensive duties in efforts to slow down Alex Ovechkin, but with Andrew Ladd now one his wing (along with the gritty Andrew Shaw), that line suddenly looks much more dangerous offensively. Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook continue to share the duties on the point of the Blackhawks’ top power-play unit and both players are tied with 38 points on the young season. The Capitals very solid penalty kill ruins some of their fantasy appeal, but they’re still fine options if they fit in your lineup.

Washington Capitals

CF%: 50.4, CP60: 110, 5×5 Differential: 38
Elite Options: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom
Secondary Options: T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov

Chicago Blackhawks

CF%: 50.9, CP60: 110.1, 5×5 Differential: -3
Elite Options: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Toews
Secondary Options: Andrew Ladd, Andrew Shaw, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith

St. Louis Blues at Carolina Hurricanes – 03:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
St. Louis Blues					Carolina Hurricanes
			Jake Allen					Cam Ward
			Record					Record
			35-20-9					28-25-10
Team Stats	2.41	2.39	21.40%	86.40%	Team Stats	2.43	2.62	17.10%	82.20%

The Blues were embarrassed in the Music City yesterday afternoon and won’t have much time to recover as they’ll travel to Raleigh for another afternoon matchup today. They’ve now dropped three straight games and are dealing with some key injuries to the likes of Alex Steen, Alex Pietrangelo and Brian Elliott. With Steen out of commission, Vladimir Tarasenko is easily the top option as he’s tallied 29 goals and 25 points in 62 games. He’ll be joined on the top line by Jaden Schwartz and Patrik Berglund. Rookie Robby Fabbri has posed three goals and five assists since the All-Star break and is an intriguing GPP target despite a -6 over his last three games. I won’t be avoiding the St. Louis forwards all together, but their recent poor play, playing in the second half of back-to-backs, and Carolina’s league low 26.5 shots allowed per game all make them hard to trust in cash games. On defense, Kevin Shattenkirk has been playing all the minutes he can handle with Pietrangelo out of commission. He’s tallied 31 points in 54 games and quarterbacks the top power-play unit. Alternatively, Colton Parayko has posted 26 points and a +19 in 61 games during his rookie season and has a blistering slapshot that he’s not shy about unloading from the point of the second power-play unit.

Tonight may be the last chance for the Hurricanes to prove to their front office that they’re going to fight for a playoff spot as Monday’s trade deadline is looming and I’m sure Ron Francis’ phone has been ringing off the hook over the past few days. The Hurricanes have faltered down the stretch, posting just a 4-4-2 record in their last ten games and slipping into sixth place in the very competitive Metrpolitan Division. They’ll finish up a home-stand against a St. Louis Blues team who they defeated 4-1 in their first meeting this season before hitting the road for seven of their next eight games. Jordan Staal had a terrible outing against Boston on Friday night (no points and a -4) but has easily been the Hurricane’s most consistent fantasy option lately. He’s posted five goals and seven assists in 12 games this month and leads the team with 39 points in 63 games. Alternatively, his brother Eric Staal has been eerily quiet lately, but has nine 20 goals seasons under his belt and teams up with Victor Rask and Elias Lindholm on the top forward line. On defense, Justin Faulk missed Friday’s game and remains uncertain for tonight’s game. If he’s unable to suit up, the 5th pick in last season’s NHL draft, Noah Hanifin, would take over the duties on the top power-play unit. He potted a power-play goal against Boston and remains very inexpensive across the industry.

St. Louis Blues

CF%: 51.3, CP60: 105.2, 5×5 Differential: 7
Elite Options: Vladimir Tarasenkp, Kevin Shattenkirk
Secondary Options: Jaden Schwartz, Patrik Berglund, David Backes, Colton Parayko

Carolina Hurricanes

CF%: 52.7, CP60: 106.7, 5×5 Differential: -13
Elite Options: Jordan Staal
Secondary Options: Eric Staal, Victor Rask, Jeff Skinner, Noah Hanifin

Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild – 03:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Florida Panthers					Minnesota Wild
			Roberto Luongo					Devan Dubnyk
			Record					Record
			35-18-8					27-25-10
Team Stats	2.69	2.30	16.60%	81.30%	Team Stats	2.60	2.52	18.60%	77.10%

Florida dropped a shootout decision in Columbus last night and will take their potentially tired lets to Minnesota tonight to face the Wild. With Jonathan Huberdeau still sidelined, Jussi Jokinen joins Aleksander Barkov and Jaromir Jagr on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit. Considering Minnesota’s ugly 77.1% penalty kill, that’s the line I’ll be focusing on from Florida. Jagr lead the team with 45 points in 58 games and puts a four game point streak on the line tonight. He’s tallied five goals and seven assists in 12 games this month and lit the lamp twice against Minnesota in their only previous meeting this season. Barkov has posted six goals and an assist in his last six games and the former 2nd overall draft pick has posted a solid 19 goals, 19 assists and +14 in 45 games. On defense, Aaaron Ekblad looks like a future Norris Trophy winner but has been fairly quiet lately. Alternatively, Brian Campbell has seized the reigns of the point spot on the #1 power-play unit and has posted a solid 25 points and +23 in 61 games this season.

Minnesota dropped their third straight game on Friday in Washington and this afternoon’s tilt against the Florida Panthers might be their last time to prove to their front office that they’re still in the playoff hunt. Unfortunately for them, they’ll face the Atlantic Division leading Florida Panthers who have allowed just 2.30 goals per game this season. With that said, they’ll be ecstatic to get Zach Parise back in uniform tonight where he’ll rejoin Mikko Koivu and Charlie Coyle on Minnesota’s top forward line. While they’re easily the most intriguing options, both Jason Pominville and Thomas Vanek have started to come alive offensively and have combined for eight goals and ten assists in 13 games since the all-star break. Vanek has thrived on home ice with 11 goals and 14 assists in 30 games at the Xcel Energy Center making him a nice GPP target. Ryan Suter simply remains too cheap to ignore on several sites and logs nearly 29 minutes of ice-time per game. He’s scored a goal and added eight assists in 13 games this month and facilitates things from the point of their top power-play unit. Alternatively, former first round pick Matt Dumba has flashed his offensive upside lately and owns four goals and five assists since the break.

Florida Panthers

CF%: 47.5, CP60: 96.9, 5×5 Differential: 20
Elite Options: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr
Secondary Options: Jussi Jokinen, Nick Bjugstad, Brian Campbell, Aaron Ekblad

Minnesota Wild

CF%: 48.1, CP60: 106.4, 5×5 Differential: 9
Elite Options: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter
Secondary Options: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek, Matt Dumba

Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins – 06:30 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Tampa Bay Lightning					Boston Bruins
			Ben Bishop					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			35-22-4					34-22-6
Team Stats	2.72	2.39	17.00%	83.00%	Team Stats	3.06	2.74	22.10%	82.60%

In a very important battle between two teams tied for second place in the Atlantic Division, the Tampa Bay Lightning will head to Bean Town to battle the Boston Bruins. The Lightning played a near flawless game in New Jersey on Friday night to earn their fifth straight victory and have posted an impressive 16-5-0 record over their last 21 games. Steven Stamkos lit the lamp for the fifth straight game on Friday night and has now tallied 27 points and 22 assists in 61 games this season. He’ll be joined by Alex Killorn and Ryan Callahan on the top line leaving Tyler Johnson to center Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat on a very, very dangerous second line. Boston looked to match the Stamkos line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand as much as possible in their last meeting, making the Johnson/Kucherov/Palat line looking like it has the better matchup in this one. On defense, Victor Hedman was forced out of Friday’s game in New Jersey but John Cooper has stated that he should be fine. Assuming he’s healthy, both him and Anton Stralman deserve your attention as both players log huge minutes and see plenty of run on the point of the Tampa power-play.

In what looks like it could easily be a preview of a first round playoff matchup in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Bruins really need two points tonight when they face the Tampa Bay Lightning. Boston has played very well in each of their last two games and now own a rock solid 8-4-0 record in their last 12 games. While they’ve oddly struggled on home-ice this season, Tampa Bay has also been far less dangerous away from home. Claude Julien can counter John Cooper with two very dangerous lines of his own. While Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand will likely be tasked with trying to slow down Steven Stamkos, they’re also fine options offensively. Bergeron leads the team with 53 points in 60 games and scored a goal and added an assist against Carolina on Friday. Marchand trails behind with 48 points in 57 games but has closed the gap substantially with 12 goals and four assists in 13 games since the break. He scored a goal and added an assist against Tampa the only other time he’s faced them this season and is a nice option if you can afford him. David Krejci, Loui Eriksson and David Pastrnak join forces on the second line that will be counted on to produce offensively tonight. Krejci owns a goal and two assists in the two prior meetings against Tampa this season and he and his linemates all seem to be a bit underpriced across the industry. Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug soak up nearly all of the available time on the power-play and are the top defensive options. However, with Tampa owning a solid 83% penalty kill, I’ll likely be reserving my exposure to them for GPP use only.

Tampa Bay Lightning

CF%: 52.4, CP60: 105.6, 5×5 Differential: 15
Elite Options: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman
Secondary Options: Ryan Callahan, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Anton Stralman

Boston Bruins

CF%: 48.4, CP60: 110.9, 5×5 Differential: 10
Elite Options: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Krejci
Secondary Options: Loui Eriksson, David Pastrnak, Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara

San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks – 07:00 PM EST

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
San Jose Sharks					Vancouver Canucks
			Martin Jones					Ryan Miller
			Record					Record
			32-22-6					24-24-12
Team Stats	2.92	2.68	22.50%	79.30%	Team Stats	2.38	2.80	17.60%	81.60%

The Sharks have made a strong push to get themselves back in the thick of things in the Pacific Division, but have seemingly lost some of their momemtum lately and have now picked up two consecutive disappointing losses. They’ll look to get back on track tonight as they head to Vancouver to face the Canucks for the first of three games over the next six days. Peter DeBoer has three very capable scoring lines at his disposal and with Vancouver allowing the second most shots against per game this season (31.7 SA/G), all three are in play tonight. Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton are tied for the team lead with 56 points and join forces on both the top forward line and #1 power-play unit. Thornton has exploded for five goals and ten assists in 12 games since the All-Star break and remains very reasonably priced across the industry. Alternatively, both Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau join those two on the top power-play unit and are dangerous offensive weapons, as well. Couture has turned things on lately as well, posting five goals and seven assists in 12 games this month. On defense, Brent Burns is a top-tier option as usual. Burnsie has posted 20 goals and 31 assists in 60 games and his 258 shots on goal is second in the NHL behind only Alex Ovechkin. Alternatively, Marc-Edouard Vlasic is in the midst of a career season and comes at a much more reasonable asking price. He scored his ninth goal of the season on Friday night and has now quietly amassed four goals and 19 assists in his last 28 games.

The Canucks have posted two straight wins, but it may be a little too little too late for them as they’re still eight points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Sedin twins continue to put up big offensive numbers and remain the only two relaible fantasy options on this Vancouver team. Daniel Sedin saw a five game scoring streak snapped on Thurday night but leads the charge with 52 points in 60 games. Meanwhile, Henrik Sedin has thrived on home-ice, tallying five goals and 22 assists in 28 games at Rogers Arena. Jannik Hansen joins those two on the top forward line and has chipped in three goals and an assist in the last four games. With Alex Edler still sidelined, Ben Hutton continues to see all the work he can handle on the Vancouver blue-line. He’s averaged over 23 minutes of ice-time per game since the Edler injury and has taken over as the point man on the top power-play unit. While he hasn’t produced much offensively just yet, he’s still dirt cheap across the industry and is an intriguing “punt” option on the blue-line.

San Jose Sharks

CF%: 50.9, CP60: 106.5, 5×5 Differential: 5
Elite Options: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, Brent Burns
Secondary Options: Patrick Marleau, Tomas Hertl, Marc-Edouard Vlasic

Vancouver Canucks

CF%: 47.2, CP60: 103.4, 5×5 Differential: -8
Elite Options: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin
Secondary Options: Jannik Hansen, Radim Vrbata, Dan Hamhuis