The Relief Brief: Wednesday, July 20th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-07-21 01:55:01

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

- Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen – Bad SP combined with elite bullpen – Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

- Call-ups & Expectations – Other Roster Movement (ie Clay Buchholz moving to bullpen)

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research. Now, let’s get to it.

Wednesday is a split slate, and we will only be covering the main slate (7:05pm ET), which features seven games. Since it is a short slate, I’m going to break each team down game by game. Typically, I will only highlight a handful of interesting situations, but this is the first ever Relief Brief article, so I will try to cover each situation and address the three main topics of this article! Go big or go home, right? Let’s get to it!

Orioles vs Yankees

Yovani Gallardo will get the call against the Yankees. Surprisingly, the Orioles bullpen has been mediocre with a bottom 10 SIERA. Aside from Zach Britton and Brad Brach, the Baltimore ‘pen has been plain old bad. Gallardo has had 10 starts, and has gone more than 5 innings just twice, and has not yet gone more than 6 innings on the season. Combine that with the fact that three Orioles combined to throw 72 pitches last night, and the Yankees might be in a very good spot against a bullpen in rough shape.

Michael Pineda draws the start for the Yankees. Unsurprisingly, the Yankee bullpen leads the majors with a fantastic 2.86 SIERA. As you can see in the chart below, Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances have some filthy numbers, including a combined 45.1% strikeout rate. Wow! Whenever possible, the plan is to go with Betances in the 7th, Miller in the 8th, and (ideally) Chapman for the save in the 9th, as is what happened on Monday night. None of those three pitched Tuesday, and should be rested and ready if needed. While the Orioles offense is certainly potent with the long ball, we can’t expect much damage to be done against such a strong bullpen.

Dodgers vs Nationals

Gio Gonzalez will start against the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Nationals bullpen is also elite, as it ranks in the top 5 in SIERA, HR/9 and strikeout percentage. The Nats have a great balance of skilled left handed and right handed relievers, which makes for some difficult match ups late in the game for oppositions.

The Dodgers will send out Bud Norris to face the Nationals. Oh hey, another very strong bullpen! It’s unlikely that our pal Bud will venture into the late innings in this one, even if he pitches well. He has hit the 7-inning mark (and gone no further) only three times on the season in 13 total starts. The Nationals should get a heavy dose of the Dodger bullpen, however, Jansen threw for the second straight day, and Liberatore both threw a good amount of pitches last night as well, which could leave one or both in need of rest.

Marlins vs Phillies

Wei-Yin Chen takes the hill in Philadelphia this evening. Chen hasn’t been a workhorse, but he is averaging just shy of 6 innings per start, and has a good chance of hitting that 6 inning mark against the aggressive swinging Phillies. The Marlins bullpen is a mixed bag. A.J. (Alejandro) Ramos has been lights out, as in 31 of 32 converted save opportunities with a 30% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the bullpen consists of other arms aside from Ramos. Wittgren, Barraclough, Phelps and Ellington (11 total innings pitched on the season) all have effective stuff, but the other half of the bullpen is mediocre at best. All options should be available to manager Don Mattingly with the exception of David Phelps (37 pitches last night). Bottom line, this is the Phillies we’re talking about here and not the Cubs or the Red Sox. Chen has a great chance to reach six innings, and we’re not looking to capitalize on a league average bullpen with Phillies bats.

Jeremy Hellickson will be on the mound to start the game against the Marlins. Hellickson is on an impressive run of 7 straight starts of at least 6 innings and 11 times in his last 12 starts. Since the break, the Phillies have played every day, but their starters have gone at least 6 innings in every start since the break. As for the bullpen, the Phillies unit ranks right around league average in just about every category, including SIERA and WHIP. As is the case with most of the Phillies roster, the bullpen features some young, developing talent. Edubray Ramos has carried over his minor league strikeout success into the majors, but is also allowing lots of hard contact versus right handed bats. Bottom line, there isn’t much here to try to capitalize on by specifically targeting Marlins bats against this league average bullpen. It is worth noting, however, that the Phillies bullpen is allowing the fourth most HR/9 in the league.

Brewers vs Pirates

Chase Anderson gets the call against the Pirates in Pittsburgh tonight. This game has bullpen written all over it (figuratively, of course). In Anderson’s 17 starts this season, he has exceeded six innings exactly twice. On the flip side, he has gone five innings or less twelve times on the season, including five straight in that department! With a bottom 10 SIERA, bottom 10 strikeout percentage and bottom 10 (as in, allowing the most) HR/9 innings allowed, this is looking like a spot to pay close attention to when selecting bats. Jeremy Jeffress has been a staple out of the bullpen in the closer role, and he’s had success by limiting hard contact (especially to right handed batters with only a 10.5% hard contact rate). It is interesting to note that Pittsburg holds a (26th ranked) hard contact rate of 28.9% against right handed pitchers (For perspective, the Red Sox lead that category at 34.4%). Milwaukee only has one healthy left handed reliever (Will Smith, getting jiggy with it). This looks like a sneaky spot to target Pirates left handed bats (granted, the options are slim).

Jeff Locke (my fellow New Hampshire native) is on the bump to face the Brewers. While Locke does hail from the greatest state in the union (a heavily biased opinion), he doesn’t have a lot else going for him. The Brew Crew are not a formidable offense, they do feature a few good bats when facing LHP. This could likely be another team relying on its bullpen tonight. As a whole, the Pirates bullpen has been poor, including a bottom five SIERA.

Red Sox vs Giants

Matt Cain takes the hill against the Red Sox. Cain has gone more than seven innings just once in the season and had been below six innings in more than half of his starts. The Giants bullpen as a whole owns a respectable 3.87 SIERA, which is nothing to fear or necessarily look to attack. Bottom line, Red Sox bats are firmly in play against the SFG bullpen that is currently looking to add relief pitching through the trade market before the deadline.

Drew Pomeranz will start for the Red Sox, facing off against the Giants. Both Boston and San Francisco had off days on Monday, so both bullpens are reasonably well rested. In spite of a slew of injuries to the ‘pen, the Red Sox relievers continue to perform admirably as one of the better groups in baseball. It’s a minus matchup all the way around for Giants bats, though Buster Posey is always in play against a left-handed starter, even with a plus bullpen behind him.

Koji Uehara has been placed on the 15 day disabled list. Noe Ramirez has been called up to take his place. Certainly a downgrade to the Red Sox bullpen, particularly in the late innings.

Padres vs Cardinals

Paul Clemens will get the start for the Padres. Clemens started two games in July, but has since sent to the bullpen. Here, he gets another chance to start. In his previous two starts, he went five innings each. The Padres feature a league average bullpen, but it is also a relatively tired unit. Several of the key arms have been used in two of the past three days, including Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer and Brad Hand. The Cardinals should see plenty of this fatigued bullpen in tonight’s matchup. Note that this is the second game of a double header, which could cause additional fatigue to the bullpen.

Jaime Garcia will take on the Padres tonight. Garcia has been up and down as of late, but seems to consistently get through at least five innings. The Cardinals bullpen is a perennial force, and while they’re not as dominant as in years past, they still own the ninth best SIERA and the sixth best WHIP. This group is well rested too, however, note that this is the second game of a double header, which could cause additional fatigue to the bullpen.

Angels vs. Rangers

Martin Perez gets the call against the Angels tonight. While Perez has been fairly efficient with his workload (averaging 6 IP per start), the Rangers bullpen has the second worst SIERA in baseball along with the fourth worst WHIP and second most HR/9 allowed. In fact, only Jake Diekman has a strikeout percentage above 25%. Not only that, but this is a relatively tired Rangers bullpen (considering we are just coming out of the All-Star Break). Darvish went 4.1 innings on Saturday, Hamels went eight on Sunday, Griffin lasted five on Monday, and Lohse only made it through 4.1 last night. This may be a bullpen to try to pick on with some of the usual suspects for the Angels. Some important numbers here – the Angels have the lowest K% vs LHP, which means they generate a lot of contact. Perez allows 34% hard contact to right handed bats. If the Angels can keep up their hot hitting, this may be a scenario where Perez is forced to exit early, leaving the fatigued bullpen of the Rangers in a potential blow-up spot.

Hector Santiago will start for the Angels tonight, and he has taken on the role of the ace of the staff (pardon me whilst I vomit). On the plus side, Santiago has gone at least six innings in six straight starts. On the downside, the Rangers have the ninth best WOBA vs LHP. Santiago has faced this same Rangers team three times on the season (6 innings and 2 ER at home – 5.2 innings and 4 ER at home – 2.1 innings and 5 ER in Texas). Tonight he faces the Rangers at home. The Angels feature another league average ‘pen. Jose Alvarez is the only active LHP out of the bullpen for the Angels, and he has made a living by generating lots of soft contact vs righties and lefties. Overall, Rangers right handed bats are firmly in play here for some dong upside.