MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-14 03:34:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Pittsburgh					Chicago Cubs
			Francisco Liriano					Jason Hammel
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -150					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.258	3	26.7%	8.9%	SP vs. Left	0.306	7	23.3%	9.3%
SP vs. Right	0.294	17	26.2%	9.8%	SP vs. Right	0.297	17	23.9%	3.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Francisco Liriano
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$8,700
				FPPG:		30.9	FPPG:		15.8
				Pitcher Rating:		1.0	Pitcher Rank:		64
L14 Days	2	2.52	29.1%	3.6%	9.2%	58.3%	33.3%	33.3%	0.00
2016	6	4.00	25.3%	12.3%	10.5%	56.8%	30.7%	36.2%	1.29
2015	31	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%	0.72

We have one day game on the slate and it should be a fun one. The wind is finally blowing out to center at Wrigley Field. This is the one stadium that is affected by wind more than any other. Typically, the total for this game would be set around 7.5 runs, but with the wind blowing out, it is set at 9.5 runs. Liriano does produce a high ground ball rate and a high strikeout rate, but he is a sizable underdog in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the day. The Cubs currently lead the majors in runs scored per game and they are ranked eighth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Jason Hammel
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,700
				FPPG:		26.6	FPPG:		13.7
				Pitcher Rating:		1.0	Pitcher Rank:		67
L14 Days	2	5.26	13.3%	11.1%	8.6%	51.6%	32.3%	27.3%	0.90
2016	6	4.42	20.3%	10.1%	9.0%	44.0%	36.3%	26.6%	0.26
2015	31	3.45	24.2%	5.6%	10.9%	38.3%	37.2%	32.9%	1.21

Hammel has not been sharp in his last two starts, which brings his SIERA down to 4.42 on the season. While he is a favorite today against the Pirates, there is no reason to consider him in the all-day slate. With the wind blowout out, there could be a lot of home runs hit. That doesn’t bode well for Hammel who gave up 1.21 home runs per nine innings a season ago. The strikeout potential is there, but there are safer pitching options on the board today.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates hit right-handed well as a team. They are ranked fifth in team wOBA and fourth in strikeout rate against righties this season. They come into today’s game with the 17th highest team total on the board. The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, but the Pirates are still a mediocre offense to target. Over the last two seasons, Jason Hammel has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.143 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.94 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	David Freese	RIGHT	0.325	0.135	0.323	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,200
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.369	0.196	0.339	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,300
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.333	0.147	0.250	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.358	0.160	0.396	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.330	0.085	0.274	C	$2,700	C	$2,900
6	Jung Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.362	0.184	0.532	3B	$3,200	3B/SS	$3,300
7	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.308	0.145	0.439	OF	$2,900	2B/3B	$2,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.265	0.067	0.295	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,700
9	Francisco Liriano	LEFT	0.248	0.102	0.126	P	$9,400	P	$8,700
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.136	0.330	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – David Freese, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Jung Ho Kang

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the best offense in baseball. They are ranked first in runs scored per game and they have the sixth highest team total on the board today. Even though their matchup against Francisco Liriano doesn’t look great on paper, their offense sees a nice boost as a whole with the wind blowing out. The right-handed hitters have the edge here, as Liriano is very tough on left-handed bats.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.333 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.129 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.3% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.94 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.79 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.381	0.150	0.381	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.303	0.083	0.234	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.344	0.209	0.345	3B	$4,400	3B/OF	$4,100
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.366	0.173	0.480	1B	$4,800	1B	$4,600
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.403	0.203	0.499	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,500
6	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.278	0.088	0.170	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,300
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.238	0.118	0.390	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,300
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.255	0.055	0.223	C	$2,300	C	$2,200
9	Jason Hammel	RIGHT	0.160	0.000	0.000	P	$8,500	P	$7,700
	Team Averages	—	0.303	0.120	0.302	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					Philadelphia
			Brandon Finnegan					Jeremy Hellickson
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -120					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.344	3	16.3%	13.3%	SP vs. Left	0.353	11	18.1%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.303	13	21.0%	9.6%	SP vs. Right	0.333	20	21.2%	4.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Brandon Finnegan
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,200
				FPPG:		19.9	FPPG:		10.0
				Pitcher Rating:		57.4	Pitcher Rank:		16
L14 Days	2	4.99	9.6%	5.8%	4.0%	47.6%	28.6%	27.9%	2.45
2016	7	4.96	16.2%	10.4%	8.9%	41.5%	34.1%	33.6%	1.85
2015	4	3.77	22.8%	10.7%	9.7%	54.3%	29.1%	30.8%	1.50

Finnegan hasn’t fared well this season, posting a 4.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.2. After a nice start to his career, he has really cooled off recently. The good news is that he draws the perfect matchup for a bounce back outing. On the season, the Phillies are ranked 28th in wOBA and 21st in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Finnegan is a small underdog tonight, but he makes a nice GPP target, as we have seen what mediocre pitchers can do against Philadelphia.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Jeremy Hellickson
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,600
				FPPG:		26.4	FPPG:		13.3
				Pitcher Rating:		65.6	Pitcher Rank:		11
L14 Days	2	4.54	17.7%	9.8%	10.9%	50.0%	30.6%	40.5%	4.22
2016	7	3.73	23.1%	6.9%	11.2%	40.2%	38.3%	35.1%	2.21
2015	27	4.14	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%	1.36

Hellickson has come back down to Earth a bit in his last couple of starts, but he still owns a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.1% on the seasons. The biggest issue with Hellickson is his hard hit contact rate (35.1%) and his home runs allowed (31 in his last 34 starts). He draws a decent matchup against the Reds though, and he is listed as a small favorite at home. Both pitchers in this game are decent GPP plays.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have not fared well against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 23rd in team wOBA and 22nd in strikeout rate. They do, however, draw a favorable matchup against Jeremy Hellickson. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .353 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .333 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.173 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.6% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.09 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.327	0.194	0.288	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,300
2	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.244	0.050	0.331	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.409	0.224	0.439	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,300
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.325	0.130	0.359	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,800
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.323	0.240	0.309	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.308	0.156	0.230	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,800
7	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.369	0.328	0.388	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.308	0.096	0.301	C	$2,300	C	$2,400
9	Brandon Finnegan	LEFT	0.230	0.059	0.221	P	$6,000	P	$6,200
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.164	0.318	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia

The Phillies are one of the worst offenses in baseball, but they come into tonight’s game with a team total of 4.37 runs, which is slightly higher than the average of the 30 teams in action today. They draw a favorable matchup against Brandon Finnegan, who has not fared particularly well against left or right-handed hitters. The Phillies’ offense could be a nice source of value tonight.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.267 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.127 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.6% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.18 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.37 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.330	0.084	0.416	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,300
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.318	0.073	0.232	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,800
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.373	0.283	0.213	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,900
4	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.351	0.198	0.177	C	$2,100	C	$3,200
5	Darin Ruf	RIGHT	0.426	0.248	0.152	1B	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,800
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.255	0.032	0.264	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,800
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.115	0.000	0.159	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500
8	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.186	0.000	0.173	P	$6,600	P	$6,600
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.270	0.138	0.295	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.117	0.231	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Darin Ruf

Stackability – GPP

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago White Sox					NY Yankees
			Chris Sale					Luis Severino
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -145					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.262	0	32.6%	5.6%	SP vs. Left	0.310	5	16.9%	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.273	26	30.4%	4.9%	SP vs. Right	0.350	11	24.6%	6.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Chris Sale
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$12,000	Salary:		$12,300
				FPPG:		49.4	FPPG:		27.9
				Pitcher Rating:		88.7	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	2	3.33	29.4%	9.8%	9.5%	50.0%	35.7%	17.2%	0.00
2016	7	3.33	24.9%	5.3%	9.8%	45.2%	39.7%	25.6%	0.54
2015	31	2.52	32.1%	4.9%	14.6%	42.6%	35.3%	25.1%	0.99

Sale’s strikeout rate is down a bit this season, so the question becomes – is it just due to a small sample size or is something causing the lower strikeout rate? A closer examination reveals that his fastball velocity is down about two MPH. He is also generating a much lower swinging strike rate (SS%) than he did a year ago. I’m not raising any red flags just yet, but maybe we should expect a 25-28% strikeout rate moving forward. Either way, Sale is the top pitching option in tonight’s slate. The Yankees have been awful against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 23rd in team wOBA and 26th in team ISO.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Luis Severino
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,500
				FPPG:		17.7	FPPG:		8.3
				Pitcher Rating:		68.2	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	3.42	25.0%	5.8%	8.3%	41.7%	44.4%	25.0%	3.55
2016	6	3.70	17.7%	4.3%	8.0%	49.1%	24.5%	29.1%	1.95
2015	11	3.84	22.0%	8.6%	9.6%	50.3%	29.7%	26.3%	1.30

Severino has been a nice value play in the early part of the season. In his first six starts, he has a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.7% and a walk rate of only 4.3%. He generates a lot of ground ball outs and he doesn’t give up a high hard hit contact rate. His biggest issue this season has been allowing home runs. We should expect some positive regression in that area moving forward. His HR/FB rate is nearly two and a half times that of the major league average.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox come into tonight’s game with the eighth lowest team total on the board. They have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season and they draw a mediocre matchup against Luis Severino. The one plus is that Severino has struggled to keep the ball in the park and the White Sox get to face him in Yankee Stadium.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.6% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.43 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.76 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.360	0.163	0.364	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400
2	Jimmy Rollins	SWITCH	0.260	0.121	0.323	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,600
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.375	0.229	0.403	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,400
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.331	0.220	0.366	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,500
5	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.123	0.333	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
6	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.297	0.139	0.452	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,700
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.299	0.120	0.436	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
8	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.276	0.114	0.265	C	$2,800	C	$2,700
9	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.291	0.102	0.297	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.148	0.360	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the lowest team total on the board tonight. They draw the worst matchup of any team, as they have to square off against Chris Sale. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 wOBA. The only sliver of hope for the Yankees is that Sale has allowed 26 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.306 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.114 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.6% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.75 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.24 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.323	0.108	0.337	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,100
2	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.344	0.154	0.326	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.313	0.094	0.380	2B	$2,900	2B	$2,600
4	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.336	0.153	0.163	1B	$2,600	1B	$2,700
5	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.314	0.183	0.336	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900
6	Dustin Ackley	LEFT	0.210	0.033	0.200	OF	$2,000	1B/OF	$2,400
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.294	0.103	0.278	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,500
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.287	0.069	0.251	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,300
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.421	0.133	0.389	C	$2,200	1B	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.114	0.296	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Baltimore
			Justin Verlander					Chris Tillman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -145					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.269	10	21.7%	6.2%	SP vs. Left	0.310	3	18.4%	10.2%
SP vs. Right	0.315	10	21.9%	7.0%	SP vs. Right	0.336	18	17.2%	7.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Justin Verlander
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,100
				FPPG:		28.6	FPPG:		14.6
				Pitcher Rating:		50.1	Pitcher Rank:		25
L14 Days	2	4.30	21.2%	9.6%	11.1%	40.0%	40.0%	28.6%	0.75
2016	7	3.93	23.9%	8.5%	10.1%	35.0%	47.0%	32.2%	1.51
2015	20	3.95	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%	0.88

Verlander has pitched well this season, posting a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.9%. I have a hard time picking the right nights to use him though, so I generally avoid him if there are comparable options. He draws a boom or bust matchup tonight against the Orioles in Camden Yards. The boom is thanks to the fact that Baltimore strikes out at a high rate. The bust is thanks to the fact that they are ranked second in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Chris Tillman
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,900
				FPPG:		34.9	FPPG:		18.2
				Pitcher Rating:		54.4	Pitcher Rank:		19
L14 Days	2	4.08	28.6%	14.3%	9.1%	38.7%	35.5%	25.8%	0.00
2016	7	3.87	25.8%	10.3%	10.9%	37.1%	42.3%	27.8%	0.23
2015	31	4.69	16.2%	8.6%	7.1%	43.5%	35.4%	26.9%	1.04

Tillman has seen a major boost in his strikeout rate this season, but is it sustainable? Let’s take a look. His fastball velocity is slightly up from a year ago, he is throwing a lot more sliders, and he is generating a swinging strike rate over 10%. All of which points to what could be a higher strikeout rate moving forward. The only potential issue is the small sample size. He’s worth monitoring moving forward and if the Vegas line is any indication, the oddsmakers like him in tonight’s matchup against the Tigers. He could be worth a look as a deep GPP play.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are ranked above the major league average in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a mediocre matchup against Chris Tillman, who has allowed a .310 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .336 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. This isn’t my favorite matchup, but it’s not one that we need to completely avoid either.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.4% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.30 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.99 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.330	0.135	0.286	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,700
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.353	0.229	0.219	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.400	0.185	0.351	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,200
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.295	0.144	0.482	C	$3,300	1B	$4,100
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.344	0.207	0.313	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.318	0.169	0.498	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,000
7	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SWITCH	0.326	0.234	0.272	C	$2,400	C	$3,200
8	Anthony Gose	LEFT	0.315	0.128	0.317	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.286	0.056	0.196	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.165	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Victor Martinez (FD)

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, especially when they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Tonight they square off against Justin Verlander, who is a reverse-splits pitcher. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .310 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.361 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.207 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.4% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.51 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.293	0.105	0.309	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.401	0.260	0.491	3B	$4,200	3B/SS	$5,100
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.337	0.201	0.315	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.412	0.348	0.381	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,900
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.338	0.180	0.397	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200
6	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.341	0.189	0.437	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.355	0.244	0.378	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,500
8	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.277	0.147	0.261	2B	$2,100	3B	$2,800
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.303	0.146	0.315	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.202	0.365	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GPP

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Washington
			Tom Koehler					Gio Gonzalez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -165					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.340	17	18.8%	10.3%	SP vs. Left	0.276	1	14.2%	7.4%
SP vs. Right	0.314	8	15.4%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.309	9	23.8%	9.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Tom Koehler
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,900
				FPPG:		20.7	FPPG:		8.8
				Pitcher Rating:		39.2	Pitcher Rank:		27
L14 Days	2	4.47	20.0%	10.0%	8.4%	40.7%	37.0%	39.3%	1.93
2016	6	5.00	17.3%	11.3%	7.6%	38.9%	40.0%	26.9%	0.92
2015	31	4.67	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%	1.06

Koehler has been a pitcher to pick on over the last couple of seasons. During that time, he has a SIERA close to 5.00 with a strikeout rate right around 17%. He walks too many batters and he gives up a lot of hard contact. That’s not a great combination for a pitcher. Even though the Nationals have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, there is no reason to consider Koehler in cash games or GPPs tonight on the road.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Gio Gonzalez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$8,100
				FPPG:		32.0	FPPG:		17.5
				Pitcher Rating:		74.6	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	2	5.88	6.1%	6.1%	5.5%	44.7%	44.7%	38.1%	0.77
2016	6	4.22	18.4%	6.6%	8.6%	46.7%	41.0%	32.7%	0.49
2015	31	3.77	22.3%	9.1%	9.8%	53.8%	26.6%	28.7%	0.41

Gonzalez has really struggled in his last two starts, bringing his SIERA down to 4.22 on the season. While I generally like to target him when he is pitching at home, I don’t love the matchup against a right-handed heavy Marlins’ lineup. If you look at the table below, the first five batters in the Marlins’ projected lineup have at least a .328 wOBA against southpaws. You can still use Gonzalez as an SP2 tonight, but I wouldn’t roll him out as my ace on single-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins may not have the best numbers against left-handed pitching as a team, but they have a few batters in their lineup that feast on southpaws. Most notably is Giancarlo Stanton, who has a ridiculous .461 wOBA and .493 ISO over the last two seasons. Even in this ballpark, Stanton is an elite play tonight.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.142 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.6% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.09 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.62 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.332	0.193	0.334	C	$2,700	C	$3,500
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.358	0.122	0.376	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,700
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.328	0.066	0.382	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.461	0.493	0.397	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,300
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.412	0.226	0.500	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300
6	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.315	0.065	0.360	1B	$2,400	1B/3B	$2,500
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.264	0.093	0.392	2B	$3,300	2B/3B	$2,500
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.217	0.067	0.343	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,300
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.098	0.000	0.000	P	$6,200	P	$5,900
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.147	0.343	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Martin Prado

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals are ranked between 12th and 20th in all five of the offensive categories listed below. Basically, they are a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching. The good news is that they get to face Tom Koehler, who has allowed a .340 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .314 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Bryce Harper deserves consideration as arguably the top hitter in the slate, as he has a .465 wOBA and a .349 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.6% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.35 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.314	0.077	0.171	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.300	0.104	0.304	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,100
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.465	0.349	0.324	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,100
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.291	0.155	0.339	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.369	0.208	0.516	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,000
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.279	0.135	0.276	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.290	0.137	0.503	C	$3,000	C	$3,500
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.302	0.164	0.342	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,800
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.138	0.022	0.000	P	$8,900	P	$8,100
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.150	0.308	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 13th

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – David Freese, Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Jung Ho Kang

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco, Cameron Rupp

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Darin Ruf

Stackability – GPP

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Victor Martinez (FD)

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GPP

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Martin Prado

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere

Stackability – GPP

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