MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 19th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
Drew Pomeranz | Kevin Gausman | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BAL-113 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.350 | 0.303 | 32.6% | 9.4% | 28.3% | 36.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.363 | 0.349 | 31.1% | 12.5% | 20.3% | 40.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.296 | 0.309 | 31.8% | 9.4% | 23.2% | 43.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.350 | 0.339 | 32.9% | 6.7% | 22.0% | 43.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Pomeranz | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $15,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 3.80 | 3.32 | 26.5% | 9.3% | 46.2% | 31.5% | 19.1% | |
2017 | 29 | 4.24 | 3.28 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 42.1% | 32.0% | 21.3% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.79 | 3.14 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 38.7% | 30.3% | 15.8% |
Pomeranz is an intriguing tournament play tonight, even though the Orioles have a right-handed heavy lineup. He’s had a nice season overall, boasting a 4.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He has been tough on batters from both sides of the plate and he has shown an ability to pitch well even in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks. He doesn’t have a huge sample size against Baltimore, but he does have a 29% strikeout rate against their current roster.
Quick Breakdown: There are pitchers that I like a little more than Pomeranz, but he’s a viable tournament play at this price.
Kevin Gausman | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $13,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 3.81 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 6.2% | 44.1% | 31.1% | 18.3% | |
2017 | 31 | 4.57 | 4.83 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 42.0% | 32.2% | 18.7% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.65 | 3.58 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 41.8% | 22.5% | 21.3% |
Gausman has cooled off a bit recently, but his strikeout rate is up above 21% on the season thanks to a strong stretch after the All-Star break. Outside of Mookie Betts, he has torched this Red Sox lineup. Even with Betts going 12-for-26 with three home runs, Gausman has still held this roster to a .296 wOBA with a 21% strikeout rate. As pointed out by StevieTPF and TheSeige on the Morning Grind Podcast, Gausman’s ERA is markedly lower when Caleb Joseph is behind the plate.
Quick Breakdown: Gausman isn’t a great cash game option, but he’s worth a look in tournaments, especially if Joseph is catching.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox have really struggled against Kevin Gausman in the past. In a 15 game slate, we can certainly find better matchups to exploit. The one hitter that should be on your radar as a one-off target is Mookie Betts. He has an excellent track record in Camden Yards and some monster BvP numbers against Gausman. In 26 at-bats, Betts has 12 hits, including three home runs and a double.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.270 | 0.132 | 30.5% | 7.9% | 19.1% | 46.7% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
2 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.313 | 0.098 | 25.6% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 47.9% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,100 |
3 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.344 | 0.182 | 37.3% | 9.4% | 16.4% | 37.0% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,000 | LF | $9,900 |
4 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.331 | 0.185 | 35.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 39.5% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,400 | RF | $10,400 |
5 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.381 | 0.206 | 39.9% | 9.9% | 20.8% | 41.0% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $8,400 |
6 | Christian Vazquez | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.280 | 0.109 | 27.5% | 5.1% | 19.9% | 46.6% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,800 |
7 | Rafael Devers | LEFT | 0.294 | 0.287 | 0.180 | 32.7% | 7.6% | 22.2% | 50.5% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
8 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.221 | 0.240 | 0.041 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 23.9% | 56.3% | 3B | $2,100 | 2B/OF | $2,400 | 3B | $4,800 |
9 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.324 | 0.180 | 37.7% | 8.2% | 24.5% | 43.1% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,900 |
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts
Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi
Stackability – ORANGE
Baltimore
Even though we have two high-powered offenses squaring off in a hitter-friendly ballpark, I plan to have very little exposure to the hitters in this game. Drew Pomeranz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate this season. Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop all have good numbers against southpaws this season, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.330 | 0.180 | 36.2% | 8.2% | 26.5% | 48.4% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,000 |
2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.383 | 0.248 | 45.7% | 6.8% | 14.8% | 40.0% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,700 | 3B | $9,200 |
3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.411 | 0.384 | 0.314 | 39.4% | 9.0% | 23.7% | 42.3% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,800 |
4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.315 | 0.163 | 32.7% | 6.5% | 18.8% | 43.8% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,500 |
5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.318 | 0.130 | 31.8% | 3.9% | 24.0% | 50.0% | OF | $3,500 | 1B/OF | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
6 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.308 | 0.129 | 34.3% | 10.5% | 40.1% | 34.2% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
7 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.285 | 0.188 | 30.8% | 5.5% | 21.2% | 43.9% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
8 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.414 | 0.385 | 0.239 | 42.4% | 4.3% | 24.7% | 33.3% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
9 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.283 | 0.101 | 29.3% | 4.7% | 17.3% | 31.9% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,500 | RF | $4,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
LA Dodgers | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
Yu Darvish | Aaron Nola | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
LAD-155 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.347 | 0.311 | 36.2% | 8.4% | 26.5% | 43.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.319 | 0.299 | 33.5% | 9.2% | 23.0% | 45.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.263 | 0.281 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 27.2% | 36.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.273 | 0.254 | 26.2% | 5.0% | 28.8% | 53.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Yu Darvish | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $11,400 | Salary: | $22,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 17 | 3.08 | 3.41 | 31.7% | 7.5% | 40.4% | 30.0% | 22.8% | |
2017 | 29 | 3.81 | 4.08 | 26.8% | 7.9% | 40.2% | 33.8% | 19.8% | |
L30 | 4 | 3.92 | 6.05 | 27.4% | 9.5% | 41.2% | 43.4% | 18.9% |
Darvish finally broke out of his slump, striking out five batters in seven shutout innings against the Giants. While it was encouraging, it was the Giants and he was pitching at home. I’m not completely sold on Darvish being back yet. His numbers are still down across the board in his last four outings and we know that fly-ball pitchers can struggle in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park. The other issue is that Darvish has thrown 95 pitches or less in five straight starts. The good news is that the Phillies strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Darvish is viable in all formats, but there are enough red flags that I will be rolling out another pitcher as my SP1 in this slate.
Aaron Nola | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $16,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 20 | 3.29 | 4.78 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 55.2% | 28.8% | 23.2% | |
2017 | 25 | 3.66 | 3.60 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 49.6% | 29.7% | 22.5% | |
L30 | 5 | 3.03 | 4.99 | 29.6% | 5.3% | 51.2% | 24.7% | 18.8% |
Nola is awesome. He does everything well that we look for in a pitcher. In 25 starts this season, he has a 3.66 SIERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, and a 50% ground ball rate. He induces a lot of soft and medium contact and he is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. He is an intriguing leverage play off of the more popular Yu Darvish tonight in tournaments. We know that the Dodgers have plenty of firepower, but they also have six batters with at least a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in their projected lineup.
Quick Breakdown: Nola is viable in tournaments tonight, especially if you are fading Darvish and want some leverage on the field.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
We have two of the most talented pitchers in the slate squaring off in this one. If you’ve read the Grind Down before, then you know that I’m not a fan of target hitters against elite pitchers. Aaron Nola has a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. I have a feeling that people will look to the Dodgers’ offense tonight because of the ballpark, but they are a full fade in my eyes.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Taylor | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.334 | 0.210 | 34.5% | 9.1% | 25.5% | 41.7% | OF | $3,000 | 2B/OF | $3,500 | 2B | $6,900 |
2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.386 | 0.172 | 44.7% | 12.2% | 20.9% | 41.2% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.369 | 0.157 | 36.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 32.0% | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $4,500 | 3B | $8,800 |
4 | Cody Bellinger | LEFT | 0.392 | 0.368 | 0.345 | 44.6% | 13.0% | 26.6% | 35.9% | 1B | $4,400 | 1B/OF | $5,200 | IF/OF | $10,000 |
5 | Yasiel Puig | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.355 | 0.270 | 34.9% | 9.3% | 19.5% | 44.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,100 |
6 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.332 | 0.241 | 33.8% | 15.4% | 23.3% | 30.9% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,800 |
7 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.322 | 0.290 | 0.218 | 38.2% | 7.3% | 27.7% | 41.4% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
8 | Logan Forsythe | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.301 | 0.073 | 33.8% | 15.2% | 26.9% | 47.0% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/3B | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
9 | Yu Darvish | RIGHT | 0.097 | 0.043 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 77.8% | 100.0% | P | $9,300 | P | $11,400 | P | $22,000 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
Philadelphia
Even though Yu Darvish isn’t my favorite pitching option in the slate, that doesn’t mean that I’m going to be loading up on the Phillies’ offense. This is still a difficult matchup. Darvish has an elite strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. With 14 other games on the schedule, we can find better matchups to exploit.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.335 | 0.301 | 0.102 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 20.5% | 49.2% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $6,400 |
2 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.294 | 0.147 | 27.9% | 8.0% | 19.0% | 35.2% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,400 |
3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.306 | 0.163 | 27.9% | 6.8% | 22.2% | 41.5% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
4 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.450 | 0.379 | 0.396 | 45.3% | 13.4% | 22.7% | 26.7% | 1B | $4,300 | 1B/OF | $4,300 | 1B | $8,400 |
5 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.351 | 0.327 | 0.204 | 39.9% | 6.3% | 27.6% | 49.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $6,000 |
6 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.308 | 0.169 | 29.0% | 6.4% | 14.9% | 43.7% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $5,400 |
7 | J.P. Crawford | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.298 | 0.100 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 23.5% | 34.8% | SS | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $2,600 | SS | $5,200 |
8 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.423 | 0.322 | 0.220 | 22.0% | 0.0% | 29.0% | 58.5% | C | $3,000 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,600 |
9 | Aaron Nola | RIGHT | 0.132 | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 9.5% | 50.0% | 80.0% | P | $8,900 | P | $8,300 | P | $16,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
Milwaukee | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||||||
Chase Anderson | Trevor Williams | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
MIL-107 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.267 | 0.259 | 30.8% | 6.9% | 24.7% | 36.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.330 | 0.294 | 23.1% | 7.3% | 15.3% | 47.2% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.304 | 0.290 | 33.2% | 8.6% | 20.9% | 40.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.297 | 0.331 | 33.5% | 9.0% | 19.6% | 49.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Chase Anderson | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,500 | Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $15,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 4.68 | 4.39 | 18.6% | 8.2% | 36.1% | 36.6% | 17.2% | |
2017 | 22 | 4.34 | 2.88 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 38.5% | 32.2% | 18.6% | |
L30 | 6 | 4.79 | 2.84 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 39.6% | 29.4% | 18.5% |
If you look at his ERA (2.84), Anderson has pitched well in his last six starts. However, his peripheral stats suggest some serious regression, which is something that I never like to see from a pitcher. In those six starts, he has a 4.79 SIERA with a walk rate of 9%. He draws a bad strikeout matchup tonight against the Pirates, who have the fourth lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. He’s also pitching on the road in game that has a fairly high total for this ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: Anderson is a bit too expensive given the low strikeout upside he offers against the Pirates.
Trevor Williams | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 1 | 4.28 | 7.82 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 45.5% | 31.1% | 17.8% | |
2017 | 23 | 4.73 | 4.26 | 17.5% | 8.2% | 48.1% | 28.2% | 22.7% | |
L30 | 4 | 5.22 | 2.19 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 43.7% | 23.0% | 14.9% |
Williams has been an easy pitcher to fade this season. In 23 starts, he has a 4.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. The Brewers used to be an offense that we could target right-handed pitchers against, but that’s no longer the case. They now have a very capable offense with six starters that boast a .329+ xwOBA against righties this season.
Quick Breakdown: Williams is an easy fade in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
The Brewers draw a decent matchup against Trevor Williams, but they aren’t exactly a candidate to stack. There are some truly elite spots for offenses tonight and the Brewers are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If you are going to target Milwaukee tonight, make sure to note Trevor Williams splits. He has held lefties to a .294 xwOBA, while giving up a .332 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Eric Sogard | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.347 | 0.109 | 25.2% | 16.1% | 11.2% | 41.9% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/SS | $3,400 | 2B | $6,600 |
2 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.366 | 0.356 | 0.217 | 33.6% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 36.8% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,500 |
3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.329 | 0.217 | 37.2% | 7.6% | 21.2% | 48.2% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,400 |
4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.361 | 0.261 | 39.9% | 10.9% | 21.8% | 42.0% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,400 |
5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.337 | 0.213 | 37.7% | 11.5% | 30.5% | 45.3% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,100 |
6 | Eric Thames | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.352 | 0.301 | 42.4% | 14.6% | 27.9% | 37.7% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B/OF | $4,400 | 1B | $8,400 |
7 | Stephen Vogt | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.301 | 0.198 | 34.5% | 7.2% | 20.3% | 38.2% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
8 | Hernan Perez | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.280 | 0.168 | 29.8% | 4.3% | 17.1% | 47.8% | OF | $3,100 | 3B/OF | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
9 | Chase Anderson | RIGHT | 0.121 | 0.101 | 0.026 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 62.5% | P | $7,500 | P | $7,800 | P | $15,000 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana
Stackability – YELLOW
Pittsburgh
Chase Anderson has been tough on batters from both sides of the plate this season, but historically, he has been a reverse-splits pitcher. The Pirates haven’t been an offense to load up on this year, but I like the cheap price tags on both Andrew McCutchen and Jordan Luplow. I wouldn’t consider them core plays in this slate, but if you need a cheap outfielder on DraftKings, they are both viable against Anderson.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | John Jaso | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.350 | 0.203 | 37.4% | 13.3% | 21.7% | 31.3% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B/OF | $3,300 | 1B | $6,400 |
2 | Jordan Luplow | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.293 | 0.132 | 35.7% | 9.3% | 25.6% | 33.3% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,000 | LF | $6,000 |
3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.334 | 0.158 | 32.9% | 10.1% | 18.7% | 44.5% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
4 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.332 | 0.218 | 32.5% | 11.5% | 18.5% | 51.4% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.333 | 0.108 | 31.8% | 10.9% | 24.6% | 55.6% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $6,000 |
6 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.302 | 0.147 | 27.0% | 9.3% | 15.9% | 48.8% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,800 |
7 | Sean Rodriguez | RIGHT | 0.187 | 0.219 | 0.097 | 27.8% | 8.5% | 38.0% | 48.6% | OF | $2,000 | 3B/OF | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
8 | Chris Stewart | RIGHT | 0.232 | 0.258 | 0.031 | 29.3% | 6.5% | 15.9% | 36.7% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,000 | C | $4,000 |
9 | Trevor Williams | RIGHT | 0.092 | 0.176 | 0.000 | 12.0% | 5.3% | 28.9% | 60.0% | P | $6,500 | P | $6,600 | P | $13,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jordan Luplow, Andrew McCutchen
Stackability – ORANGE
Minnesota at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Minnesota | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
Jose Berrios | CC Sabathia | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYY-160 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.325 | 0.341 | 33.3% | 10.9% | 20.8% | 35.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.282 | 0.259 | 10.0% | 10.5% | 23.2% | 63.2% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.277 | 0.261 | 23.9% | 4.3% | 24.0% | 42.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.317 | 0.320 | 31.3% | 8.2% | 18.0% | 48.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jose Berrios | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $16,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | 5.36 | 8.02 | 17.4% | 12.5% | 38.0% | 33.3% | 18.2% | |
2017 | 23 | 4.25 | 3.84 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 39.5% | 28.2% | 19.7% | |
L30 | 6 | 3.86 | 2.68 | 26.3% | 7.9% | 39.6% | 30.6% | 16.3% |
Berrios pitched well when he was first called up to the majors this season, but his last six starts may have been his best stretch so far in the big leagues. In those outings, he posted a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 8%. The issue tonight is his matchup. Berrios is a fly-ball pitcher and he has to face the Yankees in their home ballpark. I expect the strikeouts to be plentiful here, but the risk outweighs the upside.
Quick Breakdown: There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.
CC Sabathia | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 4.35 | 3.91 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 50.1% | 24.7% | 24.0% | |
2017 | 24 | 4.56 | 3.85 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 51.0% | 28.1% | 24.8% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.21 | 3.14 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 53.0% | 18.6% | 34.9% |
As crazy as it sounds, my biggest MLB night of the year was with a Sabathia lineup. On paper, there isn’t anything that stands out when you look at his statistics. He has a 4.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19%. However, he has an above-average ground ball rate and is one of the best in baseball at inducing soft and medium contact. He rarely gets blown up and he typically pitches deep into games. He’s not flashy, but he gets the job done. I prefer him over Jose Berrios in this matchup, but I’m a little worried about his strikeout upside. The Twins have five projected starters with a strikeout rate under 20% against southpaws this season.
Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is a top six or seven pitching option in this slate, but I would only use him if you are making multiple lineups.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
The Twins couldn’t get anything going against Jaime Garcia last night and could suffer the same fate tonight against CC Sabathia. In addition to his high ground ball rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Brian Dozier would typically be a nice one-off targets against a lefty, but he’s so expensive that I’d rather look elsewhere at second base.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.433 | 0.387 | 0.305 | 38.6% | 13.9% | 17.9% | 42.6% | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $5,000 | 2B | $9,600 |
2 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.345 | 0.320 | 0.080 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 57.1% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,700 |
3 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.288 | 0.271 | 0.151 | 30.5% | 4.5% | 14.0% | 35.2% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,800 |
4 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.314 | 0.345 | 0.153 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 17.0% | 33.9% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B/SS | $4,200 | SS | $8,000 |
5 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.313 | 0.157 | 30.2% | 12.0% | 23.3% | 37.2% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,700 | CF | $9,300 |
6 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.289 | 0.251 | 0.116 | 28.7% | 2.5% | 19.7% | 53.3% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,100 | LF | $10,000 |
7 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.324 | 0.126 | 36.2% | 7.3% | 18.8% | 47.1% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,600 |
8 | Chris Gimenez | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.327 | 0.167 | 38.0% | 11.9% | 27.4% | 35.4% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
9 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.177 | 0.220 | 0.038 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 27.1% | 51.4% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,900 | RF | $5,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier
Stackability – RED
NY Yankees
The Yankees are basically a stack or stay away for me tonight. Jose Berrios has pitched well recently, but we know that he is susceptible to that big outing, especially when he’s pitching on the road. We also know that the Yankees can pile up runs as fast as any offense in baseball. A stack is certainly viable in tournaments. As for cash games and individual plays, there really isn’t anything that stands out. Berrios has a high strikeout rate and is typically good at limiting hard contact.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.329 | 0.190 | 32.1% | 11.1% | 18.6% | 40.9% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,400 |
2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.419 | 0.424 | 0.320 | 43.8% | 16.6% | 31.8% | 36.0% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $10,200 |
3 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.254 | 36.0% | 6.9% | 23.5% | 43.8% | C | $3,800 | C | $4,700 | C | $9,200 |
4 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.286 | 0.241 | 25.8% | 4.8% | 11.4% | 38.2% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $9,000 |
5 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.295 | 0.164 | 29.3% | 3.1% | 20.5% | 49.2% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
6 | Matt Holliday | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.330 | 0.196 | 30.4% | 10.1% | 26.0% | 47.9% | OF | $3,000 | 1B | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
7 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.236 | 0.294 | 0.128 | 34.9% | 11.1% | 28.7% | 30.6% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $6,600 |
8 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.346 | 0.184 | 30.6% | 14.4% | 22.3% | 37.1% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,800 |
9 | Clint Frazier | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.321 | 0.215 | 43.9% | 6.0% | 28.0% | 39.4% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro
Stackability – YELLOW
Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
Kansas City | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
Sam Gaviglio | Marcus Stroman | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TOR-170 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.348 | 0.359 | 30.5% | 9.2% | 15.5% | 45.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.295 | 0.314 | 31.5% | 8.5% | 19.0% | 65.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.364 | 0.344 | 33.3% | 6.8% | 16.2% | 52.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.305 | 31.8% | 6.0% | 21.3% | 58.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Sam Gaviglio | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $11,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 13 | 4.92 | 4.35 | 15.8% | 7.9% | 49.1% | 32.0% | 15.4% | |
L30 | 2 | 4.22 | 2.70 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 56.3% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
At the time of writing this, the Royals have still yet to announce a starter for tonight’s game. Gaviglio is expected to get the nod though, so that’s what we will roll with. Gaviglio has not pitched well in his 15 starts this season, posting a 4.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He comes into the game as a large underdog in a road start against the Blue Jays.
Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio is one of the easiest fades in the slate.
Marcus Stroman | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $16,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 3.62 | 4.37 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 60.1% | 31.8% | 18.3% | |
2017 | 30 | 3.79 | 3.08 | 20.2% | 7.2% | 61.8% | 31.6% | 20.2% | |
L30 | 5 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 22.6% | 4.7% | 57.1% | 42.9% | 10.4% |
Stroman has pitched well in his last five starts, posting a 3.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 5%. I’m always interested in a pitcher with a high ground ball rate and at least an average strikeout rate and Stroman has both of those in his corner. He should get overlooked tonight in all formats, which makes him an intriguing tournament play against the Royals. While they don’t strikeout at a high rate, Stroman has held their current roster to a .284 wOBA in his career and is a large home favorite.
Quick Breakdown: Stroman is a viable tournament play tonight at what should be low ownership.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals aren’t an offense that I love to target to begin with and now they are facing Marcus Stroman, who has an elite ground ball rate. On the season, Stroman has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. There isn’t a lot to see here outside of a potential Mike Moustakas one-off.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.307 | 0.160 | 29.0% | 4.4% | 13.8% | 37.5% | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
2 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.322 | 0.336 | 0.127 | 28.5% | 5.7% | 11.0% | 51.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $6,000 |
3 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.405 | 0.381 | 0.203 | 32.6% | 11.7% | 16.7% | 50.8% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $6,800 |
4 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.322 | 0.336 | 0.127 | 28.5% | 5.7% | 11.0% | 51.3% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $6,000 |
5 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.329 | 0.221 | 37.4% | 3.0% | 19.5% | 32.7% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,800 |
6 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.357 | 0.272 | 33.1% | 6.5% | 16.0% | 30.3% | 3B | $2,400 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,600 |
7 | Brandon Moss | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.340 | 0.247 | 38.1% | 9.3% | 30.6% | 30.9% | OF | $2,800 | 1B/OF | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
8 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.257 | 0.258 | 0.092 | 25.9% | 1.8% | 16.5% | 42.0% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,400 |
9 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.255 | 0.280 | 0.112 | 31.5% | 6.8% | 25.4% | 40.0% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $2,700 | LF | $5,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas
Stackability – RED
Toronto
The Blue Jays have let us down nearly as many times as the Tigers and Red Sox this season. These three teams seem to put up duds whenever they are expected to play well offensively. I’m not going to be stacking this offense tonight, but Toronto draws an exploitable matchup against Sam Gaviglio, who has allowed a .359 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .344 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ezequiel Carrera | LEFT | 0.361 | 0.299 | 0.144 | 26.7% | 8.1% | 22.1% | 48.6% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,900 | RF | $5,700 |
2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.379 | 0.278 | 33.8% | 16.2% | 23.0% | 42.2% | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $5,400 | 3B | $10,500 |
3 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.364 | 0.389 | 0.276 | 40.8% | 10.9% | 22.1% | 34.1% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $9,000 |
4 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.323 | 0.178 | 35.4% | 12.9% | 23.9% | 35.4% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,000 |
5 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.294 | 0.355 | 0.193 | 37.7% | 6.9% | 22.1% | 46.3% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,800 |
6 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.292 | 0.131 | 26.0% | 5.1% | 15.9% | 44.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,800 |
7 | Ryan Goins | LEFT | 0.268 | 0.275 | 0.121 | 30.4% | 7.0% | 18.9% | 46.5% | SS | $2,100 | 2B/SS | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
8 | Raffy Lopez | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.353 | 0.294 | 43.5% | 14.6% | 26.8% | 21.7% | C | $2,900 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,200 |
9 | Richard Urena | SWITCH | 0.245 | 0.227 | 0.140 | 32.0% | 6.4% | 40.4% | 52.2% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |