The Relief Brief: Tuesday, August 2nd

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-03 02:21:39

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Tuesday night features a full 15-game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Dylan Bundy has been featured in this article every time he’s taken the mound, and he has pitched admirably (he can thank me later). Over those two starts, Bundy has thrown ten and two thirds innings to go along with three earned runs and 13 strikeouts. While his numbers have been impressive, he hasn’t worked deep into games (nor has he in any of his minor league games on the season). The mediocre Orioles bullpen can be expected to take over some time around the sixth inning.

Carlos Carrasco will be looking to pick up his bullpen tonight after Danny Salazar got blown up last night. The Cleveland bullpen was forced to use five relievers in a blowout loss to the Twins last night. Carrasco picked up a win against the Twins back on July 15th (six and two thirds innings). If he pitches well, Francona may leave Carrasco in for a bit longer than usual in hopes of sparing his bullpen.

Dan Straily is a guy that we instinctively want to attack, but he has pitched better lately. In his last five starts, he has thrown six or more innings in all six appearances while allowing no more than three earned runs in any of those games. Tonight, he faces the Cardinals in a hitter friendly environment. The Cardinals have the 23rd ranked team wOBA over the last 14 days, but do have the second best team wOBA against righties on the season. If St. Louis can get to Straily early or drive up his pitch count, they will be facing the worst bullpen in baseball in a great run-scoring environment.

Jose Fernandez disappointed us last time out against the Cardinals. He did manage to strikeout nine, but only survived five innings while surrendering five earned runs (and two dongs). Tonight, he faces another challenging opponent in the Chicago Cubs. Nefi Ogando and Dustin McGowan both threw over 30 pitches last night, and the bullpen as a whole has worked a lot over the last week. If J-Fern struggles again, the Marlins ‘pen could be in for a long night.

Lance McCullers has dazzled in his last two starts (two wins, two earned runs, 14 innings and 20 strikeouts). Tonight, he’ll be looking to continue his run against the Blue Jays. Last night, the game between these same two teams went 14 innings, and many arms were used as a result of the lengthy game (six bullpen arms for the Astros). With the Houston ‘pen being fatigued, McCullers should be in line for a longer leash. Toronto owns the 20th ranked team wOBA over the last 14 days.

The Blue Jays also used six relievers in their 14-inning marathon last night. R.A. Dickey will be looking to provide some relief (pun sadly intended) to the fatigued bullpen. Dickey has managed to go for six or more innings in 14 of his 22 starts. In his last three starts however, Dickey has a combined 14.2 innings to go along with six dongs and 17 earned runs. If Dickey struggles tonight, it could spell trouble for a tired staff, but the Blue Jays unit as a whole owns the fifth best SIERA in baseball.

I don’t know if people really recognize how solid Jon Gray has been this season. He has gone six straight starts (including three at home in Colorado) with six or more innings (seven or more in three straight) and with three earned runs or less. He also has 39 strikeouts over that stretch. Pitching in Coors is never an easy task, but Gray continues to induce a strong 46.3 ground ball percentage, which works in his favor in any park (but especially Coors). The Colorado bullpen is among the worst statistically, but they’ll be fresh tonight and may not have to work a whole lot.

Robbie Ray does two things at high rate (that I know of). He strikes out a lot of batters (11.19 per nine) and he allows a lot of runs (4.70 ERA). In Ray’s defense, his SIERA and xFIP look better than his ERA, about a full run better in fact. The last time that Ray threw fewer than five innings was back on June 6th (nine starts ago). He’ll be looking to string together another deep outing tonight against the Nationals. Unfortunately for Ray, the Nats have the fifth best wOBA and the top ranked ISO against lefties in all of baseball. This Diamondbacks bullpen coughed up six earned runs last night against these same Nationals.

David Price worked eight scoreless innings in his last start. Tonight, he’ll face the Mariners in Seattle. Price faced the Mariners in Boston back on June 19th and put up a line of eight innings, one earned run and seven strikeouts. Craig Kimbrel returned for the Red Sox in last nights’ game and picked up the save. Unfortunately, he also threw over 20 pitches and may not be available tonight. As a whole, the Red Sox ‘pen has been beaten down by injury, but has held things together. Now the bullpen is getting healthy and stronger, and isn’t a unit that we should be looking to pick on.

My Top Bullpen 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Baltimore Orioles

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

There was a lot of movement at the trade deadline yesterday, particularly among relief pitching! I’ll cover the trades that impacted relievers.

Fernando Abad was traded from the Twins to the Red Sox. Abad has been dominant against lefties this season and should be a nice addition to the ‘pen for Boston. The Red Sox also activated Craig Kimbrel off of the 15-day DL.

Will Smith was traded from Milwaukee to the San Francisco Giants. It’s a nice get for the Giants. Smith had been a reliable option (though not overpowering) for the Brew Crew.

The Blue Jays traded for Scott Feldman from the Astros (and he promptly took a loss against his former employer).

The Dodgers acquired Jesse Chavez from the Blue Jays. Chavez can offer some length out of the bullpen.

The Cubs acquired Joe Smith from the Angels. Smith hasn’t been great this season, but has the ability to be a solid set-up man or a seventh inning arm.

The Rangers slightly improved their bullpen by acquiring Jeremy Jeffress (and Jonathan Lucroy) from the Brewers.

The Pirates acquired Antonio Bastardo from the Mets. Bastardo has struggled this season, but has the ability to turn it around.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Among qualified relievers, Andrew Miller ranks first in SIERA with a 1.19 mark. He also owns a 44.3 strikeout percentage. Filthy.

Tyler Lyons of the St. Louis Cardinals has thrown 48 innings on the season. Over those 48 innings, he has allowed a hard contact percentage of 44.1 including a HR/FB rate of 26.9% to righties. That number is (mostly) sure to regress.

Tyler Lyons has thrown 138 innings against right-handed hitters in his career. Righties have a HR/FB rate of 17.3% over that sample size (still a massive number).

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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