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MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-15 18:45:46

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
baltimoremlb Gabriel Ynoa nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-260 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.399 0.375 40.0% 2.4% 12.2% 37.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.289 0.306 32.5% 7.3% 28.3% 46.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.400 41.9% 4.7% 23.3% 25.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.244 0.243 25.4% 6.2% 30.3% 54.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gabriel Ynoa
gabriel-ynoa-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 4.08 6.38 19.3% 8.0% 49.2% 28.6% 14.3%
2017 1 4.49 4.19 17.9% 3.6% 31.8% 40.9% 13.6%
L30 1 5.79 4.05 10.7% 3.6% 29.2% 41.7% 12.5%

Ynoa is only making his second start of the season. In 21 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.78 FIP with a lackluster 15% strikeout rate. He’s not a pitcher that should be on our radar regardless, especially in a matchup against the Yankees.

Quick Breakdown: Ynoa (Yuh-know-a) what to do here.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $12,000 Salary: $23,400
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 4.06 5.83 21.2% 8.0% 45.1% 29.4% 20.6%
2017 28 3.27 2.96 29.4% 6.7% 50.9% 28.7% 18.5%
L30 6 3.14 3.16 32.0% 7.8% 50.5% 28.6% 17.6%

It’s funny how DFS works sometimes. A pitcher can be the uber chalk and the best play in the slate, or he can be an afterthought. It all depends on the options available to us. If Chris Sale wasn’t pitching tonight, we would all be talking about Severino. Instead, we could see his ownership drop below 15%. Don’t get me wrong, I love Severino in this spot, but I’m on Team Sale. If you want to take some shots on Severino in tournaments, it’s more than justified. He has a 3.27 SIERA on the season with a strikeout rate of 29%. He is also facing a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense that has seven projected starters with a k-rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite play in all formats, but do we really want to target him over Chris Sale?

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles draw one of the worst matchups in the slate. Luis Severino has an elite strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. I don’t make a habit of targeting hitters against elite pitchers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.344 0.317 0.177 41.0% 5.3% 29.1% 47.7% SS $3,500 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.341 0.364 0.221 37.9% 7.9% 16.5% 43.1% 3B $3,900 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.358 0.312 0.200 33.5% 4.3% 20.5% 40.9% 2B $3,300 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.336 0.310 0.195 31.2% 3.4% 17.8% 44.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.369 0.348 0.238 35.5% 6.5% 22.9% 51.8% OF $3,500 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.289 0.303 0.162 31.2% 7.5% 24.5% 43.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.326 0.341 0.258 45.1% 11.9% 35.0% 35.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.326 0.331 0.199 37.3% 5.7% 25.3% 42.0% C $2,900 C $3,400 C $6,800
9 Seth Smith LEFT 0.339 0.350 0.179 36.9% 9.7% 21.2% 42.8% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 LF $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Gabriel Ynoa has only made one major league start this season, so we can avoid his splits in the pitching table above (we need a much bigger sample for them to have any predictive value). What we do know is that he has a low strikeout rate and that he had mediocre numbers at best in the minors. The Yankees are coming off of a huge outing last night against Wade Miley (told you to always stack against him) and should be a popular offense to target tonight. I’m fine going right back to the well with hitters from both sides of the plate. Aaron Judge is one of five batters in all of baseball with an xwOBA over .500 in his last ten games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.357 0.334 0.197 33.0% 11.4% 18.2% 41.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
2 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.350 0.327 0.141 31.5% 12.7% 23.2% 42.7% 1B $3,900 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,600
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.372 0.369 0.257 35.7% 6.8% 23.6% 44.5% C $3,700 C $4,800 C $9,300
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.364 0.289 0.227 25.3% 4.5% 11.5% 38.4% SS $3,300 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.337 0.304 0.174 30.3% 3.3% 20.2% 47.8% 2B $2,900 2B $3,200 2B $6,400
6 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.419 0.421 0.315 44.0% 16.1% 31.6% 35.9% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
7 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.342 0.338 0.155 26.0% 10.6% 12.3% 45.7% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.323 0.342 0.178 30.4% 13.5% 22.3% 37.1% 3B $3,600 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
9 Greg Bird LEFT 0.231 0.293 0.105 32.8% 11.1% 28.3% 31.6% 1B $2,300 1B $2,900 1B $5,700

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Washington
ladodgersmlb Alex Wood washingtonmlb Edwin Jackson
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-140 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.272 17.0% 5.6% 20.5% 58.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.299 31.3% 7.5% 18.7% 44.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.266 0.285 32.1% 7.1% 26.9% 52.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.388 0.366 32.1% 9.0% 15.3% 34.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood
alex-wood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 3.48 3.73 25.9% 7.8% 53.5% 29.7% 18.8%
2017 22 3.53 2.81 25.0% 6.6% 54.6% 27.3% 19.1%
L30 4 4.33 4.88 19.2% 5.8% 43.2% 40.3% 18.2%

I’m not sure if Wood was pitching over his head earlier in the year or if something is wrong with him at the current point in time. Regardless, his recent form is concerning. In his last four starts, he has a 4.33 SIERA with a very mediocre strikeout rate of 19%. His ground ball rate has taken a dive in those outings and his hard contact rate is all the way up to 40%. To make matters worse, he is pitching on the road against a Nationals’ offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Wood until he can flash some strikeout upside again.

Edwin Jackson
edwin-jackson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 5.23 5.89 16.4% 11.0% 40.2% 33.3% 13.3%
2017 10 5.07 4.14 16.9% 8.3% 39.4% 31.7% 24.0%
L30 6 5.23 3.97 16.3% 9.2% 41.6% 32.5% 21.1%

Jackson finally gave up the big outing that we’ve all been waiting for. In only three innings, he gave up five earned runs on seven hits and three walks against the Phillies in his last time out. Every once in a while we see a pitcher flash some rare upside, but when we have a sample size of many years that suggests it’s a fluke, we should trust it. Jackson should be avoided tonight against the Dodgers, who despite their recent struggle, still have one of the best offenses in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Jackson in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are one of my favorite stacks in the slate, even though this isn’t the most hitter-friendly of ballparks. I’m always willing to take shots on an offense that is facing Edwin Jackson. He has a below-average strikeout rate, an above-average walk rate, and he has historically struggled against both left and right-handed hitters. The one through six hitters are all viable here, as they all boast a 35%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.369 0.339 0.221 35.2% 9.0% 25.1% 41.4% OF $3,300 2B/OF $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.360 0.386 0.168 44.4% 12.3% 20.1% 41.3% SS $2,900 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.359 0.369 0.147 35.3% 10.4% 10.7% 32.3% 3B $3,800 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.390 0.362 0.349 45.6% 11.6% 27.9% 35.6% 1B $4,200 1B/OF $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
5 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.375 0.358 0.263 34.6% 9.7% 19.2% 45.4% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
6 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.327 0.289 0.224 37.7% 6.6% 27.5% 41.4% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,400
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.267 0.298 0.071 33.6% 14.9% 27.5% 47.3% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.336 0.334 0.248 34.2% 15.1% 23.2% 30.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
9 Alex Wood LEFT 0.051 0.097 0.000 12.5% 3.0% 48.5% 90.9% P $8,700 P $8,000 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Plays – Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington

The Nationals would be an intriguing offense if we didn’t have a full 14-game slate on tap tonight. Alex Wood has been struggling in his last few starts and the Nationals are one of the best offenses in baseball against southpaws. The issue here is the same issue that I had with Luis Severino. Do we really want to target hitters against Wood when we target them against the likes of Homer Bailey, Bartolo Colon, and Clayton Richard? If you want to take a shot on Anthony Rendon or Ryan Zimmerman in tournaments, I see the appeal, but I won’t be joining you on your quest.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.238 0.254 0.068 25.0% 7.5% 17.5% 54.2% SS $4,300 SS $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.405 0.362 0.225 31.0% 6.5% 18.2% 47.2% SS $2,800 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.455 0.425 0.318 38.2% 17.0% 11.3% 31.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.420 0.406 0.324 43.2% 9.5% 15.1% 44.2% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
5 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.405 0.420 0.218 39.1% 10.3% 16.1% 50.0% OF $3,300 2B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.373 0.342 0.219 35.2% 6.4% 24.4% 50.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
7 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.341 0.386 0.143 21.7% 24.3% 13.5% 39.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.320 0.280 0.156 17.0% 8.5% 25.4% 51.1% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Edwin Jackson RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $7,200 P $6,500 P $12,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – ORANGE

Oakland at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Oakland Philadelphia
oaklandmlb Daniel Mengden philadelphiamlb Mark Leiter Jr.
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-118 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.436 0.398 22.2% 3.1% 12.5% 25.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.314 27.1% 6.7% 20.8% 44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.381 0.441 28.0% 12.5% 9.4% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.319 25.9% 9.3% 20.9% 52.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Mengden
daniel-mengden-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 6.50 21.4% 9.9% 39.5% 29.5% 18.8%
2017 3 5.91 7.07 10.9% 7.8% 32.7% 25.0% 13.5%
L30 1 5.02 3.00 16.7% 8.3% 44.4% 16.7% 5.6%

Mengden is making his fourth start of the season tonight. We expected him to take a step forward this year, but that hasn’t been the case in the minors or at the major league level. He is a fly-ball pitcher that is playing in one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball. He also has to face the Red Walkers (the Phillies if you missed yesterday’s Grind Down), who have been crushing the ball in this home stand.

Quick Breakdown: The Red Walkers are coming for you Mengden.

Mark Leiter Jr.
mark-leiter-jr-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.21 4.84 20.9% 8.1% 48.6% 26.5% 21.5%
L30 5 4.41 6.11 17.9% 5.7% 48.4% 25.8% 21.5%

Leiter is one of my favorite SP2 options in the slate tonight, which sounds a bit absurd. The reasoning is pretty simple. I want to play Chris Sale. In order to do so and not cannibalize the rest of my lineup, I need to pay down for an SP2. When you get down in that cheap price range, you’ll quickly realize that there aren’t many appealing plays. Leiter is one of the few with strikeout upside, so I may hitch my wagon to him. He draws a boom or bust matchup tonight against the A’s at home. While Oakland has plenty of power in their lineup, they also have the fourth highest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Leiter isn’t the safest play on the board, but he’s cheap and has strikeout upside. Sometimes that’s all it takes.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Even though I will have some exposure to Mark Leiter Jr. tonight, I plan to hedge that play with a few hitters from the A’s. Obviously, we want to make sure not to use our pitcher and the opposing offense in the same lineup. The sample size is still small, but Leiter has allowed a .314+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. My favorite one-off targets here are Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, and Matt Olson, who all boast a .365+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.333 0.309 0.147 24.3% 11.4% 22.7% 38.5% SS $3,900 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.361 0.372 0.261 32.7% 13.9% 20.6% 33.5% OF $4,100 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.346 0.368 0.172 36.3% 10.5% 14.8% 26.7% 2B $3,700 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
4 Matt Olson LEFT 0.411 0.380 0.373 43.2% 9.0% 27.8% 36.7% 1B $3,900 1B/OF $4,200 LF $8,000
5 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.325 0.331 0.254 34.2% 3.9% 29.3% 40.2% OF $2,700 OF/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
6 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.322 0.324 0.122 37.9% 13.2% 23.1% 45.7% C $3,000 C $3,400 C $6,800
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.352 0.285 0.280 36.0% 9.8% 29.3% 36.0% 3B $2,900 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
8 Boog Powell LEFT 0.337 0.275 0.121 24.0% 9.8% 23.2% 45.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Daniel Mengden RIGHT P $6,100 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Red Walkers jumped all over Vance Worley last night and will look to do the same to Daniel Mengden tonight. On paper, this isn’t an exciting offense outside of Rhys Hoskins, but we have a red-hot lineup facing a struggling pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. If that’s not good enough of a sales pitch, how about the fact that they are one of the cheapest stacks available in tonight’s slate? Every hitter in their projected lineup (with the exception of Hoskins) is priced below $4,000 on DraftKings and below $8,000 on FantasyDraft.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.324 0.303 0.160 27.8% 7.1% 22.0% 42.2% OF $3,900 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.305 0.290 0.143 27.6% 8.1% 19.3% 35.3% SS $3,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
3 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.433 0.360 0.333 44.4% 12.4% 21.6% 28.6% OF $4,500 1B/OF $5,300 1B $10,400
4 Nick Williams LEFT 0.350 0.328 0.212 40.0% 6.9% 27.7% 50.8% OF $4,100 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.384 0.332 0.242 38.6% 7.1% 29.3% 39.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.293 0.305 0.169 28.9% 6.4% 15.4% 44.1% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.290 0.283 0.224 27.1% 7.2% 35.9% 48.3% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.176 0.159 0.059 9.1% 0.0% 35.3% 45.5% SS $2,400 3B/SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Mark Leiter Jr. RIGHT 0.055 0.074 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 50.0% 87.5% P $6,700 P $6,400 P $12,600

Elite Plays – Freddy Galvis (DK & FDRFT), Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis (FD), Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
bostonmlb Chris Sale tampabaymlb Matt Andriese
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-175 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.244 0.264 16.5% 4.9% 30.1% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.254 0.293 41.1% 9.1% 22.7% 51.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.251 0.237 30.1% 4.9% 37.0% 37.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.401 0.359 39.1% 7.4% 18.2% 42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,800 Salary: $13,100 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.43 3.34 25.7% 5.0% 41.2% 31.7% 17.0%
2017 29 2.59 2.76 35.9% 4.9% 38.4% 27.7% 18.6%
L30 6 2.90 3.67 33.3% 6.1% 47.1% 25.3% 21.8%

Sale is having a magical season. In 29 starts, he owns a 2.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36% and a walk rate of 5%. He should be able to add to his already impressive resume with a win over the Rays tonight. There are few better matchups for a southpaw, as the Rays are ranked 27th in team wOBA and dead last in k-rate against left-handed pitching this season. To sweeten the pot, Sale gets to face them in Tropicana Field, which is by far the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in this division.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the top pitching option in the slate and an elite play in all formats.

Matt Andriese
matt-andriese-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 3.90 4.37 20.7% 4.7% 42.9% 34.3% 16.6%
2017 14 4.50 4.46 20.1% 8.1% 46.0% 39.9% 16.5%
L30 2 5.16 10.24 14.9% 8.5% 44.4% 36.1% 16.7%

Andriese has struggled in his last couple of starts and has mediocre numbers as a whole. In 14 outings this season, he has a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 8%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and draws a bad strikeout matchup against the Red Sox. While he does get to face them at home in a good ballpark, run support could be non-existent with Chris Sale pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Andriese in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox just need to score a few runs to give Chris Sale a lead. That’s really all that I’m asking from them tonight. Their matchup against Matt Andriese isn’t terrible, but it’s not exactly an exploitable one either. He has held left-handed hitters to a .293 xwOBA this season with a 23% strikeout rate. The right-handed bats have the edge splits-wise, but there are better matchups to target in a 14-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.316 0.265 0.140 29.7% 7.8% 19.9% 47.0% SS $3,400 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.338 0.317 0.102 25.7% 9.4% 10.2% 48.3% 2B $3,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.349 0.345 0.182 36.5% 9.9% 16.5% 37.4% OF $4,100 OF $5,200 LF $10,000
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.324 0.328 0.179 35.2% 9.8% 11.6% 40.2% OF $4,500 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.330 0.375 0.201 38.8% 10.1% 21.3% 41.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
6 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.328 0.356 0.179 35.0% 8.4% 20.6% 41.8% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.328 0.296 0.212 33.7% 8.1% 22.0% 51.2% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.266 0.266 0.124 31.8% 8.0% 26.6% 36.0% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.307 0.317 0.169 37.1% 8.4% 25.0% 42.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching and they are facing Chris Sale, who has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher in the slate. The Rays are a hard pass for me tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.286 0.243 0.106 24.7% 6.3% 27.6% 60.8% OF $3,700 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.296 0.319 0.253 42.9% 7.6% 30.4% 41.1% 1B $3,600 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.282 0.305 0.160 35.4% 12.4% 21.2% 47.8% 3B $3,000 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.339 0.323 0.205 27.2% 13.5% 24.1% 30.9% 1B $2,800 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.337 0.289 0.128 27.4% 14.9% 27.7% 45.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.313 0.284 0.140 27.0% 6.4% 12.8% 64.9% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,200
7 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.286 0.271 0.175 35.9% 4.4% 17.6% 46.0% SS $3,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
8 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.314 0.254 0.193 37.7% 6.4% 28.7% 47.5% OF $2,000 OF $2,400 CF $4,800
9 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.239 0.264 0.100 29.5% 7.1% 30.3% 45.0% 2B $2,000 2B $2,700 2B $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
whitesoxmlb Carson Fulmer detroitmlb Anibal Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-113 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.349 20.0% 19.4% 22.2% 15.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.315 31.5% 5.9% 17.0% 34.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.343 0.382 42.9% 5.3% 21.1% 15.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.437 0.356 42.3% 5.6% 20.9% 38.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carson Fulmer
carson-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 4.80 8.49 18.9% 13.2% 44.1% 29.4% 8.8%
2017 2 5.90 6.00 21.8% 14.6% 15.2% 29.4% 23.5%
L30 2 5.90 6.00 21.8% 14.6% 15.2% 29.4% 23.5%

Every time I see this name, my mind automatically reads it as “”(player-popup #carson-palmer)Carson Palmer”:/players/carson-palmer-11851.” The other Carson (Fulmer) will be making his third career major league start tonight. In 25 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 5.39 FIP with a strikeout rate of 17%. Yikes. Those are bad numbers at the major league level, let alone in the minors. Even though we have been streaming pitchers against the Tigers recently, tonight is a good time to hop off that train.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fulmer in all formats.

Anibal Sanchez
anibal-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.39 5.87 20.2% 7.9% 39.6% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 13 4.43 7.43 19.0% 5.7% 36.4% 36.8% 16.5%
L30 3 5.15 15.43 15.0% 5.0% 25.0% 40.6% 6.3%

Sanchez has not pitched well in his last three starts and is actually one of my favorite pitchers in baseball to stack against. He hasn’t walked as many batters this season, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. The White Sox offense looks a lot better now than it did a month ago. Rookies Yoan Moncada and Nick Delmonico have been productive, while Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia both provide home run upside.

Quick Breakdown: This game has sneaky shootout potential. I will be avoiding both starting pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox had one of their best offensive performances of the season yesterday. I like their chances to carry that over to tonight’s game against Anibal Sanchez. He has a low strikeout rate and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that tends to give up a lot of home runs. On the season, he has allowed a .356 xwOBA and a massive 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters, which makes Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia very intriguing plays. This is only for large-field tournaments, but I don’t mind the idea of a full White Sox stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.325 0.292 0.156 26.1% 6.7% 19.8% 46.1% 2B $4,000 2B/3B $4,000 2B $7,600
2 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.327 0.318 0.195 48.8% 17.9% 35.8% 44.2% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.353 0.348 0.243 39.4% 4.6% 17.4% 44.4% 1B $3,900 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
4 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.408 0.343 0.246 32.1% 14.5% 15.8% 38.0% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.344 0.350 0.177 31.4% 5.8% 21.5% 51.0% OF $4,100 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
6 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.297 0.294 0.254 40.4% 4.0% 41.2% 37.0% 3B $2,100 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,400
7 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.317 0.314 0.063 19.0% 12.3% 13.2% 42.9% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.268 0.260 0.153 29.0% 2.9% 27.1% 52.1% SS $3,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.223 0.229 0.117 31.4% 5.2% 37.2% 40.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 CF $6,600

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Yoan Moncada, Nick Delmonico

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are also an intriguing stack option that will fly under the radar. They are extremely cheap across the industry and they arguably have the best matchup in the slate. Carson Fulmer struggled in his time in the minors and is now being asked to pitch on the road in a major league game. I know the Tigers have let us down time and time again this season, but tonight feels like the night that they make amends.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.292 0.308 0.136 34.9% 8.9% 13.9% 35.8% 2B $2,900 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Alex Presley LEFT 0.327 0.300 0.090 31.5% 6.0% 17.9% 47.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.292 0.380 0.150 44.1% 9.3% 20.3% 40.6% 1B $2,800 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.307 0.347 0.169 44.3% 6.5% 23.9% 37.1% 3B $3,500 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.330 0.303 0.150 34.8% 6.6% 22.4% 49.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
6 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.296 0.270 0.125 28.6% 9.3% 24.1% 45.7% 3B $2,700 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.289 0.308 0.118 40.7% 6.5% 27.4% 36.8% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.234 0.228 0.082 28.6% 10.1% 37.7% 55.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,200
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.300 0.267 0.128 29.4% 4.3% 14.7% 52.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,400 SS $6,800

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Alex Presley, Mikie Mahtook, Jeimer Candelario, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious