The Relief Brief: Wednesday, July 27th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-07-28 01:18:23

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Wednesday features a split slate. I will be covering the eight game late slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Dylan Bundy will go for Baltimore tonight. Yesterday, Chris Tillman lasted only five innings, but a four-inning outing from Tyler Wilson saved the bullpen. That’s a very good thing, considering that Bundy is on the mound tonight. Bundy surprised me by lasting a whopping five innings last time out, which was his longest outing at any level. Bundy has promise, but he doesn’t seem to be a guy who is likely to pile up innings. He’ll do his best to get through five innings again before handing it off to his bullpen. The Orioles’ bullpen has been an underwhelming group (with the great exception of Zach Britton), but they are getting healthier and should be stronger over the final 60 games or so.

Gerrit Cole had one of his best starts of the season in his last time out against the Phillies. Tonight, he’ll face a different beast in the Mariners. Seattle has the 5th highest wOBA against righties on the season. Cole will have to work hard to put up a quality start in this game, and if he struggles and gives way to his bullpen earlier than expected, Seattle will be facing a bullpen with the 25th ranked SIERA and 25th ranked K%.

Do you remember earlier in the season when many wrote Adam Wainwright off for dead? Well, over his last 12 starts, he has gone six or more innings 11 times. During that span he has only allowed more than three runs two times (More on Wainwright below). The Cardinals are coming off of a double-header yesterday, but the bullpen didn’t suffer too much wear and tear thanks to decent outings from Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia. However, lefties Tyler Lyons and Kevin Siegrist both threw a good amount of pitches.

Anthony Ranaudo was expected to join the White Sox bullpen, but he will be asked to start tonight’s game against the Chicago Cubs. Over the last 14 days, the Cubs have a team wOBA of just .294 against righties. Compare that to their season-long team wOBA of .327 against righties. Maybe there is a glimmer of hope for Ranaudo tonight, but I doubt it. Miguel Gonzalez and James Shields have managed to hold Cubs bats to just two runs over 14 plus innings over the last two games. For that reason, some may look at box scores and recent performance and fade Cubs bats. Just remember that Ranaudo isn’t expected to go deep into this game and that the White Sox bullpen is among the worst in baseball in terms of SIERA and strikeout percentage.

Yu Darvish has been putting up some filthy strikeout numbers in his last two starts (and for most of his career). However, in nearly 90 major league starts, he has just two complete games. As is often the case, high strikeout pitchers end up throwing more pitches and as a result, don’t go deep into games as frequently. Yu (he told me that I can call him by his first name) has also struggled with his control at times, but tonight he faces an Oakland team that has the fifth lowest BB% vs righties on the season (and the fourth lowest K% vs righties on the season). While his K numbers may take a hit here, I expect Darvish to go at least six strong innings. The Rangers will be hoping for the same, as no lead is safe in the hands of their deplorable bullpen.

Sean Manaea went eight scoreless innings against the Rays in his last time out. Tonight, he’ll be pitching in a hitter friendly environment against an offense that is above average against lefties (but then again, so are the Rays). Manaea’s advanced stats are a mixed bag, but his xFIP is promising and he seems to be getting better as the season goes on, especially in terms of hard contact allowed (only 13.6% hard contact allowed vs the Rays and only 19.1% hard contact allowed vs the Astros two starts prior). The Athletics bullpen is right at league average and all arms should be available with the exception of Liam Hendriks (30 pitches last night).

Archie Bradley has 12 straight starts of at least five innings. In those 12 starts, he has only exceeded six innings one time. That’s impressive consistency, not that the numbers themselves are impressive. The Diamondbacks chewed through five relievers last night. This is a poor bullpen working behind a starting pitcher who is highly unlikely to throw more than six innings. The Brewers have been able to capitalize on similar situations the last two days (16 runs over those two games, including six against the bullpen). We could be in for more of the same tonight.

Danny Duffy now has five straight starts of more than six innings. He is limiting left-handed batters to an elite 19.1% hard contact rate. He will need to continue with more of the same tonight. The Angels absolutely pulverized Chris Young and Chien-Ming Wang last night (87 pitches total) for four earned runs each. The good news here is that aside from Drew Butera (a catcher), no other bullpen arms were used in the massacre. Duffy has been very good as mentioned, and the key arms out of the Royals bullpen should be fresh.

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Padres recalled lefty Buddy Baumann from AAA. While he’s only faced one batter in the majors this season, he has shown very good stuff in AAA through 20 plus innings.

Jonathan Papelbon has struggled mightily lately (two consecutive blown saves), and he may be forfeiting his closing duties soon, as the Nationals explore potential trade options to bring in a new closer.

The Blue Jays traded for Joaquin Benoit from the Mariners in exchange for recent DFA Drew Storen. Benoit has been reliable in a variety of roles throughout his career, but his numbers have been less than stellar in 2016.

Oakland recalled righty J.B. Wendelken. J.B.W. has struggled in his brief time in the majors this season.

The Cardinals placed Trevor Rosenthal on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder inflammation. He has struggled for most of 2016, and giving his shoulder/arm some rest may help him bounce back down the stretch.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Adam Wainwright has not given up a dong (HR) since the end of May. He has thrown over 50 innings since then.

Adam Wainwright is not, in fact, dead.

Don’t hesitate to ask any questions, and keep the feedback coming!

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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