MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 24th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
 | Drew Pomeranz |  | Yefry Ramirez | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| BOS-135 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.370 | 0.368 | 30.4% | 88.8 | 13.3% | 39.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.353 | 0.304 | 33.3% | 85.4 | 25.0% | 36.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.406 | 0.358 | 36.6% | 89.9 | 22.4% | 38.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.229 | 0.262 | 22.9% | 87.0 | 24.5% | 54.3% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Drew Pomeranz | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $14,000 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 32 | 4.31 | 3.32 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 43.2% | 32.5% | 20.3% | 91.3 | 9.9% | |
| 2018 | 8 | 4.90 | 6.81 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 38.3% | 35.3% | 17.2% | 88.8 | 7.5% | |
What is going on everyone? It is an exciting time of year. NFL preseason isn’t all that far away, the MLB playoffs will start before we know it, and then it’s time for the NBA to kick into gear. Let’s not forget my personal favorite DFS sport (PGA) has another major and then the FedEd Cup Championship. We have a 14-game slate on tap tonight and we’ll start with the Red Sox and Orioles. Pomeranz has been a favorite target of mine over the years because he’s always had an above-average strikeout rate at a discounted price point. While I will be streaming pitchers against the Orioles the rest of the season, I am hesitant to load up on Pomeranz in his first start in nearly two months. He’s been sidelined with a biceps injury. While he did look sharp in his last rehab start, he only threw 69 pitches.
Quick Breakdown: If fully healthy, I would fire up Pomeranz in tournaments. I’m not sure we need to take the risk in a 14-game slate.
| Yefry Ramirez | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $9,900 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 4 | 3.92 | 3.09 | 24.7% | 9.3% | 46.7% | 27.4% | 21.0% | 92.2 | 14.0% | |
| L14 | 2 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 26.2% | 11.9% | 54.2% | 36.0% | 20.0% | 92.5 | 16.1% | |
Ramirez has fared well in his first four major league starts, posting a 3.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has been able to keep the ball on the ground and limit hard contact. However, we are still dealing with a small sample size and he’ll face his toughest test to date, as he squares off against the Red Sox. Camden Yards is generous to right-handed power and there is certainly no shortage of that in the Red Sox offense. Boston’s projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average xwOBA of .388 with a .219 ISO and a strikeout rate of only 19%.
Quick Breakdown: Let’s wait for a better matchup before hopping on the Yefry bandwagon.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox aren’t the top offense of the slate, but they are certainly capable of putting up the most runs. While they are playing on the road, Camden Yards is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the American League. He’s a ground ball pitcher that has shown some strikeout upside, but a lot of that is negated by Boston’s offense that is loaded with high-contact and high fly-ball hitters. This is a very intriguing pivot off of some of the more popular offenses. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland, and Xander Bogaerts all own a .390+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.469 | 92.8 | 0.282 | 45.3% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 32.3% | OF | $4,900 | OF | $6,200 | RF | $11,200 |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.421 | 89.4 | 0.224 | 31.4% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 35.8% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,700 | LF | $10,400 |
| 3 | J.D. Martinez | RIGHT | 0.465 | 93.8 | 0.349 | 48.8% | 10.4% | 21.5% | 45.4% | OF | $4,700 | OF | $5,600 | RF | $10,300 |
| 4 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.431 | 92.5 | 0.232 | 37.9% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 41.2% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,000 |
| 5 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.394 | 91.7 | 0.278 | 39.5% | 6.2% | 16.8% | 47.5% | SS | $4,000 | SS | $5,300 | SS | $9,500 |
| 6 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.326 | 86.9 | 0.104 | 28.5% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 55.4% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/SS | $3,600 | 2B | $7,500 |
| 7 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.333 | 91.9 | 0.201 | 38.0% | 7.7% | 24.6% | 43.2% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,300 |
| 8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.277 | 86.2 | 0.133 | 34.6% | 3.3% | 29.2% | 43.4% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,100 | C | $5,800 |
| 9 | Jackie Bradley | LEFT | 0.378 | 92.7 | 0.165 | 41.6% | 9.6% | 22.0% | 39.4% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,200 |
| Team Averages | 0.388 | 90.9 | 0.219 | 38.4% | 9.2% | 19.4% | 42.6% |
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (GPP), J.D. Martinez (GPP), Mitch Moreland (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (Cash), J.D. Martinez (Cash), Mitch Moreland (Cash), Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts
Stackability – YELLOW
Baltimore
There will only be a handful of occasions the rest of the season where I will be actively targeting the Orioles’ offense. This slate is big enough that I wouldn’t consider the Orioles core targets, but I certainly have some interest given the fact that they are cheap and playing at home against a pitcher that hasn’t been healthy all season. In his eight starts, Drew Pomeranz has allowed a .358 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. As mentioned above, this ballpark favors right-handed power. Danny Valencia is one of the top value plays at any position, as he boasts a .413 xwOBA and a .227 ISO against southpaws. Tim Beckham, Adam Jones, and Mark Trumbo are viable as well if you need cheap options at their respective positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.283 | 84.6 | 0.143 | 34.5% | 8.7% | 28.3% | 39.3% | SS | $2,700 | 3B | $3,500 | SS | $6,400 |
| 2 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.294 | 86.7 | 0.079 | 25.0% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 45.3% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,300 |
| 3 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.320 | 88.0 | 0.074 | 27.3% | 1.8% | 9.0% | 37.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,300 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.338 | 92.4 | 0.171 | 35.9% | 7.8% | 22.1% | 49.1% | OF | $3,200 | 1B/OF | $3,500 | DH | $6,800 |
| 5 | Danny Valencia | RIGHT | 0.413 | 91.0 | 0.227 | 34.9% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 43.4% | OF | $2,500 | 3B/OF | $3,500 | 3B | $6,500 |
| 6 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.291 | 88.2 | 0.120 | 27.3% | 7.6% | 26.1% | 67.5% | OF | $2,600 | 1B/OF | $3,200 | IF/OF | $6,500 |
| 7 | Renato Nunez | RIGHT | 0.305 | 84.6 | 0.158 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 30.4% | 38.5% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B/OF | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 8 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.258 | 82.2 | 0.184 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 30.2% | 33.3% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,100 | RF | $5,600 |
| 9 | Austin Wynns | RIGHT | 0.300 | 85.6 | 0.000 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,700 |
| Team Averages | 0.311 | 87.0 | 0.128 | 26.6% | 6.7% | 22.7% | 43.7% |
Elite Plays – Danny Valencia
Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo
Stackability – YELLOW (if you are in need of a cheap mini-stack)
LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
| LA Dodgers | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
 | Kenta Maeda |  | Aaron Nola | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| LAD-103 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.311 | 0.322 | 39.3% | 88.0 | 25.4% | 39.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.242 | 0.277 | 23.6% | 86.5 | 24.8% | 50.0% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.264 | 0.266 | 35.6% | 85.0 | 33.9% | 39.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.238 | 0.244 | 26.7% | 85.1 | 27.3% | 53.3% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Kenta Maeda | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,500 | Salary: | $11,300 | Salary: | $22,400 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | 3.79 | 4.22 | 25.1% | 6.1% | 38.1% | 28.3% | 20.9% | 91.5 | 12.5% | |
| 2018 | 16 | 3.42 | 3.12 | 29.7% | 8.8% | 39.4% | 37.6% | 16.3% | 91.8 | 14.2% | |
| L14 | 1 | 1.68 | 1.50 | 43.5% | 4.4% | 45.5% | 45.5% | 9.1% | 91.4 | 18.2% | |
This game features two of the most talented pitchers that are taking the mound tonight. Maeda has had a tremendous season for the Dodgers, posting a 3.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. If you pull up his game log, he has scored at least 25 fantasy points (DK scoring) in four of his last five starts. He has plenty of upside tonight against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .308 and a strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching. The only concern is that Maeda is a fly-ball pitcher that is playing in a home run-friendly ballpark. His price point is suboptimal as well, but that should help keep ownership down in tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: I plan to load up on the mid-range pitching options tonight, but Maeda is right there with Paxton as my highest projected pitcher for this slate.
| Aaron Nola | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $11,000 | Salary: | $12,000 | Salary: | $23,100 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | 3.60 | 3.54 | 26.6% | 7.1% | 49.8% | 29.7% | 21.6% | 92.0 | 10.8% | |
| 2018 | 20 | 3.43 | 2.30 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 51.7% | 25.2% | 21.0% | 92.3 | 11.5% | |
| L14 | 2 | 2.41 | 1.38 | 31.9% | 4.3% | 63.3% | 20.0% | 23.3% | 92.8 | 11.1% | |
Nola is one of my favorite young pitchers in baseball. He does everything well, as you can see from all the green and blue boxes in his pitching table above. In 20 starts this season, he has a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 52%. He’s certainly a perfect fit for this ballpark, as fly balls tend to leave the park more often than in other stadiums. The issue tonight is two-fold. First, a matchup against the Dodgers is scary in a 14-game slate. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .349 with a .224 ISO. The other concern is his price point. Despite the tough matchup, Nola isn’t priced at any sort of a discount tonight — $11,000 on FanDuel and $12,000 on DraftKings.
Quick Breakdown: It wouldn’t surprise me to see Nola pitch well tonight, but I will not be paying this price in this matchup.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers teed off against Zach Eflin last night in this home run-friendly ballpark, but have a much tougher draw tonight against Aaron Nola. In addition to having above-average ground ball and strikeout rates, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. The good news for Dodgers’ backers is that every batter in their projected lineup has an above-average fly-ball rate against right-handed pitching. If they can get the ball in the air in this park, they could be a sneaky offense to target for one-offs. Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, and Yasmani Grandal are all on my radar for tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.379 | 91.5 | 0.302 | 44.2% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 38.4% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,700 |
| 2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.396 | 92.3 | 0.259 | 37.0% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 38.7% | SS | $4,300 | SS | $4,500 | 3B | $9,300 |
| 3 | Max Muncy | LEFT | 0.429 | 91.7 | 0.328 | 45.5% | 18.5% | 25.0% | 35.8% | 3B | $3,800 | 1B/3B | $4,400 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
| 4 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.393 | 89.8 | 0.245 | 40.6% | 11.5% | 19.1% | 39.4% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,900 | C | $7,400 |
| 5 | Matt Kemp | RIGHT | 0.366 | 89.4 | 0.172 | 41.1% | 5.5% | 22.3% | 40.5% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,500 |
| 6 | Cody Bellinger | LEFT | 0.346 | 90.4 | 0.245 | 38.2% | 10.2% | 22.6% | 41.2% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B/OF | $3,900 | 1B | $7,300 |
| 7 | Chris Taylor | RIGHT | 0.326 | 88.3 | 0.184 | 35.2% | 7.2% | 31.3% | 32.3% | OF | $3,400 | OF/SS | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
| 8 | Kike Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.343 | 87.3 | 0.279 | 31.7% | 11.3% | 20.7% | 31.3% | OF | $3,400 | OF/SS | $3,200 | IF/OF | $6,700 |
| 9 | Kenta Maeda | RIGHT | 0.162 | 65.9 | 0.000 | 8.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 37.5% | P | $9,500 | P | $11,300 | P | $22,400 |
| Team Averages | 0.349 | 87.4 | 0.224 | 35.8% | 9.7% | 21.2% | 37.2% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Joc Pederson (GPP), Max Muncy (GPP), Yasmani Grandal (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Philadelphia
The Phillies were able to knock Ross Stripling around a bit last night, largely thanks to a three-run home run by Rhys Hoskins. This is an offense that I like to target when at home, but preferably when facing a low-strikeout pitcher. They have one of the highest k-rates of any offense in baseball, which is obviously the least productive out in baseball. A matchup against Kenta Maeda isn’t going to help, as he boasts a 30% strikeout rate with a 14.2% swinging strike rate. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA. Outside of a Nick Williams value play, there isn’t a lot to like here.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.323 | 83.2 | 0.132 | 24.5% | 13.8% | 21.6% | 42.6% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 2 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.304 | 86.8 | 0.196 | 27.2% | 6.7% | 21.3% | 41.4% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 3 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.374 | 88.6 | 0.242 | 35.0% | 11.2% | 26.4% | 27.8% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
| 4 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.383 | 89.0 | 0.184 | 35.4% | 21.3% | 14.8% | 37.6% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,500 |
| 5 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.378 | 89.4 | 0.210 | 35.4% | 9.6% | 23.3% | 46.5% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,300 | RF | $6,400 |
| 6 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.326 | 88.8 | 0.182 | 24.2% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 54.5% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,700 |
| 7 | Scott Kingery | RIGHT | 0.308 | 85.5 | 0.107 | 25.0% | 5.0% | 22.5% | 39.5% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $5,600 |
| 8 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.259 | 91.5 | 0.142 | 30.0% | 3.3% | 38.1% | 55.0% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,700 |
| 9 | Aaron Nola | RIGHT | 0.113 | 65.3 | 0.036 | 5.9% | 3.0% | 45.5% | 70.0% | P | $11,000 | P | $12,000 | P | $23,100 |
| Team Averages | 0.308 | 85.3 | 0.159 | 27.0% | 8.9% | 25.3% | 46.1% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Nick Williams (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
Minnesota at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
| Minnesota | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
 | Jose Berrios |  | Ryan Borucki | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| TOR-108 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.272 | 0.309 | 36.7% | 86.9 | 25.2% | 37.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.301 | 0.257 | 27.8% | 86.6 | 20.8% | 55.6% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.292 | 0.298 | 32.1% | 86.4 | 24.6% | 42.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.334 | 0.387 | 36.4% | 90.9 | 20.0% | 43.6% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jose Berrios | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $10,500 | Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $19,600 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | 4.29 | 3.89 | 22.6% | 7.8% | 39.0% | 27.9% | 20.4% | 93.5 | 9.4% | |
| 2018 | 20 | 3.61 | 3.68 | 24.9% | 5.7% | 40.1% | 34.5% | 20.3% | 93.1 | 11.3% | |
| L14 | 2 | 3.54 | 4.85 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 45.7% | 44.4% | 19.4% | 93.0 | 10.7% | |
Berrios is one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball, but he hasn’t been able to sustain success on the road. In his 12 home starts, he is averaging over 24 fantasy points per game (DK scoring) with a strikeout rate of 30%. In his eight road starts, he is averaging 13 fantasy points per game with a strikeout rate of only 17%. It’s safe to say that he has some of the most drastic home/road splits in baseball. Add in the fact that the Blue Jays are a much better offense at home than they are on the road and he has the splits working against him in two different ways.
Quick Breakdown: I’m a fan of Berrios, but will be avoiding him in all formats tonight.
| Ryan Borucki | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 4 | 4.44 | 3.52 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 46.6% | 34.3% | 11.0% | 91.9 | 7.9% | |
| L14 | 1 | 5.35 | 12.00 | 21.7% | 17.4% | 57.1% | 50.0% | 7.1% | 92.0 | 3.7% | |
Borucki has had a little bit of success in his first four major league starts, posting a 4.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a ground ball rate of 47%. Unfortunately, I expect his strikeout rate to regress as we get a larger sample size. In his 13 Triple-A starts earlier this season, he had a k-rate of only 18%. His swinging strike rate in the majors is well below average, so we should temper our expectations moving forward. I know that a matchup against the Twins is enticing, but there are better value pitchers available tonight.
Quick Breakdown: I don’t love Borucki’s low strikeout rate in the minors. I will be avoiding him in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto (especially on the home run side of things), but have been atrocious against left-handed pitching this season. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .286 with a .116 ISO. Those numbers are nothing short of terrible and they are certainly surprising given the fact that Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, and Robbie Grossman have all hit southpaws well throughout their respective careers. Despite their struggles this season, they are still my three favorite hitters in this lineup. Unfortunately, they are deep tournament plays tonight against Ryan Borucki.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.345 | 87.8 | 0.085 | 42.1% | 9.9% | 17.3% | 56.1% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 2 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.285 | 85.3 | 0.156 | 35.0% | 3.7% | 21.6% | 41.4% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,500 | LF | $9,000 |
| 3 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.283 | 84.9 | 0.138 | 27.9% | 14.6% | 18.4% | 44.1% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $8,200 |
| 4 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.312 | 87.7 | 0.112 | 36.1% | 9.8% | 21.3% | 39.8% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B/SS | $4,000 | 3B | $7,200 |
| 5 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.280 | 85.4 | 0.134 | 26.6% | 9.8% | 20.7% | 39.1% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,300 |
| 6 | Mitch Garver | RIGHT | 0.283 | 85.1 | 0.035 | 27.9% | 12.3% | 21.5% | 39.5% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 7 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.357 | 90.5 | 0.237 | 39.0% | 10.8% | 19.8% | 35.1% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,300 |
| 8 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.235 | 87.4 | 0.043 | 57.9% | 0.0% | 17.4% | 31.6% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,600 |
| 9 | Bobby Wilson | RIGHT | 0.190 | 83.7 | 0.080 | 33.3% | 10.7% | 25.0% | 50.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,600 | C | $4,800 |
| Team Averages | 0.286 | 86.4 | 0.113 | 36.2% | 9.1% | 20.3% | 41.9% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP), Eduardo Escobar (GPP), Robbie Grossman (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Toronto
The Blue Jays will get overlooked by the masses tonight thanks to a matchup against Jose Berrios. He’s an incredibly talented pitcher, but as mentioned above, he’s been mediocre at best on the road this season. In his eight road starts, he has allowed a .348 wOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. Those are steep declines from his numbers at home. Add in the fact that he’s a fly-ball pitcher that is playing in a home run-friendly ballpark and we should at least have a little interest in the Blue Jays. Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, and Kendrys Morales all bat from the left side and all have an ISO of at least .198 against right-handed pitching this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.342 | 88.1 | 0.198 | 36.1% | 12.7% | 27.9% | 32.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,500 |
| 2 | Teoscar Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.374 | 92.2 | 0.219 | 40.0% | 5.2% | 26.7% | 36.1% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,400 |
| 3 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.401 | 92.2 | 0.263 | 39.0% | 17.5% | 25.3% | 32.2% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,100 |
| 4 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.329 | 88.0 | 0.157 | 31.1% | 7.4% | 16.2% | 42.2% | 3B | $3,000 | 2B/3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,800 |
| 5 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.412 | 93.2 | 0.201 | 44.4% | 11.4% | 21.6% | 43.5% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 6 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.310 | 90.7 | 0.147 | 30.2% | 15.7% | 23.9% | 48.3% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,700 |
| 7 | Dwight Smith | LEFT | 0.338 | 87.6 | 0.294 | 30.0% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 53.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,400 |
| 8 | Lourdes Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.366 | 92.5 | 0.175 | 31.8% | 1.2% | 20.7% | 41.3% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/SS | $3,400 | 2B | $6,700 |
| 9 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.357 | 89.0 | 0.196 | 36.5% | 3.2% | 11.2% | 44.0% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $6,900 |
| Team Averages | 0.359 | 90.4 | 0.206 | 35.5% | 9.4% | 20.7% | 41.5% |
Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson
Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET
| NY Yankees | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
 | Masahiro Tanaka |  | Yonny Chirinos | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYY-180 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.302 | 0.337 | 29.3% | 86.1 | 20.9% | 50.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.296 | 0.372 | 33.3% | 89.3 | 19.1% | 40.9% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.326 | 0.329 | 39.9% | 87.3 | 26.7% | 40.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.326 | 0.331 | 54.6% | 87.8 | 23.1% | 42.4% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Masahiro Tanaka | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $16,900 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 30 | 3.52 | 4.74 | 25.8% | 5.5% | 49.2% | 31.4% | 19.5% | 92.2 | 15.1% | |
| 2018 | 15 | 3.71 | 4.54 | 24.3% | 6.5% | 44.7% | 35.3% | 19.0% | 91.7 | 13.8% | |
| L14 | 2 | 4.03 | 4.22 | 21.3% | 6.4% | 43.8% | 38.2% | 20.6% | 91.4 | 12.7% | |
Pitching is weak at the top tonight, which brings Tanaka into play as a core target in both cash games and tournaments. He’s one of those pitchers that we routinely expect to have a higher ERA than SIERA thanks to a seemingly unsustainable HR/FB rate. Somehow, someway, he has managed to sustain that high HR/FB rate throughout his career. The rest of his numbers are certainly appealing — 24% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, and a 45% ground ball rate. He sees a sizable ballpark boost playing in Tampa Bay and draws one of the best matchups of the slate. The Rays’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .306 with a strikeout rate of 20% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is an elite play in all formats. Just keep it in the park my man.
| Yonny Chirinos | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $9,000 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 4.20 | 3.71 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 41.6% | 42.3% | 11.5% | 93.2 | 10.2% | |
There were some conflicting reports last night, but it appears that Chirinos will draw the start for the Rays. In his five previous starts, he posted a 4.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He’s the team’s 22nd ranked and has shown some strikeout upside in the minors. Unfortunately, that’s not enough of a reason to play him tonight against the Yankees, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .341 with an ISO of .204 against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Chirinos is an unnecessary risk in a 14-game slate.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
The Yankees see a significant ballpark downgrade playing in Tampa Bay, but they are still an intriguing offense given their home run upside. We are dealing with a small sample size (five starts), but Yonny Chirinos has allowed a 42% hard contact rate this season. When it comes to stacking, there are a handful of offenses that I would target before the Yankees, but this lineup is loaded with viable one-off targets. Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Gary Sanchez all boast a .335+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.309 | 87.2 | 0.166 | 29.6% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 51.0% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.403 | 96.2 | 0.272 | 49.1% | 12.6% | 30.7% | 45.1% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $4,900 | RF | $8,700 |
| 3 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.349 | 88.6 | 0.253 | 39.1% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 34.8% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,000 |
| 4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.306 | 91.8 | 0.184 | 33.9% | 7.9% | 33.2% | 52.8% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,700 | RF | $9,100 |
| 5 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.350 | 88.6 | 0.189 | 38.5% | 13.7% | 19.2% | 45.1% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,500 |
| 6 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.337 | 89.7 | 0.215 | 36.2% | 9.4% | 25.6% | 43.8% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,800 | C | $7,200 |
| 7 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.327 | 88.9 | 0.267 | 39.5% | 8.5% | 27.7% | 37.0% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,400 |
| 8 | Miguel Andujar | RIGHT | 0.347 | 89.6 | 0.182 | 36.1% | 4.0% | 17.3% | 50.0% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,500 |
| 9 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.343 | 88.1 | 0.106 | 36.9% | 10.4% | 22.0% | 40.0% | 2B | $2,400 | 1B/2B | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
| Team Averages | 0.341 | 89.9 | 0.204 | 37.7% | 9.7% | 22.4% | 44.4% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Tampa Bay
The Rays were able to knock Luis Severino around last night, but we shouldn’t expect this offense to succeed against quality pitching all that often. The Rays lack talent and they lack depth, so I’ll be going right back to the well with Masahiro Tanaka. The only argument to play anyone from the Rays is that Tanaka allows a lot of home runs. In his last 45 major league starts, he has given up 53 home runs. Jake Bauers is certainly worth a look as a one-off in tournaments, as he boasts a .370 xwOBA and a .243 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.250 | 85.8 | 0.081 | 33.8% | 8.9% | 28.6% | 53.0% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,500 |
| 2 | Matt Duffy | RIGHT | 0.328 | 86.9 | 0.101 | 30.9% | 6.1% | 15.0% | 51.3% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,700 |
| 3 | Jake Bauers | LEFT | 0.370 | 90.7 | 0.243 | 44.3% | 15.0% | 22.0% | 38.0% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $4,000 | 1B | $7,700 |
| 4 | C.J. Cron | RIGHT | 0.349 | 87.2 | 0.220 | 36.1% | 6.1% | 24.9% | 43.3% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,000 |
| 5 | Joey Wendle | LEFT | 0.308 | 89.7 | 0.121 | 35.7% | 5.5% | 20.6% | 47.4% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,500 |
| 6 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.300 | 84.6 | 0.136 | 32.6% | 7.6% | 24.9% | 35.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,700 |
| 7 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.290 | 84.4 | 0.127 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 18.5% | 44.6% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,300 |
| 8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.300 | 85.7 | 0.093 | 36.2% | 4.3% | 17.3% | 38.4% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $5,600 |
| 9 | Jesus Sucre | RIGHT | 0.257 | 83.7 | 0.027 | 25.0% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 37.9% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,400 | C | $4,600 |
| Team Averages | 0.306 | 86.5 | 0.128 | 33.7% | 7.5% | 20.4% | 43.2% |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jake Bauers (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | ||||||||||||||
 | Joe Musgrove |  | Shane Bieber | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| CLE-190 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | aEV | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.374 | 0.323 | 35.1% | 87.8 | 18.5% | 46.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.411 | 0.351 | 51.6% | 91.4 | 23.4% | 40.6% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.284 | 0.286 | 31.8% | 86.5 | 23.9% | 42.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.249 | 0.274 | 38.8% | 87.6 | 22.5% | 55.2% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Joe Musgrove | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,900 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 15 | 4.04 | 4.77 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 44.9% | 30.2% | 20.2% | 92.9 | 11.7% | |
| 2018 | 9 | 4.07 | 4.08 | 21.5% | 6.9% | 44.4% | 33.3% | 20.4% | 93.2 | 10.8% | |
| L14 | 2 | 3.97 | 4.97 | 25.0% | 8.9% | 40.0% | 34.3% | 22.9% | 93.4 | 12.4% | |
Musgrove has had a nearly identical season to 2017. His numbers nearly match across the board with the exception of his ERA (he was a little unlucky last season). In nine starts this year, he has a 4.07 SIRA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 44%. While those are solid numbers for a pitcher at this price point, anyone facing the Indians in Cleveland is an auto-fade in my eyes. I’m not even sure I would play Chris Sale in this matchup. The Indians’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .370 with an ISO over .200 against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Musgrove in all formats.
| Shane Bieber | |||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||||
| Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $16,100 | ||||||
| Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | ||||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | aFV | SwS% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 7 | 3.53 | 3.53 | 23.0% | 4.4% | 48.1% | 45.0% | 9.9% | 92.4 | 11.4% | |
| L14 | 1 | 3.57 | 3.86 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 63.2% | 36.8% | 15.8% | 93.0 | 11.1% | |
The Biebs has flashed some upside this season, posting a 3.53 SIERA with a 23% strikeout rate and a 4% walk rate in his seven major league starts. I’m buying his Kool-Aid in the long run, but don’t love his matchup against the Pirates. They are a high-contact offense with plenty of left-handed power. Bieber has struggled against lefties this season (52% hard contact rate allowed) and this ballpark favors left-handed power. I’m not sure Bieber has the strikeout upside needed in this matchup to overcome any mistakes.
Quick Breakdown: I’m not saying no to Bieber, I’m just saying not right now.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
The Pirates have quietly fared well against right-handed pitching this season. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Cleveland and get to use the DH in this series. As noted above, Shane Bieber has been tough on right-handed hitters and has really struggled against those that bat from the left side of the plate, allowing a .351 xwOBA and a 52% hard contact rate. Corey Dickerson has been the hottest hitter in baseball since the All-Star break, racking up nine hits (four home runs) in only four games. He’s certainly viable here, as are Gregory Polanco and Colin Moran.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.362 | 87.9 | 0.215 | 36.3% | 3.5% | 11.3% | 34.3% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,300 |
| 2 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.329 | 86.5 | 0.200 | 30.3% | 5.7% | 19.6% | 45.5% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,400 | CF | $10,400 |
| 3 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.378 | 90.9 | 0.268 | 36.5% | 12.9% | 22.2% | 34.3% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,600 | RF | $8,900 |
| 4 | Elias Diaz | RIGHT | 0.331 | 89.0 | 0.142 | 31.7% | 6.8% | 15.9% | 51.5% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 | C | $5,900 |
| 5 | Colin Moran | LEFT | 0.370 | 88.5 | 0.153 | 32.3% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 42.0% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,300 |
| 6 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.338 | 88.8 | 0.131 | 30.4% | 10.6% | 16.4% | 50.9% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,000 |
| 7 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.384 | 89.6 | 0.263 | 28.3% | 6.9% | 23.0% | 46.7% | 3B | $2,500 | 1B/3B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 8 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.269 | 82.9 | 0.087 | 27.6% | 4.0% | 16.0% | 37.3% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 9 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.312 | 87.6 | 0.136 | 27.9% | 7.5% | 23.3% | 40.4% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,900 |
| Team Averages | 0.341 | 88.0 | 0.177 | 31.3% | 7.4% | 18.0% | 42.5% |
Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson (GPP), Gregory Polanco (GPP), Colin Moran (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson (Cash), Gregory Polanco (Cash), Colin Moran (Cash)
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Cleveland
The Indians don’t have the best matchup on paper, but this is one of the best offenses in baseball and they are playing at home where they have continued to put up big outing after big outing. On the season, Joe Musgrove has allowed a .323 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, and Yonder Alonso all bat from the left side and all boast a .390+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The problem is that they are priced up across the industry, which makes it tough to stack Cleveland even if we wanted to.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | xwOBA | aEV | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.412 | 89.6 | 0.288 | 42.7% | 10.0% | 17.8% | 35.5% | SS | $4,800 | SS | $5,700 | SS | $10,500 |
| 2 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.415 | 91.2 | 0.205 | 44.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 43.1% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $5,000 | LF | $9,800 |
| 3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.425 | 89.5 | 0.370 | 40.9% | 16.4% | 11.9% | 30.2% | 3B | $5,200 | 3B | $5,900 | IF/OF | $11,400 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.392 | 90.4 | 0.275 | 41.9% | 8.9% | 23.1% | 37.6% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,000 |
| 5 | Yonder Alonso | LEFT | 0.390 | 89.7 | 0.198 | 40.0% | 10.1% | 20.2% | 38.0% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $8,600 |
| 6 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.335 | 90.5 | 0.100 | 34.0% | 5.2% | 12.1% | 44.7% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,800 | LF | $7,500 |
| 7 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.352 | 87.5 | 0.129 | 37.6% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 35.7% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,500 |
| 8 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.283 | 88.1 | 0.151 | 40.9% | 4.5% | 30.3% | 33.9% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,300 |
| 9 | Tyler Naquin | LEFT | 0.326 | 90.0 | 0.101 | 41.2% | 3.8% | 22.8% | 53.5% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,500 |
| Team Averages | 0.370 | 89.6 | 0.202 | 40.4% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 39.1% |
Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso (FD)
Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso (DK), Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis
Stackability – YELLOW
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.