MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-06 02:02:05

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Philadelphia at St. Louis – 1:45 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					St. Louis
			Jerad Eickhoff					Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -180					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.356	5	19.4%	7.5%	SP vs. Left	0.260	2	23.2%	4.2%
SP vs. Right	0.219	3	29.4%	3.5%	SP vs. Right	0.253	5	19.9%	7.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jerad Eickhoff
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,000	Salary:	$7,600
				FPPG:	31.4	FPPG:	17.5
				Pitcher Rating:	64.0	Pitcher Rank:	10
2016	5	3.12	25.2%	3.9%	42.5%	32.6%	16
2015	8	3.56	24.1%	6.4%	37.9%	36.2%	11

Eickhoff is proving that he is the real deal. In his first five starts of 2016, he has a 3.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.2% and a walk rate of 3.9%. He doesn’t have an overwhelming fastball, but he has a wicked curve ball. He is generating a swinging strike rate over 10%, which is great when you have good command. He draws what may be his toughest matchup to date today against the Cardinals. Over the last two seasons, St. Louis is ranked fifth in team wOBA and tenth in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Eickhoff is strictly a GPP play as a large underdog on the road.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jaime Garcia
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,400	Salary:	$9,700
				FPPG:	34.4	FPPG:	20.3
				Pitcher Rating:	86.6	Pitcher Rank:	2
2016	5	3.42	26.9%	10.8%	57.5%	23.8%	30
2015	20	3.39	19.0%	5.9%	61.2%	27.1%	17

I wish Garcia was pitching in the later slate because the only way to get exposure to him is by playing in the early-only or the all-day slate. His command has been a bit off this season, but he has more than made up for it with a 3.42 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 26.9%. He produces an elite ground ball rate and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. Not only do the Phillies have the highest strikeout rate of any team against left-handed pitching, but he gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. I have Garcia ranked as the second best pitching option overall today.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Phillies Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.303 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.122 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.21 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.04 (21 of 22)

The Phillies are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball against left-handed pitching. Over the last two seasons, they are ranked 23rd in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO. They come into today’s game with the second lowest team total on the board. Since the start of the 2015 season, Jaime Garcia has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.332	0.092	0.396	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,000
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.254	0.034	0.276	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,600
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.355	0.258	0.310	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
4	Darin Ruf	RIGHT	0.445	0.271	0.188	1B	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,500
5	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.409	0.246	0.404	C	$3,000	C	$3,400
6	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.319	0.065	0.294	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,600
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.118	0.000	0.126	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200
8	Jerad Eickhoff	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.303	P	$7,000	P	$7,600
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.238	0.125	0.196	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.274	0.121	0.277	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis

Cardinals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.148 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.64 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.96 (13 of 22)

The Cardinals draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Jerad Eickhoff. While he has shown elite strikeout potential, he has allowed a .356 wOBA to left-handed hitters in his first 13 major league starts. Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, and Brandon Moss all have a .175+ ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.385	0.243	0.342	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,000
2	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.346	0.180	0.371	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.357	0.167	0.346	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
4	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.318	0.179	0.351	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,900
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.312	0.098	0.362	C	$3,000	C	$3,100
6	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.363	0.265	0.285	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
7	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.463	0.302	0.462	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,200
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.327	0.138	0.272	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,400
9	Jaime Garcia	LEFT	0.120	0.000	0.379	P	$8,400	P	$9,700
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.175	0.352	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Brandon Moss

Stackability – NONE

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Cleveland
			Michael Fulmer					Trevor Bauer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -125					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.354	0	10.0%	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.322	14	21.9%	12.1%
SP vs. Right	0.286	0	23.1%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.314	11	24.3%	9.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Michael Fulmer
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,400	Salary:	$6,500
				FPPG:	33.0	FPPG:	14.5
				Pitcher Rating:	62.1	Pitcher Rank:	11
2016	1	3.30	17.4%	4.4%	55.6%	27.8%	24

Fulmer is making his second career major league start. He gave up two runs and struck out four batters in five innings against the Twins in his debut. Fulmer has really pitched well in the minor leagues, but I will wait for the right matchup to target him in DFS. The Indians are a very capable offense against right-handed pitching and Vegas has Fulmer listed as an underdog in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Trevor Bauer
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,800	Salary:	$7,100
				FPPG:	12.1	FPPG:	5.8
				Pitcher Rating:	65.0	Pitcher Rank:	9
2016	1	3.49	25.4%	9.9%	41.9%	38.6%	25
2015	30	4.20	22.9%	10.6%	39.2%	31.0%	13

Bauer started the season in the bullpen, but made his first start last week against the Phillies. He was only able to last four innings, throwing 78 pitches. The Indians will likely stretch him out a bit more tonight, but chances are he won’t throw more than 90 pitches or so. Add in the fact that he is facing the Tigers and Bauer becomes an easy pitcher to avoid in all league formats. Bauer has not fared well against right-handed hitters in his career and the Tigers’ lineup is full of them.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Tigers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.54 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.10 (11 of 22)

The Tigers are ranked 11th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. While Progressive Field isn’t exactly a hitter’s park, the Tigers still have a favorable matchup against Trevor Bauer. Over the last two seasons, Bauer has given up 25 home runs. He has also allowed a .314+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.331	0.131	0.357	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,500
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.358	0.228	0.322	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.399	0.193	0.339	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,600
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.292	0.149	0.433	C	$3,700	1B	$4,100
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.350	0.210	0.272	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,600
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.306	0.154	0.411	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,700
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.263	0.082	0.144	C	$2,100	C	$2,700
8	Anthony Gose	LEFT	0.313	0.125	0.283	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.288	0.050	0.282	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.147	0.316	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland

Indians Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.148 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.29 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.40 (8 of 22)

The Indians draw an interesting matchup tonight against Michael Fulmer, who is only making his second career start. Fulmer is a right-handed pitcher, so I will be looking to target the left-handed bats in this lineup. Over the last two seasons, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Michael Brantley all have a .165+ ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.342	0.211	0.358	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,400
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.386	0.166	0.312	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,600
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.338	0.145	0.349	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,200
4	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.373	0.176	0.156	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600
5	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.274	0.145	0.305	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,100
6	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.286	0.181	0.249	C	$2,600	C	$3,700
7	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.287	0.133	0.228	OF	$2,200	3B/OF	$3,100
8	Juan Uribe	RIGHT	0.299	0.133	0.274	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,900
9	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.315	0.102	0.325	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.155	0.284	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Yankees					Baltimore
			Masahiro Tanaka					Kevin Gausman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -110					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.290	14	23.7%	4.2%	SP vs. Left	0.276	5	25.4%	7.3%
SP vs. Right	0.273	13	21.9%	4.8%	SP vs. Right	0.348	13	18.5%	5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Masahiro Tanaka
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$9,400	Salary:	$9,300
				FPPG:	32.0	FPPG:	18.4
				Pitcher Rating:	72.9	Pitcher Rank:	4
2016	5	3.03	22.6%	4.8%	59.6%	28.1%	19
2015	24	3.36	22.8%	4.4%	47.0%	31.1%	25

Despite concerns about his elbow, Tanaka has pitched well this season. In his first five starts, he has a 3.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.6%. He doesn’t walk many batters and he is producing a much higher ground ball rate this season. While his matchup against the Orioles looks tough on paper, they are ranked 19th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Tanaka offers nice upside in this matchup, but he is far from a safe play. I see him as more of a GPP play than a cash game target tonight.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Kevin Gausman
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,500	Salary:	$6,900
				FPPG:	27.0	FPPG:	16.1
				Pitcher Rating:	71.6	Pitcher Rank:	5
2016	2	3.62	22.7%	6.8%	50.0%	26.7%	11
2015	17	3.69	21.9%	6.2%	44.4%	27.4%	12

Gausman pitched well last season and he is off to a nice start in 2016. In his first two starts, he has a 3.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7%. He produces a lot of ground ball outs and he doesn’t walk too many batters. I love his price point tonight (under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings), but the matchup makes me a bit hesitant. Over the last two seasons, the Yankees are ranked in the top half of the majors in team ISO, team wOBA, and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Given the lack of options at pitcher tonight, Gausman is worth a look in tournaments and as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Yankees Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.322 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.56 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.69 (19 of 22)

The Yankees may hit right-handed pitching well as a team, but their offense has been ice cold to start the season. They are ranked 25th in runs scored per game and they come into tonight’s contest with the fourth lowest team total on the board. To make matters worse, Kevin Gausman has been a reverse-splits pitcher in his career, holding left-handed hitters to a .276 wOBA. It’s not that the Yankees’ offense can’t succeed here, but there are more exploitable matchups.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.294	0.101	0.318	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.327	0.148	0.333	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.350	0.194	0.304	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600
4	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.385	0.310	0.325	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,100
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.332	0.205	0.361	C	$3,000	C	$3,700
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.290	0.126	0.335	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,400
7	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.282	0.118	0.098	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,600
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.304	0.123	0.253	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,000
9	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.295	0.095	0.200	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.158	0.281	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore

Orioles Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.35 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.81 (16 of 22)

The Orioles may be tiny favorites tonight, but I like their offense even less than the Yankees. They draw an awful matchup against Masahiro Tanaka, who has an above-average strikeout rate. He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA. The one plus in this matchup is that Tanaka has allowed 27 home runs in his last 29 starts.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.258	0.068	0.296	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,900
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.397	0.251	0.457	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,300
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.334	0.198	0.265	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.407	0.345	0.345	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.328	0.160	0.418	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,600
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.316	0.141	0.266	C	$2,300	C	$2,900
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.335	0.229	0.294	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.354	0.251	0.295	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,100
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.278	0.152	0.209	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.334	0.199	0.316	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Toronto
			Derek Holland					J.A. Happ
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -165					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.268	1	22.7%	7.6%	SP vs. Left	0.293	2	25.7%	5.5%
SP vs. Right	0.338	12	14.9%	6.8%	SP vs. Right	0.312	18	18.4%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Derek Holland
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,600	Salary:	$8,600
				FPPG:	30.6	FPPG:	15.9
				Pitcher Rating:	31.7	Pitcher Rank:	22
2016	5	4.77	15.5%	6.9%	33.3%	32.2%	27
2015	10	4.43	16.7%	6.9%	41.9%	34.6%	3

Holland has not looked the same in the last few seasons. In five starts this year, he has a 4.77 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 15.5%. Even though the Jays have struggled against left-handed pitching this season, they still have the highest team wOBA and team ISO against southpaws over the course of the last two years. Holland is a huge underdog on the road against a sleeping giant that is the Blue Jays’ offense. There is more risk than potential reward here.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
J.A. Happ
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,800	Salary:	$7,500
				FPPG:	32.8	FPPG:	15.9
				Pitcher Rating:	68.1	Pitcher Rank:	7
2016	5	4.62	15.2%	6.8%	38.4%	32.0%	13
2015	31	3.82	21.1%	6.3%	41.6%	31.2%	18

Happ isn’t usually a pitcher that piques my interest, but he is at least worth a look tonight. There aren’t many mid to low salaried pitchers in this slate and he checks in as one of the largest favorites on the board. He hasn’t been sharp this season, but he did have a strikeout rate over 21% in his 31 starts last season. The Rangers are a middle-of-the-pack offense against left-handed pitching. Happ is far from a safe play, but he is worth a look in tournaments and as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Rangers Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.319 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.161 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.21 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (14 of 22)

The Rangers see a ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre, but they still have the ninth lowest team total on the board tonight. Even with the low total, I still like a few of the Rangers’ bats tonight. Over the last two seasons, J.A. Happ has allowed a .312 wOBA and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters. Adrian Beltre, Ian Desmond, and Ryan Rua are all right-handed bats that have at least a .200 ISO against southpaws.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.339	0.184	0.343	2B	$3,900	2B	$3,700
2	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.257	0.036	0.364	OF	$3,300	OF	$2,900
3	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.392	0.224	0.333	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,900
4	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.303	0.148	0.242	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,300
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.343	0.210	0.295	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900
6	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.334	0.149	0.317	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,200
7	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.328	0.224	0.288	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,600
8	Bryan Holaday	RIGHT	0.318	0.143	0.198	C	$2,000	C	$2,000
9	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.319	0.107	0.284	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.158	0.296	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

Blue Jays Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.354 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.186 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.90 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.63 (1 of 22)

Once again, the Blue Jays have the highest run total on the board. They have let us down time and time again this season, but you have to like the matchup against the struggling Derek Holland at home. Over the last two seasons, Holland has allowed a .338 wOBA and 12 home runs to right-handed hitters. As long as the Blue Jays don’t beat themselves (by striking out), they should be in for a nice offensive outing.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.469	0.393	0.395	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.459	0.369	0.424	3B	$4,600	3B	$5,000
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.356	0.214	0.360	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,900
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.359	0.217	0.309	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,500
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.345	0.161	0.262	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,800
6	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.308	0.235	0.381	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,200
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.369	0.202	0.201	C	$2,200	C	$3,400
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.300	0.092	0.319	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.353	0.208	0.332	SS	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.369	0.232	0.331	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Arizona at Miami – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Miami
			Robbie Ray					Adam Conley
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -140					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.288	2	23.4%	5.9%	SP vs. Left	0.380	1	17.9%	13.4%
SP vs. Right	0.340	11	21.5%	11.0%	SP vs. Right	0.297	9	23.2%	7.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Robbie Ray
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,300	Salary:	$7,800
				FPPG:	25.4	FPPG:	12.0
				Pitcher Rating:	60.6	Pitcher Rank:	12
2016	5	4.43	22.9%	12.7%	38.9%	29.7%	18
2015	23	4.05	21.8%	9.0%	43.3%	35.0%	9

Ray is a lot like his teammate, Rubby De La Rosa, the difference is that he is a left-handed pitcher that can’t seem to get right-handed hitters out. They both have nice strikeout upside, but they are both risky fantasy options. If you take a look at the Marlins projected lineup below, they have six batters that all have a .330+ wOBA against left-handed pitching. Ray is cheap, but I’d rather target the other southpaw pitching in this game.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Adam Conley
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,800	Salary:	$6,600
				FPPG:	28.8	FPPG:	15.8
				Pitcher Rating:	65.2	Pitcher Rank:	8
2016	5	3.92	25.5%	10.9%	41.2%	34.3%	11
2015	11	3.98	21.0%	7.5%	40.6%	21.7%	16

Conley has posted a SIERA under 4.00 and a strikeout rate above 21% in each of the last two seasons. His matchup against the Diamondbacks is of the boom or bust nature. While they have four hitters that mash left-handed pitching, the rest of their lineup really struggles against southpaws. Conley is listed as a small favorite at home and he is one of the best value pitching options in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Diamondbacks Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.319 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.151 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.77 (17 of 22)

The Diamondbacks may have the sixth lowest team total on the board tonight, as they square off against Adam Conley in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Conley has been tough on right-handed hitters in his career, but the sample size is still too small to call him a reverse-splits pitcher. The good news for the Diamondbacks is that Brandon Drury, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas, and Welington Castillo all have a .350+ wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.307	0.110	0.386	SS	$3,400	2B	$3,800
2	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.354	0.236	0.404	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,000
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.451	0.252	0.387	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,900
4	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.380	0.234	0.366	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.385	0.311	0.391	C	$3,400	C	$3,500
6	David Peralta	LEFT	0.298	0.145	0.328	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.234	0.103	0.292	2B	$2,100	OF	$2,700
8	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.088	0.000	0.098	P	$6,300	P	$7,800
9	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.326	0.161	0.243	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.172	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Brandon Drury, Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo

Stackability – GPP

Miami

Marlins Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.319 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.132 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.15 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.23 (9 of 22)

The Marlins come into tonight’s game with the ninth highest team total on the board. Even though they are playing in a pitcher’s park, they draw a favorable matchup against Robbie Ray, who has allowed a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.348	0.202	0.354	C	$3,000	C	$3,500
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.368	0.126	0.375	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.334	0.068	0.412	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.470	0.521	0.408	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,400
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.403	0.235	0.327	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000
6	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.312	0.057	0.245	1B	$2,100	1B/3B	$2,500
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.367	0.125	0.254	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,300
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.224	0.069	0.330	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$2,300
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,800	P	$6,600
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.156	0.301	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 5th

Philadelphia at St. Louis – 1:45 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Brandon Moss

Stackability – NONE

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Arizona at Miami – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Brandon Drury, Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo

Stackability – GPP

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Martin Prado, Marcell Ozuna, Chris Johnson

Stackability – GPP

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