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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 11th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-12 02:14:54

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman nyyankeesmlb Chad Green
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.313 32.9% 7.2% 20.9% 38.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.386 0.364 38.8% 8.8% 31.6% 32.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.368 0.346 31.2% 6.9% 20.6% 48.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.321 37.9% 6.4% 25.5% 43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 13 5.10 5.86 15.2% 9.0% 43.7% 33.9% 18.0%

Kevin Gausman has a 5.86 ERA this season along with a 15.2% K rate and 9% BB rate. The drops in strikeouts from last season to this season is backed by a corresponding drop in SwStr rate which is down to 8.4%. Gausman is allowing a .339 wOBA to LH hitters and .412 wOBA to RH hitters. He’s getting hit plenty hard and 35.1 and 33.1% to LH and RH batters respectively. He’ll take on a Yankees offense that is one of the best in baseball right now. They own a 22.4% K rate, .351 wOBA and 120 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: After the Yankees scored 16 runs last not against Chris Tillman and company it’s hard to have any confidence in Kevin Gausman. There are plenty of better options until he returns to form.

Chad Green
chad-green-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 3.58 4.73 26.3% 7.6% 41.3% 38.5% 16.2%
2017 0 2.42 1.62 35.1% 7.0% 31.3% 37.5% 15.6%

The Yankees have elected to start Chad Green today. The main reason for the move is because Masahiro Tanaka has struggled mightily against the Orioles. Green has pitched 16.2 innings out of the bullpen with a 1.62 ERA, 35.1% K rate and 7% BB rate. He’s shown some fly ball tendencies in the majors but that wasn’t the case in the minors. He’ll take on an Orioles lineup that has a 22.7% K rate, .311 wOBA and 92 wRC+ against RH pitching. The main problem with Green is that his season high in pitches is 48. He said earlier this week that he thought he could give the Yankees a little more than 45 pitches in a spot start. For reference, an average MLB inning is around 15 pitches. It’s hard to imagine Green last longer than about four innings which wouldn’t earn him a win or quality start.

Quick Breakdown: Green has excellent numbers with a .214 wOBA vs. LLH and .182 vs. RH hitters. If he were fully stretched out he would be an intriguing option. He’s best avoided though when we’re realistically looking at 45-50 pitches here.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have a somewhat difficult matchup against Chad Green and the Yankees bullpen. The one positive is that they were priced for a matchup with Masahiro Tanaka so there is some value available. Seth Smith owns a .337 wOBA against RH pitching. Mark Trumbo checks in at .372. Even though Green has been great out of the bullpen, you could get away with a low-owned Orioles stack today. If they can chase Green out early they might be able to find a favorable matchup in the bullpen.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.337 0.367 0.174 33.0% 10.7% 21.2% 45.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.340 0.341 0.197 32.4% 5.3% 16.2% 43.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.342 0.356 0.239 35.0% 6.8% 19.4% 37.8% 3B $3,800 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.372 0.379 0.262 37.6% 8.3% 23.2% 40.0% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.345 0.350 0.263 42.4% 13.6% 35.1% 36.6% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.340 0.315 0.203 29.2% 3.2% 19.5% 42.3% 2B $3,300 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
7 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.355 0.348 0.119 29.5% 9.6% 14.9% 51.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.279 0.286 0.110 29.6% 4.6% 17.1% 44.1% SS $2,300 SS $2,200 SS $4,300
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.240 0.261 0.068 23.7% 3.3% 21.2% 43.8% C $2,200 C $2,200 C $4,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith and Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Yankees

After the Yankees scored 16 last night, there’s no doubt taht you can use some options here against Kevin Gausman. . He’s getting hit plenty hard and 35.1 and 33.1% to LH and RH batters respectively. He’ll take on a Yankees offense that is one of the best in baseball right now. They own a 22.4% K rate, .351 wOBA and 120 wRC+. Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are your top options here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.347 0.328 0.155 30.7% 12.3% 17.4% 47.7% OF $3,500 OF $5,000 LF $9,900
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.338 0.310 0.153 25.4% 12.5% 17.7% 46.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.397 0.393 0.296 48.9% 11.4% 34.1% 38.7% OF $4,600 OF $5,300 RF $10,200
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.348 0.354 0.214 35.9% 9.0% 20.3% 50.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.328 0.303 0.173 31.2% 3.4% 19.3% 49.9% 2B $3,100 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
6 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.413 0.374 0.298 38.7% 8.5% 22.9% 48.6% C $3,800 C $5,100 C $10,000
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.311 0.265 0.179 24.9% 3.1% 15.7% 41.3% SS $3,100 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.321 0.319 0.150 31.3% 10.9% 25.8% 43.9% 3B $2,500 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.255 0.271 0.096 22.0% 4.1% 20.7% 45.4% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Cleveland
whitesoxmlb Jose Quintana clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-200 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.288 31.5% 4.7% 22.1% 48.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.315 37.6% 8.1% 24.4% 44.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.300 31.6% 7.4% 22.1% 37.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.275 0.276 31.7% 4.2% 25.7% 49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.01 3.20 21.6% 6.0% 40.4% 32.7% 18.6%
2017 12 4.22 5.30 23.4% 9.2% 39.2% 28.2% 21.3%

Jose Quintana currently has a 5.3 ERA which would be his highest ever in the major leagues. He’s seen his BB rate elevated to 9.2% and K rate elevated just slightly at 23.4%. He hasn’t necessarily pitched terrible it is mainly his HR/FB rate of 12.3% that has been killing him. The Indians are a somewhat difficult matchup as they own a 17.8% K rate, .302 wOBA and 86 wRC+ against LH pitching. Quintana has mainly struggled with RH hitters as he has a .349 wOBA vs. RH compared to .288 vs. LH hitters. It is worth noting that nine of ten home runs this season have been RH hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana is a mediocre option in this matchup. The Indians don’t really strikeout enough to justify the risk here and there’s plenty of RH power that could take advantage of Quintana’s struggles.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 11 3.63 3.36 25.3% 6.7% 44.9% 29.6% 16.2%

Carlos Carrasco draws one of the better matchups on the slate. The White Sox are fifth in K rate against RH pitching at 23.8%. They also own a .295 wOBA and 81 wRC+. Those numbers rank 27th and 28th respectively. Carrasco has a 3.36 ERA, 25.3% K rate and 6.7% BB rate on the season. Carrasco has already faced this same White Sox team twice this season posting FanDuel scores of 43 and 58 while striking out 15 batters and allowing one run in 15 innings of work.

Quick Breakdown: If paying up at pitcher, Carrasco is the best cash game option. His elevated BB rate is a little bit concerning but he’s already faced this same White Sox team twice and handled them easily.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Carrasco owns a .313 wOBA vs LH hitters and .233 wOBA against RH hitters. Six of his eight home runs have been LH batters. If you wanted to take a couple of low-owned White Sox against Carrasco Leury Garcia and Melky Cabrera could make sense. They both hit RH pitching well. I personally won’t be going that direction though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.355 0.315 0.215 29.4% 4.9% 19.0% 52.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.326 0.326 0.138 28.9% 7.7% 10.2% 45.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.335 0.342 0.161 32.4% 5.8% 17.5% 45.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.322 0.328 0.169 31.5% 5.9% 25.0% 53.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.320 0.320 0.227 31.5% 9.8% 23.2% 38.9% 3B $3,300 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
6 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.286 0.304 0.026 15.8% 11.4% 12.6% 40.2% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.299 0.276 0.156 30.6% 3.0% 26.2% 51.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
8 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.308 0.294 0.247 40.4% 4.0% 47.5% 31.9% 1B $2,400 1B/3B $3,100 3B $6,000
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.234 0.193 0.000 60.0% 0.0% 33.3% 60.0% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 CF $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland

The way to attack Quintana is with RH hitters. He has a .349 wOBA vs. RH compared to .288 vs. LH hitters with nine of ten home runs this season by RH hitters. Daniel Robertson, Edwin Encarnacion and Francisco Lindor all hit LH pitching pretty well. The Indians have one of the higher implied team totals on the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.319 0.305 0.178 28.3% 6.1% 24.3% 41.7% 2B $3,200 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.391 0.288 0.152 21.9% 5.7% 2.9% 51.6% OF $3,000 2B/3B $2,700 LF $4,800
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.343 0.335 0.165 33.3% 7.1% 14.1% 46.1% SS $3,700 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.301 0.326 0.117 30.2% 11.0% 8.9% 53.9% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.371 0.376 0.211 40.3% 17.8% 22.2% 40.3% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.342 0.344 0.155 31.6% 7.1% 13.9% 42.8% 3B $3,500 2B/3B $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.292 0.319 0.122 40.6% 9.8% 20.7% 42.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.175 0.233 0.000 37.5% 7.1% 35.7% 57.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.275 0.264 0.141 23.6% 8.9% 21.5% 56.4% C $2,900 C $2,400 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Daniel Robertson and Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Oakland at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Oakland Tampa Bay
oaklandmlb Jesse Hahn tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -181 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.372 0.387 34.9% 10.0% 13.4% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.299 36.0% 8.4% 28.1% 45.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.284 25.1% 7.5% 16.2% 56.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.298 33.3% 7.3% 28.2% 46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jesse Hahn
jesse-hahn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 5.37 6.02 11.3% 9.4% 49.4% 31.7% 20.5%
2017 9 4.44 3.40 18.0% 8.0% 48.2% 27.6% 21.3%

Jesse Hahn owns a 3.4 ERA, 18% K rate and 8% BB rate this season. Those numbers are all in line with his career averages. You simply aren’t going to get a lot of strikeouts when you own a 7% SwStr rate. That’s ok though, as Hahn makes his living off ground balls. He’s at 48.2% on the season. He does draw a great mathcup though against a Rays team that owns a 25.5% K rate, .338 wOBa and 115 wRC+ against RH pitching. The main concern with the Rays though is their .210 ISO being the highest against RH pitching. If you want to target Jesse Hahn the way to do it is with LH hitting. He owns a .313 wOBA against LH hitting compared to .260 against RH hitting. He’s only given up one home run in 55 innings of work at that was a LH hitter. He’s able to keep the ball down against RH hitters with a 55.3% ground ball rate as opposed to 39.5% to LH hitters

Quick Breakdown: The matchup here makes Hahn slightly intriguing. Especially as an SP2 on DraftKings where he’s only $5,800. I would avoid Hahn on single-pitcher sites and load up where he’s cheap as an SP2.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $12,200 Salary: $23,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 47.8% 32.8% 18.0%
2017 13 3.28 3.65 30.0% 7.7% 42.3% 39.2% 15.7%

Chris Archer is the most expensive pitcher on the early slate. He has an excellent 30% K rate through 13 starts this season. That’s up just slightly from 27.4% last year but isn’t out of the ordinary for Archer. The increased K rate is backed by a slight increase of Swing Strikes (SwStr) at 13.2% this season. Archer walks more batters than we would like to see at 7.7% but draws an excellent matchup against Oakland. The Athletics own a 24.8% K rate against RH pitching this season which ranks third. They do have some power though with a wOBA of .338 and wRC+ of 115. If you want to attack Archer, the way to do it this season has been with LH hitters. He owns a .323 wOBA vs. LH compared to .254 to RH batters. We’ve also seen LH batters hit Archer hard this year with a 45.9% hard contact rate.

Quick Breakdown: Given that Archer is more expensive than Carrasco and has a slightly worse matchup I prefer Carrasco. That said, Archer is still safe enough for cash games. His 30% K rate can forgive a lot of mistakes and the Athletics certainly strikeout plenty.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

As I mentioned above, you want to attack Archer with LH hitters. He owns a .323 wOBA vs. LH compared to .254 to RH batters. We’ve also seen LH batters hit Archer hard this year with a 45.9% hard contact rate. The Athletics don’t really have a lot of LH power though. The best you can do here is probably Matt Joyce who owns a .348 wOBA and averages 36.8% hard contact against RH pitching. He’s best suited as a tournament long shot though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.293 0.264 0.135 26.0% 6.1% 19.7% 47.6% OF $3,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.348 0.370 0.216 36.8% 18.1% 22.7% 41.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.324 0.324 0.131 32.3% 8.2% 16.6% 37.2% 2B $2,300 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.349 0.369 0.290 40.6% 7.1% 28.7% 42.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.337 0.371 0.173 35.7% 9.9% 16.0% 39.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.336 0.332 0.206 33.1% 4.3% 24.5% 40.2% 1B $3,300 1B/3B $3,900 3B $7,600
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.310 0.318 0.159 27.1% 7.1% 15.7% 30.6% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.333 0.373 0.289 35.2% 7.1% 27.1% 38.9% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $2,400 2B $4,800
9 Jaycob Brugman LEFT OF $2,200 OF $2,200 CF $4,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay

If you want to target Jesse Hahn the way to do it is with LH hitting. He owns a .313 wOBA against LH hitting compared to .260 against RH hitting. He’s only given up one home run in 55 innings of work at that was a LH hitter. He’s able to keep the ball down against RH hitters with a 55.3% ground ball rate as opposed to 39.5% to LH hitters. The ideal options here are Rays LH power bats here. That mainly includes Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison but you can certainly get away with Mallex Smith as a punt play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.347 0.268 0.143 19.5% 9.8% 19.7% 60.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.356 0.322 0.274 33.0% 6.1% 21.9% 34.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 LF $9,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.352 0.352 0.238 36.2% 6.3% 19.8% 35.1% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.336 0.364 0.231 38.8% 11.0% 22.7% 40.5% 1B $3,300 1B $4,800 1B $9,200
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.340 0.317 0.196 31.3% 9.8% 31.4% 41.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.313 0.310 0.196 37.1% 9.8% 30.1% 37.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.312 0.299 0.198 44.6% 4.3% 32.0% 42.8% SS $3,400 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.285 0.271 0.108 30.8% 10.6% 27.1% 46.0% OF $3,000 2B/3B $2,700 LF $4,800
9 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.305 0.294 0.134 21.8% 2.7% 19.2% 42.6% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,200

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Mets at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

NY Mets Atlanta
nymetsmlb Seth Lugo atlantamlb Jaime Garcia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.374 39.5% 12.6% 15.1% 45.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.290 0.282 23.8% 5.5% 21.8% 48.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.328 37.5% 4.3% 19.2% 40.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.312 30.9% 8.8% 18.1% 58.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Seth Lugo
seth-lugo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 4.66 2.67 17.3% 8.1% 42.8% 38.4% 16.8%

Seth Lugo started eight games for the Mets in 2016. He posted a 4.51 ERA, 17.3% K rate and 8.1% BB rate. He generated a decent amount of ground balls at 42.8%. He had a matching .285 wOBA against both LH and RH batters. He did get hit really hard at 39.5% to RH compared to 37.5% to LH hitters. He’ll take on a Braves offense that owns a 19.3% K rate, .316 wOBA and 93 wRC+ against RH pitching. The main issue with Lugo is that he’s coming of the 60-day DL. He had an elbow injury that required a PRP injection. I wouldn’t expect Lugo to pitch deep into this game in his first start.

Quick Breakdown: The Braves don’t really strikeout enough at 19.3% to justify taking a chance on Seth Lugo who could be limited. For close to the same price, you could have Jesse Hahn in a better matchup.

Jaime Garcia
jaime-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 4.67 20.2% 7.7% 56.7% 31.1% 18.6%
2017 11 4.73 3.21 15.2% 9.3% 57.2% 25.7% 23.9%

Jaime Garcia owns a 3.21 ERA through 11 starts this season. He’s a ground-ball pitcher with a 57.2% rate which has pretty much always been the case. The main issue with Garcia is that he really doesn’t get the strikeouts we want. He has a K rate of 15.2% this season and a BB rate of 9.3%. The Mets own a 20.6% K rate, .305 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against LH pitching. They tend to roll out a LH heavy lineup which is what Garcia is best against. He owns a .263 wOBA vs. LH compared to .299 vs. RH hitters.

Quick Breakdown: The main issue with Garcia is that he’s priced towards the top of the mid tier when all he really offers is a small amount of safety because of a high ground ball rate. He’ll take on a Mets team that should have Yoenis Cespedes again today. They have a couple of RH hitters that hit LH pitching well in Cespedes (.464 wOBA), Wilmer Flores (.490 wOBA) and Michael Conforto (.253 wOBA).

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.303 0.336 0.110 24.0% 6.0% 17.0% 41.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
2 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.253 0.259 0.137 32.7% 9.5% 29.8% 38.8% OF $4,000 OF $5,000 LF $9,900
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.462 0.469 0.350 49.4% 17.2% 18.0% 35.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.450 0.388 0.346 30.7% 5.9% 9.6% 27.2% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.341 0.323 0.130 38.0% 6.9% 16.9% 47.9% SS $2,900 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
6 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.185 0.213 0.018 29.7% 3.5% 31.6% 37.8% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,000 3B $6,000
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.414 0.367 0.293 34.7% 12.8% 10.6% 35.7% 3B $2,600 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,300
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.349 0.315 0.154 42.4% 11.9% 32.2% 36.4% C $3,000 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Seth Lugo RIGHT 0.000 0.060 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% P $6,800 P $5,100 P $10,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores and Michael Conforto

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Atlanta

It’s tough to say what we can expect out of Seth Lugo coming off the DL. He was great last season with a 42.8% ground ball rate. He had a matching .285 wOBA against both LH and RH batters. The Brave that hits RH pitching best is Tyler Flowers but he isn’t a lock to catch today. You could take a shot on options like Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis who always seem to be on base but neither offers much power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.319 0.297 0.107 26.6% 8.5% 13.4% 42.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
2 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.272 0.298 0.098 31.3% 9.9% 24.8% 49.0% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
3 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.337 0.352 0.216 36.7% 4.9% 23.6% 40.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
4 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.290 0.315 0.132 29.7% 3.1% 16.0% 52.1% 3B $2,800 3B $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.341 0.339 0.228 37.7% 7.7% 25.9% 33.3% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.367 0.349 0.142 41.9% 8.2% 25.3% 42.4% C $2,900 C $3,900 C $7,800
7 Danny Santana SWITCH 0.288 0.279 0.119 34.6% 4.4% 22.2% 52.1% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
8 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.262 0.315 0.100 31.8% 9.0% 23.9% 63.6% 3B $2,600 3B $2,800 3B $5,400
9 Jaime Garcia LEFT 0.172 0.181 0.020 17.5% 3.3% 31.1% 70.0% P $8,200 P $7,600 P $15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.