MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-13 21:34:39

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Oakland								Houston
			Trevor Cahill							Charlie Morton
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-210							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.249	0.273	40.0%	87.1	27.3%	59.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.304	41.2%	89.6	39.5%	44.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.353	48.1%	90.4	23.4%	60.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.264	0.271	27.8%	85.9	23.7%	53.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Trevor Cahill
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			15 of 20	Salary Rank:			18 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	14	4.43	4.93	22.8%	11.8%	55.6%	28.9%	22.4%	90.9	11.0%
	2018	8	3.09	2.77	25.0%	5.9%	60.2%	44.9%	10.2%	91.4	13.1%

There are three games that aren’t featured in the main slate, but only two of them are in the early-only slate. The Phillies/Orioles game is only included in the showdown and all-day slates. Cahill is always one of my favorite pitchers to see on the schedule when healthy. He induces plenty of ground ball rates and has an above-average strikeout rate. He’s never priced up across the industry, which typically puts him on my radar as an SP2. However, there are two issues today — first, this is his first start back from an Achilles injury that forced him to miss more than a month. And second, he’s pitching on the road against a talented Astros’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cahill in all formats, but be ready to play him in his next start if he looks sharp.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,800	Salary:			$11,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 20	Salary Rank:			3 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	3.70	3.62	26.4%	8.1%	51.8%	26.9%	22.1%	95.0	10.9%
	2018	18	3.22	2.83	31.5%	9.6%	49.8%	33.2%	21.3%	95.9	13.1%
	L14	3	2.24	3.26	40.5%	7.6%	40.0%	30.0%	25.0%	95.7	16.6%

Morton is one of a handful of Astros’ starters that are having one of the best seasons of their respective careers. There must be something in the water down in Houston. In his 18 starts, Morton has a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a ground ball rate of 50%. That combination makes it incredibly tough on opponents, as it gives him two ways to get out of trouble (the strikeout or the ground ball). The A’s are a boom or bust offense and we’ve seen that over the last two games — they didn’t show up against Verlander, but they knocked around Lance McCullers. While Oakland is capable of negating Morton’s high ground ball rate, his strikeout upside is still massive. With the other game in the early slate being played in Coors Field, Morton is easily the top target on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Morton is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The argument for the A’s is that they are going to be low owned in tournaments. Regardless of which teams are playing, it’s tough to find a low owned offense in a two-game slate. With that said, they have the worst matchup on the board and it’s not particularly close. Charlie Morton has an elite strikeout rate (32%) and an above-average ground-ball rate (50%). On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. He has allowed a lot of hard contact to lefties, but that worry is squashed by a 40% strikeout rate against batters from that side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dustin Fowler	LEFT	0.345	89.7	0.164	45.0%	4.7%	21.5%	41.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.302	85.5	0.079	27.3%	6.9%	17.4%	45.2%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.340	88.7	0.253	36.3%	10.6%	21.1%	36.0%	2B	$3,400	2B/3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.430	94.0	0.286	50.3%	7.4%	24.0%	35.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.417	94.7	0.260	54.4%	11.0%	25.6%	31.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.368	88.2	0.196	45.0%	6.0%	19.3%	43.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.384	93.2	0.206	45.1%	11.6%	22.3%	39.9%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.348	86.2	0.109	41.0%	10.3%	23.7%	45.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.321	87.8	0.083	40.6%	5.5%	14.8%	45.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.362	89.8	0.182	42.8%	8.2%	21.1%	40.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Olson (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Houston

In each of the last two seasons, Trevor Cahill has shown a reverse split. In his eight starts this season, he has held left-handed hitters to a .273 xwOBA on a 60% ground ball rate. While he still has a high ground ball rate against right-handed hitters, he has given up a .353 xwOBA and a 48% hard contact rate. The Astros are still the third most appealing offense in the early-only slate (behind the Diamondbacks and Rockies), but they have plenty of right-handed power to throw at Cahill, who is making his first start in over a month. Looking strictly at fly-ball rates, Alex Bregman and Evan Gattis are the top targets against this ground ball pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.353	88.7	0.149	34.0%	10.1%	17.4%	48.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.413	89.5	0.216	40.8%	12.8%	14.2%	36.3%	3B	$4,700	3B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.371	86.5	0.165	35.6%	9.6%	13.0%	47.3%	2B	$4,600	2B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.300	90.0	0.146	32.0%	3.3%	9.9%	50.3%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.342	86.0	0.120	31.9%	12.5%	14.1%	38.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.343	88.7	0.245	42.0%	8.6%	25.9%	31.1%	C	$2,800	C	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Kyle Tucker	LEFT	0.311	96.4	0.000	25.0%	12.5%	37.5%	75.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Max Stassi	RIGHT	0.303	87.2	0.209	27.3%	11.1%	31.3%	49.1%	C	$2,400	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.316	84.0	0.154	33.3%	11.7%	25.8%	40.8%	SS	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.339	88.6	0.156	33.5%	10.2%	21.0%	46.3%

Elite Plays – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis (DK)

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick, Kyle Tucker (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Arizona								Colorado
			Robbie Ray							Kyle Freeland
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-101							11.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.304	36.8%	86.6	37.8%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.280	28.8%	85.8	28.0%	43.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.365	0.344	50.0%	91.2	33.6%	30.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.320	28.9%	85.2	16.4%	49.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Robbie Ray
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			14 of 20	Salary Rank:			16 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	3.53	2.89	32.8%	10.7%	40.3%	40.4%	16.4%	94.3	14.2%
	2018	9	3.45	5.23	34.4%	12.7%	33.0%	47.5%	12.1%	93.0	13.4%
	L14	3	3.59	5.87	30.8%	10.8%	34.2%	47.4%	10.5%	93.0	13.6%

Ray probably wasn’t expected to make an appearance in last night’s game, but he ended up taking an at-bat after Shelby Miller left the game early. That game was incredibly strange, as we saw Daniel Descalso pitching in the fourth inning. The Diamondbacks are hoping their ace can last a bit longer than Miller, as they have a very tired bullpen. Ray may have a high ERA this season, but he owns a 3.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34%. We often talk about how good of a hitter’s park Coors Field is, but we rarely mention how the altitude affects pitches. Pitchers aren’t able to get as much movement on their offspeed pitches, which really hurts a pitcher like Ray, who throws a slider or curve on nearly half of his pitches.

Quick Breakdown: Ray still has strikeout upside here, but the risk outweighs the reward.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kyle Freeland
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			13 of 20	Salary Rank:			14 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.93	4.10	15.6%	9.2%	53.9%	32.0%	24.3%	92.0	7.5%
	2018	18	4.36	3.18	19.4%	8.2%	48.4%	28.8%	22.1%	91.1	8.7%
	L14	3	4.89	1.42	14.5%	7.9%	49.1%	19.0%	20.7%	90.6	8.3%

Freeland isn’t as talented as his 3.18 ERA might suggest, but he’s still a competent pitcher. He has an above-average ground ball rate and an ability to induce soft and medium contact. Unlike his teammates, he actually has better splits in Coors than he does on the road (averaging nearly five more fantasy points per start). The clear SP1 in this early slate is Charlie Morton, but Freeland is my lean for an SP2. He’s cheap across the industry and today’s projected lineup for the Diamondbacks has a 22% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland is far from a lock, but he’s the top SP2 in these two early games.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The smaller the slate, the more likely I am to target a hitter against one of my starting pitchers. It’s a strategy that very few employ, even though we shouldn’t be expecting our pitchers in these small slates to be perfect. Right off the bat, we can rule out the lefties in this Diamondbacks’ lineup. Kyle Freeland has held left-handed hitters to a .280 xwOBA with a 28% strikeout rate. The right-handed bats of Nick Ahmed (.325 xwOBA), Paul Goldschmidt (.467 xwOBA), A.J. Pollock (.378 xwOBA), Steven Souza (.339 xwOBA), and Ketel Marte (.360 xwOBA) are all viable, as they all hit southpaws well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	David Peralta	LEFT	0.309	88.9	0.128	36.4%	5.8%	26.9%	60.6%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
2	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.325	87.9	0.210	43.9%	5.7%	17.0%	40.2%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.467	91.2	0.347	52.2%	15.8%	22.8%	30.4%	1B	$4,800	1B	$5,900	N/A	N/A
4	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.378	92.0	0.389	48.8%	6.7%	23.3%	41.5%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.339	89.9	0.000	66.7%	10.5%	26.3%	66.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.360	92.0	0.274	46.6%	8.1%	8.1%	58.3%	2B	$3,600	2B/SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.333	85.8	0.081	34.6%	13.6%	27.3%	53.8%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	John Ryan Murphy	RIGHT	0.395	87.1	0.270	53.1%	7.4%	20.6%	32.7%	C	$3,200	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.077	72.7	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	28.6%	80.0%	P	$7,500	P	$5,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.331	87.5	0.189	42.5%	8.2%	22.3%	51.6%

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock

Secondary Plays – Nick Ahmed, Steven Souza, Ketel Marte

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies are coming off of a 19-run outing last night against the Diamondbacks. While I’m generally hesitant to go back to an offense that scored so many runs the night before, the Rockies have owned Robbie Ray in the past. Their projected lineup has a .470 wOBA with 11 home runs in 151 plate appearances. The splits advantage clearly goes to the right-handed hitters in the Rockies’ lineup, as Ray has allowed a .344 xwOBA and a 50% hard contact rate to righties this season. Charlie Blackmon is also viable thanks to the four home runs that he has against Ray in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.399	90.3	0.191	40.7%	8.6%	9.5%	39.5%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.336	85.7	0.119	30.8%	6.8%	18.9%	46.2%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.440	92.1	0.407	48.4%	14.9%	15.7%	34.4%	3B	$5,000	3B	$5,900	N/A	N/A
4	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.368	91.9	0.315	47.6%	8.8%	24.0%	26.8%	SS	$4,600	SS	$5,700	N/A	N/A
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.346	89.8	0.280	41.5%	8.3%	21.7%	59.8%	1B	$3,800	1B/OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.363	95.4	0.103	41.7%	11.0%	20.9%	46.7%	C	$3,100	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.258	84.4	0.055	21.7%	2.6%	19.5%	61.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Noel Cuevas	RIGHT	0.286	84.4	0.096	28.6%	2.6%	13.2%	37.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Freeland	LEFT	0.084	63.2	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	47.1%	66.7%	P	$7,700	P	$6,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.320	86.4	0.174	34.7%	7.1%	21.2%	46.5%

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at Baltimore – 6:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Baltimore
			Nick Pivetta							Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-104							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.364	0.356	34.5%	88.9	23.9%	41.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	0.326	26.6%	87.7	21.9%	44.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.280	31.3%	87.3	30.4%	46.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.352	35.4%	89.7	20.0%	48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			17 of 20	Salary Rank:			8 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	26	4.32	6.02	24.0%	9.8%	43.8%	35.5%	15.9%	94.4	8.7%
	2018	18	3.46	4.62	27.4%	7.5%	44.4%	32.8%	15.0%	94.7	11.8%
	L14	2	5.63	13.50	14.7%	14.7%	56.5%	47.8%	21.7%	95.2	10.6%

The addition of the showdown slates this season leaves no game behind. If you want exposure to this game, you can do it through the all-day or showdown slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. I may join some of the singe-game contests just to get exposure to these two pitchers. Pivetta has struggled in his last three outings, but two were against the left-handed heavy Nationals and the other was against the low-strikeout offense of the Pirates. A matchup against the Orioles is a perfect bounce-back opportunity. Pivetta has held right-handed hitters to a .280 xwOBA and a 28% strikeout rate this season and he’ll likely be facing seven of them today against Baltimore.

Quick Breakdown: For the showdown slate, my plan is to target both starters.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			18 of 20	Salary Rank:			10 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	34	4.41	4.68	21.9%	8.7%	42.7%	32.3%	18.2%	95.0	10.9%
	2018	18	3.90	4.11	20.8%	5.7%	46.6%	31.7%	18.1%	93.7	11.7%
	L14	3	4.38	2.84	15.1%	2.7%	43.3%	26.7%	18.3%	94.1	9.9%

Gausman has been hit or miss throughout his career. His velocity has been down a little this season, but it has picked up over his last few starts. He still has an above-average swinging strike rate, so perhaps he’ll be able to put everything together and come on strong in the second half of the season. He draws a favorable matchup today against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The fact that he’s pitching in Camden Yards gives Gausman a small bump, as he averages five more fantasy points per start at home this season.

Quick Breakdown: Again, I like both starters for the showdown slate.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and get to use the DH in this series. They draw a mediocre matchup against Kevin Gausman, who is a reverse-splits pitcher. On the season, he has allowed a .352 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. For the all-day slate, we can look elsewhere, but there are a few intriguing plays in the showdown slate. Rhys Hoskins bats from the right side and owns a .384 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Carlos Santana and Nick Williams also have good numbers against righties, but they bat from the left side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.330	83.5	0.138	25.8%	14.2%	22.0%	43.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.384	89.4	0.251	34.6%	12.1%	26.6%	24.8%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.316	87.3	0.193	27.0%	7.5%	21.0%	43.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.390	89.0	0.207	36.7%	20.7%	13.7%	34.7%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.382	89.3	0.247	33.9%	9.8%	25.7%	46.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.311	86.4	0.115	26.7%	5.3%	22.2%	39.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Andrew Knapp	SWITCH	0.319	89.0	0.177	39.0%	9.3%	35.5%	35.6%	C	$2,200	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.315	89.1	0.161	24.5%	5.2%	15.7%	56.3%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT								1B	$2,000	3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.343	87.9	0.186	31.0%	10.5%	22.8%	40.4%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles have been an easy target for right-handed pitchers this season, especially ones that have a high strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. I would much rather take a chance on Nick Pivetta in this spot, as he owns a 30% k-rate against righties. While the lefties have the splits advantage in this matchup, do we really want to target Chris Davis or Chance Sisco? Even in a single-game slate, that feels like a reach. Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo are the top targets here. Even though they bat from the right side, they both own a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.260	85.7	0.038	23.7%	4.5%	27.0%	49.3%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.339	88.6	0.186	32.0%	3.4%	18.0%	42.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.395	92.7	0.258	37.4%	11.4%	15.3%	38.3%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,800	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.377	93.3	0.238	42.6%	7.5%	24.4%	37.0%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.244	84.9	0.198	25.3%	2.4%	23.8%	48.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.295	87.1	0.101	35.0%	7.4%	35.0%	41.3%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.346	91.3	0.128	33.3%	6.7%	22.7%	45.2%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.369	90.8	0.152	32.9%	9.3%	24.5%	51.6%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.286	88.2	0.084	31.7%	7.2%	34.2%	47.4%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.323	89.2	0.154	32.7%	6.6%	25.0%	44.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Pittsburgh
			Wade Miley							Jameson Taillon
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-129							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.197	0.394	80.0%	89.1	0.0%	40.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.315	32.7%	85.7	17.5%	48.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.282	0.329	64.3%	93.5	20.0%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.270	31.1%	89.3	26.8%	51.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Wade Miley
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$4,700	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:			20 of 20	Salary Rank:			20 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20
	2017	32	5.07	5.61	19.5%	12.8%	50.3%	32.5%	16.6%	91.0	8.1%
	2018	2	5.76	1.42	14.8%	14.8%	47.4%	68.4%	10.5%	91.0	6.9%

Miley is back in our lives. He’s been one of my favorite pitchers to stack against over the years. He finished his 2017 season with a 13% walk rate and major troubles against both left and right-handed hitters. He’s missed nearly two months with an oblique injury, so we can expect him to be on some sort of pitch cap. He did make a rehab start in the minors, but he’s not a pitcher that I typically target even when healthy. Add in a matchup against the Pirates, who have one of the lowest strikeout rates against left-handed pitching and we have ourselves an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Miley in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:		$10,900
	Salary Rank:			16 of 20	Salary Rank:			17 of 20	Salary Rank:		12 of 20
	2017	25	4.24	4.44	21.3%	7.8%	47.3%	29.6%	22.1%	95.3	8.2%
	2018	18	3.80	4.05	22.2%	6.7%	50.0%	31.9%	20.7%	95.2	10.1%
	L14	3	4.19	4.15	20.6%	8.2%	45.1%	40.4%	15.4%	95.0	11.5%

Taillon is one of those pitchers that always feels underpriced across the industry. He hasn’t had many huge outings this season, but he has a high floor and in the right matchup, a high ceiling as well. In 18 starts this season, he owns a 3.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of of 22% and a ground ball rate of 50%. He induces a lot of soft contact, he has good velocity on his fastball, and he has an above-average swinging strike rate. Basically, everything checks out for Taillon, he just needs to put everything together. At a price of only $5,700 on DraftKings, I don’t see why we shouldn’t have interest in Taillon as an SP2 in both cash games and tournaments. A matchup against the Brewers isn’t great, but he’s facing them at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is an elite SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have a talented lineup, but they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates. His k-rate does take a nose dive against lefties, but he has still managed to hold them to a .315 xwOBA on a 49% ground ball rate. Even though the table below is loaded with blue boxes, I’m planning to be underweight on the Brewers. I would rather take a chance on a cheap Jameson Taillon in hopes that he can quiet this talented offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.411	92.6	0.328	48.8%	12.1%	27.0%	33.3%	OF	$4,200	1B/OF	$4,700	1B	$9,400
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	89.1	0.112	35.3%	13.4%	19.4%	59.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.394	93.1	0.196	45.7%	10.8%	22.9%	51.0%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,100
4	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.395	90.6	0.314	46.0%	7.9%	27.8%	31.4%	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,100
5	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.400	90.2	0.276	41.8%	14.2%	17.6%	33.9%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,000
6	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.388	87.3	0.368	44.8%	4.9%	24.4%	32.1%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,400	3B	$6,900
7	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.351	92.1	0.191	46.6%	10.7%	31.5%	34.0%	SS	$2,500	1B/2B	$3,600	2B	$7,500
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.302	92.5	0.163	56.3%	2.1%	23.4%	40.6%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
9	Wade Miley	LEFT	0.241	96.3	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$6,000	P	$4,700	P	$9,300
	Team Averages		0.357	91.5	0.216	46.1%	8.5%	21.6%	46.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames (GPP), Travis Shaw (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are the preferred offense to target in this game. They draw a favorable matchup against Wade Miley, who has historically struggled against both left and right-handed hitters. He doesn’t have the best command and he could be a little rusty in his first major league start in more than two months. Each of the first six batters in the Pirates’ offense has a .320+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season — Josh Harrison, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Francisco Cervelli, David Freese, and Josh Bell. I wouldn’t rule out a Pirates’ stack, although they are a bit more expensive than I was hoping.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.341	87.3	0.115	39.1%	1.9%	11.1%	34.8%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,600
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.347	88.9	0.217	34.6%	7.9%	23.7%	52.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	CF	$8,700
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.321	84.3	0.250	36.4%	10.8%	27.0%	32.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,100
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.402	92.9	0.176	37.5%	19.0%	23.8%	33.3%	C	$2,700	C	$4,000	C	$7,600
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.355	91.7	0.030	39.2%	9.2%	23.7%	56.9%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.323	89.5	0.141	23.2%	14.1%	20.0%	39.3%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
7	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.276	85.5	0.119	20.4%	2.8%	18.3%	42.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,400
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.348	89.5	0.141	35.0%	6.3%	15.2%	35.0%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.309	69.1	0.000	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%	100.0%	P	$7,300	P	$5,700	P	$10,900
	Team Averages		0.336	86.5	0.132	29.5%	10.2%	20.3%	47.5%

Elite Plays – Josh Harrison, Francisco Cervelli

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, David Freese, Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Cleveland
			Luis Severino							Corey Kluber
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-103							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.238	0.298	34.8%	88.0	32.0%	46.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.246	0.266	34.0%	86.7	27.8%	44.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.249	0.290	30.9%	87.2	28.3%	44.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.303	38.3%	87.9	23.7%	47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,600	Salary:			$10,800	Salary:		$21,100
	Salary Rank:			2 of 20	Salary Rank:			5 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%	97.6	13.0%
	2018	19	3.08	2.12	29.8%	6.5%	45.2%	32.3%	21.8%	97.8	12.7%
	L14	3	3.30	1.45	27.8%	6.9%	46.8%	34.0%	17.0%	98.2	12.4%

Severino is one of the many aces to take the mound tonight. While he’s capable of dominating any lineup in any ballpark, he certainly has the toughest draw of the top arms in this slate. He not only has to face the Indians, but he has to face them on the road in a ballpark that favors left-handed power. A quick glance at the Indians’ lineup is all I need to make a decision on Severino. Cleveland’s projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .360 xwOBA, a .197 ISO, and a 40% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. In a different slate that didn’t feature so many good options at pitcher, I would give Severino a harder look.

Quick Breakdown: I’m a huge Severino fan, but not in this matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,200	Salary:			$10,200	Salary:		$19,500
	Salary Rank:			3 of 20	Salary Rank:			6 of 20	Salary Rank:		5 of 20
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%	92.6	15.6%
	2018	19	3.12	2.49	25.6%	3.1%	46.2%	36.4%	16.1%	92.1	10.7%
	L14	3	4.72	5.52	15.6%	4.7%	31.4%	35.3%	15.7%	92.7	10.8%

Kluber hasn’t quite looked like himself in his last three starts. He was lit up by the Cardinals in a game that featured a lengthy rain delay and then posted mediocre outings against the A’s and Royals. The good news is that he hasn’t seen a dip in velocity or in his swinging strike rate during that stretch. The bad news is that he draws a difficult matchup against the Yankees, whose projected lineup has a .335 xwOBA and a .201 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. I slightly prefer Kluber over Severino, but will likely have no exposure to either ace.

Quick Breakdown: It wouldn’t surprise me to see a good outing from Kluber, but I’ll pass given his form and matchup.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

While I won’t have any exposure to these two starters, I at least gave them consideration. As for these two offenses, they have already been crossed off my list of potential targets. In addition to a high strikeout rate (26%), Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.308	87.1	0.152	29.9%	12.4%	15.3%	50.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,100
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.401	96.5	0.300	49.0%	14.1%	30.9%	46.3%	OF	$4,600	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,200
3	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.361	88.9	0.217	38.4%	14.1%	18.6%	43.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	CF	$8,900
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.300	91.3	0.183	33.8%	8.3%	33.9%	53.9%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,500
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.349	88.5	0.245	39.7%	9.2%	12.7%	34.2%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
6	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.352	90.2	0.202	36.6%	2.8%	17.2%	49.4%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.318	88.8	0.227	37.1%	9.1%	26.3%	38.7%	1B	$2,700	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
8	Kyle Higashioka	RIGHT	0.291	84.6	0.200	36.4%	11.8%	23.5%	18.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,300
9	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.337	88.3	0.080	35.9%	10.3%	21.2%	41.9%	2B	$2,300	1B/2B	$3,200	2B	$6,300
	Team Averages		0.335	89.4	0.201	37.4%	10.2%	22.2%	41.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are fresh off a 19-run outing against the Reds, but we will not see a repeat tonight. I know anything can happen in baseball, but the Indians will not score 19 runs against Luis Severino and the Yankees’ bullpen. On the season, Severino has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and he has an elite strikeout rate against both.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.411	89.4	0.290	41.1%	9.9%	19.5%	35.7%	SS	$4,800	SS	$5,000	SS	$9,700
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.412	91.2	0.207	43.1%	6.8%	8.8%	42.1%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.424	89.5	0.342	39.1%	16.8%	11.5%	31.2%	3B	$4,600	3B	$4,800	IF/OF	$8,600
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.392	90.5	0.269	42.9%	8.3%	23.4%	38.1%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,200
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.382	90.5	0.180	40.9%	9.7%	20.7%	38.0%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.353	87.2	0.127	37.6%	9.7%	19.0%	36.5%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,500
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.278	88.0	0.160	40.2%	4.6%	32.2%	37.4%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$5,500
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.320	90.1	0.086	40.0%	4.0%	25.8%	52.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,500
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.266	86.0	0.116	38.0%	5.8%	24.3%	42.6%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.360	89.2	0.197	40.3%	8.4%	20.6%	39.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 12th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Arizona at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Philadelphia at Baltimore – 6:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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