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MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-18 19:36:58

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

LA Dodgers at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Washington
ladodgersmlb Ross Stripling washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-220 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.247 20.5% 6.8% 27.1% 36.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.258 27.4% 6.3% 34.0% 27.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.285 34.9% 7.9% 23.8% 47.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.172 0.264 50.0% 4.9% 51.9% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Stripling
ross-stripling-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,500
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 3.37 3.75 24.3% 6.3% 49.3% 27.0% 20.4%
2018 3 3.49 2.20 25.4% 7.4% 42.5% 28.1% 20.7%
L14 2 2.54 1.74 31.0% 4.8% 53.8% 18.5% 11.1%

Stripling has yet to throw more than 79 pitches in any outing this season, but his numbers as a whole are solid. He currently owns a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 7%. He has induced a lot of soft and medium contact. The problem here is twofold — Stripling will likely be on a pitch count and run support will be limited with Max Scherzer pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: In a 15-game slate, we can find better options than Stripling.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $14,000 Salary: $27,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5%
2018 9 2.12 1.69 40.4% 5.8% 32.2% 33.9% 22.0%
L14 2 1.15 1.35 51.0% 3.9% 10.0% 36.4% 13.6%

If we take salaries out of the equation, Scherzer is the best pitcher on the board tonight and it’s not particularly close. He is having a career year, which is really saying something given how well he has pitched over the last five seasons. In nine starts, he owns a 2.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 40%. The Dodgers have plenty of talent in their offense, but they also strikeout at a higher rate than we’ve seen in previous years. Their projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats, but he does cost a pretty penny.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have the worst matchup of the slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA over the last two seasons. In a 15-game slate, the Dodgers are a full fade against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.345 0.383 0.167 32.6% 5.8% 27.5% 30.7% SS $3,600 OF/SS $3,200 IF/OF $6,600
2 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.353 0.284 0.141 37.1% 14.9% 14.9% 44.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.487 0.739 0.000 71.4% 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 3B $3,400 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
4 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.407 0.365 0.276 40.9% 10.9% 15.8% 46.5% C $3,100 C $3,300 C $6,400
5 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.337 0.313 0.245 37.4% 7.8% 20.7% 45.1% 1B $3,500 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
6 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.355 0.410 0.171 41.3% 3.5% 23.3% 39.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 LF $5,700
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.277 0.056 0.143 29.0% 0.0% 11.4% 35.5% 3B $2,200 2B/3B $2,700 3B $5,500
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.346 0.409 0.123 32.7% 6.4% 23.1% 34.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
9 Ross Stripling RIGHT 0.000 0.042 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% P $6,000 P $4,200 P $8,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have a difficult matchup against Ross Stripling on paper, but he’s been more effective out of the bullpen than he has been as a starter over the last few seasons. While the Nationals’ batters aren’t priority plays by any means, they are intriguing tournament plays. Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Matt Adams all own a .410+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Trea Turner brings stolen base upside to the table at a very thin shortstop position.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.362 0.381 0.176 39.4% 13.7% 18.0% 54.8% SS $3,800 SS $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.500 0.526 0.389 47.5% 22.8% 14.2% 35.0% OF $4,500 OF $5,500 RF $11,100
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.411 0.517 0.209 33.3% 13.0% 9.1% 35.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,400
4 Matt Adams LEFT 0.451 0.480 0.383 44.3% 15.5% 20.6% 31.1% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $4,100 1B $8,300
5 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.326 0.319 0.190 39.5% 2.7% 18.0% 47.7% 2B $3,300 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
6 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.765 0.765 1.000 60.0% 0.0% 16.7% 20.0% 1B $3,200 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,700
7 Andrew Stevenson LEFT 0.298 0.294 0.027 25.0% 4.8% 26.2% 46.2% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.305 0.380 0.091 27.3% 14.9% 16.4% 36.4% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $4,500
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.287 0.340 0.048 26.3% 0.0% 9.5% 52.6% P $11,600 P $14,000 P $27,200

Elite Plays – Trea Turner (GPP), Bryce Harper (GPP), Matt Adams (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner (Cash), Bryce Harper (Cash), Matt Adams (Cash), Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

San Diego Pittsburgh
sandiegomlb Tyson Ross pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-126 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.338 43.1% 10.1% 23.6% 47.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.387 0.463 35.3% 4.1% 8.2% 42.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.229 0.292 38.2% 8.2% 29.1% 41.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.337 36.5% 3.3% 25.6% 53.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross
tyson-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 6.17 7.71 15.1% 15.6% 46.8% 32.3% 14.6%
2018 8 3.67 3.40 26.6% 9.1% 44.0% 40.5% 19.1%
L14 2 3.98 4.50 25.5% 9.8% 34.4% 53.1% 18.8%

After dealing with injuries and poor pitching performances over the last couple of seasons, Ross is back to what he does best — strikeout batters and induce an above-average ground ball rate. On the season, he owns a 3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Pirates. They have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball and have a left-handed heavy lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Ross still struggles against lefties, which makes him an easy fade in a low-strikeout matchup against the Pirates.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6%
2018 9 3.97 5.01 17.8% 3.7% 47.6% 35.9% 15.3%
L14 2 5.12 10.57 10.5% 5.3% 40.6% 46.9% 15.6%

Nova is not a pitcher that I use often in DFS, but I will look his way as a cheap tournament play when he’s pitching at home against a right-handed heavy lineup. His fantasy appeal will hinge on what the Padres’ lineup looks like tonight. They are projected to have five lefties, but that could always change when the actual lineup comes out. If there are five or six right-handed bats, Nova would become an excellent play at a price of only $6,400 on DraftKings. This is a great ballpark for pitchers and we know the Padres strikeout as often as any offense in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on the Padres’ lineup. If there are five or more righties, give Nova a look in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

If you couldn’t tell from the pitching blurb above, the best way to attack Ivan Nova is with left-handed hitters. He has held righties to a .337 xwOBA on a 53% ground ball rate this season, but has allowed a massive .463 xwOBA on a 42% ground ball rate to lefties. I wouldn’t get carried away with Padres’ ownership in a 15-game slate, but Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer, Franchy Cordero, and Raffy Lopez deserve consideration as deep tournament fliers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.324 0.316 0.179 20.0% 15.2% 8.7% 65.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.349 0.384 0.214 31.6% 12.7% 22.9% 55.3% 1B $3,700 1B $3,900 1B $7,500
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.257 0.281 0.064 36.0% 6.7% 26.7% 65.2% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,700
4 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.413 0.294 0.227 54.2% 13.8% 31.0% 45.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
5 Raffy Lopez LEFT 0.320 0.287 0.261 35.7% 14.8% 33.3% 28.6% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $5,700
6 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.255 0.176 0.088 24.5% 7.7% 29.7% 34.0% 3B $3,000 3B $3,400 3B $6,900
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.247 0.253 0.040 41.0% 11.1% 21.4% 52.0% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,500
8 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.261 0.214 0.093 31.9% 4.3% 20.2% 50.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,700
9 Tyson Ross RIGHT 0.095 0.264 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 50.0% 75.0% P $7,900 P $9,500 P $18,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer, Franchy Cordero, Raffy Lopez

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

You can basically take what I said about how to attack Ivan Nova and paste it here for Tyson Ross. He has been very tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, but has allowed a .338 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to lefties. Again, we shouldn’t go overboard with our exposure to these two offenses, but Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, and Corey Dickerson all bat from the left side of the plate and have decent numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.293 0.296 0.112 22.9% 5.6% 15.0% 58.0% OF $2,300 2B $3,000 IF/OF $5,400
2 Austin Meadows LEFT N/A N/A
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.378 0.369 0.246 35.6% 12.9% 21.6% 33.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.324 0.374 0.137 32.3% 9.4% 18.8% 51.0% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.370 0.341 0.218 32.5% 5.2% 9.0% 26.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 LF $7,700
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.443 0.518 0.244 43.2% 11.7% 16.2% 32.4% C $3,200 C $3,900 C $7,400
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.395 0.453 0.168 37.5% 10.6% 16.3% 38.6% 3B $2,800 3B $3,500 3B $6,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.307 0.341 0.148 25.9% 6.7% 21.0% 36.5% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $5,600
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.070 0.191 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 57.1% 66.7% P $8,300 P $6,400 P $13,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Oakland Toronto
oaklandmlb Brett Anderson torontomlb Marco Estrada
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-117 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.407 31.3% 15.8% 0.0% 68.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.349 28.3% 11.5% 19.5% 26.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.475 0.408 34.2% 6.1% 16.3% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.402 0.396 38.0% 5.0% 16.8% 22.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson
brett-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.84 6.34 15.1% 8.4% 49.2% 36.5% 21.9%
2018 3 5.00 8.16 11.8% 8.8% 55.6% 33.3% 16.7%
L14 2 5.38 12.38 9.1% 11.4% 60.0% 31.4% 17.1%

Anderson has not fared well in his last few seasons in the majors. He used to have an average strikeout rate, but it’s sitting at 12% this season. While he does still induce ground balls at a high rate, it hasn’t led to any sort of success. He has an ERA over nine in three starts. To make matters worse, he has to face a talented right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ lineup on the road in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Anderson in all formats.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4%
2018 8 5.12 5.32 18.1% 8.0% 24.5% 33.8% 17.3%
L14 2 5.84 3.00 16.7% 10.4% 17.1% 37.1% 14.3%

Go A’s! If you’ve read the Grind Down more than a time or two this season, you know how much I love this A’s offense. They are built to draw walks and hit fly balls. This leads to a lot of home runs and a lot of big innings. The two biggest weaknesses for Estrada are walks and home runs. This certainly seems like a good spot to load up on the A’s offense again. Hopefully everyone listened and stacked Oakland last night. We can go right back to that well tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada is facing the behemoth that is the A’s offense. Thanks, but no thanks.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

As mentioned above, the A’s are typically one of my favorite stacks when they draw a decent matchup. Their lineup is loaded with firepower and they draw plenty of walks, which leads to a lot of runners in scoring position. Marco Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that often struggles with his control. At the very least, there will be a lot of loud outs coming from these Oakland bats. Personally, I will be going right back to the stack, as the A’s have six projected starters with at least a .365 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.298 0.276 0.081 28.4% 6.8% 21.8% 47.4% SS $3,200 SS $3,800 SS $7,300
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.365 0.348 0.204 36.0% 18.1% 22.8% 33.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 RF $6,500
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.385 0.354 0.273 38.6% 11.2% 18.4% 37.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.433 0.400 0.295 50.6% 8.1% 23.5% 36.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.384 0.386 0.221 51.6% 11.8% 33.6% 32.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.369 0.301 0.205 38.8% 11.7% 25.0% 39.2% 3B $2,800 3B $3,600 3B $7,400
7 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.318 0.338 0.127 38.6% 10.0% 27.1% 36.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,700
8 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.371 0.434 0.153 41.8% 6.4% 21.3% 47.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.331 0.331 0.107 40.9% 6.0% 12.0% 40.0% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,400

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto

Just like last night, we can stack either side of this game or load up on both offenses. Brett Anderson is a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .400+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. The main difference is that he owns a high ground ball rate compared to Estrada’s high fly ball rate. The Blue Jays also have a high ground ball rate as a whole. The downside to ground balls is that they don’t leave the ballpark and they can quickly end innings if they are sharply hit at defenders. I slightly prefer the A’s stack, but will end up with plenty of exposure to the Blue Jays as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.430 0.366 0.227 36.7% 10.2% 28.6% 50.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.302 0.264 0.176 42.9% 5.6% 36.1% 52.4% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 3B $9,000
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.339 0.339 0.173 30.0% 11.5% 21.3% 52.5% 1B $3,600 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.380 0.322 0.228 30.0% 10.8% 10.8% 40.0% 3B $3,000 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,200
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.285 0.335 0.192 36.4% 1.8% 16.4% 43.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.327 0.309 0.045 33.3% 17.9% 25.0% 60.0% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,800
7 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.310 0.351 0.133 45.5% 11.4% 25.7% 54.5% 1B $2,100 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
8 Anthony Alford RIGHT 0.206 0.236 0.000 0.0% 18.2% 45.5% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.029 0.152 1.000 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% SS $2,300 SS $2,800 SS $5,400

Elite Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Arizona NY Mets
arizonamlb Zack Godley nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-150 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.307 28.4% 11.1% 21.2% 63.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.253 0.257 22.9% 9.8% 31.7% 37.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.392 38.6% 8.0% 22.0% 41.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.227 0.223 25.0% 6.5% 32.3% 51.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Godley
zachary-godley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.67 3.37 26.3% 8.5% 55.3% 32.2% 18.6%
2018 8 4.14 4.08 21.6% 9.6% 51.9% 33.6% 26.3%
L14 2 4.71 6.00 18.9% 9.4% 42.1% 36.8% 29.0%

Godley hasn’t been his usual self in his last few starts. His strikeout and ground ball rate are both down, while his hard contact rate is up. He’s typically one of my favorite values in DFS because he never seems to be priced correctly. While I like this ballpark for pitchers, the Mets are very good against right-handed pitching. Their projected lineup has a .351 xwOBA against righties this season. To make matters worse, Jacob deGrom is pitching opposite him, which will likely result in little to no run support.

Quick Breakdown: Godley is a decent leverage play off of the chalky deGrom, but only if you are making multiple tournament lineups.

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,400
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.44 3.53 28.9% 7.1% 45.3% 31.9% 21.3%
2018 8 3.01 1.83 32.0% 8.0% 45.5% 24.0% 29.8%
L14 1 12.32 0.00 33.3% 50.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%

DeGrom only pitched one inning in his last start. There was a one-hour rain delay and when he finally took the mound, he walked the first three batters that he faced. The Mets decided to play it safe and pulled him after the first inning. It doesn’t sound like there was any sort of setback with his shoulder injury, so we can fire him up in all formats tonight. Due to the injury and the two shortened outings, deGrom is only $10,000 on FanDuel and $9,800 on DraftKings. This is far too cheap for a pitcher with a 3.01 SIERA and a 32% strikeout rate. Add in a matchup against a strikeout-happy Diamondbacks’ offense and we have ourselves a great play.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, deGrom is the top pitching option of the slate (at least on DraftKings).

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have struggled offensively this season, especially on the road. They draw an awful matchup against Jacob deGrom, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA this season. Arizona would be an easy fade in small slates, let alone a 15-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.389 0.340 0.257 46.9% 10.6% 17.7% 46.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 RF $7,400
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.276 0.281 0.106 30.4% 7.0% 28.2% 47.8% OF $2,000 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,500
3 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.382 0.350 0.233 44.1% 16.7% 19.4% 27.9% 3B $3,000 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.326 0.322 0.101 39.1% 14.6% 30.8% 46.4% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.220 0.248 0.031 33.3% 8.6% 22.9% 41.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
6 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.264 0.326 0.075 26.3% 6.9% 12.9% 57.0% 2B $2,100 2B $3,000 SS $5,700
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.252 0.103 0.100 44.0% 13.0% 50.7% 36.0% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,500
8 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.290 0.201 0.146 27.7% 9.0% 26.0% 31.7% SS $2,600 SS $2,900 SS $5,800
9 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 85.7% 0.0% P $8,500 P $8,100 P $16,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are favored tonight and have excellent numbers against right-handed pitching, but they are playing in a bad ballpark and facing a ground ball pitcher. On the season, Zack Godley has held left-handed hitters to a .307 xwOBA and a 28% ground ball rate. It doesn’t help that the current roster of the Mets owns a .228 wOBA against Godley in 45 plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.437 0.266 0.255 35.1% 16.4% 20.9% 22.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 LF $6,300
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.406 0.346 0.255 44.3% 6.7% 18.5% 34.5% 2B $3,600 2B $3,600 SS $7,500
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.313 0.366 0.241 36.5% 4.3% 31.0% 29.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,700
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.420 0.393 0.189 42.7% 10.8% 15.7% 34.7% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
5 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.342 0.326 0.255 41.0% 9.4% 15.1% 38.5% 1B $2,500 1B/3B $3,000 3B $5,700
6 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.331 0.264 0.152 30.4% 15.8% 24.2% 41.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.344 0.350 0.244 31.0% 6.5% 26.1% 37.9% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.278 0.000 0.000 0.0% 10.0% 30.0% 33.3% P $10,000 P $9,800 P $18,400
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.289 0.371 0.054 29.6% 3.0% 24.2% 53.6% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Boston
baltimoremlb Alex Cobb bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-151 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.551 0.426 39.6% 1.7% 8.5% 46.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.176 0.270 37.5% 0.0% 20.0% 43.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.307 35.4% 6.1% 13.4% 60.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.423 0.378 37.5% 14.3% 24.2% 35.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,300
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.48 3.66 17.3% 5.9% 47.8% 36.9% 14.9%
2018 6 4.49 7.06 11.4% 4.3% 53.8% 37.3% 17.8%
L14 2 3.38 3.09 21.3% 2.1% 52.8% 36.1% 22.2%

Cobb has shown some signs of life in his last two starts, but now has to face the Red Sox in Fenway. To put it in DFS terms, it’s like winning two $10 double-ups in a row and then doubling down by playing a $20 head to head against one of the best DFS players in the world. Odds are, you will be right back where you started. The projected lineup for the Red Sox has a .383 xwOBA and an 18% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cobb in all formats.

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.31 3.32 23.5% 9.3% 43.2% 32.5% 20.3%
2018 5 4.49 5.47 23.4% 11.7% 37.5% 37.5% 12.5%
L14 2 4.72 4.50 26.1% 15.2% 37.0% 29.6% 18.5%

Pomeranz has shown strikeout upside this season, but his walk rate is a big red flag. It leads to more base runners, a higher pitch count, and more earned runs against him. While he’s still a risky play in DFS, he does offer some tournament appeal tonight against the Orioles. In 97 plate appearances against this current roster, he has held the Orioles to a .284 wOBA with 29 strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: Pomeranz is a viable SP2 in tournaments if you are building multiple lineups.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles couldn’t get another going against David Price last night and now face another lefty in Drew Pomeranz. Even though I have some interest in Pomeranz as a cheap SP2, I will also have shares of this offense. On the season, Pomeranz has allowed a .378 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Trey Mancini, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, and Danny Valencia all bat from the right side and all have good power numbers against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.342 0.431 0.267 28.6% 10.0% 20.0% 62.9% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,500
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.290 0.342 0.023 33.3% 2.2% 17.8% 47.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.442 0.391 0.306 37.1% 14.0% 4.7% 31.4% SS $4,800 SS $5,500 3B $10,800
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.365 0.319 0.000 33.3% 8.3% 12.5% 33.3% 2B $3,600 2B $4,100 2B $8,400
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.331 0.384 0.071 27.3% 0.0% 21.4% 36.4% OF $3,000 1B $3,600 DH $7,200
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.423 0.434 0.286 31.0% 14.6% 14.6% 41.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,300
7 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.541 0.288 0.600 50.0% 0.0% 60.0% 0.0% C $2,200 C $3,400 C $6,300
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.513 0.678 0.600 50.0% 28.6% 14.3% 25.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 RF $5,600
9 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.218 0.254 0.080 27.8% 10.7% 25.0% 58.8% OF $2,100 OF $2,500 LF $4,600

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Danny Valencia

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox have one of the highest implied run totals of the slate and will likely garner high ownership. While I don’t hate the idea of a stack, it’s worth noting that Alex Cobb has held right-handed hitters to a .307 xwOBA on a 60% ground ball rate. This obviously isn’t ideal for a right-handed heavy offense. This doesn’t mean that we can’t play the Red Sox, they just aren’t in a perfect matchup given the way the splits break down. If you are looking to get some exposure to Boston but don’t want to stack them, Andrew Benintendi bats from the left side and owns a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.511 0.483 0.318 48.4% 10.2% 14.2% 31.2% OF $5,200 OF $5,800 RF $10,900
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.358 0.304 0.200 27.6% 11.6% 12.3% 36.2% OF $4,400 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.369 0.314 0.167 34.4% 7.8% 18.0% 46.2% 1B $4,000 1B $4,300 1B $8,300
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.477 0.479 0.352 55.0% 9.4% 23.9% 42.9% OF $4,900 OF $5,300 RF $9,900
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.401 0.330 0.274 44.9% 2.2% 18.0% 46.4% SS $4,100 SS $4,300 SS $8,000
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.488 0.445 0.319 36.7% 12.0% 15.7% 40.0% 1B $3,300 1B $4,500 1B $9,200
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.246 0.283 0.157 23.9% 2.7% 18.8% 47.7% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,400 3B $6,800
8 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.342 0.323 0.167 47.1% 6.9% 28.2% 46.4% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.254 0.214 0.024 21.1% 3.3% 15.4% 44.3% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,500

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts (GPP), J.D. Martinez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (Cash), J.D. Martinez (Cash), Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious