MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-06 18:12:00

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Diego at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
San Diego								Cincinnati
			Eric Lauer							Luis Castillo
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-155							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.366	0.342	37.7%	1.33	10.4%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.381	0.373	43.6%	2.07	22.5%	39.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	0.352	39.5%	1.26	20.7%	34.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.306	33.8%	1.04	24.4%	49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Eric Lauer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:				Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:			8 of 8	Salary Rank:			of 8	Salary Rank:		8 of 8

	2018	19	4.79	5.01	18.4%	9.3%	38.4%	39.0%	16.3%	91.1	8.3%
	L14	1	5.74	0.00	9.5%	9.5%	56.3%	31.3%	31.3%	92.2	3.7%

There are only four games on the schedule tonight and with this one starting 25 minutes early, DraftKings decided to leave it off of their main slate. Meanwhile, FanDuel and FantasyDraft have included in in their main slates. Keep that in mind when building your lineups tonight. Lauer has not fared well in his 19 starts this season, posting a 4.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and hard contact rate of 39%. He sees a negative ballpark shift pitching in Cincinnati and he draws a difficult matchup against the Reds, whose projected lineup has a .324 xwOBA and a 19% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. It’s a limited slate, but there are better pitching options tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lauer in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:				Salary:		$17,300
	Salary Rank:			5 of 8	Salary Rank:			of 8	Salary Rank:		2 of 8
	2017	15	3.63	3.12	27.3%	8.9%	58.8%	29.7%	22.1%	97.5	12.7%
	2018	27	3.87	4.83	23.4%	7.1%	44.5%	38.6%	18.2%	95.6	13.9%
	L14	3	2.62	3.24	32.4%	4.4%	47.6%	33.3%	16.7%	96.8	14.7%

Castillo got off to such a slow start this season, but he has turned it on since the All-Star break. If we look at his last three starts, he has a 2.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 4%. This is the Castillo that we all fell in love with last season. He should continue to dominate tonight, as he squares off against the Padres. We all know that they have struggled against right-handed pitching, but just for reference, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .292 with a strikeout rate of 26% against righties. Castillo is an elite play in all formats and I like the spot so much that I plan to play more on FanDuel and FantasyDraft than on DraftKings tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is an elite play in all formats and the top pitcher of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have the least talented offense in the slate and are facing a talented young pitcher that has finally found his groove. As mentioned above, the last three starts from Luis Castillo have been electric. He has an elite strikeout rate and an ability to induce ground balls at a high rate. The two worst outcomes for a hitter (at least from a fantasy perspective) are strikeouts and ground balls and I expect plenty of those tonight in Cincinnati.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.285	0.106	38.4%	8.3%	25.0%	42.4%	SS	$2,700	SS	$6,700
2	Luis Urias	RIGHT	0.308	0.000	28.6%	11.1%	5.6%	84.6%	2B	$2,800	2B	$7,300
3	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.345	0.278	46.4%	5.2%	28.1%	40.6%	OF	$3,100	RF	$8,700
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.318	0.143	36.1%	9.1%	23.7%	59.3%	1B	$3,000	1B	$6,600
5	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.360	0.177	53.5%	5.2%	31.0%	46.5%	3B	$3,300	IF/OF	$8,100
6	Franmil Reyes	RIGHT	0.300	0.215	36.8%	4.4%	31.6%	44.8%	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,900
7	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.288	0.200	35.2%	6.3%	27.0%	35.5%	C	$2,600	C	$6,500
8	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.295	0.133	34.6%	7.1%	16.5%	47.4%	OF	$2,600	CF	$7,500
9	Eric Lauer	LEFT	0.131	0.056	27.3%	4.5%	45.5%	37.5%	P	$6,000	P	$12,900
	Team Averages		0.292	0.145	37.4%	6.8%	26.0%	48.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing at home in a home run-friendly ballpark and they draw an excellent matchup against Eric Lauer. In addition to have a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, Lauer has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. We can pick our poison from the Reds’ offense tonight, but again, they aren’t included in the player pool on DraftKings. In terms of splits against left-handed pitching, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Phillip Ervin, and Scott Schebler all have excellent numbers. I wouldn’t hesitate to play the right-handed bats of Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza at the top of the lineup, who offer stolen base upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.259	0.121	24.1%	7.1%	27.0%	25.9%	OF	$2,700	CF	$6,600
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.294	0.122	24.3%	3.1%	6.1%	38.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$7,500
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.359	0.091	40.2%	14.0%	21.1%	44.9%	1B	$3,700	1B	$8,300
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.464	0.325	56.2%	14.4%	20.1%	36.0%	3B	$3,900	3B	$8,400
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.301	0.180	40.2%	5.6%	22.2%	38.3%	2B	$4,100	2B	$9,100
6	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.357	0.211	41.9%	11.4%	18.2%	35.5%	OF	$3,000	RF	$7,300
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.420	0.159	41.3%	5.3%	13.7%	44.0%	OF	$3,300	RF	$7,400
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.332	0.120	36.1%	15.0%	23.0%	58.3%	C	$2,500	C	$6,400
9	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.127	0.000	18.8%	0.0%	20.0%	64.3%	P	$8,200	P	$17,300
	Team Averages		0.324	0.148	35.9%	8.4%	19.0%	42.9%

Elite Plays – Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, Phillip Ervin, Scott Schebler

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Washington
			Kyle Hendricks							Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-110							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.309	0.299	29.5%	1.19	23.5%	43.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.320	29.9%	0.99	23.1%	47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.326	29.3%	1.01	16.9%	49.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.329	37.9%	1.53	34.0%	41.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:		$15,800
	Salary Rank:			3 of 8	Salary Rank:			4 of 8	Salary Rank:		4 of 8
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%	85.8	8.3%
	2018	28	4.06	3.77	19.9%	5.9%	46.9%	29.4%	23.5%	86.8	9.0%
	L14	3	4.52	1.35	15.8%	5.3%	45.8%	18.3%	31.7%	87.1	7.7%

Hendricks has been up and down this season. He got off to a sluggish start, he bounced back for a couple of months, and now he has been struggling a bit (at least in terms of his advanced statistics). In his last three starts, he has a 4.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. The Nationals aren’t going to make the playoffs, but they are still a formidable opponent for a right-handed pitcher. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average xwOBA of .343 with a strikeout rate of only 19% against righties.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks has limited upside and a low floor in this matchup. He’s an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,600	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:		$17,000
	Salary Rank:			2 of 8	Salary Rank:			2 of 8	Salary Rank:		3 of 8
	2017	28	3.37	2.52	29.1%	6.7%	46.8%	27.3%	21.4%	95.6	13.0%
	2018	17	3.27	4.09	28.2%	6.4%	44.9%	33.3%	18.5%	95.0	11.8%
	L14	3	3.78	5.06	25.0%	8.8%	52.3%	26.7%	20.0%	93.5	12.3%

If you are playing on DraftKings, the difficult choice tonight is between Strasburg and Greinke as your SP1. Strasburg hasn’t been great since returning from the DL, but the advanced numbers look better than his ERA. In those three starts, he has a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has pitched well against the Cubs in the past, but this is far from a great matchup. While there are certainly some strikeouts in this offense, their projected lineup boasts a .332 xwOBA and a .170 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I have no issues with Strasburg tonight, but prefer Greinke straight up, especially if he’s going to be lower owned.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw a difficult matchup against Stephen Strasburg and they are facing him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Even in a three-game slate (or four depending on the site), nobody will target this offense. If Strasburg is going to be highly owned and we are looking for some leverage on the field, why not play a Cubs’ batter or two? Daniel Murphy gets a chance at revenge against his former team and he seems to be heating up right in time for the playoffs. Throughout his career, Strasburg has had a slight reverse-split, which brings Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Willson Contreras into play as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.389	0.181	27.8%	6.3%	8.4%	34.6%	2B	$3,900	1B/2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.336	0.272	36.5%	3.4%	26.6%	46.3%	SS	$4,200	2B/SS	$4,800	2B	$9,200
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.404	0.224	35.7%	12.1%	9.9%	37.5%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,800	1B	$8,600
4	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.355	0.143	30.0%	11.0%	20.3%	39.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.362	0.177	35.4%	12.8%	13.4%	44.5%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,400
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.298	0.138	29.1%	7.9%	20.9%	53.2%	C	$2,800	C	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,700
7	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.354	0.197	41.3%	16.8%	35.4%	37.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,200
8	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.112	0.024	13.0%	2.2%	47.8%	65.0%	P	$9,000	P	$7,700	P	$15,800
9	David Bote	RIGHT	0.375	0.176	36.4%	7.9%	25.7%	54.5%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.332	0.170	31.7%	8.9%	23.2%	45.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals have the better matchup of the two offenses in this game, but are barely favored. Typically, when we see a line that looks a little fishy, Vegas has it right. This only makes me like Stephen Strasburg a little less and the Cubs’ offense a little more. As far as the Nationals, their matchup against Kyle Hendricks is mediocre. He has allowed a .326 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season, which brings Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman into play. The left-handed bats of Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto are also viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.369	0.136	36.5%	8.8%	15.9%	44.9%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,200
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.316	0.140	30.3%	7.9%	20.0%	52.1%	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,100	IF/OF	$9,800
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.390	0.270	42.3%	17.0%	25.1%	36.6%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,200	RF	$9,600
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.381	0.196	35.8%	8.2%	13.7%	36.3%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,500	3B	$9,200
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.383	0.212	35.9%	18.3%	19.3%	50.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,900	LF	$8,700
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.388	0.216	40.3%	6.8%	18.6%	48.8%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,300
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.291	0.126	21.2%	7.2%	15.9%	42.4%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
8	Spencer Kieboom	RIGHT	0.296	0.057	30.8%	12.2%	23.2%	38.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,700
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.274	0.000	23.1%	3.1%	15.6%	71.4%	P	$9,600	P	$8,600	P	$17,000
	Team Averages		0.343	0.150	32.9%	9.9%	18.6%	46.8%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP), Anthony Rendon (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Anthony Rendon (Cash), Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Toronto
			Shane Bieber							Sam Gaviglio
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-140							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.398	0.383	51.9%	1.27	25.4%	32.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.372	38.9%	1.47	15.0%	43.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	0.276	38.3%	0.85	22.6%	53.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.311	30.5%	1.57	25.3%	52.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Shane Bieber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:			4 of 8	Salary Rank:			3 of 8	Salary Rank:		5 of 8

	2018	15	3.48	4.66	24.1%	4.2%	43.4%	45.1%	9.3%	92.8	11.3%
	L14	3	3.06	5.82	23.9%	0.0%	41.2%	56.9%	7.8%	93.3	12.2%

Bieber has been quite unlucky this season. A .368 BABIP (league average is close to .300) has led to a 4.66 ERA, even though his advanced numbers are solid. He currently owns a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 4%. We should expect some positive regression moving forward, perhaps as early as tonight. His biggest issue this season has been left-handed hitters, but he has held righties to a .276 xwOBA on a 54% ground ball rate. He’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against the Blue Jays and should fly under the radar in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: I may be in the minority here, but I’m tempted to start my DraftKings lineups with Greinke and Bieber.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sam Gaviglio
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:			7 of 8	Salary Rank:			6 of 8	Salary Rank:		7 of 8
	2017	13	4.96	4.36	15.7%	8.3%	49.4%	31.5%	15.7%	88.6	7.1%
	2018	19	4.07	5.02	20.8%	7.0%	48.2%	34.5%	16.8%	88.0	9.2%
	L14	2	3.85	4.26	17.0%	5.7%	61.5%	24.4%	19.5%	87.4	10.3%

The strategy with Gaviglio is very simple. When he’s facing a right-handed heavy offense that strikes out at a high rate, fire him up as a cheap SP2. When he’s not, feel free to target hitters against him. He draws an awful matchup tonight against the Indians. They have a left-handed heavy lineup, they have a high fly-ball rate (which negates Gaviglio’s high ground ball rate), and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any offense in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gaviglio in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they draw a favorable matchup against Sam Gaviglio. While he has been tough on right-handed hitters, he has allowed a .372 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to lefties. Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, and Yonder Alonso are all elite plays at their respective positions, as they all bat from the left side and all boast a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Those are my favorite bats from this lineup, but you can still fire up the likes of Edwin Encarnacion (revenge game), Melky Cabrera, and Jason Kipnis.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.387	0.246	41.7%	9.2%	16.3%	36.5%	SS	$4,800	SS	$5,500	SS	$10,200
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.402	0.183	42.8%	8.8%	8.1%	43.2%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,400
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.411	0.345	38.5%	17.8%	11.7%	32.2%	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,300	IF/OF	$9,400
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.267	43.2%	8.6%	22.7%	39.0%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,400
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.379	0.208	38.8%	9.7%	19.4%	38.5%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,400
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.342	0.142	37.8%	7.9%	12.6%	46.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,700
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.348	0.153	37.7%	10.4%	17.6%	34.9%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,000
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.305	0.149	42.9%	4.1%	28.1%	33.3%	C	$2,900	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.292	0.088	38.6%	4.0%	16.7%	45.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.361	0.198	40.2%	8.9%	17.0%	38.8%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Melky Cabrera, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays have one of the easiest matchups on the board to break down. On the season, Shane Bieber has allowed a .383 xwOBA and a 52% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. It’s been a completely different story against righties, as he has held them to a .276 xwOBA on a 54% ground ball rate. By process of elimination, the only three hitters that stand out in this matchup against Billy McKinney, Justin Smoak, and Kendrys Morales. I’m not too high on Smoak or Morales, but do like McKinney as a cheap value batting leadoff.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy McKinney	LEFT	0.469	0.361	55.6%	11.6%	23.3%	33.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,600
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.325	0.133	33.0%	5.7%	20.1%	54.0%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,400
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.409	0.268	39.7%	16.1%	26.2%	32.4%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,500
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.448	0.250	45.6%	12.2%	19.4%	44.5%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,300
5	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.351	0.270	35.2%	6.3%	22.7%	35.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,300
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.337	0.172	33.7%	3.7%	19.3%	35.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
7	Lourdes Gurriel	RIGHT	0.343	0.174	33.0%	2.4%	22.2%	40.4%	2B	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,500	2B	$6,500
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.347	0.181	33.9%	3.3%	12.8%	41.9%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,400
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.273	0.067	29.2%	10.5%	30.3%	51.7%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
	Team Averages		0.367	0.208	37.7%	8.0%	21.8%	41.1%

Elite Plays – Billy McKinney

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak (GPP), Kendrys Morales (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Arizona
			Anibal Sanchez							Zack Greinke
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-160							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	0.287	27.2%	0.87	25.7%	51.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.316	37.2%	0.81	22.6%	47.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.299	28.7%	1.26	22.4%	40.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.324	43.6%	1.65	26.9%	40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Anibal Sanchez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:			6 of 8	Salary Rank:			5 of 8	Salary Rank:		6 of 8
	2017	17	4.16	6.41	21.6%	6.0%	35.6%	37.4%	16.8%	90.8	9.8%
	2018	19	3.86	2.98	24.0%	7.5%	45.4%	28.0%	23.3%	90.6	9.5%
	L14	3	3.97	2.55	22.2%	6.9%	49.0%	25.5%	27.5%	90.5	9.0%

Sanchez will be everyone’s go-to SP2 tonight on DraftKings. In 19 starts this season, he owns a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and an elite soft contact rate of 23%. While I’m a fan of his skill set and while this is a good ballpark for pitchers, I would much rather play Shane Bieber at lower ownership. The Diamondbacks do have some strikeouts in their offense, but their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .332 with a hard contact rate of 39% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I won’t tell you to fade Sanchez, but I prefer Bieber at a similar price point and lower ownership.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Zack Greinke
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,500	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:		$17,500
	Salary Rank:			1 of 8	Salary Rank:			1 of 8	Salary Rank:		1 of 8
	2017	32	3.48	3.20	26.8%	5.6%	46.8%	35.1%	19.2%	91.0	12.4%
	2018	28	3.46	2.97	24.9%	5.0%	44.0%	40.6%	16.1%	89.6	10.9%
	L14	3	3.33	2.70	22.2%	4.9%	56.1%	43.1%	12.1%	89.5	8.3%

Greinke is my favorite pitcher on the DraftKings slate (that honor belongs to Luis Castillo on the other two sites). He has been tremendous all season, posting a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 5%. He gives up a lot of hard contact, but that’s not a big issue in this ballpark when the roof is closed (which it will be tonight). The Braves are known as a high-contact offense, but their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. Greinke is listed as a large favorite and if we get some run support, it will make the Anibal Sanchez fade pay off in more ways than one.

Quick Breakdown: Give me Greinke over Strasburg tonight and buckle up.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Given the fact that I am playing Zack Greinke over Stephen Strasburg, I will naturally have little to no ownership of the Braves. Greinke has an above-average strikeout rate, excellent control, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season. Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis have all hit right-handed pitching well this season, but I will be avoiding this offense as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.398	0.277	49.1%	7.3%	26.3%	39.3%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,500
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.297	0.132	31.1%	7.0%	12.8%	42.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,100
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.404	0.173	43.2%	12.2%	17.9%	34.9%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.388	0.163	41.1%	10.3%	9.2%	40.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
5	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.313	0.165	36.4%	10.8%	20.6%	47.1%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,300
6	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.300	0.187	34.5%	5.2%	18.1%	37.0%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,400
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.319	0.073	47.7%	7.1%	24.4%	40.4%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.284	0.168	34.8%	6.7%	23.4%	42.6%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,300
9	Anibal Sanchez	RIGHT	0.120	0.000	7.7%	4.0%	44.0%	62.5%	P	$7,900	P	$7,500	P	$14,700
	Team Averages		0.314	0.149	36.2%	7.8%	21.9%	43.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are a sneaky offense to target tonight and one way to gain leverage on the field. With Anibal Sanchez soaking up a lot of ownership on DraftKings, people aren’t going to play hitters against one of their starting pitchers. There isn’t a lot that stands out when we look at his splits. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. We are basically banking on the talent of the Diamondbacks’ offense here. A.J. Pollock, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Descalso all boast a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.324	0.110	38.4%	4.1%	14.1%	55.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
2	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.364	0.215	47.3%	6.7%	22.3%	41.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,400
3	David Peralta	LEFT	0.390	0.260	51.3%	8.2%	18.4%	48.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,100
4	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.391	0.240	46.6%	12.1%	27.1%	39.3%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,000	1B	$9,600
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.352	0.269	39.4%	7.7%	21.7%	28.9%	3B	$3,600	3B/SS	$4,200	3B	$8,300
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.347	0.197	38.8%	16.7%	24.9%	30.0%	2B	$3,000	2B/3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
7	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.300	0.118	29.8%	8.8%	13.6%	52.3%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,300
8	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.264	0.046	35.1%	6.7%	28.6%	36.5%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Zack Greinke	RIGHT	0.254	0.075	28.1%	4.4%	24.4%	50.0%	P	$10,500	P	$9,100	P	$17,500
	Team Averages		0.332	0.170	39.4%	8.4%	21.7%	42.4%

Elite Plays – A.J. Pollock

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Eduardo Escobar, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 6th

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Diego at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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