MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 6th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET
| Philadelphia | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Clay Buchholz |  | Rookie Davis | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN -107 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.342 | 35.8% | 11.6% | 15.0% | SP vs. Left (2016) | ||||
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.300 | 26.8% | 7.1% | 16.7% | SP vs. Right (2016) | ||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Clay Buchholz | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $12,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 19 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 26 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | 5.09 | 4.78 | 15.8% | 9.4% | 41.2% | 43.0% | 31.3% | |
Buchholz is hoping a new team and a move to the National League can help resurrect his career. He hasn’t been the same pitcher in the last few seasons and certainly not a guy that we like to target in DFS. His strikeout rate was well below the league average last season and he walked too many batters. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that has struggled with lefties, which doesn’t bode well for today’s start in Cincinnati.
| Rookie Davis | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $9,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 26 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 26 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Davis is making his major league debut. It’s always tough to predict how pitchers will fare in their debuts, but I generally like to take and wait and see approach when there are a lot of unknowns. Davis had a strikeout rate below 17% in each of the last two seasons in the minors, so we shouldn’t expect him to be a high strikeout pitcher at the major league level.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Even though the Phillies have a lackluster offense, they are facing a rookie pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Michael Saunders, and Tommy Joseph all had a .230+ wOBA against right-handed pitching last season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.332 | 0.112 | 27.1% | 11.5% | 18.3% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 2 | Howie Kendrick | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.135 | 35.0% | 7.9% | 16.9% | OF | $2,600 | 2B/OF | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.359 | 0.164 | 30.0% | 9.3% | 19.4% | OF | $3,400 | 2B/OF | $4,300 | $8,400 |
| 4 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.154 | 29.3% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,500 | $8,800 |
| 5 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.205 | 38.6% | 11.3% | 27.8% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,900 | $7,800 |
| 6 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.235 | 37.7% | 4.9% | 22.7% | 1B | $2,000 | 1B | $4,100 | $8,100 |
| 7 | Cameron Rupp | RIGHT | 0.302 | 0.171 | 33.2% | 5.8% | 26.8% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,400 | $6,600 |
| 8 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.175 | 27.1% | 4.8% | 22.9% | SS | $2,800 | 3B/SS | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 9 | Clay Buchholz | RIGHT | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 66.7% | P | $6,400 | P | $6,500 | $12,900 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Michael Saunders, Tommy Joseph
Stackability – YELLOW
Cincinnati
Clay Buchholz is not a pitcher that we need to shy away from. He has a low strikeout and allowed a 35.8% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters last season. Joey Votto mashes right-handed pitching (especially at home), while Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Adam Duvall, and Scott Schebler are also worth a look.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.308 | 0.081 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 19.9% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,200 | $8,000 |
| 2 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.074 | 20.1% | 2.0% | 13.6% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/SS | $3,800 | $7,600 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.429 | 0.254 | 41.9% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $5,000 | $9,600 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.260 | 38.1% | 5.9% | 26.6% | OF | $3,300 | 1B/OF | $4,300 | $8,400 |
| 5 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.137 | 34.2% | 7.5% | 24.4% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.171 | 34.2% | 6.8% | 21.9% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 7 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.156 | 30.2% | 7.2% | 16.1% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,500 | $6,800 |
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.318 | 0.129 | 30.4% | 9.6% | 14.5% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,800 | $5,600 |
| 9 | Rookie Davis | RIGHT | P | $5,000 | P | $4,800 | $9,600 |
Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto
Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler
Stackability – YELLOW
Kansas City at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Jason Hammel |  | Kyle Gibson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIN-118 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.344 | 32.8% | 11.3% | 20.3% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.380 | 31.5% | 9.0% | 14.5% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.292 | 32.3% | 4.9% | 21.2% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.327 | 30.6% | 7.9% | 17.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jason Hammel | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $15,300 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 26 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30 | 4.28 | 3.83 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 42.1% | 38.1% | 32.5% | |
Hammel will be making his first start with the Royals. On a positive note, half of his starts will come in the pitcher-friendly Kaufmann Stadium. Unfortunately, a move to the American League usually isn’t too kind on pitchers. He is an intriguing tournament play right out of the gate, as the Twins have five hitters in their lineup with a strikeout rate of at least 25% against right-handed pitching.
| Kyle Gibson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $11,700 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 22 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 26 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | 4.73 | 5.07 | 15.9% | 8.4% | 48.8% | 28.5% | 31.0% | |
If you look at the pitching table above, you will see a lot of red boxes. That usually isn’t a good sign for his potential fantasy production. Even though the Royals’ offense lacks pop, there isn’t enough upside for Gibson to warrant consideration. In 2016, Gibson had a 4.73 SIERA with an un-inspiring strikeout rate of 15.9%.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals are small underdogs today, but their offense is actually in a better spot than the Twins. The only drawback against Kyle Gibson is that he is a ground-ball pitcher. He really had his struggles with lefties last season, allowing a .380 wOBA and a 31.5% hard contact rate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.306 | 0.167 | 36.9% | 10.4% | 28.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 2 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.265 | 34.7% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,200 | $6,300 |
| 3 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.091 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 21.6% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 | $7,800 |
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.176 | 36.6% | 9.8% | 19.4% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,000 | $7,600 |
| 5 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.176 | 35.6% | 3.4% | 22.0% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,400 | $6,600 |
| 6 | Brandon Moss | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.302 | 41.9% | 9.9% | 30.0% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B/OF | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 7 | Paulo Orlando | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.069 | 31.2% | 2.4% | 21.9% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,200 | $6,300 |
| 8 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.087 | 20.9% | 3.7% | 14.1% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,300 | $6,400 |
| 9 | Raul Mondesi | SWITCH | 0.235 | 0.117 | 34.4% | 1.0% | 33.0% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/SS | $2,400 | $4,800 |
Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas
Secondary Plays – Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Brandon Moss
Stackability – YELLOW
Minnesota
Like most right-handed pitchers, Jason Hammel gives up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters. In 2016, he allowed a .344 to lefties, while walking them at a rate of 11.3%. The Twins’ lefties are sneaky in this spot, as they aren’t really household names. Brian Dozier is also worth a look batting leadoff.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.262 | 33.3% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,500 | $8,700 |
| 2 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.219 | 33.3% | 10.2% | 18.8% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,800 | $7,500 |
| 3 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.201 | 24.6% | 5.4% | 36.8% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,500 | $6,900 |
| 4 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.138 | 30.9% | 15.1% | 15.4% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 5 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.218 | 39.9% | 10.0% | 36.5% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B/OF | $4,100 | $8,000 |
| 6 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.194 | 37.8% | 12.9% | 33.0% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,900 | $5,700 |
| 7 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.284 | 0.104 | 25.8% | 5.8% | 17.4% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $2,800 | $5,600 |
| 8 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.189 | 35.2% | 3.3% | 25.5% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,500 | $6,900 |
| 9 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.329 | 0.121 | 30.0% | 16.5% | 27.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,600 | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – Max Kepler
Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Jason Castro
Stackability – YELLOW
Colorado at Milwaukee – 1:40 PM ET
| Colorado | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Antonio Senzatela |  | Chase Anderson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIL-119 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.289 | 32.3% | 8.9% | 18.9% | ||||
| SP vs. Right (2016) | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.394 | 39.8% | 7.6% | 18.3% | ||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Antonio Senzatela | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $5,100 | Salary: | $10,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 26 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senzatela is the second pitcher that is making his major league debut today. In these situations, I like to lean on Vegas and the Rockies are listed as small underdogs in a game that features a run total of nine runs. Senzatela didn’t show a lot of upside in the minors and isn’t a big time prospect. He should be avoided in all formats today against the Brewers.
| Chase Anderson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 20 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 26 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30 | 4.68 | 4.39 | 18.6% | 8.2% | 36.1% | 41.1% | 36.6% | |
Anderson has all of the things that we are looking for, just from a hitter’s perspective. He has a below-average strikeout rate, he walks a decent number of hitters, and he gives up a lot of fly balls and hard contact. The Rockies are a much better offense at home than they are on the road, but we shouldn’t be looking at the pitchers in this one. Both of these offenses are in great spots.
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
My Rockies’ stack didn’t live up to expectations last night, but that is going to happen in baseball. I will be getting right back up on the horse today. Chase Anderson is a fly-ball pitcher that allowed a 35% hard contact rate last season. While I like the left-handed hitters in this lineup, Anderson is a reverse-splits guy, so give an edge to those that can hit from the right side.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Blackmon | LEFT | 0.405 | 0.275 | 38.7% | 7.2% | 16.8% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,100 | $9,900 |
| 2 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.390 | 0.132 | 34.7% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/3B | $4,400 | $8,700 |
| 3 | Carlos Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.201 | 35.8% | 9.3% | 18.0% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,900 | $9,600 |
| 4 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.289 | 37.7% | 8.1% | 13.8% | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $5,100 | $10,000 |
| 5 | Trevor Story | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.290 | 39.7% | 6.7% | 30.3% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,700 | $9,300 |
| 6 | Gerardo Parra | LEFT | 0.289 | 0.162 | 35.6% | 2.5% | 19.2% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 | $7,600 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.201 | 28.6% | 8.9% | 25.6% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B/3B | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 8 | Tony Wolters | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.152 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 23.0% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,000 | $6,000 |
| 9 | Antonio Senzatela | RIGHT | P | $5,600 | P | $5,100 | $10,000 |
Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds
Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra
Stackability – GREEN
Milwaukee
We never quite know what to expect when a pitcher is making his major league debut, but Antonio Senzatela had a low strikeout rate in the minors and the Brewers come into the game with one of the highest implied run totals in the slate. If the Brewers can figure Senzatela early, they could be in for a big offensive outing.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.341 | 0.146 | 34.8% | 11.9% | 25.2% | 2B | $3,400 | 3B/SS | $4,600 | $8,800 |
| 2 | Eric Thames | LEFT | 1B | $2,300 | 1B/OF | $3,900 | $7,800 | |||||
| 3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.226 | 32.8% | 7.3% | 18.4% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,000 | $9,900 |
| 4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.180 | 35.8% | 9.2% | 24.6% | 3B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.178 | 36.9% | 10.4% | 34.9% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,900 | $7,600 |
| 6 | Keon Broxton | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.169 | 41.9% | 13.2% | 35.4% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,000 | $7,600 |
| 7 | Jett Bandy | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.133 | 26.2% | 3.0% | 15.2% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,800 | $5,600 |
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.243 | 0.129 | 22.9% | 4.3% | 22.8% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,500 | $6,900 |
| 9 | Chase Anderson | RIGHT | 0.088 | 0.000 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | P | $6,300 | P | $6,100 | $12,000 |
Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw
Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana
Stackability – GREEN
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 2:10 PM ET
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | John Lackey |  | Lance Lynn | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC-106 | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.303 | 34.1% | 9.3% | 20.8% | SP vs. Left (2016) | ||||
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.264 | 34.6% | 5.4% | 26.5% | SP vs. Right (2016) | ||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| John Lackey | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $9,200 | Salary: | $17,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 26 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 29 | 3.83 | 3.35 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 41.0% | 36.3% | 34.4% | |
As I mentioned yesterday, Lackey surpassed expectations last season with a 3.83 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 24.1%. I expect him to regress a little this season, but there is no reason why he can’t have another good year with the Cubs. The main reason to avoid him today is a matchup against the Cardinals on the road. St. Louis was one of the best offenses at home last season and they are a difficult teams to strikeout.
| Lance Lynn | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $12,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 14 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 26 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 26 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lynn is making his first start in over a year. At his best, he had a strikeout rate over 20% and decent upside in DFS. However, he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery and is facing the World Series Champions. In large slates like this one, it doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see on players that we aren’t sure of. In this matchup, Lynn is an easy fade.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs drive pitch counts up and make opposing pitchers work with every at bat. It could be a struggle for Lance Lynn, who hasn’t made a start in over a season. Lynn has been tough on righties in his career, but has allowed a .350 wOBA to lefties.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.398 | 0.143 | 75.0% | 11.1% | 33.3% | OF | $3,400 | C/OF | $4,400 | $8,400 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.237 | 40.1% | 9.9% | 23.4% | 3B | $4,200 | 3B/OF | $5,000 | $9,900 |
| 3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.402 | 0.270 | 38.3% | 11.6% | 17.3% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $5,100 | $10,000 |
| 4 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.154 | 28.6% | 8.0% | 22.5% | SS | $2,700 | 2B/SS | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 5 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.225 | 34.9% | 10.6% | 26.0% | C | $3,000 | C/OF | $3,600 | $7,200 |
| 6 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.287 | 0.099 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 14.7% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,300 | $6,600 |
| 7 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.142 | 28.8% | 1.3% | 26.1% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $3,700 | $7,200 |
| 8 | John Lackey | RIGHT | 0.141 | 0.045 | 29.2% | 4.1% | 46.9% | P | $8,700 | P | $9,200 | $17,600 |
| 9 | Albert Almora | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.114 | 30.9% | 5.4% | 20.3% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,200 | $6,400 |
Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony RIzzo
Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Willson Contreras
Stackability – YELLOW
St. Louis
John Lackey strikes a lot of hitters out, he doesn’t walk many, and he is coming off of an excellent season. While I won’t have a ton of exposure to the Cardinals’ offense, Lackey did allow a 34% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters last year. Matt Carpenter stands out as an excellent play here, as he had a massive 47% hard contact rate against righties last season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | FD Pos. | FD Salary | DK Pos. | DK Salary | FDFT Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.363 | 0.165 | 28.7% | 14.9% | 24.9% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,400 | $8,700 |
| 2 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.390 | 0.235 | 32.8% | 8.7% | 13.0% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $4,100 | $8,100 |
| 3 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.385 | 0.261 | 47.1% | 15.0% | 18.8% | 2B | $2,900 | 1B/3B | $4,400 | $8,700 |
| 4 | Jhonny Peralta | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.155 | 34.1% | 6.9% | 16.9% | SS | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $3,300 | $6,600 |
| 5 | Yadier Molina | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.121 | 31.6% | 6.5% | 10.2% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,500 | $6,900 |
| 6 | Stephen Piscotty | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.160 | 33.6% | 6.5% | 22.3% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,100 | $8,000 |
| 7 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.245 | 41.6% | 4.6% | 30.7% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,800 | $7,600 |
| 8 | Kolten Wong | LEFT | 0.299 | 0.120 | 24.9% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B | $3,100 | $6,000 |
| 9 | Lance Lynn | RIGHT | P | $7,000 | P | $6,400 | $12,600 |