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MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-01 02:06:59

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City Baltimore
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-102 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.209 0.224 23.4% 4.8% 29.1% 48.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.393 0.333 32.7% 11.5% 22.0% 43.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.322 35.7% 6.4% 22.2% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.332 33.5% 10.4% 17.9% 50.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
danny-duffy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 5 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.53 3.51 25.7% 5.8% 36.4% 36.6% 17.8%
2017 16 4.59 3.56 19.0% 6.8% 38.9% 29.0% 17.5%
L30 5 4.12 3.62 19.7% 2.4% 36.5% 30.6% 21.4%

Nobody likes Mondays, but at least we have an eight game slate on tap tonight to help ease the pain of starting a new work week. Duffy will take the mound for the Royals tonight, who are only two games behind the Indians in the American League Central. Duffy has a similar ERA to last season, but his SIERA is much higher and his strikeout rate is down nearly 7%. His velocity is down about two miles per hour and his swinging strike rate has taken a hit as well. Basically, we should stop expecting him to be the same pitcher as he was a year ago. With that said, that doesn’t mean that we still can’t target him in the right matchup. The Orioles are currently ranked 18th in team wOBA and 24th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. The high over/under takes him out of consideration in cash games, but he’s a sneaky tournament play on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Duffy has a wide range of outcomes tonight, but he provides good upside for tournaments at low ownership.

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 12 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 16 4.78 6.93 19.8% 10.4% 45.2% 36.4% 17.5%
L30 5 4.46 8.28 22.2% 9.4% 43.6% 40.5% 19.0%

Jimenez doesn’t fit the mold of what we are looking for in a starting pitcher. He has a high SIERA, a high walk rate, and a high hard contact rate. He’s also one of the worst in baseball at holding runners. Since the start of last season, he has allowed one stolen base per six innings pitched. The Royals’ numbers against right-handed pitching don’t look great as a whole, but they have been much better since the All-Star break. They also strikeout at a low rate, which doesn’t help Ubaldo’s floor or ceiling.

Quick Breakdown: Jimenez is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals aren’t an offense that we like to stack in DFS, but we may have to make an exception tonight. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they draw one of the best matchups in all of baseball. Since the start of last season, Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed a .332+ xwOBA and a 33% walk rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He also walks a lot of batters and allows a lot of stolen bases. The Royals should be busy on the bases tonight, we just need a couple of home runs and we have potentially have ourselves a GPP-winning stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.338 0.317 0.174 31.7% 4.1% 12.7% 37.6% 2B $3,700 2B $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
2 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.344 0.335 0.185 31.6% 9.7% 25.3% 40.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.342 0.320 0.138 30.3% 8.8% 18.6% 45.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.377 0.374 0.189 32.9% 9.7% 17.4% 50.0% 1B $3,700 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.365 0.355 0.254 40.3% 3.5% 20.0% 30.4% C $3,400 C $3,900 C $7,600
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.371 0.351 0.304 36.2% 4.9% 16.3% 30.8% 3B $3,600 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.270 0.301 0.184 33.9% 9.3% 33.2% 33.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.238 0.244 0.079 26.3% 1.7% 19.1% 40.4% SS $2,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.263 0.301 0.123 31.4% 8.3% 22.0% 40.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 LF $6,300

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Jorge Bonifacio, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have struggled against southpaws in each of the last two seasons. They may have a right-handed heavy lineup, but Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo have some serious reverse-splits. Their matchup against Danny Duffy is of the boom or bust nature. When he’s locked in, he can be tough to hit. When he struggles, he can allow a lot of hard contact. Since the start of last season, Duffy has allowed a .322 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop are the only two batters with elite numbers against right-handed pitching, but Trey Mancini and Welington Castillo are both worth a look as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.321 0.310 0.186 30.8% 6.3% 22.3% 37.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.315 0.388 0.214 50.6% 8.8% 18.4% 43.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.385 0.386 0.296 40.5% 8.3% 22.9% 43.2% 2B $3,800 2B $4,800 2B $9,300
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.302 0.271 0.148 29.6% 6.9% 23.3% 40.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.289 0.331 0.155 33.8% 3.7% 24.1% 49.4% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.314 0.335 0.163 34.0% 10.1% 38.4% 34.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.336 0.345 0.125 42.2% 4.5% 28.4% 33.3% C $2,800 C $3,600 C $7,200
8 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.297 0.298 0.077 36.4% 0.0% 15.4% 36.4% SS $2,200 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.302 0.278 0.100 29.7% 6.1% 18.4% 33.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 RF $6,400

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Detroit NY Yankees
detroitmlb Michael Fulmer nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-200 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.310 32.0% 6.9% 18.3% 47.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.317 29.9% 6.6% 23.6% 46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.279 27.4% 4.9% 19.9% 51.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.281 28.6% 7.1% 26.9% 51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 3 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18 Salary Rank: 8 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 20 4.29 3.35 17.5% 5.2% 50.0% 28.9% 17.8%
L30 5 4.65 3.86 13.1% 3.1% 49.1% 34.3% 17.6%

Fulmer is one of those pitchers that is typically overpriced thanks to a low ERA. Despite a higher SIERA and a below-average strikeout rate, we are forced to pay a premium for him. He’s not a bad pitcher by any means, but he’s better in actual baseball than he is in fantasy baseball. He has a high ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate, but he doesn’t rack up enough strikeouts. Add in a matchup against the Yankees on the road and he becomes an easy fade in all formats. On the season, New York is ranked third in team wOBA and fifth in walk rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is overpriced for a road start against the Yankees. He can be avoided in all formats.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $11,900 Salary: $23,100
Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 4.06 5.83 21.2% 8.0% 45.1% 29.4% 20.6%
2017 20 3.30 3.03 27.9% 6.2% 51.8% 29.1% 19.6%
L30 5 3.49 2.70 27.1% 5.7% 40.7% 30.8% 18.7%

Severino is shaping up to be the chalky pitcher in this slate. He is having a career year in pinstripes, posting a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% in 20 starts. He has an above-average ground ball rate and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. The Tigers may hit the ball hard, but they strikeout at a high rate and have a right-handed heavy lineup. Since the start of last season, Severino has held right-handed hitters to a .281 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate. He is a massive favorite at home and the top pitching option in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite play in all formats. He has major upside in a matchup against the right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium, but they draw a tough matchup against Luis Severino. In addition to a high ground ball rate and high strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. The Tigers are already making offseason plans and can be avoided tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.303 0.314 0.115 34.7% 10.4% 12.5% 32.9% 2B $3,200 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
2 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.344 0.316 0.139 34.6% 6.4% 21.8% 48.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.351 0.351 0.221 42.7% 12.5% 27.9% 36.8% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.314 0.385 0.184 46.0% 10.0% 20.1% 42.0% 1B $3,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.295 0.334 0.145 45.1% 7.3% 25.6% 40.9% 3B $2,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.308 0.375 0.133 43.5% 8.9% 13.0% 39.3% C $2,700 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.242 0.303 0.105 43.4% 8.3% 26.5% 39.0% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.328 0.350 0.174 57.1% 9.8% 21.6% 54.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,500 LF $4,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.284 0.251 0.110 30.2% 4.2% 13.8% 52.9% SS $2,600 SS $3,300 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

We have some truly awful pitchers taking the mound tonight, so even though the Yankees have a high implied run total, they aren’t an offense that I will be looking to stack in this slate. Since the start of last season, Michael Fulmer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez all have good numbers against right-handed pitching this season, but I see them as secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.373 0.348 0.233 36.6% 12.1% 18.9% 40.6% OF $4,100 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.332 0.344 0.263 48.8% 3.3% 28.3% 39.0% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.439 0.440 0.333 47.2% 14.8% 31.3% 38.6% OF $4,700 OF $5,100 RF $10,000
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.360 0.359 0.214 36.1% 7.7% 23.9% 43.9% C $3,800 C $4,800 C $9,300
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.374 0.280 0.239 25.9% 4.1% 13.1% 39.8% SS $3,800 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
6 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.328 0.348 0.224 30.5% 10.0% 24.6% 48.5% OF $2,600 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.356 0.336 0.134 30.4% 13.2% 23.1% 44.4% 1B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.316 0.346 0.181 28.7% 13.1% 21.6% 39.3% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.278 0.243 0.081 19.2% 2.4% 13.1% 48.9% 2B $2,400 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Washington Miami
washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez miamimlb Jose Urena
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.300 26.4% 7.6% 20.1% 55.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.352 31.9% 8.1% 11.1% 39.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.313 33.3% 9.0% 23.3% 44.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.323 33.1% 8.8% 20.6% 49.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $11,200 Salary: $21,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 18 Salary Rank: 3 of 18 Salary Rank: 3 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 21 4.42 2.81 23.0% 10.0% 45.7% 30.5% 21.5%
L30 5 3.84 2.65 23.7% 7.4% 54.3% 25.8% 18.3%

Gonzalez is another pitcher that is overpriced thanks to a low ERA. His SIERA is a full run and a half higher than his ERA this season, which suggests some regression moving forward. He does own an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate, but he’s pitching on the road against a low-strikeout Marlins’ offense. The over/under for this game is set at 9.0 runs, which is a red flag for both pitchers. The fact that Gio is barely favored in a game where Jose Urena is starting opposite him is another red flag. I’m not a Gio guy to begin with, but even if I was, I’m not sure this would be the spot to use him in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez isn’t the worst pitcher in the slate, but there are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 15 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 16 5.15 4.04 16.2% 9.0% 40.8% 32.5% 19.3%
L30 5 4.93 6.00 20.6% 11.2% 43.9% 39.1% 18.8%

Urena is one of the few pitchers taking the mound that we can automatically cross off our list of potential targets. With a SIERA over 5.00 and a strikeout rate of only 16%, he has more downside than upside. He’s a fly-ball pitcher with bad command and he allows a lot of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. To make matters worse, he is facing a Nationals’ offense that is ranked second in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Urena is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks, but they draw one of the best matchups in the slate. In addition to the low strikeout rate and high walk rate, Jose Urena has allowed a .323+ xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Nationals have one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and a quick glance at the table below shows that five of their projected starters have a .369+ xwOBA this season. A Washington stack could fly under the radar, which never hurts the appeal for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.308 0.304 0.230 32.8% 9.2% 25.9% 39.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.278 0.293 0.074 23.2% 8.7% 18.8% 55.8% SS $2,800 2B/SS $4,000 2B $7,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.468 0.442 0.360 36.5% 17.5% 16.2% 35.6% OF $4,900 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.388 0.374 0.252 40.0% 6.8% 21.2% 46.7% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.403 0.371 0.253 35.6% 8.1% 8.7% 32.6% 2B $4,000 2B $5,000 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.399 0.369 0.247 33.3% 14.1% 14.1% 36.8% 3B $3,600 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
7 Adam Lind LEFT 0.391 0.384 0.241 41.4% 8.5% 15.7% 44.8% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.276 0.290 0.113 31.6% 6.3% 20.1% 39.8% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.152 0.154 0.000 4.2% 4.8% 38.1% 55.6% P $8,700 P $11,200 P $21,600

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

When Gio Gonzalez takes the mound, I generally avoid him and the offense that he is facing. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Gonzalez himself, but he’s certainly a capable pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate and an ability to limit a lot of soft and medium contact. While I won’t have a lot of exposure to the Marlins’ offense tonight, there are three intriguing one-off targets that all bat from the right side and all mash left-handed pitching:

Giancarlo Stanton: .426 xwOBA, 37% hard contact rate
Marcell Ozuna: .343 xwOBA, 38% hard contact rate
J.T. Realmuto: .398 xwOBA, 37% hard contact rate

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.276 0.236 0.036 9.3% 1.7% 11.2% 68.8% 2B $3,700 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.416 0.426 0.397 36.5% 16.1% 16.1% 46.0% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.338 0.362 0.167 31.7% 5.5% 18.2% 57.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.349 0.343 0.114 38.3% 11.2% 21.3% 50.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.453 0.398 0.292 37.0% 14.3% 14.3% 40.7% C $3,400 C $3,600 C $7,200
6 Tyler Moore RIGHT 0.222 0.270 0.132 41.7% 2.6% 35.9% 54.2% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,400
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.234 0.286 0.038 22.7% 3.7% 14.8% 36.4% SS $2,300 3B/SS $2,200 2B $4,200
8 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.403 0.360 0.136 26.5% 5.8% 19.2% 47.1% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.000 0.116 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% P $6,200 P $5,600 P $11,100

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (Cash), Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Boston
clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger bostonmlb Doug Fister
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-105 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.324 28.6% 11.9% 23.9% 37.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.405 0.370 36.9% 9.6% 13.4% 37.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.325 35.5% 12.6% 25.2% 39.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.293 24.6% 7.8% 17.1% 52.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 5.26 21.5% 12.5% 38.2% 31.2% 18.2%
2017 13 4.30 3.20 27.2% 12.2% 38.6% 33.7% 15.7%
L30 4 4.54 2.42 24.5% 11.7% 38.3% 41.7% 16.7%

Clevinger looks great on paper with a 3.20 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate, but there are some red flags. His .251 BABIP and 81% LOB% are unsustainable and the 12% walk rate is eventually going to come back to bit him. His best weapon (the strikeout) may not be at his disposal against a Red Sox offense that has the fifth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Clevinger isn’t a pitcher that I want to stack against, but he’s not a pitcher that is on my radar either.

Quick Breakdown: In a tough road start against a low-strikeout Red Sox offense, Clevinger is an easy fade in all formats.

Doug Fister
doug-fister-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 18 of 18 Salary Rank: 18 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.97 4.64 14.8% 8.0% 45.3% 31.5% 19.7%
2017 4 5.65 7.46 17.2% 13.9% 39.2% 29.3% 20.7%
L30 3 5.97 8.38 15.5% 14.4% 36.5% 31.8% 24.2%

I always find it comical when these bad veteran pitchers continue to get starts at the major league level. You would think that these teams would have someone in their farm system that would make more sense, but apparently not. In four starts this season, Fister has a 5.65 SIERA (7.46 ERA) with a walk rate of 14%. To complicate matters, he is facing an Indians’ offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA and fourth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Fister is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

There is a decent chance that the Indians’ stack could get overlooked in tournaments tonight. With James Shields, Matt Cain, and Ubaldo Jimenez all taking the mound, there is no shortage of viable stack options. I prefer Cleveland over Boston and if the ownership projections on the Indians are low, I will fire up a number of full stacks in tournaments. In addition to the low strikeout rate, Doug Fister has allowed a .370 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters since the start of last season. The Indians have a favorable matchup, they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and they could potentially be under-owned. Sign me up.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.353 0.331 0.201 36.1% 10.3% 27.6% 45.1% OF $3,500 OF $5,200 CF $10,200
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.311 0.325 0.192 31.0% 7.7% 13.5% 39.4% SS $3,900 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.368 0.373 0.177 40.5% 10.4% 13.9% 47.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.358 0.367 0.244 37.8% 12.9% 22.0% 34.6% 1B $3,700 1B $5,300 1B $10,400
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.396 0.353 0.262 33.9% 8.0% 10.5% 37.2% 2B $3,600 2B/3B $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.349 0.372 0.206 35.8% 13.1% 19.9% 33.5% 1B $3,700 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.351 0.331 0.107 44.4% 11.9% 20.9% 43.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.267 0.278 0.078 25.5% 9.7% 25.0% 39.1% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,900
9 Erik Gonzalez RIGHT 0.348 0.265 0.154 20.5% 1.9% 24.5% 66.7% 2B $2,000 2B/SS $3,400 SS $6,800

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Bradley Zimmer, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox are going to score a few runs tonight. They aren’t going to get shutout against Mike Clevinger in Fenway, but I’m not sure they have enough upside to warrant a full stack. This is a team that puts the ball in play often, but they are ranked 20th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. If they stay patient, they should be able to draw some walks, but Clevinger is good at holding runners and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA since the start of last season. Mookie Betts is an excellent one-off target, but I plan to have very little exposure to the rest of this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.338 0.331 0.199 37.3% 9.7% 9.9% 40.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.338 0.273 0.131 24.9% 3.4% 9.5% 54.0% 3B $3,700 3B/OF $4,200 3B $8,100
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.335 0.338 0.164 36.9% 10.7% 16.1% 37.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.329 0.353 0.179 35.2% 7.9% 18.8% 44.4% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
5 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.316 0.336 0.173 39.5% 9.4% 23.5% 39.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.325 0.265 0.141 31.3% 7.5% 19.2% 48.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.320 0.377 0.185 42.0% 10.7% 23.5% 38.9% 1B $2,300 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.281 0.251 0.072 23.1% 4.5% 20.9% 47.7% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.394 0.526 0.273 40.0% 15.4% 7.7% 50.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,300 3B $6,600

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Seattle at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Seattle Texas
seattlemlb Felix Hernandez texasmlb Cole Hamels
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX-121 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.356 29.6% 9.6% 17.4% 50.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.301 31.0% 8.5% 19.7% 57.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.334 28.6% 8.1% 21.5% 47.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.328 33.9% 8.8% 21.7% 47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez
felix-hernandez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.63 3.82 18.6% 9.9% 50.2% 28.7% 16.6%
2017 12 4.00 4.08 22.0% 6.2% 45.0% 29.9% 21.1%
L30 5 4.07 3.34 25.2% 8.9% 40.5% 29.1% 27.9%

Hernandez has already surpassed my expectations this season. After a disappointing 2016 campaign, we expected him to continue to trend downward. While he will never be an elite pitcher again, a 4.00 SIERA and a 22% strikeout rate are nothing to be ashamed of. He still induces a lot of soft and medium contact and he still has good command. With all of that said, pitchers in Arlington typically don’t have a lot of success this time of year. It isn’t expected to be 100 degrees tonight, but this is still a good hitting environment.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog in a game that features an over/under of 10.5 runs, Hernandez is an easy fade in all formats.

Cole Hamels
cole-hamels-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 8 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.99 3.32 23.6% 9.1% 49.6% 32.0% 20.4%
2017 11 5.04 3.97 14.4% 7.8% 49.3% 36.9% 13.1%
L30 5 4.13 3.51 19.5% 4.7% 48.9% 39.4% 11.7%

Hamels may have an ERA under 4.00, but the worst is yet to come. His SIERA is above 5.00, he has a strikeout rate of only 14%, and he has allowed a hard contact rate of 37%. His swinging strike rate is at a career low (7.9%), as is his soft contact (13.1%). The .234 BABIP is not going to last much longer — the major league average typically hovers around .300. Hamels wouldn’t be on my radar regardless, but add in a matchup against the Mariners in bad pitching conditions and he’s one of the easiest fades in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hamels in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners have no chance of catching the Astros in the American League West, but they can still sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. There are some more notable gas cans on the mound tonight (Shields, Fister, Jimenez, Cain), but I will continue to stack against Cole Hamels for all of the reasons that I laid out above. It’s only a matter of time before he gets shelled and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens tonight. Hamels has historically struggled in this ballpark and against right-handed hitters. Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz are two of my favorite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.335 0.363 0.100 40.0% 10.0% 13.8% 33.9% SS $3,400 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
2 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.367 0.337 0.209 34.3% 12.0% 21.0% 41.8% 1B $2,800 1B $3,100 3B $6,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.290 0.317 0.128 29.4% 7.0% 13.3% 52.9% 2B $3,200 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.355 0.438 0.155 37.9% 18.9% 17.1% 40.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.332 0.310 0.185 27.9% 7.4% 19.0% 34.1% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
6 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.346 0.285 0.136 27.3% 6.3% 11.6% 41.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
7 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.373 0.281 0.169 37.7% 3.4% 27.0% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.348 0.355 0.250 41.2% 9.7% 35.5% 23.5% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,900
9 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.286 0.303 0.000 20.0% 12.5% 12.5% 75.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,600 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia, Robinson Cano, Mike Zunino

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

The Rangers hit a lot of extra-base hits. If you look at the projected lineup below, you will see that all nine players have a .180+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Felix Hernandez may not allow a lot of hard contact, but he has given up a .334+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters since the start of last season. The Texas stack is viable once again and you can look at the one through four batters in cash games. This isn’t related to tonight’s game, but I have to congratulate Adrian Beltre on reaching the 3,000 hit mark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.342 0.380 0.178 40.5% 13.5% 21.1% 46.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.351 0.304 0.183 29.3% 5.9% 17.2% 47.5% SS $3,500 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.339 0.332 0.198 33.5% 10.6% 19.3% 38.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.382 0.348 0.261 38.0% 8.2% 10.6% 48.9% 3B $4,000 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
5 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.299 0.320 0.229 37.3% 8.7% 30.8% 35.9% 1B $2,900 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
6 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.306 0.305 0.239 38.4% 4.3% 24.2% 39.2% 2B $2,900 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
7 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.347 0.339 0.230 44.4% 9.8% 30.3% 40.5% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.323 0.317 0.309 34.9% 7.3% 28.4% 38.5% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,400
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.353 0.347 0.332 43.0% 14.4% 36.0% 26.6% 1B $3,100 1B/3B $3,900 IF/OF $7,600

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious