MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 19th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
Article Image Drew Pomeranz Article Image Kevin Gausman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-113 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.303 32.6% 9.4% 28.3% 36.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.363 0.349 31.1% 12.5% 20.3% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.309 31.8% 9.4% 23.2% 43.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.339 32.9% 6.7% 22.0% 43.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 29 4.24 3.28 24.4% 9.4% 42.1% 32.0% 21.3%
L30 5 4.79 3.14 24.0% 12.8% 38.7% 30.3% 15.8%

Pomeranz is an intriguing tournament play tonight, even though the Orioles have a right-handed heavy lineup. He’s had a nice season overall, boasting a 4.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He has been tough on batters from both sides of the plate and he has shown an ability to pitch well even in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks. He doesn’t have a huge sample size against Baltimore, but he does have a 29% strikeout rate against their current roster.

Quick Breakdown: There are pitchers that I like a little more than Pomeranz, but he’s a viable tournament play at this price.

Kevin Gausman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 31 4.57 4.83 21.3% 9.2% 42.0% 32.2% 18.7%
L30 5 4.65 3.58 21.9% 10.1% 41.8% 22.5% 21.3%

Gausman has cooled off a bit recently, but his strikeout rate is up above 21% on the season thanks to a strong stretch after the All-Star break. Outside of Mookie Betts, he has torched this Red Sox lineup. Even with Betts going 12-for-26 with three home runs, Gausman has still held this roster to a .296 wOBA with a 21% strikeout rate. As pointed out by StevieTPF and TheSeige on the Morning Grind Podcast, Gausman’s ERA is markedly lower when Caleb Joseph is behind the plate.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman isn’t a great cash game option, but he’s worth a look in tournaments, especially if Joseph is catching.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have really struggled against Kevin Gausman in the past. In a 15 game slate, we can certainly find better matchups to exploit. The one hitter that should be on your radar as a one-off target is Mookie Betts. He has an excellent track record in Camden Yards and some monster BvP numbers against Gausman. In 26 at-bats, Betts has 12 hits, including three home runs and a double.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.315 0.270 0.132 30.5% 7.9% 19.1% 46.7% SS $3,200 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.330 0.313 0.098 25.6% 9.1% 10.7% 47.9% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.350 0.344 0.182 37.3% 9.4% 16.4% 37.0% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 LF $9,900
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.326 0.331 0.185 35.2% 9.6% 11.5% 39.5% OF $4,400 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.334 0.381 0.206 39.9% 9.9% 20.8% 41.0% 1B $3,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.323 0.280 0.109 27.5% 5.1% 19.9% 46.6% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,800
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.294 0.287 0.180 32.7% 7.6% 22.2% 50.5% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
8 Brock Holt LEFT 0.221 0.240 0.041 22.5% 12.4% 23.9% 56.3% 3B $2,100 2B/OF $2,400 3B $4,800
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.318 0.324 0.180 37.7% 8.2% 24.5% 43.1% OF $3,600 OF $3,500 CF $6,900

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

Even though we have two high-powered offenses squaring off in a hitter-friendly ballpark, I plan to have very little exposure to the hitters in this game. Drew Pomeranz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate this season. Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop all have good numbers against southpaws this season, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.334 0.330 0.180 36.2% 8.2% 26.5% 48.4% SS $3,500 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.352 0.383 0.248 45.7% 6.8% 14.8% 40.0% 3B $3,500 3B $4,700 3B $9,200
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.411 0.384 0.314 39.4% 9.0% 23.7% 42.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.313 0.315 0.163 32.7% 6.5% 18.8% 43.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.307 0.318 0.130 31.8% 3.9% 24.0% 50.0% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.296 0.308 0.129 34.3% 10.5% 40.1% 34.2% 1B $3,300 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.337 0.285 0.188 30.8% 5.5% 21.2% 43.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.414 0.385 0.239 42.4% 4.3% 24.7% 33.3% C $2,900 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.297 0.283 0.101 29.3% 4.7% 17.3% 31.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 RF $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


LA Dodgers at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Philadelphia
Article Image Yu Darvish Article Image Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-155 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.311 36.2% 8.4% 26.5% 43.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.299 33.5% 9.2% 23.0% 45.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.263 0.281 31.3% 7.5% 27.2% 36.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.254 26.2% 5.0% 28.8% 53.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yu Darvish
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $11,400 Salary: $22,000
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 3.08 3.41 31.7% 7.5% 40.4% 30.0% 22.8%
2017 29 3.81 4.08 26.8% 7.9% 40.2% 33.8% 19.8%
L30 4 3.92 6.05 27.4% 9.5% 41.2% 43.4% 18.9%

Darvish finally broke out of his slump, striking out five batters in seven shutout innings against the Giants. While it was encouraging, it was the Giants and he was pitching at home. I’m not completely sold on Darvish being back yet. His numbers are still down across the board in his last four outings and we know that fly-ball pitchers can struggle in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park. The other issue is that Darvish has thrown 95 pitches or less in five straight starts. The good news is that the Phillies strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Darvish is viable in all formats, but there are enough red flags that I will be rolling out another pitcher as my SP1 in this slate.

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 25 3.66 3.60 26.1% 7.0% 49.6% 29.7% 22.5%
L30 5 3.03 4.99 29.6% 5.3% 51.2% 24.7% 18.8%

Nola is awesome. He does everything well that we look for in a pitcher. In 25 starts this season, he has a 3.66 SIERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, and a 50% ground ball rate. He induces a lot of soft and medium contact and he is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. He is an intriguing leverage play off of the more popular Yu Darvish tonight in tournaments. We know that the Dodgers have plenty of firepower, but they also have six batters with at least a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in their projected lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is viable in tournaments tonight, especially if you are fading Darvish and want some leverage on the field.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

We have two of the most talented pitchers in the slate squaring off in this one. If you’ve read the Grind Down before, then you know that I’m not a fan of target hitters against elite pitchers. Aaron Nola has a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. I have a feeling that people will look to the Dodgers’ offense tonight because of the ballpark, but they are a full fade in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.360 0.334 0.210 34.5% 9.1% 25.5% 41.7% OF $3,000 2B/OF $3,500 2B $6,900
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.360 0.386 0.172 44.7% 12.2% 20.9% 41.2% SS $3,100 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.364 0.369 0.157 36.2% 10.4% 11.3% 32.0% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.392 0.368 0.345 44.6% 13.0% 26.6% 35.9% 1B $4,400 1B/OF $5,200 IF/OF $10,000
5 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.377 0.355 0.270 34.9% 9.3% 19.5% 44.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
6 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.333 0.332 0.241 33.8% 15.4% 23.3% 30.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
7 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.322 0.290 0.218 38.2% 7.3% 27.7% 41.4% C $2,600 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.270 0.301 0.073 33.8% 15.2% 26.9% 47.0% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,000 2B $6,000
9 Yu Darvish RIGHT 0.097 0.043 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 77.8% 100.0% P $9,300 P $11,400 P $22,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Even though Yu Darvish isn’t my favorite pitching option in the slate, that doesn’t mean that I’m going to be loading up on the Phillies’ offense. This is still a difficult matchup. Darvish has an elite strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. With 14 other games on the schedule, we can find better matchups to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.335 0.301 0.102 20.9% 9.9% 20.5% 49.2% 2B $3,200 2B $3,200 2B $6,400
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.310 0.294 0.147 27.9% 8.0% 19.0% 35.2% SS $3,000 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.322 0.306 0.163 27.9% 6.8% 22.2% 41.5% OF $3,800 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.450 0.379 0.396 45.3% 13.4% 22.7% 26.7% 1B $4,300 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.351 0.327 0.204 39.9% 6.3% 27.6% 49.7% OF $3,600 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.295 0.308 0.169 29.0% 6.4% 14.9% 43.7% 3B $3,000 3B $2,700 3B $5,400
7 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.324 0.298 0.100 21.7% 8.8% 23.5% 34.8% SS $2,700 3B/SS $2,600 SS $5,200
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.423 0.322 0.220 22.0% 0.0% 29.0% 58.5% C $3,000 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.132 0.135 0.000 0.0% 9.5% 50.0% 80.0% P $8,900 P $8,300 P $16,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED


Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
Article Image Chase Anderson Article Image Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-107 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.267 0.259 30.8% 6.9% 24.7% 36.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.294 23.1% 7.3% 15.3% 47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.290 33.2% 8.6% 20.9% 40.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.331 33.5% 9.0% 19.6% 49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Anderson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.68 4.39 18.6% 8.2% 36.1% 36.6% 17.2%
2017 22 4.34 2.88 22.5% 7.9% 38.5% 32.2% 18.6%
L30 6 4.79 2.84 20.2% 9.0% 39.6% 29.4% 18.5%

If you look at his ERA (2.84), Anderson has pitched well in his last six starts. However, his peripheral stats suggest some serious regression, which is something that I never like to see from a pitcher. In those six starts, he has a 4.79 SIERA with a walk rate of 9%. He draws a bad strikeout matchup tonight against the Pirates, who have the fourth lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. He’s also pitching on the road in game that has a fairly high total for this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson is a bit too expensive given the low strikeout upside he offers against the Pirates.

Trevor Williams
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 23 4.73 4.26 17.5% 8.2% 48.1% 28.2% 22.7%
L30 4 5.22 2.19 17.8% 11.2% 43.7% 23.0% 14.9%

Williams has been an easy pitcher to fade this season. In 23 starts, he has a 4.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. The Brewers used to be an offense that we could target right-handed pitchers against, but that’s no longer the case. They now have a very capable offense with six starters that boast a .329+ xwOBA against righties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Williams is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a decent matchup against Trevor Williams, but they aren’t exactly a candidate to stack. There are some truly elite spots for offenses tonight and the Brewers are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If you are going to target Milwaukee tonight, make sure to note Trevor Williams splits. He has held lefties to a .294 xwOBA, while giving up a .332 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.354 0.347 0.109 25.2% 16.1% 11.2% 41.9% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
2 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.366 0.356 0.217 33.6% 11.4% 15.9% 36.8% 2B $3,200 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.347 0.329 0.217 37.2% 7.6% 21.2% 48.2% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.376 0.361 0.261 39.9% 10.9% 21.8% 42.0% 3B $3,500 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.365 0.337 0.213 37.7% 11.5% 30.5% 45.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
6 Eric Thames LEFT 0.390 0.352 0.301 42.4% 14.6% 27.9% 37.7% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $4,400 1B $8,400
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.305 0.301 0.198 34.5% 7.2% 20.3% 38.2% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.292 0.280 0.168 29.8% 4.3% 17.1% 47.8% OF $3,100 3B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.121 0.101 0.026 10.0% 0.0% 50.0% 62.5% P $7,500 P $7,800 P $15,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Chase Anderson has been tough on batters from both sides of the plate this season, but historically, he has been a reverse-splits pitcher. The Pirates haven’t been an offense to load up on this year, but I like the cheap price tags on both Andrew McCutchen and Jordan Luplow. I wouldn’t consider them core plays in this slate, but if you need a cheap outfielder on DraftKings, they are both viable against Anderson.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 John Jaso LEFT 0.325 0.350 0.203 37.4% 13.3% 21.7% 31.3% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $3,300 1B $6,400
2 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.310 0.293 0.132 35.7% 9.3% 25.6% 33.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 LF $6,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.328 0.334 0.158 32.9% 10.1% 18.7% 44.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.351 0.332 0.218 32.5% 11.5% 18.5% 51.4% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.316 0.333 0.108 31.8% 10.9% 24.6% 55.6% 3B $2,800 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.303 0.302 0.147 27.0% 9.3% 15.9% 48.8% SS $2,000 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
7 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.187 0.219 0.097 27.8% 8.5% 38.0% 48.6% OF $2,000 3B/OF $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Chris Stewart RIGHT 0.232 0.258 0.031 29.3% 6.5% 15.9% 36.7% C $2,100 C $2,000 C $4,000
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.092 0.176 0.000 12.0% 5.3% 28.9% 60.0% P $6,500 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jordan Luplow, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE


Minnesota at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Minnesota NY Yankees
Article Image Jose Berrios Article Image CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-160 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.341 33.3% 10.9% 20.8% 35.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.259 10.0% 10.5% 23.2% 63.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.261 23.9% 4.3% 24.0% 42.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.320 31.3% 8.2% 18.0% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Berrios
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 5.36 8.02 17.4% 12.5% 38.0% 33.3% 18.2%
2017 23 4.25 3.84 22.5% 7.4% 39.5% 28.2% 19.7%
L30 6 3.86 2.68 26.3% 7.9% 39.6% 30.6% 16.3%

Berrios pitched well when he was first called up to the majors this season, but his last six starts may have been his best stretch so far in the big leagues. In those outings, he posted a 3.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 8%. The issue tonight is his matchup. Berrios is a fly-ball pitcher and he has to face the Yankees in their home ballpark. I expect the strikeouts to be plentiful here, but the risk outweighs the upside.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

CC Sabathia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 24 4.56 3.85 18.9% 8.6% 51.0% 28.1% 24.8%
L30 5 4.21 3.14 20.7% 8.3% 53.0% 18.6% 34.9%

As crazy as it sounds, my biggest MLB night of the year was with a Sabathia lineup. On paper, there isn’t anything that stands out when you look at his statistics. He has a 4.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 19%. However, he has an above-average ground ball rate and is one of the best in baseball at inducing soft and medium contact. He rarely gets blown up and he typically pitches deep into games. He’s not flashy, but he gets the job done. I prefer him over Jose Berrios in this matchup, but I’m a little worried about his strikeout upside. The Twins have five projected starters with a strikeout rate under 20% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is a top six or seven pitching option in this slate, but I would only use him if you are making multiple lineups.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins couldn’t get anything going against Jaime Garcia last night and could suffer the same fate tonight against CC Sabathia. In addition to his high ground ball rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Brian Dozier would typically be a nice one-off targets against a lefty, but he’s so expensive that I’d rather look elsewhere at second base.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.433 0.387 0.305 38.6% 13.9% 17.9% 42.6% 2B $4,000 2B $5,000 2B $9,600
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.345 0.320 0.080 21.4% 7.9% 12.6% 57.1% 1B $3,800 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.288 0.271 0.151 30.5% 4.5% 14.0% 35.2% SS $3,300 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.314 0.345 0.153 27.7% 8.5% 17.0% 33.9% 3B $3,400 3B/SS $4,200 SS $8,000
5 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.366 0.313 0.157 30.2% 12.0% 23.3% 37.2% OF $3,300 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.289 0.251 0.116 28.7% 2.5% 19.7% 53.3% OF $4,300 OF $5,100 LF $10,000
7 Jason Castro LEFT 0.326 0.324 0.126 36.2% 7.3% 18.8% 47.1% C $2,400 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.303 0.327 0.167 38.0% 11.9% 27.4% 35.4% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Max Kepler LEFT 0.177 0.220 0.038 19.7% 5.9% 27.1% 51.4% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 RF $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are basically a stack or stay away for me tonight. Jose Berrios has pitched well recently, but we know that he is susceptible to that big outing, especially when he’s pitching on the road. We also know that the Yankees can pile up runs as fast as any offense in baseball. A stack is certainly viable in tournaments. As for cash games and individual plays, there really isn’t anything that stands out. Berrios has a high strikeout rate and is typically good at limiting hard contact.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.354 0.329 0.190 32.1% 11.1% 18.6% 40.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.419 0.424 0.320 43.8% 16.6% 31.8% 36.0% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 RF $10,200
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.372 0.372 0.254 36.0% 6.9% 23.5% 43.8% C $3,800 C $4,700 C $9,200
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.366 0.286 0.241 25.8% 4.8% 11.4% 38.2% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.329 0.295 0.164 29.3% 3.1% 20.5% 49.2% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.310 0.330 0.196 30.4% 10.1% 26.0% 47.9% OF $3,000 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.236 0.294 0.128 34.9% 11.1% 28.7% 30.6% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.328 0.346 0.184 30.6% 14.4% 22.3% 37.1% 3B $3,800 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
9 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.306 0.321 0.215 43.9% 6.0% 28.0% 39.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW


Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Kansas City Toronto
Article Image Sam Gaviglio Article Image Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-170 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.359 30.5% 9.2% 15.5% 45.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.314 31.5% 8.5% 19.0% 65.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.364 0.344 33.3% 6.8% 16.2% 52.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.305 31.8% 6.0% 21.3% 58.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sam Gaviglio
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.92 4.35 15.8% 7.9% 49.1% 32.0% 15.4%
L30 2 4.22 2.70 18.2% 6.8% 56.3% 18.8% 18.8%

At the time of writing this, the Royals have still yet to announce a starter for tonight’s game. Gaviglio is expected to get the nod though, so that’s what we will roll with. Gaviglio has not pitched well in his 15 starts this season, posting a 4.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He comes into the game as a large underdog in a road start against the Blue Jays.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio is one of the easiest fades in the slate.

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 30 3.79 3.08 20.2% 7.2% 61.8% 31.6% 20.2%
L30 5 3.40 3.60 22.6% 4.7% 57.1% 42.9% 10.4%

Stroman has pitched well in his last five starts, posting a 3.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 5%. I’m always interested in a pitcher with a high ground ball rate and at least an average strikeout rate and Stroman has both of those in his corner. He should get overlooked tonight in all formats, which makes him an intriguing tournament play against the Royals. While they don’t strikeout at a high rate, Stroman has held their current roster to a .284 wOBA in his career and is a large home favorite.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is a viable tournament play tonight at what should be low ownership.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals aren’t an offense that I love to target to begin with and now they are facing Marcus Stroman, who has an elite ground ball rate. On the season, Stroman has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. There isn’t a lot to see here outside of a potential Mike Moustakas one-off.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.324 0.307 0.160 29.0% 4.4% 13.8% 37.5% 2B $4,100 2B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.322 0.336 0.127 28.5% 5.7% 11.0% 51.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.405 0.381 0.203 32.6% 11.7% 16.7% 50.8% 1B $3,700 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
4 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.322 0.336 0.127 28.5% 5.7% 11.0% 51.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.329 0.329 0.221 37.4% 3.0% 19.5% 32.7% C $3,100 C $3,500 C $6,800
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.354 0.357 0.272 33.1% 6.5% 16.0% 30.3% 3B $2,400 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.300 0.340 0.247 38.1% 9.3% 30.6% 30.9% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.257 0.258 0.092 25.9% 1.8% 16.5% 42.0% SS $3,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.255 0.280 0.112 31.5% 6.8% 25.4% 40.0% OF $3,100 OF $2,700 LF $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The Blue Jays have let us down nearly as many times as the Tigers and Red Sox this season. These three teams seem to put up duds whenever they are expected to play well offensively. I’m not going to be stacking this offense tonight, but Toronto draws an exploitable matchup against Sam Gaviglio, who has allowed a .359 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .344 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.361 0.299 0.144 26.7% 8.1% 22.1% 48.6% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.396 0.379 0.278 33.8% 16.2% 23.0% 42.2% 3B $4,200 3B $5,400 3B $10,500
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.364 0.389 0.276 40.8% 10.9% 22.1% 34.1% 1B $3,200 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.308 0.323 0.178 35.4% 12.9% 23.9% 35.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.294 0.355 0.193 37.7% 6.9% 22.1% 46.3% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.279 0.292 0.131 26.0% 5.1% 15.9% 44.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
7 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.268 0.275 0.121 30.4% 7.0% 18.9% 46.5% SS $2,100 2B/SS $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Raffy Lopez LEFT 0.393 0.353 0.294 43.5% 14.6% 26.8% 21.7% C $2,900 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.245 0.227 0.140 32.0% 6.4% 40.4% 52.2% SS $2,500 SS $3,600 SS $7,200

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious