MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-17 02:45:59

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Cincinnati at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					Atlanta
			Dan Straily					Matt Wisler
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CIN -111					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.288	5	15.5%	14.6%	SP vs. Left	0.374	18	12.3%	10.6%
SP vs. Right	0.292	5	26.4%	5.8%	SP vs. Right	0.284	10	20.0%	4.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dan Straily
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$9,200
					FPPG:		27.5	FPPG:		14.7
					Pitcher Rating:		62.3	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	6	104.3	4.31	2.84	21.9%	9.7%	8.2%	39.6%	37.6%	30.8%
2016	11	112.4	4.51	3.15	21.1%	10.5%	10.0%	37.8%	39.8%	30.1%
2015	3	97.0	4.67	5.40	18.4%	10.5%	9.6%	41.5%	37.7%	28.3%

This series has been higher scoring than anyone could have imagined. Typically when two bad offenses square off in a pitcher’s ballpark, there aren’t a lot of runs to go around. That hasn’t been the case so far, as the two teams have combined for 32 runs in the first three games of the series. Straily will take the mound for Cincinnati today. In 11 starts this season, he has a 4.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.1%. On paper, this looks like a good matchup for Straily, but the Braves have a number of left-handed hitters in their lineup that could cause some problems.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Wisler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$5,900
					FPPG:		23.6	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		58.2	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	6	91.2	4.17	5.66	20.1%	6.0%	8.2%	35.8%	42.2%	40.9%
2016	12	93.7	4.55	4.36	17.5%	6.4%	7.7%	37.2%	44.9%	38.8%
2015	19	93.3	4.98	4.71	15.1%	8.4%	8.1%	33.6%	43.2%	28.2%

Wisler hasn’t exactly dominated this season, posting a 4.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.5%. He is a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Some of that is negated by the pitcher’s park that is Turner Field, but there is a reason why he has allowed 28 home runs in his last 29 starts. If you are looking for an SP2 on DraftKings, I prefer Wisler over Straily just because he is $2,300 cheaper. However, you don’t need to force either of these pitchers into your lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds run projection is right near the average of the 20 teams in action today. They draw a favorable matchup against Matt Wisler, but they are facing him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. As I mentioned above, Wisler is a fly-ball pitcher that has struggled to keep the ball in the park. He also has a major gap in his splits that we can exploit. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .374 wOBA to left-handed hitters, while holding righties to a .284 wOBA.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.9% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.38 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.07 (10 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.322	0.197	0.324	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,600
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.404	0.236	0.462	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,700
3	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.313	0.121	0.276	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,500
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.333	0.256	0.480	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,100
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.374	0.348	0.317	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,000
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.306	0.166	0.377	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,200
7	Tyler Holt	RIGHT	0.253	0.049	0.294	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.293	0.088	0.360	C	$2,500	C	$2,700
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.046	0.000	0.000	P	$7,100	P	$9,200
	Team Averages	—	0.294	0.162	0.321	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta

The Braves are small underdogs tonight, but their run projection is right behind the Reds in terms of the ranking. They may not hit right-handed pitching well as a team, but they draw a favorable matchup against Dan Straily, who has allowed a .323 wOBA to left-handed hitters in his career. Mallex Smith, Ender Inciarte, and Freddie Freeman all bat at the top of the order and are all on my radar today.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.281 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.098 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.17 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.93 (11 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.380	0.212	0.339	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.342	0.120	0.292	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.362	0.211	0.328	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,600
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.338	0.097	0.218	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
5	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.297	0.136	0.270	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,000
6	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.316	0.125	0.168	C	$2,600	C	$2,500
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.302	0.092	0.525	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$2,300
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.275	0.067	0.402	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,200
9	Matt Wisler	RIGHT	0.136	0.000	0.000	P	$7,500	P	$5,900
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.118	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Adonis Garcia

Stackability – GPP

Seattle at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					Tampa Bay
			James Paxton					Blake Snell
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -110					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.448	2	23.3%	14.0%	SP vs. Left	0.098	0	22.2%	0.0%
SP vs. Right	0.277	9	21.1%	7.4%	SP vs. Right	0.157	0	40.0%	10.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
James Paxton
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,800
					FPPG:		36.0	FPPG:		20.3
					Pitcher Rating:		73.7	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	3	103.7	2.47	2.25	32.9%	5.5%	13.2%	50.0%	22.7%	33.3%
2016	3	103.7	2.47	2.25	32.9%	5.5%	13.2%	50.0%	22.7%	33.3%
2015	13	85.5	4.44	3.90	18.9%	9.8%	7.2%	48.3%	34.4%	29.7%

Paxton is making his fourth start of the season. He has looked sharp in his first three, posting a 2.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32.9%. It’s nice to see the 27-year old finally have some success at the major league level. He is certainly worth keeping an eye on moving forward, especially if he stays at this price point. Unfortunately, he draws a very difficult matchup tonight against the Rays, who are ranked third in team wOBA and first in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. All of the righties in their lineup really make it tough on southpaws.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Blake Snell
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,700
					FPPG:		30.0	FPPG:		19.5
					Pitcher Rating:		77.7	Pitcher Rank:		4
2016	1	90.0	3.08	1.80	31.6%	5.3%	6.7%	25.0%	58.3%	41.7%

Snell will be called up to start today’s game and it sounds like the Rays could keep him around for a while. He is the club’s top pitching prospect, posting a 3.29 ERA with a strikeout rate of 33.3% in 12 Triple-A starts this season. The upside is immense for this young left-hander and while I typically like to give pitchers a few starts before targeting them in DFS, Snell is worth a look in all league formats today. Not only does he already have one major league start under his belt, but he is pitching at home in what is a pitcher-friendly environment.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are a top five offense in terms of runs scored per game this season. They are slightly better against right-handed pitchers, but are still ranked 15th in team wOBA against southpaws. They draw a wildcard matchup today against Blake Snell, who is a top pitching prospect that is only making his second career start. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are certainly worth a look if you don’t trust the inexperienced Snell.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.175 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.9% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.00 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.69 (16 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.311	0.138	0.284	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200
2	Franklin Gutierrez	RIGHT	0.392	0.256	0.306	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,900
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.308	0.147	0.381	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,600
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.443	0.324	0.405	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,900
5	Dae-ho Lee	RIGHT	0.400	0.316	0.440	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,400
6	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.334	0.210	0.392	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,000
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.361	0.165	0.484	C	$2,900	C	$3,600
8	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.258	0.095	0.170	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
9	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.292	0.029	0.253	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.344	0.187	0.346	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-Ho Lee

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching, but come into today’s game with the sixth lowest team total on the board. Their matchup against James Paxton is less than ideal, although we have seen them fare well against good left-handed pitchers in the past. While I like the Rays’ offense overall, I have a hard time listing any of their hitters as elite plays.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.204 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.2% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.81 (15 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.412	0.299	0.164	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,400
2	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.413	0.329	0.235	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.392	0.224	0.537	3B	$3,800	3B	$5,200
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.346	0.234	0.486	OF	$3,200	1B/2B	$3,800
5	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.245	0.072	0.428	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,200
6	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.328	0.195	0.295	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
7	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.260	0.054	0.414	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.296	0.217	0.362	2B	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,500
9	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.340	0.264	0.434	C	$2,900	C	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.337	0.210	0.373	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Oakland
			Colby Lewis					Daniel Mengden
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -130					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.320	19	13.8%	5.6%	SP vs. Left	0.866	1	0.0%	44.4%
SP vs. Right	0.297	19	19.3%	4.3%	SP vs. Right	0.103	0	27.8%	0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Colby Lewis
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		30.0	FPPG:		15.8
					Pitcher Rating:		53.2	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	6	93.8	4.54	2.77	14.7%	3.3%	6.2%	38.7%	41.2%	39.3%
2016	13	95.5	4.57	3.00	16.2%	5.1%	7.6%	37.4%	43.2%	37.6%
2015	33	96.4	4.43	4.66	16.5%	4.9%	8.2%	33.7%	44.2%	33.3%

Lewis continues to be a top candidate for negative regression. His ERA this season is a full run and a half lower than his SIERA. For a pitcher with a BABIP of .296 in his career, it’s hard to imagine his .249 BABIP this season being sustainable for much longer. Even though the A’s have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, they are one of the toughest teams to strikeout in baseball. Lewis is an easy fade for me in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Daniel Mengden
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,700
					FPPG:		26.0	FPPG:		12.8
					Pitcher Rating:		38.2	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	1	104.0	5.60	3.18	18.5%	14.8%	11.5%	23.5%	41.2%	22.2%
2016	1	104.0	5.57	3.18	18.5%	14.8%	11.5%	23.5%	41.2%	22.2%

Mengden is making his second career major league start. He gave up two runs in his first outing, while striking out five batters in under six innings of work. He has pitched very well in the minor leagues this season, but comes into tonight’s game as an underdog at home. This certainly isn’t a great matchup, as the Rangers are ranked above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. I’ll continue to take a wait and see approach with Mengden.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers come into today’s game with the third highest run projection on the board. That says more about the short slate than it does about their actual matchup. However, they do get to face an inexperienced right-hander in Daniel Mengden. All of the left-handed hitters in this lineup are in play.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.43 (3 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.395	0.212	0.545	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.299	0.149	0.365	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.400	0.218	0.360	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.310	0.148	0.329	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,400
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.446	0.261	0.394	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,500
6	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.352	0.149	0.294	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,100
7	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.325	0.215	0.331	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,800
8	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.280	0.081	0.317	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,400
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.258	0.085	0.202	C	$2,500	C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.169	0.349	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Oakland

The A’s are statistically one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but a favorable matchup is always the great equalizer. As I mentioned above, it’s going to be hard to Colby Lewis to sustain his level of success. He hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate in his career and I always like targeting hitters against fly-ball pitchers that have a low strikeout rate.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.299 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.7% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.02 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.07 (9 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.252	0.117	0.155	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,100
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.298	0.118	0.337	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,000
3	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.347	0.196	0.407	C	$3,500	C	$3,300
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.366	0.230	0.496	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,200
5	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.348	0.256	0.325	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.322	0.103	0.400	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,700
7	Billy Butler	RIGHT	0.301	0.132	0.502	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,800
8	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.289	0.147	0.364	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,000
9	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.293	0.085	0.226	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.154	0.357	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Stephen Vogt, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Billy Burns, Khris Davis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Toronto at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					Philadelphia
			J.A. Happ					Aaron Nola
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -130					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.291	3	23.9%	6.5%	SP vs. Left	0.308	8	18.2%	7.5%
SP vs. Right	0.311	25	18.1%	6.6%	SP vs. Right	0.261	10	28.5%	3.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		29.9	FPPG:		14.7
					Pitcher Rating:		76.3	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	6	87.5	4.65	6.03	16.2%	7.8%	8.4%	47.7%	35.5%	38.0%
2016	13	92.8	4.64	3.70	15.9%	7.2%	8.7%	45.0%	34.1%	32.8%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Happ is another regression candidate, although we have already started to see some of that come into play. Over the last month, he has an ERA over 6.00. He isn’t a high strikeout pitcher at this stage in his career, but he does get a massive matchup boost tonight. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 24th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against southpaws. You will never feel great about rostering Happ, but this is one of the few nights where you can feel somewhat confident.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Nola
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$9,600
					FPPG:		37.5	FPPG:		21.0
					Pitcher Rating:		68.8	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	6	95.8	3.04	2.78	25.0%	5.1%	11.1%	56.3%	23.3%	23.4%
2016	13	94.7	2.91	2.98	26.5%	4.8%	10.3%	55.0%	25.0%	23.0%
2015	13	85.9	3.66	3.59	21.4%	6.0%	8.6%	47.6%	32.4%	28.8%

Nola is having a breakout season, posting a 2.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.5% and a walk rate of 4.8%. He has struggled a bit with his consistency, but we are willing to overlook that with such a high strikeout rate. While I do like his strikeout upside for GPPs, I have a hard time taking pitchers against Toronto in cash games. They are a team that can put runs up quickly, especially in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays come into the game with the sixth highest team total on the board. They are ranked inside the top ten in team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season and they are facing a young pitcher in a somewhat hitter-friendly ballpark. I probably won’t be overweight on the Blue Jays’ hitters tonight, but I’ll certainly have some exposure given the short slate and the limited options.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.32 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (6 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.387	0.286	0.328	OF	$4,200	OF	$3,900
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.382	0.258	0.371	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,000
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.372	0.264	0.451	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,700
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.345	0.172	0.487	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.303	0.174	0.383	C	$3,100	C	$3,000
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.306	0.127	0.355	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
7	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.332	0.158	0.201	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.294	0.119	0.314	2B	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,400
9	J.A. Happ	LEFT	0.158	0.000		P	$8,000	P	$7,300
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.173	0.361	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia

The Phillies have been one of the worst offenses in baseball all season. While we have seen mediocre pitchers have success in this matchup, we have also seen the Phillies put up some runs in favorable spots. They draw a decent matchup tonight against J.A. Happ, who is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed 25 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.266 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.103 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.2% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.27 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (14 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.320	0.078	0.356	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.251	0.033	0.134	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.338	0.246	0.325	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.511	0.316	0.387	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.347	0.193	0.343	C	$2,600	C	$3,600
6	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.309	0.065	0.273	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,200
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.254	0.081	0.254	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100
8	Jimmy Paredes	SWITCH	0.274	0.082	0.210	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,600
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.086	0.000	0.000	P	$9,100	P	$9,600
	Team Averages	—	0.299	0.122	0.254	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Boston
			Tyler Wilson					Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -135					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.308	3	8.9%	7.5%	SP vs. Left	0.339	7	19.0%	4.4%
SP vs. Right	0.329	5	12.8%	5.3%	SP vs. Right	0.306	11	17.4%	8.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Wilson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		16.5	FPPG:		7.8
					Pitcher Rating:		25.8	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	5	88.0	5.06	6.67	11.7%	6.3%	6.6%	48.0%	37.3%	34.3%
2016	9	101.4	4.90	4.73	11.9%	5.9%	6.1%	47.5%	34.3%	30.9%
2015	5	104.0	5.08	3.50	8.7%	7.4%	5.2%	52.0%	30.1%	31.5%

Wilson was originally slated to pitch last night, but will instead start tonight’s game. He’ll likely be in for the same fate regardless, as he has to face the best offense in baseball. The Red Sox currently lead the majors in runs scored per game and Wilson has to face them in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. There is more risk than potential reward for Wilson tonight and he can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Eduardo Rodriguez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,500
					FPPG:		16.3	FPPG:		6.3
					Pitcher Rating:		51.3	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	3	93.7	6.24	6.06	10.0%	10.0%	6.1%	33.9%	53.6%	30.4%
2016	3	93.7	6.24	6.06	10.0%	10.0%	6.1%	33.9%	53.6%	30.4%
2015	21	95.7	4.16	3.85	18.8%	7.1%	7.8%	43.0%	33.4%	31.4%

Rodriguez has really struggled in his first three starts of the season, posting a 6.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 10%. It’s always a major red flag for a pitcher when his walk rate is as high as his strikeout rate. Even though the Red Sox are favorites tonight, Rodriguez may not pitch deep enough into the game to even be eligible for the win. Both of these pitchers should be avoided in what is expected to be a high scoring game.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles may be underdogs tonight, but they still have the second highest implied run total of the 20 teams in action. They draw a terrific matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, who has not looked good in his first three starts of the season. We typically like right-handed hitters against southpaws, but Rodriguez has struggled with left-handed hitters as well.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.305 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.179 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.5% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.82 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.54 (2 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.279	0.145	0.382	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.368	0.218	0.327	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.351	0.194	0.374	SS	$4,100	3B/SS	$4,800
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.345	0.215	0.448	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,500
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.356	0.278	0.399	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,000
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.293	0.147	0.283	C	$2,800	C	$3,500
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.261	0.102	0.320	2B	$3,500	2B	$2,900
8	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.335	0.143	0.279	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.273	0.111	0.358	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.173	0.352	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston

Without a game in Coors Field tonight, the Red Sox have the highest team total on the board. They are projected to score just under five runs, which seems a bit low given their favorable matchup against Tyler Wilson. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and we can load up on the Red Sox in both cash games and tournaments.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.360 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.192 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.2% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.95 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.96 (1 of 20)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.360	0.207	0.481	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,400
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.357	0.156	0.367	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,900
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.344	0.120	0.407	SS	$3,900	SS	$5,500
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.435	0.345	0.451	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,600
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.305	0.133	0.201	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,000
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.377	0.277	0.315	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,300
7	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.440	0.000	0.531	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,700
8	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.342	0.189	0.176	3B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,900
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.240	0.087	0.195	C	$2,000	C	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.356	0.168	0.347	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 16th

Cincinnati at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Adonis Garcia

Stackability – GPP

Seattle at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Franklin Gutierrez, Dae-Ho Lee

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Stephen Vogt, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Billy Burns, Khris Davis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Toronto at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, Russell Martin

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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