The Relief Brief: Wednesday, August 17th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-18 02:21:22

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Wednesday features a semi split slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights in the evening slate. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

David Price has allowed one or more home runs in more than two thirds of his starts this season, including three straight starts with a home run allowed. Price has managed to consistently work deep into games, even with the disappointing HR total. Craig Kimbrel nailed down a save for the second day in a row, and will likely be unavailable tonight along with Brad Ziegler. The Red Sox bullpen continues to struggle overall, as they coughed up a 3-0 lead last night before holding on for the 5-3 win.

Jake Thompson’s second career start was marginally better than the first, but he still struggled his way through five innings. Much of his struggles have stemmed from control issues inside and outside of the zone. It’s unlikely that he’ll see more than five innings here, and the Dodgers beat up on the Phillies pitching staff last night. This should be another good spot for Dodgers bats all game long.

Anthony Ranaudo had a surprisingly successful spot start against the Cubs earlier at the end of July, but was quickly sent back down to AAA. Ranaudo gets another shot at a spot start here tonight against Cleveland. Ranaudo is unlikely to repeat the performance that he put forth against the Cubs, and the White Sox bullpen has been brutal in the second half of the season (4.38 SIERA and 1.61 HR/9). Woof.

Jimmy Nelson has not exceeded five innings in any of his last five starts. In his last three starts, Nelson has allowed 15 earned runs through 9.1 innings. It is very likely that the Brewers bullpen will have to put in a hefty amount of work tonight against the hot hitting Cubs. The Brewers bullpen is coming off of a double-header in which they used seven different relievers. This is another appealing spot to attack.

After a rough start to July, Jon Lester has managed to turn things around in his last three starts. Lester has gone at least six innings in all three of those games, while allowing no more than two runs in any of the three. While the Cubs also played in a doubleheader yesterday, they received great starting pitching performances. Lester is a workhorse and should be able to work deep into this game. Joe Maddon may even give his number two starter a bit of a longer leash considering the double header yesterday.

Jon Niese returns to the Mets starting rotation for the first time since 2015. Niese has struggled mightily this season, largely due to a HR/FB rate over 21%. Niese had good moments for the Pirates this season, but was ultimately done in by the HR troubles and an inability to work deep into games. I don’t expect Niese to go deep in this one either, as he hasn’t started a game since July 17th against Washington. While you may be tempted to take bats against Niese, remember that he won’t go very long here and that the Mets bullpen is elite in most every category in 2016.

Zach Godley has been used as a middle relief option for much of 2016, but will draw his seventh start of the season against the Mets tonight. Godley has worked between five and six innings in all of his previous starts, while allowing three earned runs or more in five of the six starts. This is an offensive friendly environment against an opponent that is fighting its way into the playoff race, and I expect Godley to struggle in this game. The Diamondbacks bullpen will relieve him somewhere around the fifth or sixth inning tonight, and they are unlikely to provide any actual relief. The Arizona bullpen has the second worst SIERA on the season and the absolute worst SIERA in the last 30 days (including a delightful 1.89 HR/9).

Cody Martin started 18 games in the minor leagues this season, but wasn’t much of a success at that level (3.93 ERA). Martin does possess high strikeout potential, but hasn’t exceeded fifty pitches since the end of May. It is possible that Martin goes out and gets through five innings, but that would be the best case scenario for the 26 year old righty. Expect the Mariners bullpen to take over in the second half of this game, and expect them to give up very little, as they have the third best SIERA and third best strikeout percentage in baseball this season.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Arizona Diamondbacks

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Yankees recalled Kirby Yates from AAA. The Yankees desperately need fresh arms after recent blowout losses and bullpen toll.

Koda Glover has been recalled by the Nationals. He’s a reliable arm and a fresh arm.

The Rockies recalled Christian Bergman from AAA. The long rain-delay yesterday meant that the bullpens for the Rockies and Nationals were forced to work hard from the third inning onward.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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