The Relief Brief: Monday, August 29th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-30 01:22:33

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Monday night features a 13-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Wade Miley has made five starts for the Orioles since being moved at the trade deadline. In those five starts, Miley has allowed 20 earned runs over 22 innings of work. For the season, Miley has allowed 22 home runs. Unfortunately for Miley, he will be facing the mashing Blue Jays. Miley has pitched beyond six innings just six times through 24 starts on the season, so he is unlikely to pitch beyond six tonight against the Jays in a positive run scoring environment. The Orioles bullpen has a 4.10 SIERA and a 1.52 HR/9 allowed over the last 30 days.

James Shields had one of his better starts of his recent White Sox tenure during his last time out against the Phillies in which he “only” allowed four runs and two home runs. Clearly, the expectations are low at this point. The ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all sit above five for Shields, so there is no hiding his ineffectiveness at this point. The White Sox bullpen continues to struggle mightily as they average two strikeouts per walk with a SIERA well above 4.00.

Rafael Montero worked exclusively as a starter in the minor leagues this season, and will get a crack at his first big league start since April of 2015 tonight. Montero had an ERA of 5.15 through 127.2 innings of minor league work (including 15 HR allowed), so he is certainly someone that DFS players will look to pick on tonight. The Mets bullpen figures to see plenty of action here however, and while they haven’t been as elite in the last 30 days, the Mets’ bullpen unit still owns the fifth best strikeout percentage in baseball for the season, along with a SIERA of 3.61. Take a Marlins bat or two if you must, but don’t expect a lot of damage to be done beyond the sixth inning.

Jose Fernandez got back on track in his last outing against the Royals. In that game, J-Fern struck out nine Royals over seven shutout innings. The Mets have been one of the hotter teams at the plate lately (thanks in part to a series against the Phillies), but I’m anticipating the run scoring to take a pause tonight against Fernandez. The Marlins bullpen has struggled over the last 30 days with the third worst K/BB rate (1.89) in baseball and a SIERA of 4.14. Expect J-Fern to have a longer leash in hopes of giving most of this struggling bullpen a night off.

Let’s take a look at Zach Davies last four outings.

Against the Rockies – 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks
Against the Cubs – 4 IP, 7 ER, 4 Ks
Against the Reds – 5 IP, 5 ER, 4 Ks
Against the Braves – 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 Ks

In four starts, we can see a small sample of remarkable inconsistency that actually stretches to all 23 of Davies’ starts on the season. Davies has pitched more than six innings on nine occasions this summer and has pitched five or fewer innings on seven other occasions. Against a difficult Cardinals lineup (when facing righties), I am not anticipating one of the better outings from Davies tonight. Expect to see at least four innings of bullpen work from Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers have the worst bullpen SIERA over the last 30 days at 4.42.

When I read “(player-popup)Steven Brault”:/players/steven-brault-35254’s name, I can’t help but exclaim “Steve Holt!” in my mind (arrested development fans only). Moving on…. Brault had a K/9 rate well over nine in the minor leagues this season, but that hasn’t fully carried over into the big leagues yet. Through two starts for the Pirates, Brault has a healthy eight strikeouts through ten plus innings pitched, but has also allowed 11 hits and five walks. Brault will face the Cubs tonight in Wrigley Field, which is a daunting task for an experienced pitcher, never mind a 24 year old making his third career big league start. I expect Brault to get through five innings or so before giving way to his bullpen. The Pirates bullpen has pitched admirably well in the last 30 days, including a strikeout percentage of 26.4, but I see these stats as an outlier more than a reason for optimism. This Pirates bullpen has blatant holes, and they are due for regression, which could come tonight against the Cubs.

Joe Musgrove has given up 13 earned runs and four home runs in his last two outings (a combined 9.1 innings pitched). The advanced statistics show a bit of bad luck for Joe, but there are concerns to be had nonetheless. Musgrove will take on the A’s tonight, in what will be his softest matchup of his big league career. The A’s struggle against righties and they generate little hard contact, which could set up nicely for Joe and the Astros bullpen. If you are a Musgrove hater, be sure to consider that the Astros have the best bullpen in baseball by just about every metric. It’s probably wise to stay away from A’s today. I just may. Rhyming.

Hey! That leads us to Jon Gray (rhyming continued). I need more sleep. Gray’s numbers have largely been solid over the course of 2016, including 142 strikeouts, an xFIP of 3.67 and a GB% of 44.6. With that said, Gray has struggled recently. In his last four starts, h has only pitched five innings or more on one occasion and has allowed four, six and eight earned runs over those four starts. Gray will face the Dodgers at home tonight. I actually like Gray’s chances of pitching well tonight, but he’ll be backed by a bullpen with a SIERA above four who has struggled over the last 30 days. Expect Gray to get some longer run tonight if he can pitch to his best ability.

Dan Straily has pitched six or more innings in nine of his last ten starts. Over that ten start stretch, Straily has not given up more than three earned runs in any of them. Advanced metrics suggest that Straily is due for regression thanks to a high xFIP and a low BAPIP. We all know how bad the Reds bullpen is by now, and their recent form has dropped off as well. If you think tonight might be the night for some Straily regression, the bullpen might aid your quest for a big GPP score.

My Top 4 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Cincinnati Reds

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Mariners recalled the ambidextrous Pat Venditte from AAA. Venditte has been fantastic in AAA recently, and will get a chance to showcase his stuff in the big leagues again soon.

Jeremy Jeffress is on the MLB restricted list following his arrest under suspicion of DWI. He will be unable to pitch for the foreseeable future.

3. Other Notes And Insights

In the last 30 days, the Marlins and the Rockies have blown eight saves each. If you don’t know, that is a lot.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

Legend