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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 2nd

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-07-03 02:14:31

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz torontomlb Joe Biagini
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.292 33.9% 8.8% 24.9% 43.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.281 30.3% 7.1% 23.3% 56.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.284 31.0% 8.9% 26.8% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.269 22.5% 5.1% 18.7% 54.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 14 3.84 4.07 26.1% 8.0% 42.4% 32.4% 24.6%

Welcome to the Sunday MLB Grind Down. We have 15 games on the schedule. The first 10 are part of the early slate while the remaining five make up the afternoon/evening slate. With Max Scherzer on the late slate, the early slate doesn’t offer any pitcher in the super expensive category. That should leave us plenty of salary cap to find a decent pitcher and still get the bats we want.

We’ll kick things off with Drew Pomeranz who owns a 4.07 ERA, 26.1% K rate and 8% BB rate. Pomeranz has been solid this year. He doesn’t generate a massive amount of ground balls at 42.4% but does get soft contact at 24.6%. He’s allowing a .316 wOBA to LH and .290 wOBA to RH hitters. He’ll take on a Blue Jays offense that owns a 20.8% K rate, .323 wOBA and 98 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: While Pomeranz doesn’t have a great matchup against the Jays, he’s one of a few pitchers that we could use today in any format. I’ll personally be looking elsewhere for cash games but wouldn’t fault you for going with Pomeranz in cash games. This is just slightly more risk than I would want to take on. That said, there aren’t a lot of places today where you can find a 26.1% K rate.

Joe Biagini
joseph-biagini-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.45 3.06 21.0% 6.4% 52.2% 23.0% 17.7%
2017 9 3.69 4.45 20.3% 5.4% 58.2% 28.7% 18.8%

In nine starts this season, Joe Biagini owns a 4.45 ERA, 20.3% K rate and 5.4% BB rate. Biagini generates an elite level of ground balls at 58.2%. He’s mainly struggled with LH hitters owning a .322 wOBA vs. LH compared to .268 vs. RH hitters. The main issue here is that he’ll face a Red Sox team that owns an 18.5% K rate, .321 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I have no doubt that Biagini’s ground ball skills should limit the damage here but there’s almost no strikeout upside against a Red Sox team that owns an 18.5% K rate. I think we can do better elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Ideally, we would want Boston LH batters that can avoid ground balls as Biagini owns a .322 wOBA vs. LH. The closest we really come there is Mitch Moreland who owns a .321 wOBA vs. LH and a 39.4% ground ball rate. Mookie Betts is somewhat interesting here as well. He owns a .373 wOBA vs. RH pitching. We’re not getting a massive discount on the Boston bats here though which makes them better suited for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.373 0.335 0.204 34.3% 8.3% 10.4% 41.9% OF $3,900 OF $5,400 RF $10,800
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.344 0.322 0.118 31.8% 7.8% 9.5% 50.2% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $8,400
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.350 0.296 0.152 31.2% 7.3% 16.9% 46.9% SS $3,400 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.321 0.365 0.202 39.8% 8.5% 23.3% 39.9% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
5 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.355 0.341 0.197 37.8% 8.7% 15.3% 35.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,800
6 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.340 0.342 0.183 37.1% 9.3% 19.6% 48.2% 1B $3,300 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,700
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.362 0.368 0.241 38.2% 11.1% 20.9% 44.7% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 CF $8,400
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.267 0.252 0.072 29.2% 3.4% 22.3% 58.1% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.128 0.171 0.014 23.9% 6.3% 36.3% 65.9% SS $2,400 3B $2,700 3B $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mitch Moreland and Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Toronto

Other other side of this game, Drew Pomeranz owns a .316 wOBA vs. LH and .290 wOBA vs. RH hitters. We normally love playing Josh Donaldson against LH pitchers as he owns a .406 wOBA but he’s not the ideal play here. Honestly, none of the Jays really stand out. Jose Bautista owns a 35.9% hard contact rate vs. LH but it is coupled with a .287 wOBA. We could see that number correct though as his xwOBA is .341.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.287 0.341 0.149 35.9% 13.9% 20.6% 45.3% OF $3,900 OF $3,700 RF $8,400
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.313 0.361 0.161 42.7% 15.8% 28.1% 40.6% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $6,300
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.406 0.414 0.245 38.9% 18.6% 13.8% 34.9% 3B $3,600 3B $3,700 3B $7,800
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.345 0.368 0.171 34.4% 9.8% 15.3% 40.2% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $9,600
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.387 0.399 0.233 40.6% 4.5% 20.1% 39.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,100 1B $6,600
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.301 0.316 0.155 29.8% 9.1% 15.2% 46.8% SS $2,800 SS $3,000 SS $6,400
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.398 0.366 0.287 44.1% 12.1% 23.5% 38.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 1B $6,400
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.351 0.319 0.175 35.0% 3.9% 14.0% 37.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.309 0.292 0.077 24.4% 8.1% 17.4% 42.1% SS $2,100 2B/3B $2,400 2B $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson and Joe Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger detroitmlb Justin Verlander
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.315 25.7% 12.6% 22.9% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.282 28.3% 9.0% 29.7% 30.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.352 0.343 35.0% 12.6% 24.4% 37.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.308 34.5% 6.5% 23.1% 36.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 5.26 21.5% 12.5% 38.2% 31.2% 18.2%
2017 8 4.43 3.86 26.7% 12.8% 38.6% 30.4% 15.7%

Through eight starts this season, Mike Clevinger owns a 3.86 ERA, 26.7% K rate and 12.8% BB rate. His struggles have mostly been against RH hitters where he owns a .352 wOBA. He’s be decent against LH with a .284 wOBA. He’ll take on a Tigers offense that owns a 22.8% K rate, .319 wOBA and 97 wRC+ against RH pitching. The main concern with Clevinger is his 12.8% BB rate and 35% hard contact against RH hitters.

Quick Breakdown: This matchup is probably a little too difficult to use Clevinger. There aren’t a lot of ideal spots for pitching today but we should be able to find someone with similar ability in a better matchup.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.42 3.04 28.1% 6.3% 33.7% 28.9% 19.7%
2017 15 4.78 4.52 22.3% 11.2% 34.0% 37.8% 14.6%

Through 15 starts this season, Justin Verlander owns a 4.52 ERA, 22.3% K rate and 11.2% BB rate. It’s concerning that we’ve seen Verlander’s strikeouts drop this season. Especially given that he’s only getting ground balls at 34% while allowing had contact at 37.8%. He’ll take on an Indians offense that owns a 19.9% K rate, .331 wOBA and 104 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Given that we still have to pay for Verlander’s name value, I have very little interest here. The Indians are a low strikeout offense with plenty of power that could make Verlander pay.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The ideal options here are the LH bats that generate plenty of hard contact. The Indians are best suited for tournaments though. Someone like Jason Kipnis could make some sense as he owns a .341 wOBA and gets hard contact at 37.5%. Francisco Lindor makes some sense as well even though he’s getting hard contact at 27.2%.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.341 0.344 0.193 37.5% 9.2% 19.7% 37.0% 2B $3,100 2B $4,400 2B $7,800
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.341 0.342 0.167 27.2% 8.9% 12.2% 46.1% SS $3,700 SS $4,700 SS $8,400
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.337 0.348 0.138 40.0% 9.6% 14.0% 51.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.367 0.382 0.260 38.0% 11.0% 20.7% 38.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 1B $9,000
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.373 0.343 0.187 28.8% 7.5% 9.6% 38.4% 3B $4,100 2B/3B $5,300 IF/OF $9,600
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.347 0.313 0.192 29.5% 5.6% 16.1% 33.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 RF $8,000
7 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.371 0.398 0.256 37.1% 15.4% 17.0% 35.6% 1B $3,300 1B $4,300 1B $7,600
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.386 0.368 0.234 34.0% 11.5% 27.6% 40.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,200
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.219 0.259 0.131 28.6% 4.8% 27.1% 38.8% C $2,400 C $2,700 C $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Detroit

The ideal options against Mike Clevinger are Rh hitters as they own a 34.5% hard contact rate and .352 wOBA. Even though Alex Avila is a LH hitter we’ll consider him against almost any RH pitcher as he owns a .387 wOBA and .49.4% hard contact rate. Ian Kinsler is your next best option here as he owns a .341 wOBA vs. RH pitching. If you’re stacking the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez make sense but that would be best suited for large tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.341 0.327 0.174 35.0% 7.3% 15.4% 33.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,600 2B $8,400
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.387 0.405 0.231 49.4% 17.3% 33.5% 38.6% C $3,100 1B/C $3,400 C $7,600
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.349 0.229 39.7% 9.2% 28.5% 37.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 LF $9,000
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.381 0.447 0.239 42.0% 10.3% 17.1% 41.4% 1B $4,000 1B $3,600 1B $8,700
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.375 0.399 0.244 42.3% 10.5% 26.4% 42.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 RF $9,600
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.337 0.386 0.174 41.4% 8.7% 14.4% 37.6% 1B $2,800 1B $2,900 1B $6,800
7 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.345 0.378 0.185 40.3% 7.0% 25.1% 35.5% 3B $2,800 3B $3,400 3B $7,500
8 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.223 0.231 0.092 35.7% 4.6% 38.3% 41.7% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 CF $6,300
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.267 0.255 0.071 19.2% 4.6% 12.7% 55.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 SS $5,400

Elite Plays – Alex Avila and Ian Kinsler

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia NY Mets
philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta nymetsmlb Rafael Montero
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-154 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.295 30.0% 13.6% 24.7% 38.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 0.354 27.3% 16.4% 19.2% 37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.397 0.377 41.8% 7.8% 25.5% 36.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.355 0.340 30.3% 13.9% 24.3% 46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.29 4.46 25.1% 10.4% 37.1% 36.8% 12.0%

Through eight starts this season, Nick Pivetta owns a 4.46 ERA, 25.1% K rate and 10.4% BB rate. He generates a low amount of ground balls at 37.1% while allowing quite a bit of hard contact at 36.8%. When you put all that together you get a .308 wOBA vs. LH and .397 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He’ll face a Mets offense that owns a 19% K rate, .328 wOBA and 104 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: We don’t need to spend a lot of time on Nick Pivetta. Even with a 25.1% K rate he’s not someone we want to consider. He allows way to much hard contact to be useful in DFS.

Rafael Montero
rafael-montero-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 5.40 8.05 21.5% 17.2% 35.7% 31.6% 17.5%
2017 3 4.73 5.63 22.6% 13.6% 46.2% 27.6% 17.4%

Rafael Montero owns a 5.63 ERA, 22.6% K rate and 13.6% BB rate trough three starts this season. While the ERA is higher than we would like, Montero is getting ground balls at 46.2%. He draws an excellent matchup against a Phillies team that owns a 23.8% K rate, .298 wOBA and 81 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: With the lack of great options today, it makes quite a bit of sense to pay down at pitcher with Montero. He’s priced 27 of 30 on FD and 28 of 30 on DK. He’s viable in both cash games and tournaments on this slate though he’s best deployed as an SP2 on DK.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

If you want to go against Montero, he does own a .406 wOBA vs. LH and .355 wOBA vs. RH hitting. Someone like Odubel Herrera who owns a .337 wOBA vs. RH pitching could make some sense here. Even Tommy Joseph could work as he owns a .320 wOBA vs. RH pitching. The main issue is that we really don’t need the savings that the Phillies offer on this slate. That makes them best suited for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.337 0.311 0.154 29.6% 8.3% 20.3% 42.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.302 0.274 0.175 28.0% 5.7% 21.1% 40.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.310 0.294 0.141 33.7% 8.8% 31.0% 46.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 LF $7,800
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.320 0.323 0.198 38.3% 5.2% 23.2% 42.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 1B $6,800
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.290 0.319 0.146 28.7% 6.6% 16.2% 45.7% 3B $3,000 3B $3,200 3B $6,800
6 Nick Williams LEFT OF $2,000 OF $2,900 LF $6,300
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.345 0.339 0.171 38.5% 12.5% 28.4% 59.6% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,600
8 Ty Kelly SWITCH 0.260 0.279 0.127 30.8% 11.0% 17.8% 40.4% 2B $2,300 3B/OF $2,400 IF/OF $5,200
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.219 0.127 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 22.2% 60.0% P $6,400 P $7,300 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera and Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Mets

The ideal options against Nick Pivetta are normally RH hitters as he owns a .397 wOBA and 41.8% hard contact. The Mets usually roll out a LH heavy lineup which is fine too. Pivetta owns a .308 wOBA vs. LH hitters. The best option here is Yoenis Cespedes as he owns a .362 wOBA and 39.4% hard contact against RH pitching. You can honestly use any of the Mets expected top five batters today though. They all own 35% or better hard contact rate against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.345 0.341 0.238 36.3% 13.2% 19.9% 33.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.341 0.329 0.199 35.2% 7.8% 17.7% 38.2% 2B $3,000 SS $4,200 SS $8,400
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.362 0.360 0.243 39.4% 7.8% 19.5% 35.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,700 LF $8,700
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.375 0.368 0.296 42.0% 9.2% 20.5% 35.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,900 RF $9,900
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.363 0.390 0.247 41.4% 12.7% 21.8% 31.8% 1B $3,100 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
6 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.303 0.293 0.147 30.1% 6.1% 15.4% 37.2% 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,900 3B $7,800
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.264 0.265 0.120 25.6% 7.6% 16.5% 38.2% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,700 SS $7,600
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.257 0.304 0.098 31.3% 4.9% 25.9% 44.6% C $2,800 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Rafael Montero RIGHT 0.000 0.078 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% P $6,600 P $4,800 P $13,800

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera and Lucas Duda

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
cubsmlb Jake Arrieta cincinnatimlb Tim Adleman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-129 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.326 30.5% 12.5% 24.4% 47.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.312 30.2% 8.8% 17.6% 29.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.263 0.269 25.2% 5.5% 24.0% 51.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.325 36.3% 8.0% 19.8% 43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.94 3.10 23.9% 9.6% 52.6% 25.2% 22.9%
2017 15 3.84 4.36 24.7% 6.9% 44.0% 32.4% 20.8%

Through 15 starts this season, Jake Arrieta owns a 4.36 ERA, 24.7% K rate and 6.9% BB rate. We’ve seen Arrieta decline a bit this season as his ground ball rate dropped from 52.6% to 44%. Most of Arrieta’s struggles are against LH hitters as he owns a .301 wOBA vs. LH compared to .263 vs. RH hitters. The Reds are a pretty average offense against RH pitching with a 20.9% K rate, .332 wOBA and 101 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: What you do with Arrieta largely depends what site you are playing on. On FanDuel where he’s priced 3 of 30 he’s only a tournament option. On DK and FTD where’s he’s priced 12 or 13 he’s a much better option. Arrieta pitched a no-hitter against these same Reds last season. While his skills have declined this year he still has the ability to dominate this matchup.

Tim Adleman
tim-adleman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 4.87 4.00 16.4% 7.0% 36.4% 35.4% 14.0%
2017 12 4.70 4.30 21.1% 9.7% 38.1% 31.5% 16.2%

Tim Adelman owns a 21.1% K rate, 4.3 ERA and 9.7% BB rate through 12 starts this season. He owns a .332 wOBA vs. LH and .327 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He doesn’t necessarily do anything well but it’s not like the Reds have a lot of great options in their rotation. Adelman will take on a Cubs offense that owns a 22.6% K rate, .306 wOBA and 86 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: While the Cubs haven’t been the offensive juggernaut they were last year they still feature plenty of power in this lineup. Adleman can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Adelman has been pretty splits neutral with a .332 wOBA vs. LH and .327 vs. RH hitting. We can use Cubs from either side of the plate here. Anthony Rizzo is the top option though with a .389 wOBA and .254 ISO vs. RH pitching. Kris Bryant and Ian Happ are also elite options based on their ability to hit RH pitching. I also like the idea of using Jon Jay for salary relief but I’m not sure that’s entirely necessary on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.383 0.254 36.3% 12.8% 15.4% 36.5% 1B $4,200 1B $5,300 1B $9,300
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.347 0.237 36.2% 10.6% 22.9% 31.6% 3B $4,000 3B $5,000 IF/OF $8,800
3 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.374 0.353 0.313 35.4% 10.6% 31.0% 45.3% 2B $3,300 2B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $7,600
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.349 0.366 0.177 33.9% 15.3% 11.8% 46.9% OF $2,800 2B/OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,100
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.308 0.192 33.5% 9.0% 27.7% 53.7% C $3,300 C $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.301 0.293 0.165 28.9% 7.3% 22.5% 43.3% SS $2,700 SS $4,200 SS $6,800
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.298 0.267 0.156 29.2% 2.1% 25.7% 44.9% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $3,700 2B $6,800
8 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.276 0.254 0.095 27.8% 5.1% 20.2% 51.9% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,400
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.239 0.239 0.171 32.5% 2.7% 42.5% 44.7% P $9,400 P $7,500 P $15,000

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Ian Happ

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Cincinnati

With so many hitting options available going contrarian with the Reds against Jake Arrieta isn’t an idea strategy. If you are going here, you want to target Arrieta with LH hitters as he owns a .301 wOBA and 30.5% hard contact rate. That leads us to Joey Votto who owns a .401 wOBA vs. RH pitching. You could also get away with Scooter Gennett who owns a .353 wOBA vs. RH pitching over the past 13 months.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.299 0.250 0.077 17.9% 8.8% 20.0% 47.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 CF $8,000
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.339 0.302 0.182 29.4% 9.3% 17.1% 39.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.421 0.436 0.254 39.6% 17.4% 14.0% 36.6% 1B $4,400 1B $5,400 1B $10,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.332 0.323 0.251 36.1% 5.9% 26.9% 33.3% OF $3,700 OF $5,100 IF/OF $9,600
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.313 0.315 0.155 33.1% 8.3% 23.5% 41.1% 3B $2,700 3B $3,800 3B $7,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.346 0.339 0.224 36.8% 8.4% 21.7% 49.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $6,900
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.322 0.303 0.186 21.3% 8.3% 20.2% 40.0% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,200
8 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.303 0.296 0.087 20.6% 1.7% 14.1% 43.1% SS $2,100 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
9 Tim Adleman RIGHT 0.078 0.097 0.037 11.1% 0.0% 40.0% 69.2% P $7,500 P $5,600 P $11,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

San Francisco Pittsburgh
sanfranciscomlb Jeff Samardzija pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -118 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.319 29.2% 5.9% 22.5% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.295 25.4% 6.8% 15.5% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.281 32.0% 5.0% 22.7% 49.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.362 34.7% 7.3% 17.6% 44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija
jeff-samardzija-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,400
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.13 3.81 20.1% 6.5% 46.5% 31.5% 18.1%
2017 15 3.16 4.74 27.7% 3.2% 41.5% 28.6% 22.8%

Through 15 starts this season, Jeff Samardzija owns a 4.74 ERA, 27.7% K rate and 3.2% BB rate. The increase in strikeouts and reduction in walks has made Samardzija a viable DFS option this season. He’ll take on a Pirates offense that owns an 18.5% K rate, .311 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against RH pitching. That’s the main drawback here. The Pirates K rate ranks 29th. The good news is that we haven’t see Samardzija’s price elevated to match his K rate. The main reason for that seems to be that his ERA is holding it down.

Quick Breakdown: With the lack of pitching options today, it makes sense to pay up for Samardzija even in what isn’t an ideal matchup for strikeouts. He’s viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 9 4.77 5.09 16.3% 6.8% 42.2% 30.0% 25.3%

Through nine starts this season, Trevor Williams owns a 5.09 ERA, 16.3% K rate and 6.8% BB rate. He owns a .347 wOBA vs. LH and and .342 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He’ll take on a Giants offense that owns a 19.4% K rate, .293 wOBA and 82 wRC+ against RH pitching. That K rate puts the Giants 25th while their wRC+ ranks them 28th ahead of only the Phillies and Rockies. Also, the Giants .129 ISO is dead last.

Quick Breakdown: Even as bad as the Giants offense is, Trevor Williams really doesn’t have any upside here. His 16.3% K rate blended with the Giants 19.4% K rate says we probably won’t see a lo of strikeouts.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

We can attack Trevor Williams with hitters from either side of the plate as he owns a .347 wOBA vs. LH and .342 vs. RH hitters. The only problem is the Giants really don’t have a lot to offer. Someone like Brandon Belt is worth a look though as he owns a .369 wOBA vs. RH and a 38.4% hard contact rate. Denard Span is also viable as he almost never strikes out at 12.1%. That said, the Giants are best suited for tournaments as we don’t need the salary relief they offer here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.335 0.337 0.148 26.2% 8.0% 12.1% 47.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 CF $8,400
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.316 0.333 0.162 26.6% 9.5% 8.3% 44.8% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,500
3 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.325 0.313 0.114 28.6% 8.3% 21.0% 59.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 RF $7,200
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.340 0.366 0.138 33.8% 8.9% 11.2% 48.1% C $3,600 1B/C $4,400 C $8,700
5 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.369 0.395 0.211 38.4% 16.5% 22.3% 26.7% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.312 0.326 0.164 34.3% 8.7% 18.8% 44.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,100 SS $5,600
7 Jae-gyun Hwang RIGHT 3B $2,300 3B $2,700 3B $5,600
8 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.338 0.303 0.132 17.1% 6.8% 20.3% 65.9% OF $2,700 OF $2,500 RF $5,100
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.188 0.180 0.125 30.0% 1.5% 39.7% 47.2% P $8,900 P $8,400 P $18,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt and Denard Span

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Pittsburgh

The Pirates against Jeff Samardzija are another spot we can probably avoid today. If attacking Samardzija, you want LH hitters as he owns a .322 wOBA vs. LH. Josh Bell is probably the best we can do here as he owns a .351 wOBA vs. RH pitching. I’ll personally be avoiding the Pirates in pretty much all formats though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.330 0.331 0.131 31.7% 9.0% 14.6% 46.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 IF/OF $7,600
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.308 0.289 0.111 28.4% 4.3% 14.9% 42.7% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $4,300 2B $7,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.327 0.339 0.170 34.9% 9.7% 20.8% 37.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.351 0.356 0.205 33.3% 12.4% 17.0% 50.4% 1B $2,700 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.317 0.325 0.127 31.6% 9.3% 26.1% 59.1% 3B $2,700 3B $3,000 3B $5,400
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.326 0.339 0.188 32.9% 8.9% 16.7% 39.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 RF $6,600
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.311 0.299 0.121 25.9% 8.3% 14.7% 49.3% SS $2,400 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
8 Chris Stewart RIGHT 0.252 0.275 0.078 22.2% 9.0% 13.5% 43.8% C $2,000 C $2,100 C $3,900
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.000 0.129 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 43.8% 42.9% P $7,700 P $5,100 P $12,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.