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MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-05 01:49:46

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Detroit Baltimore
detroitmlb Justin Verlander baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-125 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.291 29.5% 9.7% 28.3% 30.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.326 33.7% 8.4% 21.5% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.307 33.8% 6.1% 23.2% 36.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.352 0.334 31.3% 7.0% 22.3% 47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.42 3.04 28.1% 6.3% 33.7% 28.9% 19.7%
2017 22 4.71 4.29 22.1% 10.5% 33.9% 36.0% 16.5%
L30 5 4.20 2.25 25.4% 9.7% 33.3% 29.9% 19.5%

We only had a single day game and one that started at 6:40 ET, so we will just jump right into the main slate, which features 13 games. Verlander hasn’t been in good form most of the year and I’m not buying into his 2.25 ERA in his last five starts. He SIERA is still high during that stretch and he has struggled with his command and hard contact all season. He checks into tonight’s game as an underdog against the Orioles, who are a significantly better offense against right-handed pitching than they are against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: We have a reverse-splits pitcher facing a right-handed heavy reverse-splits offense. Verlander can be avoided in all formats.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 23 4.64 5.37 20.4% 9.5% 43.4% 34.1% 18.4%
L30 5 3.22 4.55 30.0% 7.5% 52.1% 40.5% 17.6%

Gausman is similar to Justin Verlander in that he has struggled this season, although he’s different in that I’m actually buying into his recent form. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a ground ball rate of 52%. He has been throwing his split finger a lot more often since the All-Star break and so far, so good. He draws a boom or bust matchup tonight against the Tigers, who are ranked right around the major league average in team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. We’ve always known Gausman as a reverse-splits pitcher, but he’s actually been much more effective against righties this season, which bodes well for tonight’s matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman isn’t a core play for me, but I like his upside as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and get to face a pitcher that has allowed a .325+ xwOBA and a 31%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. The problem is that the Tigers’ offense is trending downward (nothing to play for), while Gausman is trending upward. Baseball can be a very streaky sport at times, which is why it’s important to look at season long statistics, as well as recent statistics. There are a few intriguing one-off plays in this Tigers’ lineup, but I will likely be underweight on them compared to the field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.304 0.310 0.120 33.9% 10.3% 12.5% 33.1% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.330 0.337 0.158 54.8% 10.9% 23.4% 57.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 LF $5,100
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.354 0.345 0.224 42.9% 11.8% 28.5% 37.2% OF $3,900 OF $5,200 LF $10,200
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.313 0.387 0.180 45.3% 10.1% 20.2% 41.5% 1B $3,400 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.291 0.335 0.138 45.8% 7.8% 25.7% 40.4% 3B $2,700 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.305 0.367 0.133 42.7% 8.4% 13.7% 40.1% C $2,700 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.357 0.332 0.136 32.6% 8.7% 20.6% 47.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.266 0.304 0.124 41.1% 7.4% 25.7% 38.3% C $2,500 C $4,000 C $7,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.286 0.249 0.106 30.3% 4.4% 14.4% 53.3% SS $2,800 SS $3,600 SS $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Jim Adduci, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles aren’t one of my favorite offenses in the slate, but we’ve seen Justin Verlander give up some huge outings to his opponents this season. That alone brings an Orioles’ stack into play for tournaments. They have a relatively high implied run total and they always have home run upside with all of the power bats in their lineup. In terms of splits, favor those that can bat from the right side of the plate. Since the start of last season, Verlander has allowed a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Oh, and play Adam Jones on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.328 0.307 0.179 31.7% 3.8% 17.2% 45.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.313 0.347 0.182 37.3% 9.2% 18.3% 42.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.375 0.319 0.231 32.8% 4.7% 20.1% 40.5% 2B $4,100 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.336 0.337 0.264 43.0% 13.2% 35.8% 32.1% 1B $3,400 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.399 0.350 0.261 34.0% 6.7% 24.3% 51.9% OF $3,200 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.325 0.308 0.176 45.1% 6.0% 32.7% 47.3% SS $2,700 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
7 Seth Smith LEFT 0.341 0.350 0.188 35.7% 9.1% 21.3% 42.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.315 0.320 0.170 34.4% 5.5% 25.4% 44.0% C $3,100 C $3,900 C $7,800
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.242 0.236 0.105 22.7% 2.0% 30.0% 40.6% OF $2,100 OF $2,500 RF $4,800

Elite Plays – Adam Jones (DK), Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones (FD & FDRFT), Jonathan Schoop, Chris Davis, Trey Mancini, Tim Beckham (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

San Diego Pittsburgh
sandiegomlb Travis Wood pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-175 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.240 0.289 28.5% 9.9% 18.1% 38.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.370 35.5% 3.6% 12.2% 45.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.364 0.334 34.9% 9.4% 17.5% 39.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.290 32.1% 3.7% 21.0% 55.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Travis Wood
travis-wood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 4.46 2.95 18.7% 9.5% 37.4% 37.2% 18.3%
2017 4 5.00 6.42 16.6% 9.7% 40.1% 27.2% 20.3%
L30 3 4.21 7.20 18.8% 3.1% 41.7% 26.5% 20.4%

Wood has not fared well as a starter this season and he didn’t pitch particularly well out of the bullpen either. He comes into tonight’s game as a massive underdog against the Pirates, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball this season. We have a bad pitcher in a low strikeout matchup; this one isn’t too complicated.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Wood in all formats.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 21 4.35 3.75 15.1% 3.1% 47.8% 33.0% 17.4%
L30 4 3.47 6.35 23.7% 3.1% 45.7% 38.6% 11.4%

You are probably going to laugh after you read these next few words, but Nova is one of my favorite pitchers in the slate. We’ll get to a few high priced arms in a bit, but I see this as a good slate to save on pitching and there are two in particular that I have my eye on. The first is Nova, who comes into tonight’s start in good form when you look at the advanced numbers. Over his last four starts, he has a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He pitches to contact and throws a lot of strikes, which leads to a lot of quick outs. It also leads to an ability to pitch deep into games. The knock on him this season has been the low strikeout rate, but a matchup against the Padres will solve that. I also like that he should have the platoon advantage in this matchup, likely facing at least five righties in the Padres’ lineup.

Quick Breakdown: I’m sure I’m in the minority on this one, but I see Nova as an elite play tonight. I will be targeting him in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

I’ve been avoiding the Padres for the better part of three months now. They don’t have a single batter in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .325 against right-handed pitching this season. They also have one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball. They are also facing a ground ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Give me all of the Ivan Nova shares tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.308 0.280 0.138 25.7% 3.8% 22.6% 40.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.372 0.323 0.118 28.2% 9.5% 21.9% 33.8% 2B $2,100 2B $2,500 SS $4,800
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.364 0.300 0.232 32.2% 4.0% 18.1% 42.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 2B $6,600
4 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.321 0.304 0.209 38.4% 9.0% 29.2% 38.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
5 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.336 0.314 0.179 30.9% 10.1% 11.8% 39.4% 3B $2,300 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
6 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.274 0.273 0.204 34.3% 4.2% 32.0% 41.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
7 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.335 0.300 0.146 29.2% 7.5% 20.7% 46.1% 3B $2,700 3B/OF $3,500 2B $6,800
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.311 0.273 0.256 35.2% 5.2% 29.9% 36.1% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Travis Wood LEFT 0.438 0.343 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $6,100 P $4,500 P $8,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are one of those offenses that seems to underperform in favorable matchups. It’s hard to use that information though, because a favorable matchup is always appealing. They draw another one tonight, as they square off against Travis Wood at home. In addition to his low strikeout rate and high walk rate, Wood has allowed a .334 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The one through five batters are all viable tonight. While I won’t be stacking the Pirates, I will be using them as one-offs and two-man stacks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.160 0.210 0.030 22.7% 2.9% 32.4% 47.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.366 0.312 0.193 31.9% 9.2% 14.3% 41.8% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.513 0.449 0.481 44.8% 19.4% 12.2% 32.8% OF $4,000 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.325 0.342 0.239 32.9% 9.1% 16.2% 54.8% 1B $3,500 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.388 0.386 0.138 38.8% 19.5% 20.7% 57.1% 3B $3,100 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.350 0.310 0.206 31.7% 5.6% 11.1% 55.0% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.292 0.305 0.113 36.6% 10.0% 20.0% 61.0% C $2,400 C $2,400 C $4,800
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.297 0.315 0.173 42.0% 10.9% 14.1% 52.9% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.067 0.088 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 56.3% 25.0% P $8,200 P $7,800 P $15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell, David Freese

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Cleveland
nyyankeesmlb Jaime Garcia clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-130 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.274 24.9% 4.7% 23.7% 49.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.329 35.8% 8.5% 23.7% 41.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.317 31.3% 9.0% 18.4% 57.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.331 31.1% 9.1% 21.2% 53.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia
jaime-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 4.67 20.2% 7.7% 56.7% 31.1% 18.6%
2017 19 4.50 4.29 18.3% 8.8% 55.0% 28.4% 22.1%
L30 4 3.88 4.05 20.7% 6.3% 55.0% 29.6% 21.0%

The Twins traded for Jaime Garcia then promptly traded him to the Yankees after only one start. He’s not a great pitcher by any means, but a high ground ball rate never hurts in a division that features four hitter-friendly ballparks. Garcia’s pinstripe debut will come tonight against the Indians and he enters the game as a small road underdog. The Indians typically aren’t an offense that we like to pick on, as they are ranked seventh in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: It doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with Garcia, especially in a difficult road start.

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.22 4.26 20.7% 8.6% 48.7% 31.9% 19.0%
2017 20 3.99 5.25 25.3% 9.1% 46.6% 35.9% 14.0%
L30 4 4.41 5.30 23.9% 11.4% 41.1% 28.6% 12.5%

Bauer may win the award for most inconsistent pitcher of the year. Unfortunately, that award doesn’t get you anything other than some tilt from DFS players. His advanced statistics suggest that he isn’t as bad as his 5.25 ERA, but he continues to give up a lot of hard contact. He’s an easy fade tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked third in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. I’m expecting this game to turn into a shootout and will be avoiding both of the starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer has more downside than upside in a start against the Yankees.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw a boom or bust matchup against Trevor Bauer, who has given up some big outings to his opponents this season. Even in a neutral ballpark, a Yankees’ stack has some appeal in tournaments. Since the start of last season, Bauer has allowed a .329+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. He has also given up a 36% hard contact rate to lefties. The Yankees seem to change up their lineup every night, but anyone batting in the top six spots is worth a look in a Yankees’ tonight. For cash games, I don’t see any of their hitters as musts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.365 0.349 0.221 35.1% 12.0% 18.8% 40.5% OF $4,000 OF $5,100 LF $9,900
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.320 0.354 0.247 46.3% 5.1% 25.6% 38.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.432 0.433 0.328 45.7% 14.9% 31.5% 37.5% OF $4,400 OF $5,100 RF $10,000
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.361 0.359 0.223 36.5% 7.2% 23.6% 44.3% C $3,700 C $5,100 C $9,900
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.365 0.279 0.238 25.9% 3.9% 13.6% 40.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
6 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.318 0.340 0.213 29.9% 9.7% 25.3% 47.5% OF $2,500 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.353 0.338 0.133 32.2% 12.7% 24.1% 44.9% 1B $3,200 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.307 0.340 0.172 28.5% 13.1% 22.2% 39.2% 3B $3,300 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.280 0.245 0.098 19.0% 2.2% 12.7% 50.3% 2B $2,500 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians aren’t an offense that I am looking to stack tonight, based solely on the fact that Jaime Garcia has an elite ground ball rate. He is very good at limiting damage against him. With that said, we can certainly look to the right-handed hitters in this lineup as one-offs, especially the ones with high fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching. That list includes Francisco Lindor, Brandon Guyer, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Austin Jackson. Much like the Yankees, I don’t see any of the Indians’ batters as must plays in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.393 0.366 0.219 42.0% 7.9% 12.7% 39.4% SS $4,200 SS $5,000 SS $9,600
2 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.284 0.288 0.153 20.8% 6.2% 24.7% 30.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.297 0.298 0.090 24.7% 5.0% 13.3% 49.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
4 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.378 0.342 0.214 31.5% 7.6% 12.0% 39.7% 2B $3,900 2B/3B $5,300 IF/OF $10,200
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.381 0.394 0.188 37.4% 19.9% 22.5% 45.8% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.309 0.335 0.160 32.1% 11.8% 7.6% 52.6% 1B $3,600 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.425 0.399 0.224 32.7% 14.1% 15.4% 36.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.376 0.345 0.264 40.4% 11.9% 19.0% 46.4% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Giovanny Urshela RIGHT 0.198 0.279 0.045 31.6% 4.3% 13.0% 31.6% 3B $2,000 3B $2,700 3B $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Brandon Guyer, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Austin Jackson

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Milwaukee Tampa Bay
milwaukeemlb Brandon Woodruff tampabaymlb Jacob Faria
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -157 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.246 0.288 18.8% 18.7% 17.3% 56.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.295 34.2% 4.5% 25.4% 31.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brandon Woodruff
brandon-woodruff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Woodruff is making his major league debut tonight against the Rays. In 15 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 4.43 FIP with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 7%. It looks like he has a fairly high ground ball rate, but not overwhelming stuff. It won’t hurt to take a wait and see approach here, especially as an underdog on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Woodruff in all formats.

Jacob Faria
jacob-faria-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,500
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 4.33 2.93 23.0% 8.7% 38.3% 29.8% 22.6%
L30 5 5.59 3.72 18.4% 13.6% 36.1% 26.5% 22.9%

Faria has pitched well in his first ten major league starts, posting a 4.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that relies on inducing soft and medium contact. His first five starts were better than his last five though, which suggests that big league hitters are starting to figure him out a bit. The good news is that he is pitching at home against a high-strikeout Brewers’ offense. Faria is a boom or bust tournament play tonight, although I expect some people to look his way in cash games. At a similar price point, I’d rather take Ivan Nova against the Padres.

Quick Breakdown: Faria is viable in tournaments thanks to a high upside matchup against the Brewers.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a mediocre matchup at best tonight and they see a ballpark downgrade playing in Tropicana Field. The sample size is small, but Jacob Faria has a decent strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA in his first ten major league starts. I’m not against using Eric Thames or Travis Shaw as one-off targets, but will be avoiding the Brewers for the most part. There are some offenses in really exploitable matchups in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.369 0.339 0.118 25.0% 14.5% 12.5% 40.6% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,500 2B $4,800
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.396 0.351 0.293 43.4% 15.9% 26.9% 39.5% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,600
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.330 0.264 39.6% 8.0% 22.8% 45.9% OF $4,200 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.401 0.367 0.280 39.5% 10.6% 21.3% 45.7% 3B $3,300 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
5 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.354 0.322 0.265 38.5% 6.2% 28.8% 41.8% 1B $2,400 1B $2,900 1B $5,700
6 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.362 0.326 0.190 34.1% 11.6% 29.7% 48.6% OF $3,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.340 0.295 0.181 29.9% 6.6% 18.8% 36.8% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.306 0.286 0.196 34.6% 8.2% 38.1% 44.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 CF $5,200
9 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.308 0.270 0.132 27.5% 5.0% 17.8% 52.4% SS $2,600 SS $2,500 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

We never quite know what to expect from a pitcher that is making his major league debut. Every once in a while the pitcher in question will have a big game, but more often than not, the opposing offense wins out. The Rays are a very interesting offense to target tonight and one that should fly under the radar. I’m not sure how many lineups I am going to build tonight, but I plan to have at least one Rays’ stack. They hit a lot of home runs and their one through five batters all own a high ISO and hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.371 0.328 0.245 35.7% 6.8% 22.0% 38.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.384 0.397 0.305 43.1% 14.5% 22.9% 26.8% 1B $3,800 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.343 0.316 0.195 32.5% 4.8% 14.5% 43.8% 3B $3,100 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.378 0.391 0.313 42.6% 15.5% 24.3% 31.6% 1B $3,700 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.399 0.386 0.313 39.9% 12.7% 29.3% 39.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.192 0.298 0.125 39.0% 3.3% 26.2% 48.8% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,600
7 Brad Miller LEFT 0.294 0.315 0.100 32.4% 20.8% 26.0% 52.0% 2B $2,700 2B $2,700 2B $5,200
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.330 0.262 0.110 21.1% 11.0% 19.5% 52.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.243 0.269 0.038 26.4% 2.2% 19.9% 51.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,500 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Boston
whitesoxmlb Carlos Rodon bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-210 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.290 0.279 29.5% 5.4% 26.8% 49.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.314 26.2% 9.9% 24.7% 39.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.310 27.7% 9.5% 23.7% 42.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.304 29.4% 8.8% 23.4% 30.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Rodon
carlos-rodon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 3.91 4.04 23.5% 7.6% 44.1% 27.8% 16.3%
2017 6 4.45 5.23 28.4% 14.2% 39.5% 29.6% 13.6%
L30 4 3.93 7.32 30.4% 12.0% 35.8% 32.1% 18.9%

Rodon is trying to regain some of last season’s form, after missing the first few months of the season with an injury. He has flashed some upside in his first six starts of the year, but he needs to work on his command (14% walk rate). There will be a time to target Rodon in the near future, but not tonight in a start against the Red Sox. Not only is he pitching in Fenway Park, but the Red Sox are ranked ninth in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rodon in all formats.

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.44 4.71 21.8% 8.7% 31.6% 27.6% 22.2%
2017 13 4.07 4.16 26.3% 9.4% 34.3% 30.5% 17.2%
L30 3 4.47 6.75 26.0% 12.3% 32.6% 36.4% 15.9%

Do you remember the other day when I said to play J.A. Happ against the White Sox? After trading Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera, this is not the same White Sox lineup that helped them become one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. In fact, when you just look at each individual hitter’s xwOBA, this is now one of the worst offenses in baseball against southpaws. Don’t let the season long numbers fool you. Rodriguez is my favorite pitching option in the entire slate. He has a 26% strikeout rate this season and the White Sox have one (I repeat one) good right-handed batter in their lineup. Rodriguez is a massive favorite and he’s dirt cheap across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is an elite play in both cash games and tournaments. My hope is that some of the high-priced arms will drive down his ownership.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Seeing that I’m so high on Eduardo Rodriguez, I will obviously have very little exposure to the White Sox offense. I may end up with a Jose Abreu lineup or two just for peace of mind, but he will obviously not be on my Rodriguez lineups. The reason for the White Sox fade is simple. Rodriguez is tough on both left and right-handed hitters and the White Sox have little to no talent in their lineup right now.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.322 0.291 0.101 28.8% 1.9% 26.2% 45.8% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
2 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.324 0.333 0.067 27.8% 11.1% 18.5% 38.2% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,700 2B $5,400
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.441 0.427 0.255 39.7% 8.6% 20.0% 46.6% 1B $3,700 1B $5,100 1B $9,900
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.328 0.310 0.205 28.8% 6.4% 30.9% 28.8% 3B $3,000 1B/3B $4,700 3B $9,300
5 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.056 0.176 0.000 22.2% 0.0% 23.1% 66.7% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,900
6 Nick Delmonico RIGHT 0.173 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 100.0% N/A N/A
7 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.205 0.232 0.075 15.8% 0.0% 14.5% 71.4% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,800
8 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.311 0.270 0.037 18.4% 3.3% 13.3% 65.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,700 CF $9,200
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.278 0.205 0.105 12.5% 9.3% 32.6% 54.2% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 CF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu

Stackability – RED

Boston

The Red Sox make a lot of sense tonight against Carlos Rodon. His biggest weapon is his high strikeout rate and Boston can take that away. As mentioned above, they have the lowest stirkeout rate of any team in baseball against left-handed pitching. Outside of his strikeout rate, Rodon has bad command and he’s a fly-ball pitcher. That bodes well for the Red Sox, especially at home in Fenway. A stack is certainly viable here, while Mookie Betts, Eduardo Nunez, and Hanley Ramirez all make great cash game targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.364 0.333 0.177 33.8% 13.0% 6.5% 40.5% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.340 0.285 0.118 27.9% 5.1% 8.1% 59.3% 2B $3,900 3B/OF $5,000 3B $9,900
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.343 0.373 0.230 38.3% 17.6% 18.9% 42.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
4 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.409 0.179 0.125 33.3% 11.1% 55.6% 33.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
5 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.276 0.260 0.034 22.2% 11.9% 20.9% 64.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.304 0.266 0.074 27.6% 5.3% 16.0% 55.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
7 Chris Young RIGHT 0.299 0.316 0.104 27.6% 12.8% 11.5% 32.8% OF $2,400 P $4,300 LF $6,800
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.281 0.348 0.194 31.0% 3.1% 6.3% 48.3% C $2,700 C $4,500 C $8,800
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.390 0.339 0.195 31.2% 9.1% 19.3% 55.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Young

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious