MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-05 02:22:31

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET (GAME 1)

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Detroit
			Luis Severino							Drew VerHagen
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-240							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.258	0.302	40.7%	10.8%	36.0%	41.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.248	0.335	33.3%	15.8%	21.1%	58.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.235	0.295	29.8%	4.7%	26.9%	49.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.403	50.0%	17.4%	30.4%	25.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:		$20,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			Salary Rank:			Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%
	2018	12	3.03	2.31	30.3%	6.9%	47.1%	33.2%	22.1%
	L14	3	3.50	2.84	28.6%	9.1%	42.6%	45.8%	18.8%

We have a single early game on the schedule today and it is the first part of a double-header between the Yankees and Tigers. The salaries in the tables are for the showdown slates and the content will focus solely on recommendations for it. Severino and the Yankees are large favorites here and rightly so. They have the better starter, the better bullpen, and the better offense. In 12 starts this season, Severino has a 3.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He keeps the ball on the ground and induces a lot of soft and medium contact. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Tigers, who have a right-handed heavy lineup with an average strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: For the showdown slate on DraftKings, Severino is the top play at any position.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Drew VerHagen
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:			Salary:		$7,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			Salary Rank:			Salary Rank:
	2017	2	4.26	5.77	17.2%	6.2%	50.5%	44.1%	14.4%
	2018	0	4.53	6.30	26.2%	16.7%	41.7%	41.7%	12.5%

VerHagen is making his fourth career major league starts. He’s bounced in and out of the majors over the last four years, but mainly to pitch out of the bullpen. In his career at the major league level, he owns a SIERA over five with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside needed to succeed in a decent matchup, let alone one against the Yankees. New York’s confirmed lineup has a .373 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I would rather take a shot on Aroldis Chapman in hopes that he gets the opportunity for a save.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid VerHagen in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are the preferred offense to target in this single-game slate and they aren’t expensive as you would think. Aaron Hicks, Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius, and Miguel Andujar are all reasonably priced and all in good spots against Drew VerHagen. While the sample size is still relatively small and taken over the last four seasons, VerHagen has allowed a .379 xwOBA to lefties and a .325 xwOBA to righties in his major league career. My goal of the early slate is to play Luis Severino and get as many Yankees’ hitters into my lineup as possible. This is a situation where I would rather target players at the bottom of the order in a favorable matchup than ones at the top of the order in a difficult matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.350	0.422	0.188	41.6%	14.5%	18.8%	44.0%	OF	$7,000	OF	$6,700	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.442	0.468	0.336	46.5%	15.2%	26.3%	45.5%	OF	$9,500	OF	$11,300	N/A	N/A
3	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.224	0.287	0.267	44.4%	0.0%	40.0%	44.4%	1B	$6,500	1B	$7,000	N/A	N/A
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.296	0.346	0.129	33.3%	9.0%	32.9%	57.0%	OF	$9,000	OF	$10,000	N/A	N/A
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.345	0.239	0.281	43.1%	10.8%	14.6%	31.3%	SS	$8,500	SS	$7,900	N/A	N/A
6	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.381	0.434	0.206	39.0%	2.3%	20.8%	49.0%	3B	$6,000	3B	$7,200	N/A	N/A
7	Clint Frazier	RIGHT	0.472	0.582	0.500	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	OF	$5,000	OF	$6,000	N/A	N/A
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.423	0.569	0.219	33.3%	17.9%	20.5%	45.8%	C	$4,500	C	$5,400	N/A	N/A
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.423	0.507	0.296	39.0%	6.6%	26.4%	27.6%	2B	$8,000	2B	$9,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Romine, Gleyber Torres

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The question with the Tigers isn’t about the validity of the matchup — everyone knows that this is a bad spot for Detroit. However, we have play someone from this lineup, as we certainly aren’t going to be targeting any of their pitchers. If we look at Severino’s splits, there isn’t a lot to love. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of at least 27% against batters from both sides of the plate. He has, however, given up a 41% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, and Niko Goodrum are your best bets, even though they would normally be easy fades in a bigger slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.425	0.278	0.202	39.8%	8.5%	18.4%	33.7%	OF	$6,000	OF	$5,900	N/A	N/A
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.374	0.350	0.181	47.5%	4.1%	22.5%	33.6%	OF	$8,500	OF	$7,500	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.417	0.435	0.211	47.5%	13.3%	15.7%	59.3%	1B	$7,000	1B	$8,600	N/A	N/A
4	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.347	0.419	0.238	37.0%	10.7%	21.4%	42.4%	3B	$7,500	3B	$6,200	N/A	N/A
5	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.361	0.376	0.238	34.6%	8.7%	31.5%	45.5%	OF	$5,500	3B/OF	$5,700	N/A	N/A
6	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.290	0.242	0.168	45.5%	3.1%	29.6%	42.2%	C	$5,000	1B/C	$5,100	N/A	N/A
7	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.343	0.277	0.190	32.6%	3.0%	25.9%	39.1%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.268	0.319	0.086	23.7%	4.9%	12.9%	48.4%	SS	$5,500	SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.313	0.243	0.081	34.6%	6.8%	18.2%	45.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET (GAME 2)

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Detroit
			Domingo German							Mike Fiers
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-173							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.255	26.5%	7.0%	23.9%	44.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.367	0.364	33.3%	6.7%	15.4%	36.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	0.358	43.9%	15.4%	30.8%	36.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.325	34.3%	3.1%	15.3%	40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Domingo German
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$17,000
	Salary Rank:		6 of 8	Salary Rank:		3 of 8	Salary Rank:		3 of 8
	2017	0	3.93	3.14	29.0%	14.5%	54.5%	28.6%	25.7%
	2018	4	3.75	5.45	27.5%	11.4%	41.1%	34.4%	15.6%
	L14	2	3.40	8.68	29.6%	11.4%	60.0%	32.0%	20.0%

The biggest knock on German this season has been his pitch count, but he threw 104 in his last outing. Overall, he’s had an excellent season, posting a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He does have a high walk rate, but that’s not a huge concern in a four-game slate with limited pitching options. The projected lineup for the Tigers has five hitters with a strikeout rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching and with this being the second game of the double-header, there’s a chance that we see a watered down lineup from Detroit.

Quick Breakdown: German may not be the safest option on the board, but he’s my favorite play of the slate and I will be targeting him in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Fiers
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,300
	Salary Rank:		7 of 8	Salary Rank:		7 of 8	Salary Rank:		7 of 8
	2017	28	4.52	5.22	21.8%	9.2%	42.9%	30.1%	20.1%
	2018	10	4.65	4.45	15.3%	4.7%	39.0%	33.9%	16.7%
	L14	2	5.08	3.97	15.4%	7.7%	34.2%	27.5%	15.0%

Fiers is one of those pitchers that may not deserve more major league starts, but one that keeps getting them anyway. On the season, he owns a 4.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of medium and hard contact, which doesn’t bode well against a Yankees’ offense that leads the majors in both runs scored and home runs hit. As a large underdog in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs, we should have zero interest in Fiers tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Fiers in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the highest implied run total of the slate and they are playing on the road, which guarantees ninth-inning at-bats even if they are ahead. They draw an exploitable matchup against Mike Fiers, who has allowed a .364 xwOBA to lefties and a .325 xwOBA to righties this season. We should always like the Yankees when they are facing a fly-ball pitcher, especially when that pitcher has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter in baseball. A full Yankees’ stack is warranted in tournaments and we can load up on this offense in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.316	0.314	0.166	34.7%	13.6%	16.4%	49.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700	LF	$8,900
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.429	0.468	0.322	46.6%	14.4%	27.8%	44.7%	OF	$5,200	OF	$5,800	RF	$11,200
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.302	0.346	0.143	33.7%	9.1%	32.6%	57.1%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,100	RF	$10,100
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.357	0.285	0.254	37.1%	10.5%	25.0%	38.1%	C	$3,800	C	$4,600	C	$9,100
5	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.353	0.422	0.184	40.2%	13.7%	19.4%	42.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,600
6	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.301	0.274	0.262	37.5%	4.6%	44.6%	43.8%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,500
7	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.343	0.302	0.104	37.4%	10.7%	19.8%	42.2%	1B	$2,400	1B/2B	$3,500	2B	$6,300
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.393	0.434	0.231	39.8%	2.2%	20.9%	47.6%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,300
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.427	0.507	0.287	39.1%	6.1%	25.5%	27.0%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,900	2B	$9,000

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Tyler Austin, Neil Walker

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

Even though Domingo German is my favorite pitcher of the slate, I may end up making a Tigers’ stack that I throw into tournaments as a hedge. Statistically, this matchup actually bodes well for Detroit, as German is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .358 xwOBA, a 44% hard contact rate, and a 15% walk rate to right-handed hitters. Detroit has a right-handed heavy lineup and both Nick Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera own a .370+ xwOBA and a 47%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.433	0.278	0.222	39.8%	9.4%	18.1%	33.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.371	0.350	0.192	47.7%	4.0%	22.2%	32.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,400
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.420	0.435	0.192	49.2%	13.2%	15.4%	56.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.366	0.399	0.104	45.6%	9.2%	9.9%	36.8%	C	$2,300	1B	$3,000	1B	$5,600
5	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.346	0.419	0.230	36.2%	11.6%	21.9%	42.6%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,300
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.347	0.376	0.227	35.1%	9.3%	32.0%	43.9%	OF	$2,800	3B/OF	$3,600	1B	$7,400
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.294	0.360	0.073	34.7%	6.0%	20.1%	39.8%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.270	0.319	0.088	24.5%	4.7%	12.3%	48.5%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,800
9	Ronny Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.127	0.277	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$3,000	SS	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at LA Angels – 10:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								LA Angels
			Danny Duffy							Nick Tropeano
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAA-180							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.267	0.376	38.1%	7.0%	19.3%	29.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.352	45.3%	6.0%	17.9%	39.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.393	0.406	39.9%	11.5%	18.4%	34.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.353	41.3%	11.3%	22.7%	31.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Danny Duffy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:		5 of 8	Salary Rank:		8 of 8	Salary Rank:		8 of 8
	2017	24	4.31	3.81	21.4%	6.7%	39.5%	29.8%	17.8%
	2018	12	4.99	5.71	18.6%	10.7%	33.0%	39.5%	12.7%
	L14	2	5.13	1.32	18.0%	12.0%	38.2%	37.1%	11.4%

Duffy has had two solid fantasy outings in a row, but the advanced statistics don’t support it. In 12 starts this season, he has a 4.99 SIERA, an 11% walk rate, and a hard contact rate (40%) that is higher than his ground ball rate (33%). Others will see the last two starts and a $4,700 price tag on DraftKings and have interest, but I will gladly take a stance against Duffy tonight. I would much rather load up on the Angels’ offense, as they have the second highest implied run total of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not buying the resurgence of Duffy and will be avoiding him in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Tropeano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$16,300
	Salary Rank:		2 of 8	Salary Rank:		4 of 8	Salary Rank:		4 of 8

	2018	8	4.50	3.80	20.4%	8.8%	35.4%	43.3%	15.0%
	L14	2	3.54	2.13	23.4%	2.1%	34.3%	37.1%	20.0%

Tropeano isn’t a pitcher that I want to trust, but his numbers as a whole have been solid this season. He currently owns a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but some of that is negated in this ballpark. Angels Stadium is one of the toughest in baseball when it comes to home run production. He pitched well against the Royals earlier in the season and he checks into tonight’s game as a -180 favorite. There is no such thing as a safe pitching play tonight, but Tropeano is the closest to it.

Quick Breakdown: Tropeano is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are playing on the road in one of the worst hitting parks in baseball. They have the lowest implied run total, which doesn’t help their cause. This certainly isn’t a spot to stack the Royals (there are very few of those over the course of the season), but Nick Tropeano has allowed a .350+ xwOBA and a 40%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez are both viable one-offs, as they both own a .375+ xwOBA and a 47%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.335	0.337	0.094	37.5%	5.3%	12.8%	51.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.319	0.332	0.068	36.4%	11.4%	18.8%	41.0%	2B	$3,600	2B/OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,400
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.403	0.363	0.263	47.3%	8.1%	15.1%	30.8%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,500
4	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.376	0.382	0.200	51.0%	2.3%	14.8%	35.3%	C	$3,400	C	$4,100	C	$8,200
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.344	0.361	0.164	39.4%	10.7%	25.6%	45.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,500
6	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.366	0.354	0.134	35.1%	5.5%	19.5%	50.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,600
7	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.283	0.291	0.109	53.3%	8.0%	32.0%	33.3%	3B	$2,500	1B	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,700
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.292	0.281	0.057	31.3%	5.3%	9.4%	47.1%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,800
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.266	0.276	0.101	26.4%	4.1%	23.3%	36.7%	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,600	2B	$4,500

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Salvador Perez (FD), Mike Moustakas

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels

The Angels are right there with the Yankees as the top stack of the slate. As mentioned above, Danny Duffy hasn’t allowed many runs in his last two starts, but the peripheral statistics don’t support a positive change in fantasy production. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and he has a below-average strikeout rate. On the season, he has allowed a .406 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. If you are fading Mike Trout tonight, you are doing it wrong. He owns a .500 xwOBA with a .405 ISO against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.252	0.324	0.106	33.3%	4.1%	10.2%	31.0%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,400
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.500	0.605	0.405	38.7%	17.6%	21.6%	19.4%	OF	$5,500	OF	$6,000	CF	$11,200
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.295	0.263	0.071	42.3%	10.6%	34.0%	38.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,200
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.290	0.380	0.073	38.2%	4.5%	18.2%	35.3%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,700
5	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.353	0.377	0.089	34.6%	18.6%	5.7%	55.8%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,200
6	Shohei Ohtani	LEFT	0.242	0.323	0.036	22.2%	15.2%	30.3%	83.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
7	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.316	0.297	0.156	40.5%	7.5%	11.3%	23.8%	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,700	SS	$7,500
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.267	0.223	0.121	50.0%	5.3%	34.2%	33.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
9	Michael Hermosillo	RIGHT	0.301	0.384	0.250	66.7%	0.0%	50.0%	33.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Zack Cozart

Stackability – GREEN

Arizona at San Francisco – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								San Francisco
			Zack Godley							Derek Holland
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -105							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.334	27.7%	12.7%	20.4%	62.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.204	0.264	22.2%	9.1%	9.1%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.399	41.8%	9.7%	22.4%	41.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.358	0.382	43.9%	9.8%	21.6%	35.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Godley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,400
	Salary Rank:		1 of 8	Salary Rank:		1 of 8	Salary Rank:		1 of 8
	2017	25	3.67	3.37	26.3%	8.5%	55.3%	32.2%	18.6%
	2018	11	4.38	4.38	21.4%	11.2%	51.9%	34.6%	22.7%
	L14	2	5.28	7.71	20.0%	16.0%	53.3%	54.8%	6.5%

Godley has managed to sport an average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate, while yielding very little success this season. He currently owns a 4.38 SIERA with an 11% walk rate and a 34% hard contact rate. While he has struggled against the Giants in the past, this is still a favorable matchup on paper. The projected lineup for San Francisco has a .310 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. If you can overlook his recent form, Godley provides a high ceiling at potentially low ownership in a four-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Godley is an elite tournament play tonight against the Giants.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Derek Holland
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$10,900
	Salary Rank:		8 of 8	Salary Rank:		6 of 8	Salary Rank:		6 of 8
	2017	26	5.57	6.20	16.6%	12.0%	37.7%	38.4%	17.6%
	2018	11	4.70	4.94	19.4%	9.7%	38.6%	39.4%	18.9%
	L14	2	4.84	4.91	12.5%	8.3%	50.0%	29.7%	24.3%

If you look at his yearly statistics in the table above, Holland doesn’t have a single green or blue box. This is generally a big red flag. In his 11 starts this season, he has a 4.70 SIERA with a walk rate of 9% and a hard contact rate (39%) that is higher than his ground ball rate (38%). While he’s playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, the Diamondbacks should be better against southpaws than their current numbers indicate.

Quick Breakdown: Outside of a dart throw in a large GPP, Holland should be avoided tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have one of the best matchups on the board, but are playing in one of the worst ballparks for run production. On the season, Derek Holland has allowed a .382 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Nick Ahmed, Paul Goldschmidt, and J.R. Murphy are all elite plays at their respective positions. While a full stack isn’t that appealing in this ballpark, a mini three-man stack is certainly viable given how small the slate is.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.309	0.335	0.143	30.4%	17.1%	17.1%	68.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
2	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.317	0.324	0.305	36.2%	4.8%	19.4%	36.2%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.460	0.345	0.436	48.7%	13.8%	24.6%	30.8%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$8,500
4	J.R. Murphy	RIGHT	0.494	0.523	0.459	56.7%	0.0%	18.9%	20.0%	C	$2,600	C	$3,700	C	$7,500
5	David Peralta	LEFT	0.283	0.325	0.111	36.6%	7.1%	31.4%	63.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,300
6	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.296	0.220	0.098	33.3%	7.6%	28.8%	24.4%	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,300
7	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.310	0.353	0.179	40.6%	7.1%	10.7%	62.3%	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$2,800	SS	$5,500
8	Deven Marrero	RIGHT	0.330	0.183	0.077	42.9%	7.0%	27.9%	35.7%	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,700
9	Zack Godley	RIGHT	0.166	0.290	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%	P	$8,500	P	$10,200	P	$19,400

Elite Plays – Nick Ahmed, Paul Goldschmidt, J.R. Murphy (DK)

Secondary Plays – J.R. Murphy (FD), Jarrod Dyson, Chris Owings, Ketel Marte

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco

A matchup against a ground-ball pitcher that has an average strikeout rate isn’t typically appealing, but Zack Godley hasn’t been in the best of form recently. On the season, he has allowed a .334 xwOBA to lefties and a .399 xwOBA to righties. I’ll likely end up with more exposure to Godley than I will to the Giants’ offense, but Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and Andrew McCutchen all own a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.424	0.464	0.107	34.0%	9.2%	6.2%	47.2%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,000	2B	$5,700
2	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.353	0.312	0.093	35.4%	6.9%	15.4%	48.5%	C	$2,800	C	$4,000	C	$7,300
3	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.347	0.385	0.122	39.1%	5.0%	19.9%	39.8%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,200
4	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.362	0.302	0.144	47.1%	14.6%	20.3%	32.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,600
5	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.314	0.351	0.163	44.4%	3.3%	25.5%	39.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,700
6	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.315	0.277	0.137	45.1%	6.3%	29.1%	54.9%	3B	$2,200	1B/3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
7	Mac Williamson	RIGHT	0.320	0.258	0.205	35.7%	2.5%	27.5%	57.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	RF	$8,100
8	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.316	0.295	0.185	35.1%	3.5%	29.4%	46.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
9	Derek Holland	LEFT	0.041	0.037	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	66.7%	66.7%	P	$6,300	P	$5,600	P	$10,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Buster Posey (DK), Brandon Crawford, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								San Diego
			Julio Teheran							Clayton Richard
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SD -107							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.318	0.359	42.4%	15.3%	17.5%	35.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.254	0.277	26.1%	8.8%	23.5%	70.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.333	35.1%	6.5%	21.6%	40.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.345	41.5%	7.9%	18.6%	52.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$18,800
	Salary Rank:		3 of 8	Salary Rank:		2 of 8	Salary Rank:		2 of 8
	2017	32	4.89	4.49	18.6%	8.9%	40.0%	30.4%	21.1%
	2018	12	4.84	4.03	19.6%	10.9%	38.2%	38.6%	17.5%
	L14	2	5.66	3.46	13.5%	11.5%	43.6%	56.4%	7.7%

Teheran has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on over the last two seasons, but he actually deserves consideration tonight based on what the Padres’ offense looks like. As of now, San Diego is projected to have three lefties, five righties, and then their pitcher in their lineup. If that’s the case, Teheran becomes a viable option in tournaments and potentially even in cash games. On the season, Teheran has held righties to a .333 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate. We know that the Padres have a high strikeout rate and this is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Depending on what the Padres’ lineup looks like, Teheran could become an elite tournament play.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clayton Richard
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		4 of 8	Salary Rank:		5 of 8	Salary Rank:		5 of 8
	2017	32	4.06	4.79	17.6%	6.9%	59.2%	35.0%	17.3%
	2018	12	3.92	4.74	19.7%	8.1%	56.5%	38.3%	20.7%
	L14	2	4.04	4.15	17.3%	7.7%	66.7%	26.3%	23.7%

Richard has actually pitched fairly well recently. In his last six starts, he has a 3.25 SIERA with a 22% strikeout rate and an 11% swinging strike rate. While that’s something to keep an eye on moving forward, he draws one of the worst matchups of the slate. The Braves’ projected lineup has a .339 xwOBA and a 17% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. They have become a team to auto-fade mediocre pitchers against.

Quick Breakdown: Richard has pitched well recently, but a matchup against the Braves makes him an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are playing in a bad ballpark for offensive production and are facing a pitcher with a 57% ground ball rate. While I won’t have a lot of exposure to this offense, Clayton Richard has allowed a .345 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Ozzie Albies, Tyler Flowers, and Johan Camargo are all viable one-off targets. The lefties in this lineup are risky options, as Richard has held batters from the left side of the plate to a .277 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.268	0.301	0.031	29.6%	8.3%	15.3%	50.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.362	0.276	0.297	39.4%	3.8%	11.5%	37.9%	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,400	2B	$10,900
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.448	0.371	0.256	42.9%	10.1%	18.0%	38.1%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,500	1B	$11,000
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.351	0.301	0.188	36.6%	8.6%	15.1%	43.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,400
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.473	0.380	0.300	53.3%	25.9%	18.5%	46.7%	C	$3,100	C	$3,800	C	$7,600
6	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.342	0.408	0.162	40.0%	7.5%	17.5%	40.0%	3B	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$7,200
7	Charlie Culberson	RIGHT	0.269	0.352	0.114	26.7%	5.4%	13.5%	55.2%	SS	$2,000	3B/OF	$2,800	SS	$5,600
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.295	0.201	0.233	40.0%	11.8%	29.4%	31.6%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,700
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.244	0.162	0.000	12.5%	0.0%	11.1%	66.7%	P	$7,600	P	$9,800	P	$18,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Tyler Flowers, Johan Camargo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego

A matchup against Julio Teheran is always easy to break down. If the Padres pay any attention to splits of any kind, they will play as many lefties as possible tonight. On the season, Teheran has allowed a .359 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Any lefty that cracks this Padres’ lineup will be on my radar in tournaments, as they should fly under the radar, even in a four-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.277	0.202	0.091	11.7%	9.3%	11.3%	68.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
2	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.354	0.296	0.171	37.9%	12.1%	20.8%	58.6%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
3	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.284	0.393	0.076	36.9%	5.5%	22.5%	59.2%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
4	Christian Villanueva	RIGHT	0.278	0.357	0.158	29.4%	5.3%	26.7%	30.6%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,300
5	Franmil Reyes	RIGHT	0.304	0.403	0.162	41.7%	2.6%	34.2%	45.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,400
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.278	0.321	0.068	39.5%	10.2%	21.0%	49.5%	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,400
7	A.J. Ellis	RIGHT	0.317	0.432	0.083	41.4%	15.6%	17.8%	42.9%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,800
8	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.273	0.254	0.096	30.1%	8.5%	18.5%	57.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,900
9	Clayton Richard	LEFT	0.240	0.197	0.190	18.2%	0.0%	52.2%	33.3%	P	$7,200	P	$6,200	P	$12,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer, Freddy Galvis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 4th

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET (GAME 1)

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET (GAME 2)

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City at LA Angels – 10:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Arizona at San Francisco – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta at San Diego – 10:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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