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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-04 03:39:13

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM

Detroit Cleveland
detroitmlb Justin Verlander clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -120 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.267 9 21.4% 6.2% SP vs. Left 0.217 5 19.0% 2.0%
SP vs. Right 0.315 10 22.3% 6.6% SP vs. Right 0.328 10 23.6% 4.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,100 Salary:
FPPG: 30.4 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 64.2 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 3.73 25.0% 8.1% 32.9% 33.7% 26
2015 20 3.95 21.1% 6.0% 34.6% 23.0% 9

We keep seeing these weird start times, which results in a lot of games not being included in the main slates. The Tigers and Indians first pitch is set for 6:10 ET. This game is included in the early-only slate on FanDuel, but DraftKings has left it out altogether. Verlander has pitched well in his first three starts of the season, posting a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. One of those starts came against this same Indians’ team. Verlander checks in as a small underdog and with this game being played in Cleveland, he’s not a pitcher that I am actively targeting tonight.

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,200 Salary:
FPPG: 34.0 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 74.5 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 3 4.09 16.4% 3.0% 41.5% 38.9% 24
2015 10 3.46 22.7% 3.2% 37.5% 33.2% 13

Tomlin’s strikeout rate may look low, but that was largely due to his one bad start against the Twins. We should trust the larger sample size here. In ten starts in 2015, he posted a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate or 22.7%. He doesn’t walk many batters, although he does give up a fairly high hard hit contact rate of around 40%. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Tigers, who are a potent but strikeout happy offense. I’m not looking to target either pitcher in this game, but would give the edge to Tomlin over Verlander.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching. They come into tonight’s game with the 11th lowest team total on the board. They draw a mediocre matchup against Josh Tomlin, who has been very tough on left-handed hitters (.217 wOBA). Tomlin has struggled with right-handed bats though, allowing a .328 wOBA and ten home runs over his last 13 starts.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.331 0.128 0.315 2B $3,700
2 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.362 0.231 0.264 OF $3,300
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.400 0.196 0.349 1B $3,800
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.293 0.152 0.491 C $3,800
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.349 0.211 0.261 OF $3,200
6 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.303 0.156 0.417 3B $3,400
7 Jarrod Saltalamacchia SWITCH 0.332 0.244 0.346 C $2,800
8 Anthony Gose LEFT 0.313 0.126 0.289 OF $2,700
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.290 0.051 0.238 SS $2,400
Team Averages — 0.330 0.166 0.330 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Stackability – NONE

Cleveland

The Indians have a slightly above-average team total tonight at 4.12 runs. They draw a decent matchup against Justin Verlander, who is a reverse-splits pitcher. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .315 wOBA to right-handed hitters compared to a .267 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Carlos Santana doesn’t have a high batting average against Verlander, but he does have seven career home runs against him in only 56 at bats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.341 0.212 0.401 1B $3,400
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.386 0.169 0.268 2B $3,500
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.330 0.134 0.339 SS $3,500
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.375 0.180 0.119 OF $3,200
5 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.270 0.141 0.242 1B $3,000
6 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.285 0.182 0.213 C $2,600
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.287 0.134 0.221 OF $2,200
8 Juan Uribe RIGHT 0.300 0.134 0.333 3B $2,100
9 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.338 0.116 0.371 OF $2,300
Team Averages — 0.324 0.156 0.279 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
cubsmlb Jake Arrieta pittsburghmlb Jon Niese
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -200 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.217 4 28.7% 6.8% SP vs. Left 0.346 5 17.4% 4.7%
SP vs. Right 0.228 8 25.3% 5.0% SP vs. Right 0.340 22 14.5% 7.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $12,100 Salary: $12,100
FPPG: 50.4 FPPG: 30.0
Pitcher Rating: 90.4 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 3.25 24.8% 7.8% 55.8% 20.7% 3
2015 33 2.75 27.1% 5.5% 56.2% 22.1% 17

Arrieta is a monster. I’m convinced that he is not human. He is a massive pitcher that just hulks over his prey. In his first five starts of the season, he has a 3.25 SUERA with a strikeout rate just under 25%. He typically doesn’t walk many batters, yet he still generates a swinging strike rate of 11%. He also produces an elite ground ball rate. He basically checks every box that we are looking for from a pitcher. The fact that he is a -200 favorite on the road against a good Pirates’ ball club goes to show just how great Arrieta is. I have him ranked as my top overall pitcher tonight.

Jon Niese
jon-niese-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,800
FPPG: 23.2 FPPG: 10.3
Pitcher Rating: 46.6 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 4.23 17.6% 7.2% 48.4% 29.0% 6
2015 29 4.27 14.7% 7.1% 54.5% 29.7% 30

After three decent starts to open the season, Niese has allowed at least ten hits and at least four earned runs in each of his last two. His velocity is low and he doesn’t generate a high swinging strike rate. That could pose problems for a Cubs’ offense that makes great contact when they put the ball into play. Niese may be cheap, but the risk greatly outweighs the potential reward tonight, even though the game is at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may not have the highest team total on the board tonight, but this is still a matchup that we can exploit. Over the last two seasons, Jon Niese has allowed a .340+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. He has also given up 27 home runs during that stretch. If you look at the table below, Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist all have a .360+ wOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.379 0.144 0.425 OF $4,200 OF $5,000
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.306 0.087 0.272 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.333 0.201 0.446 3B $4,500 3B/OF $4,600
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.364 0.173 0.463 1B $4,700 1B $4,900
5 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.295 0.101 0.189 OF $2,200 OF $3,900
6 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.395 0.189 0.402 2B $3,300 2B $4,100
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.232 0.124 0.275 SS $3,000 SS $3,200
8 David Ross RIGHT 0.254 0.058 0.430 C $2,400 C $2,400
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.270 0.125 0.351 P $12,100 P $12,100
Team Averages — 0.314 0.134 0.361 — — — —

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo (GPP), Jorge Soler

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw the worst pitching matchup on the schedule tonight. They have the second lowest team total on the board, as they square off against Jake Arrieta at home. Over the last two seasons, Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA – which is ridiculously low. Unless you like your hitters to score zero fantasy points, avoid the Pirates.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso LEFT 0.361 0.176 0.338 1B $3,400 1B $2,700
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.366 0.190 0.322 OF $4,000 OF $3,600
3 David Freese RIGHT 0.328 0.133 0.370 3B $3,000 3B $2,800
4 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.353 0.161 0.355 OF $4,300 OF $3,700
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.336 0.089 0.352 C $3,300 C $2,600
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.338 0.146 0.410 OF $3,400 OF $3,600
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.311 0.107 0.395 2B $3,500 2B $3,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.262 0.070 0.422 SS $3,100 SS $2,500
9 Jon Niese LEFT 0.209 0.022 0.295 P $6,000 P $5,800
Team Averages — 0.318 0.122 0.362 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

NY Yankees Baltimore
nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -120 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.309 3 15.3% 8.4% SP vs. Left 0.308 3 17.6% 9.5%
SP vs. Right 0.350 8 25.3% 5.8% SP vs. Right 0.340 18 16.7% 7.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 12.5 FPPG: 4.3
Pitcher Rating: 59.9 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 4 3.55 13.5% 3.4% 52.7% 31.1% 19
2015 11 3.84 22.0% 8.6% 50.3% 26.3% 25

Severino still has an impressive SIERA, but his strikeout rate has been way down this season. He still has similar velocity (95 MPH fastball), but his swinging strike rate is down. It could be thanks to a small sample size or it could be due to the fact that teams are making adjustments against him at the plate. While the Orioles do strike out at a high clip, they are also a top five offense against right-handed pitching. For now, continue to avoid Severino in all league formats.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,200
FPPG: 28.8 FPPG: 15.5
Pitcher Rating: 43.1 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 3.75 24.2% 8.1% 36.4% 28.8% 12
2015 31 4.69 16.2% 8.6% 43.5% 26.9% 12

Tillman is one of those pitchers that just doesn’t do it for me. His numbers look good so far in his first five starts of the year, but I’m not sure that his swinging strike rate of 11.8% is sustainable. His previous career high was 8.3% back in 2012. Tillman draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees hit right-handed pitching well as a team. They come into tonight’s contest against Chris Tillman with the tenth highest team total on the board. Tillman is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .340 wOBA and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters. Left-handed bats haven’t had as much success against him, but they are still in play in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.289 0.100 0.342 OF $3,100 OF $4,400
2 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.326 0.148 0.265 OF $2,900 OF $4,300
3 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.352 0.198 0.199 OF $2,500 OF $3,800
4 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.385 0.315 0.264 1B $3,000 1B $4,300
5 Alex Rodriguez RIGHT 0.339 0.214 0.411 3B $3,500 1B/3B $4,000
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.331 0.208 0.260 C $2,900 C $3,800
7 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.295 0.128 0.357 2B $3,100 2B $3,500
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.297 0.097 0.180 3B $2,100 3B $3,300
9 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.305 0.125 0.259 SS $2,000 SS $3,100
Team Averages — 0.324 0.170 0.282 — — — —

Elite Plays – Alex Rodriguez

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

Luis Severino has great velocity, but he his strikeouts have been down this season. The Orioles are small favorites tonight and they currently have the sixth highest team total on the board. The sample size is still small, but Severino has allowed a .350 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Manny Machado not only hits right-handed pitching well, but he also has a .414 wOBA over the last two weeks of play.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.266 0.071 0.280 OF $2,700 OF $3,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.395 0.250 0.414 3B $4,200 3B $4,800
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.336 0.200 0.298 OF $2,700 OF $3,900
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.411 0.349 0.318 1B $4,100 1B $4,700
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.322 0.147 0.324 OF $3,700 OF $3,800
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.318 0.143 0.250 C $2,400 C $3,200
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.336 0.230 0.328 1B $2,800 1B $3,400
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.354 0.250 0.195 2B $2,400 2B $3,400
9 Nolan Reimold RIGHT 0.330 0.198 0.368 OF $2,700 OF $3,000
Team Averages — 0.341 0.204 0.308 — — — —

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – GPP

Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Texas Toronto
texasmlb Martin Perez torontomlb Marco Estrada
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -170 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.242 1 24.5% 9.2% SP vs. Left 0.281 15 16.9% 8.2%
SP vs. Right 0.343 5 10.4% 8.2% SP vs. Right 0.276 10 21.2% 7.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Martin Perez
martin-perez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,400
FPPG: 20.4 FPPG: 9.1
Pitcher Rating: 32.6 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 5.42 11.4% 12.2% 52.8% 21.7% 26
2015 14 4.06 14.2% 7.1% 59.9% 22.7% 3

Do you know what a major red flag for a pitcher is? When his walk rate (12.2%) is higher than his strikeout rate (11.4%). In five starts this season, Perez has a 5.42 SIERA. While he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, eventually those balls put into play are going to find holes in the infield and gaps in the outfield. The Blue Jays offense has really struggled to get going this season, but Perez may be the cure for that. Even with their recent skid, the Blue Jays are still ranked first in team wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,500
FPPG: 34.3 FPPG: 18.4
Pitcher Rating: 47.6 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 4 4.06 24.3% 10.7% 36.4% 26.9% 8
2015 28 4.64 18.1% 7.6% 32.2% 27.4% 8

Estrada has shown some nice upside so far this season, striking out over 24% of the batters that he has faced. A closer examination reveals that it may not be sustainable though, as his velocity hasn’t changed and he is actually generating a lower swinging strike rate. Perhaps it could be thanks to a new pitch in his repertoire though. He has thrown a cutter on 15% of his pitches this season and so far it appears to be working. Estrada could be a cheap source for a win tonight (thanks to a ton of run support), but I don’t love the matchup against the Rangers.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are a mediocre offense to target tonight. They see a nice ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre, but Marco Estrada has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA in the last two seasons. The one positive for hitters is that Estrada is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed 25 home runs in his last 32 starts.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.334 0.207 0.402 2B $4,000 2B $3,700
2 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.429 0.171 0.304 OF $3,200 OF $3,400
3 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.313 0.141 0.349 3B $3,500 3B $3,600
4 Prince Fielder LEFT 0.374 0.152 0.283 1B $3,100 1B $3,800
5 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.284 0.135 0.497 OF $3,500 OF $3,700
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.370 0.236 0.370 OF $3,400 1B $3,400
7 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.282 0.080 0.352 SS $3,000 SS $3,200
8 Bryan Holaday RIGHT 0.248 0.103 0.168 C $2,000 C $2,000
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.308 0.107 0.145 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
Team Averages — 0.327 0.148 0.319 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays are the creme of the crop tonight. They are the belle of the ball. They are the Kung Pao Chicken of Chinese food (this one may be a bit subjective). Ignore their recent struggles and jump on the bandwagon tonight. Martin Perez has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. He has allowed a .343 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are ranked first in both team wOBA and team ISO during that same time period. Do whatever you can to get as many Jays in your lineup as possible.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.480 0.440 0.460 OF $3,400 OF $3,600
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.458 0.374 0.439 3B $4,800 3B $5,200
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.361 0.218 0.300 OF $4,100 OF $4,200
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.359 0.218 0.229 1B $3,300 1B $3,800
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.350 0.164 0.363 SS $3,600 SS $4,100
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.366 0.206 0.238 C $2,200 C $3,600
7 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.302 0.245 0.317 1B $2,100 1B $3,300
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.301 0.093 0.350 OF $2,700 OF $3,300
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.238 0.087 0.141 2B $2,000 2B $2,100
Team Averages — 0.357 0.227 0.315 — — — —

Elite Plays – Michael Saunders, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Arizona at Miami – 7:10 PM

Arizona Miami
arizonamlb Patrick Corbin miamimlb Justin Nicolino
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -110 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.257 2 28.9% 7.2% SP vs. Left 0.305 1 12.3% 6.9%
SP vs. Right 0.352 14 17.6% 5.1% SP vs. Right 0.311 7 6.3% 6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,400
FPPG: 18.7 FPPG: 8.7
Pitcher Rating: 65.3 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 4.55 14.3% 7.5% 52.5% 40.4% 19
2015 16 3.44 21.9% 4.8% 46.9% 31.5% 9

Corbin is one of those pitchers that can make a great fantasy option when the matchup is right. Basically, when he has the platoon advantage, he deserves to be on your radar. Over the last two seasons, he has held left-handed hitters to a .257 wOBA with a 28.9% strikeout rate. He doesn’t fare nearly as well against right-handed hitters though. With all of the right-handed bats in the Marlins’ lineup, I will be avoiding Corbin in all league formats.

Justin Nicolino
justin-nicolino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 40.0 FPPG: 22.1
Pitcher Rating: 37.5 Pitcher Rank: 27
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 1 4.95 8.0% 8.0% 60.0% 28.6% 16
2015 12 5.59 7.6% 6.6% 44.4% 30.2% 16

Nicolino pitched seven shutout innings against the Dodgers in his first start of the season. While that outing was impressive, there is still one major issue – his strikeout rate. In his first 13 major league starts, Nicolino has a SIERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate under 8%. Basically, he is striking out one in every 12 hitters that he faces. He needs a near perfect outing to reach value and I’m not sure that will happen tonight against the Diamondbacks.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have a mediocre matchup tonight against the Justin Nicolino. They are projected to score 3.94 runs, which is right around the average of the 30 teams in action tonight. The right-handed bats in this lineup are in play, as Nicolino has allowed a .311 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate. Brandon Drury, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas, and Welington Castillo all have a .350+ wOBA against southpaws over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.307 0.110 0.342 SS $3,400 2B $4,100
2 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.358 0.250 0.469 3B $3,000 2B/3B $3,200
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.449 0.255 0.420 1B $4,200 1B $5,200
4 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.378 0.237 0.363 OF $3,400 OF $3,800
5 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.371 0.294 0.479 C $3,200 C $3,700
6 David Peralta LEFT 0.298 0.145 0.298 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
7 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.234 0.105 0.377 2B $2,100 OF $2,900
8 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.215 0.100 0.429 P $6,900 P $7,400
9 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.327 0.163 0.120 SS $2,000 SS $2,700
Team Averages — 0.326 0.184 0.366 — — — —

Elite Plays – Brandon Drury, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Yasmany Tomas, Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt,

Stackability – GPP

Miami

I always like to see pitcher’s with drastic splits because it makes our job very easy. Over the last two seasons, Patrick Corbin has allowed a .352 wOBA and 14 home runs to right-handed hitters. Do you want to hear a statistic that is absolutely mind-blowing? Over the last two seasons, Giancarlo Stanton has an ISO (.536) that is higher than his wOBA (.480). He may be the top hitter on the board tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.231 0.063 0.443 2B $2,900 2B/3B $2,400
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.370 0.129 0.451 3B $3,200 3B $3,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.341 0.069 0.385 OF $3,100 OF $3,700
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.480 0.536 0.479 OF $4,900 OF $5,300
5 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.395 0.212 0.386 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.349 0.200 0.426 C $2,900 C $3,400
7 Chris Johnson RIGHT 0.315 0.058 0.147 1B $2,000 1B/3B $2,500
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.370 0.127 0.238 SS $2,300 SS $3,300
9 Justin Nicolino LEFT 0.176 0.000 0.000 P $6,700 P $5,000
Team Averages — 0.336 0.155 0.328 — — — —

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Martin Prado, Marcell Ozuna, Chris Johnson

Stackability – GPP

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious