MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-03 01:40:21

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

San Francisco at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Atlanta
			Madison Bumgarner					Aaron Blair
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -230					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.235	3	33.0%	4.4%	SP vs. Left	0.408	1	5.0%	15.0%
SP vs. Right	0.276	24	25.9%	5.4%	SP vs. Right	0.309	0	15.9%	7.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Madison Bumgarner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$12,000	Salary:		$12,900
					FPPG:		44.3	FPPG:		24.6
					Pitcher Rating:		99.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	3	108.7	3.00	0.79	26.4%	4.6%	12.9%	51.8%	30.4%	23.7%
2016	11	106.0	3.34	2.12	27.6%	7.3%	11.0%	41.7%	38.0%	30.6%
2015	32	103.5	3.00	2.93	26.9%	4.5%	12.5%	41.7%	35.6%	27.8%

Bumgarner is having another standout season for the Giants. Through 11 starts, he has a 3.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%. He doesn’t walk many batters, he generates a lot of swings and misses, and he can induce ground balls when he needs to. He draws the best matchup on the board today, as the Braves are ranked 30th in team wOBA, 30th in team ISO, and 22nd in team K% against left-handed pitching this season. I may join the all-day leagues just to take advantage of the great spot for Bumgarner.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Blair
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$5,100
					FPPG:		10.0	FPPG:		3.0
					Pitcher Rating:		34.4	Pitcher Rank:		20
L14 Days	2	67.0	4.52	14.14	15.0%	7.5%	6.7%	48.3%	24.1%	33.3%
2016	6	78.0	5.86	6.67	10.6%	11.4%	6.8%	41.9%	32.3%	25.3%

Blair is making his seventh start of the season, posting a 5.68 SIERA in his first six with a walk rate (11.4%) that is higher than his strikeout rate (10.6%). This is obviously a major red flag and it doesn’t help that he enters the game as the largest underdog on the schedule today. There is way more risk than potential reward with Blair and he can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants may not be playing in the best hitter’s park around, but they do have one of the best matchups on the schedule. Aaron Blair has not fared well in his first six starts of the season, allowing a .408 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. You can also look to the right-handed hitters in this lineup, but give a small edge to those that hit from the left side.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.8% (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.40 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.25 (10 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.360	0.122	0.282	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.357	0.164	0.295	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,800
3	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.331	0.139	0.307	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,600
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.352	0.154	0.329	C	$3,800	C	$4,600
5	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.366	0.196	0.394	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.343	0.220	0.339	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900
7	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.362	0.291	0.274	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
8	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.327	0.117	0.382	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,300
9	Madison Bumgarner	LEFT	0.269	0.160	0.209	P	$12,000	P	$12,900
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.174	0.312	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta

The Braves’ offense offers little resistance against opposing pitchers these days, especially those that are left-handed. They are ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO this season. They draw an awful matchup against Madison Bumgarner, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.261 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.084 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.1% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.19 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.75 (22 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.239	0.047	0.270	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,300
2	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.326	0.189	0.405	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,900
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.323	0.126	0.265	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,300
4	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.306	0.122	0.534	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,100
5	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.345	0.207	0.138	3B	$2,000	3B/OF	$2,400
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.327	0.111	0.383	C	$2,000	C	$2,300
7	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.259	0.115	0.104	2B	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,000
8	Aaron Blair	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$4,900	P	$5,100
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.140	0.063	0.307	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.252	0.109	0.267	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Houston
			Zack Greinke					Dallas Keuchel
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -135					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.271	11	21.3%	6.0%	SP vs. Left	0.230	5	22.7%	4.2%
SP vs. Right	0.236	12	24.2%	3.6%	SP vs. Right	0.288	20	22.6%	6.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zack Greinke
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$10,900
					FPPG:		29.4	FPPG:		14.5
					Pitcher Rating:		72.5	Pitcher Rank:		9
L14 Days	3	100.7	3.53	3.43	20.0%	2.5%	7.3%	50.8%	36.1%	29.0%
2016	11	98.3	3.71	4.71	20.1%	4.7%	10.3%	48.2%	31.4%	28.6%
2015	32	101.2	3.27	1.66	23.7%	4.7%	12.0%	48.0%	32.9%	26.8%

Greinke hasn’t been quite as bad as his 4.71 ERA would suggest, but he is still having a down season by his standards. Through 11 starts, he owns a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.1%. His swinging strike rate is down, while his hard hit contact rate is up. He is a boom or bust play today against the Astros. While they do strikeout at a high rate, they also have the ninth highest team ISO against right-handed pitching. The fact that he is this big of an underdog against the struggling Dallas Keuchel tells you a lot about where Vegas thinks his game is at.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dallas Keuchel
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		26.3	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		80.7	Pitcher Rank:		3
L14 Days	3	101.7	3.64	5.59	20.0%	5.0%	6.9%	50.0%	25.9%	23.7%
2016	11	104.7	3.99	5.58	19.3%	8.6%	9.5%	55.7%	22.6%	29.2%
2015	33	105.8	2.84	2.48	23.7%	5.6%	10.3%	61.7%	19.6%	21.3%

Of the two pitchers in this game, I prefer Keuchel over Zack Greinke. He has not been nearly as bad as his 5.58 ERA would suggest, but he is having a down season overall. In 11 starts, he has a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.3%. His main problem has been luck. His BABIP is the highest it has been in three years, while his left on-base percentage is the lowest it has been in that time frame. Look for some positive regression moving forward. He draws a decent matchup today against the Diamondbacks at home and his price is awfully enticing for the all-day slate, as it allows you to load up on Coors Field.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks come into this game with the third lowest team total on the board. Obviously, Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned with Dallas Keuchel recent struggles. As I mentioned above, his advanced statistics look much better than his ERA does. I always hate targeting hitters against elite ground ball pitchers, so I will label the Diamondbacks as strictly GPP plays in this one.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.344 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.200 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.3% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.56 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.54 (20 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.298	0.106	0.239	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,900
2	Rickie Weeks	RIGHT	0.321	0.182	0.391	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.432	0.223	0.476	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,000
4	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.364	0.282	0.212	C	$2,600	C	$3,200
5	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.343	0.215	0.259	OF	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,100
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.374	0.236	0.234	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.269	0.145	0.333	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900
8	Phil Gosselin	RIGHT	0.368	0.130	0.274	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,600
9	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.328	0.152	0.326	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.344	0.186	0.305	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Stackability – NONE

Houston

The Astros may be favored in this game, but this is not an offense that I will be actively targeting. Even with his recent struggles, Zack Greinke is not a pitcher that I want to pick on. Over the last two seasons, he has held left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA. With this game having such a low over/under, I will only be look at these two offenses in tournaments.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.1% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.22 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.96 (14 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.346	0.177	0.469	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.338	0.158	0.288	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,300
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.355	0.206	0.260	SS	$4,100	SS	$3,400
4	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.331	0.230	0.204	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.319	0.220	0.368	C	$3,300	OF	$3,400
6	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.341	0.222	0.411	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,300
7	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.342	0.181	0.189	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,500
8	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.327	0.204	0.281	C	$2,800	C	$3,000
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.278	0.100	0.300	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.331	0.189	0.308	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – NONE

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Dodgers					Chicago Cubs
			Julio Urias					Kyle Hendricks
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -155					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.230	0	66.7%	33.3%	SP vs. Left	0.329	13	21.4%	6.9%
SP vs. Right	0.515	0	7.1%	21.4%	SP vs. Right	0.250	6	22.7%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Julio Urias
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		8.0	FPPG:		0.6
					Pitcher Rating:		55.0	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	1	81.0	7.17	10.13	17.7%	23.5%	6.2%	20.0%	40.0%	60.0%
2016	1	81.0	7.10	10.13	17.7%	23.5%	6.2%	20.0%	40.0%	60.0%

The 19-year old top pitching prospect didn’t exactly have the major league debut that he was hoping for. Urias didn’t make it out of the third inning against the Mets, allowing five hits, four walks, and three earned runs. While I still expect big things from Urias, it may take a while for them to come to fruition. We have to remember that he is the youngest pitcher in baseball. For now, it won’t hurt to take a wait and see approach.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kyle Hendricks
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:		15.9
					Pitcher Rating:		78.4	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	3	90.3	4.19	2.75	18.2%	6.5%	9.2%	49.1%	34.5%	19.3%
2016	9	88.6	3.48	2.93	20.6%	5.5%	8.5%	57.2%	25.0%	22.6%
2015	32	87.3	3.37	3.95	22.6%	5.8%	8.1%	51.3%	26.9%	25.8%

Hendricks has pitched well in his first ten starts, posting a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.6%. He generates an elite ground ball rate and he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. The only knock on him is that he usually doesn’t pitch deep into games. He is only averaging 88.6 pitches per start this season. While he would typically be a standout play in a three-game slate, I prefer Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel in the early-only leagues.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers check in with the sixth lowest team total on the board. They are sizable underdogs against Kyle Hendricks, who has pitched well over the last two seasons. His one weakness has been against left-handed hitters. During that stretch, he has allowed a .329 wOBA and 13 home runs to batters from the left side of the plate.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.134 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.26 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.93 (17 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.322	0.154	0.332	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.361	0.186	0.294	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.353	0.171	0.331	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,100
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.360	0.207	0.374	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,800
5	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.350	0.221	0.180	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
6	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.359	0.209	0.303	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
7	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.319	0.179	0.238	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
8	Carl Crawford	LEFT	0.284	0.130	0.145	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800
9	Julio Urias	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,700	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.301	0.162	0.244	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw an interesting matchup against the young rookie, Julio Urias. While he has incredible potential, the 19 year-old is not yet polished, especially at the major league level. The Cubs have the sixth highest team total on the board, making them a viable offense to target in all league formats. Give a slight edge to the right-handed hitters in this one.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.158 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.5% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.43 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.57 (6 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.370	0.148	0.414	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.311	0.079	0.241	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.346	0.222	0.416	3B	$3,700	3B/OF	$4,800
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.362	0.181	0.252	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,100
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.302	0.112	0.414	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.259	0.144	0.213	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,200
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.436	0.135	0.216	SS	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,800
8	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.325	0.182	0.400	C	$2,600	C	$3,000
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.134	0.063	0.176	P	$8,300	P	$8,900
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.141	0.305	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Baez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Boston					Baltimore
			Rick Porcello					Ubaldo Jimenez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -125					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.325	19	21.6%	5.7%	SP vs. Left	0.329	16	21.8%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.338	14	19.9%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.336	9	19.1%	9.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Rick Porcello
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,100
					FPPG:		37.4	FPPG:		19.2
					Pitcher Rating:		59.7	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	3	109.0	4.22	5.19	16.7%	5.1%	7.7%	48.3%	34.5%	31.0%
2016	10	106.0	3.59	3.68	22.4%	5.3%	7.6%	47.2%	34.4%	29.4%
2015	28	98.0	3.73	4.92	20.2%	5.2%	8.5%	45.7%	32.5%	32.8%

Porcello is having a successful season by Red Sox pitching standards. In his first ten starts, he has a 3.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.4%. He doesn’t have the highest swinging strike rate, but he throws a lot of strikes which helps him get into more favorable counts. While I don’t hate him as a contrarian GPP play tonight, the risk is a little too high for me to use him in cash games. Last night was a perfect example of what the Orioles’ offense is capable of.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ubaldo Jimenez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		20.5	FPPG:		8.2
					Pitcher Rating:		49.4	Pitcher Rank:		18
L14 Days	3	76.7	5.99	11.57	12.5%	15.6%	5.2%	47.8%	21.7%	32.6%
2016	10	94.6	4.73	6.36	18.0%	12.0%	7.3%	52.6%	24.6%	30.6%
2015	32	95.6	3.93	4.11	21.2%	8.6%	8.0%	49.1%	28.8%	27.0%

Jimenez has been rocked in his last two starts, which has brought his SIERA up to 4.73 on the season. We generally are willing to live with a high walk rate when it is accompanied by a high strikeout rate, but so far this season, Jimenez hasn’t been able to generate enough strikeouts. To make matters worse, he has to face the best offense in baseball in the Red Sox. Jimenez should be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are ranked first in runs scored per game and first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have the highest team total on the board outside of Coors Field, as they square off against Ubaldo Jimenez in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and the best part is that Boston’s bats will be significantly lower owned than the Reds or the Rockies. Oh, and Mookie Betts has FIVE home runs in his last two games and Xander Bogaerts is riding a 25-game hitting streak.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.359 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.189 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.6% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.98 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.90 (3 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.352	0.191	0.536	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,500
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.355	0.155	0.431	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,000
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.338	0.115	0.412	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,300
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.431	0.346	0.608	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,500
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.314	0.141	0.234	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,400
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.358	0.201	0.276	3B	$3,900	1B/3B	$4,300
7	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.440	0.000	0.538	P	$5,500	P	$4,700
8	Blake Swihart	SWITCH	0.320	0.136	0.293	C	$2,600	C/OF	$3,600
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.241	0.095	0.201	C	$2,300	C	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.350	0.153	0.392	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles broke out offensively last night against Joe Kelly and the Red Sox. While momentum generally goes as far as the next starting pitcher in baseball, Baltimore has the fifth highest team total on the board. Their matchup against Rick Porcello isn’t perfect by any means, but he has allowed a .325 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.336 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.5% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.53 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (5 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.331	0.196	0.220	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
2	Hyun Soo Kim	LEFT	0.408	0.120	0.470	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.393	0.253	0.390	SS	$4,200	3B/SS	$4,700
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.395	0.320	0.248	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.335	0.184	0.321	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.337	0.164	0.360	C	$3,000	C	$3,400
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.330	0.227	0.326	3B	$2,800	1B	$3,000
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.357	0.238	0.310	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,400
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.271	0.134	0.215	2B	$2,200	3B	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.204	0.318	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Hyun Soo Kim

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Philadelphia
			Chase Anderson					Jerad Eickhoff
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -110					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.320	12	19.7%	9.0%	SP vs. Left	0.364	9	17.1%	6.0%
SP vs. Right	0.346	18	15.7%	4.2%	SP vs. Right	0.237	4	27.1%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chase Anderson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		22.2	FPPG:		10.8
					Pitcher Rating:		61.5	Pitcher Rank:		12
L14 Days	3	95.7	3.91	2.89	20.6%	4.1%	8.0%	34.6%	44.2%	36.5%
2016	10	92.5	4.43	5.00	18.0%	6.8%	7.2%	39.3%	40.5%	37.0%
2015	27	91.2	4.26	4.30	17.3%	6.3%	8.0%	42.0%	34.4%	27.2%

Anderson is having a similar season to a year ago. In ten starts with the Brewers, he has a 4.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Even though his matchup against the Phillies looks good on paper, this is actually a sneaky spot to target the Philly bats. Citizens Bank Park is actually a home run-friendly ballpark and Anderson has allowed 30 homers in his last 37 starts.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jerad Eickhoff
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		27.2	FPPG:		14.3
					Pitcher Rating:		80.3	Pitcher Rank:		4
L14 Days	2	97.0	3.83	2.77	19.2%	3.9%	7.7%	39.5%	28.9%	25.6%
2016	10	93.0	3.86	4.07	20.1%	4.8%	8.9%	42.0%	33.7%	30.3%
2015	8	92.4	3.56	2.65	24.1%	6.4%	10.4%	37.9%	40.0%	36.2%

Eickhoff is arguably the best value pitcher available tonight. In his first ten starts of the season, he has a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate over 20%. He doesn’t walk many batters and he boasts a 25% strikeout rate at home in his career. He could end up being a popular pick tonight, as rostering him frees up cap space to spend up on the hitters in Coors Field and/or Camden Yards. The Brewers have the highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have been mediocre offensively against right-handed pitching, but a lot of their outs are unproductive (highest K% in baseball). They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Jerad Eickhoff, who has pitched well at home throughout his career. You can give a look to the left-handed Brewers’ bats in tournaments, but I will be avoiding their offense in cash games.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 27.2% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (16 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.326	0.082	0.411	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,900
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.303	0.132	0.237	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.365	0.208	0.406	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.351	0.173	0.348	C	$3,700	C	$4,100
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.327	0.263	0.214	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,300
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.301	0.162	0.214	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200
7	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.316	0.147	0.447	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,400
8	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.266	0.123	0.186	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,000
9	Chase Anderson	RIGHT	0.066	0.000	0.240	P	$6,100	P	$8,300
	Team Averages	—	0.291	0.143	0.300	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

The Phillies are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching, but they have a respectable team total of 4.06 runs tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Chase Anderson, who is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .346 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Phillies’ lineup offers some nice value plays in this matchup.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.287 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.13 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (13 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.358	0.137	0.340	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.288	0.071	0.227	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,900
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.186	0.304	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,400
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.274	0.292	0.242	1B	$2,000	1B	$4,500
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.275	0.125	0.384	C	$2,500	C	$2,700
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.297	0.124	0.331	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.326	0.145	0.335	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300
8	David Lough	LEFT	0.255	0.107	0.327	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,300
9	Jerad Eickhoff	RIGHT	0.184	0.038	0.000	P	$7,000	P	$8,600
	Team Averages	—	0.288	0.136	0.277	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 2nd

San Francisco at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo

Stackability – NONE

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – NONE

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Baez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Hyun Soo Kim

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – NONE

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