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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-28 02:37:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Arizona at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Washington
arizonamlb Matt Koch washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -250 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.188 0 16.7% 18.2% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.311 16 30.2% 25.7%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.285 1 50.0% 11.8% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.199 12 27.9% 37.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Koch
matt-koch-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,000 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 8.4 FPPG: 4.3
Pitcher Rating: 34.8 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 5.40 1.29 14.3% 10.7% 9.8% 30.0% 50.0% 40.0%
2016 0 0.0 5.40 1.29 14.3% 10.7% 9.8% 30.0% 50.0% 40.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 0.00 — K%: 17.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.182
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 9.00 — K%: 0.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.547

Koch has made five appearances out of the bullpen, but he will draw his first major league start tonight. In seven starts at the Triple-A level this season, he posted a 3.09 ERA with a strikeout rate of 12.9%. If he could only strikeout 13% of hitters in the minor leagues, that is a major red flag for his fantasy appeal in the majors. He is the largest underdog in the entire slate and he should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $11,300 Salary: $14,200
FPPG: 45.8 FPPG: 26.1
Pitcher Rating: 99.2 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 106.8 3.37 2.29 28.4% 5.7% 14.6% 30.8% 49.5% 28.6%
2016 32 105.3 3.05 2.82 31.4% 6.1% 15.1% 33.4% 48.7% 29.1%
2015 33 101.8 2.63 2.79 30.7% 3.8% 15.3% 35.8% 45.4% 28.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.87 — K%: 30.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.252
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.76 — K%: 31.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.264

Scherzer is dominant at home and on the road. In 32 starts this season, he has a 3.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.4%. He should mow through this Diamondbacks’ offense that is much better at home and much better against left-handed pitching. On the season, they are ranked below the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching. No offense to Chris Sale, but Mad Max is the ace that I want in my lineup tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have the lowest implied team total in the slate. It should come as no surprise, as they have to face one of the best pitchers in baseball and they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. In 2016, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.375 0.170 29.5% 0.425 2B $3,600 2B $3,600
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.301 0.127 30.5% 0.253 SS $2,600 OF/SS $2,500
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.366 0.186 35.7% 0.433 1B $3,900 1B $3,700
4 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.306 0.130 34.8% 0.329 C $2,800 C $2,700
5 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.369 0.284 41.9% 0.231 3B $3,000 3B $3,800
6 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.308 0.206 39.9% 0.387 OF $2,500 OF $2,400
7 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.337 0.170 32.1% 0.468 OF $3,600 3B/OF $3,100
8 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.306 0.145 38.5% 0.360 OF $2,400 OF $2,900
9 Matt Koch RIGHT 0.690 0.000 0.0% 0.690 P $3,000 P $4,000
Team Averages — 0.373 0.158 31.4% 0.397 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals come into tonight’s game with one of the highest implied team totals in the slate. They draw a favorable matchup against rookie Matt Koch, who is making his first career major league start. As I mentioned above, Koch is a low strikeout pitcher that could get knocked around by the Nationals.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.405 0.265 33.2% 0.398 OF $4,000 2B/OF $5,500
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.301 0.140 33.0% 0.258 OF $3,700 OF $3,900
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.351 0.188 35.0% 0.242 OF $3,500 OF $5,000
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.336 0.181 37.2% 0.252 3B $3,500 3B $3,800
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.347 0.160 35.1% 0.396 C $3,300 C $4,400
6 Stephen Drew LEFT 0.380 0.276 38.9% 0.358 SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,500
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.275 0.145 33.9% 0.281 1B $3,000 1B $3,500
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.297 0.140 30.2% 0.223 SS $2,700 SS $3,100
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.181 0.018 24.4% 0.219 P $11,300 P $14,200
Team Averages — 0.319 0.168 33.4% 0.292 — — — —

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Drew

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb David Price nyyankeesmlb Luis Cessa
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -170 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.311 6 31.0% 19.6% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.335 7 39.7% 19.4%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.298 20 35.3% 26.3% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.324 8 26.6% 13.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $11,100
FPPG: 37.6 FPPG: 20.0
Pitcher Rating: 80.0 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 103.3 3.26 3.51 26.5% 4.3% 12.4% 43.2% 38.7% 28.6%
2016 33 103.8 3.50 3.91 24.6% 5.1% 12.0% 44.1% 33.5% 34.1%
2015 32 105.9 3.27 2.45 25.3% 5.3% 11.9% 40.4% 36.4% 28.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.53 — K%: 26.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.83 — K%: 23.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Price has been dominant in his last five starts, posting a 3.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.5%. He draws a decent matchup against the Yankees, who have not hit left-handed pitching well as a team this season. New York has had some success against Price in his career, but a lot of the damage against him came in only a few outings. He has as much upside as any pitcher not-named Scherzer or Sale tonight.

Luis Cessa
luis-cessa-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $4,100
FPPG: 16.9 FPPG: 8.4
Pitcher Rating: 38.0 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 85.2 4.50 4.50 15.9% 4.4% 11.0% 43.1% 39.4% 32.1%
2016 7 86.3 4.51 4.30 15.8% 5.4% 10.6% 42.9% 38.6% 31.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.61 — K%: 16.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.346
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.27 — K%: 15.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.314

Cessa has not fared well in his first seven major league starts, posting a 4.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.8%. He has been an easy fade in daily fantasy and that trend will continue tonight, as the Yankees host the Red Sox. Cessa is a large underdog in this matchup. On the season, the Red Sox are ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox may not be playing at home tonight, but it shouldn’t matter. Their offense should continue to roll in a matchup against Luis Cessa, who has allowed a .335 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. A Red Sox stack is in play in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.356 0.132 33.0% 0.252 2B $3,500 2B $4,100
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.337 0.144 29.4% 0.312 SS $3,800 SS $4,400
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.447 0.365 46.7% 0.471 1B $4,200 1B $5,600
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.392 0.212 33.6% 0.416 OF $4,200 OF $5,600
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.344 0.184 37.4% 0.505 1B $4,100 1B $4,900
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.327 0.181 35.8% 0.183 3B $2,900 1B/3B $3,300
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.336 0.148 34.1% 0.184 C $2,900 C $3,200
8 Chris Young RIGHT 0.335 0.203 39.6% 0.391 P $5,500 P $4,000
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.431 0.262 34.0% 0.421 OF $3,100 OF $3,000
Team Averages — 0.367 0.203 36.0% 0.348 — — — —

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees

The Yankees have not hit left-handed pitching well this season, ranking 24th in team wOBA and 26th in team ISO. To make matters worse, they have to face David Price, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA this season. Gary Sanchez is always in play as a one-off target, but the rest of the Yankees can be avoided tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.284 0.085 24.1% 0.284 OF $3,000 OF $3,000
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.256 0.077 25.9% 0.169 OF $2,900 OF $2,200
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.361 0.370 46.7% 0.443 C $3,900 C $4,700
4 Billy Butler RIGHT 0.326 0.136 29.1% 0.428 1B $2,300 1B $2,700
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.352 0.138 22.3% 0.322 SS $2,900 SS $2,900
6 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.305 0.114 31.8% 0.246 1B $2,600 1B $2,800
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.299 0.081 28.1% 0.290 3B $2,600 3B $2,400
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.214 0.108 37.8% 0.326 OF $2,200 OF $2,300
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.233 0.028 26.7% 0.199 3B $2,400 3B/SS $2,100
Team Averages — 0.292 0.126 30.3% 0.301 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
cubsmlb John Lackey pittsburghmlb Ryan Vogelsong
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -148 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.303 6 33.6% 21.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.396 6 31.7% 14.2%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.263 17 35.5% 26.9% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.314 5 29.4% 19.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey
john-lackey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $9,400
FPPG: 35.5 FPPG: 19.6
Pitcher Rating: 77.3 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 89.3 4.20 3.24 21.2% 7.1% 11.5% 40.3% 41.8% 33.8%
2016 28 98.6 3.78 3.39 24.4% 6.9% 11.6% 40.1% 37.3% 34.7%
2015 33 94.8 3.90 2.77 19.5% 5.9% 9.4% 46.0% 33.3% 30.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.26 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.273
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.13 — K%: 21.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309

Lackey is having another strong season for the Cubs, posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.4%. Joe Maddon has limited his pitcher’s innings over the last month or so, but Lackey should still see at least six innings if he is pitching well tonight. He draws a decent matchup against the Pirates, who are ranked 16th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Lackey isn’t a bad play by any means, but there are so many great pitching options that I will have very little (if any) exposure to him.

Ryan Vogelsong
ryan-vogelsong-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,200
FPPG: 13.7 FPPG: 6.5
Pitcher Rating: 48.4 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 80.2 5.28 8.00 17.3% 11.8% 7.5% 36.5% 38.8% 34.1%
2016 12 100.4 4.91 4.85 17.3% 10.1% 6.6% 42.3% 35.9% 30.4%
2015 22 105.0 4.54 4.67 18.1% 9.7% 6.3% 44.7% 36.1% 31.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.74 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.310
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.51 — K%: 17.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.365

Vogelsong has some drastic home/road splits in the last two seasons. At home, he has a 3.74 ERA with a strikeout rate of 18.6% and a wOBA allowed of .310. On the road, it’s another story entirely. Even though he is pitching at home tonight, the matchup is too scary to even consider rostering Vogelsong. The Cubs are ranked ninth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may not be playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t target their hitters in a favorable matchup against Ryan Vogelsong. On the season, he has allowed a .396 wOBA and six home runs to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.358 0.169 28.4% 0.470 OF $4,100 OF $5,300
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.387 0.249 40.6% 0.318 3B $4,100 3B/OF $5,100
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.408 0.277 38.6% 0.382 1B $4,200 1B $5,500
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.349 0.162 32.7% 0.355 2B $3,200 2B $4,700
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.311 0.159 29.2% 0.304 SS $2,300 SS $3,700
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.281 0.096 26.6% 0.365 OF $3,000 OF $3,700
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.297 0.141 27.2% 0.342 SS $2,700 2B/3B $3,600
8 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.309 0.158 30.2% 0.299 C $2,500 C $3,600
9 John Lackey RIGHT 0.144 0.047 30.4% 0.000 P $9,300 P $9,400
Team Averages — 0.316 0.162 31.5% 0.315 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates haven’t been great offensively this season, but they do have the sixth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. They come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest run projection in the slate. John Lackey has been tough on left and right-handed hitters this season, holding both under a .305 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.331 0.144 35.2% 0.283 SS $2,000 2B/OF $2,800
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.377 0.181 39.8% 0.327 1B $3,300 1B/OF $2,500
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.335 0.177 36.9% 0.458 OF $3,300 OF $4,500
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.334 0.207 36.7% 0.245 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
5 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.388 0.276 39.8% 0.406 3B $3,900 3B $4,300
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.302 0.063 24.1% 0.341 C $2,700 C $2,800
7 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.347 0.259 41.4% 0.445 OF $3,200 2B/SS $3,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.292 0.106 25.1% 0.239 SS $2,200 SS $2,700
9 Ryan Vogelsong RIGHT 0.101 0.000 20.0% 0.000 P $6,000 P $4,200
Team Averages — 0.312 0.157 33.2% 0.305 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman torontomlb Aaron Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -142 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.275 9 31.4% 25.2% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.295 11 32.3% 20.7%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.351 16 29.7% 22.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.262 3 27.1% 18.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,000
FPPG: 32.0 FPPG: 17.0
Pitcher Rating: 68.2 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 110.4 3.26 2.16 25.9% 4.4% 12.5% 45.7% 32.6% 30.4%
2016 28 103.7 3.76 3.57 23.7% 6.3% 10.8% 42.9% 35.6% 30.5%
2015 17 110.4 3.69 4.25 21.9% 6.2% 10.9% 44.4% 38.1% 27.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.47 — K%: 22.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.283
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.06 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.345

Gausman is another pitcher with drastic home/road splits. In the last two seasons on the road, he has a 5.06 ERA with a wOBA allowed of .345. To make matters worse, he is a reverse-splits pitcher that has to face a Blue Jays’ offense that is loaded with right-handed power hitters. There is more risk than upside in this matchup and we can avoid Gausman in both cash games and GPPs.

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 33.5 FPPG: 17.5
Pitcher Rating: 52.3 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 94.3 5.73 3.97 13.1% 12.1% 6.9% 46.6% 34.2% 33.8%
2016 28 97.1 4.01 3.12 19.6% 7.9% 7.9% 55.7% 24.1% 29.7%
2015 11 131.7 4.43 3.22 16.1% 11.6% 7.0% 60.6% 21.6% 21.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.40 — K%: 17.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.292
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.93 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280

Sanchez has not been in good form recently, posting a 5.73 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.1% in his last four starts. His command has been a bit off and he hasn’t been able to induce that elite ground ball rate that makes him so effective. Until he can flash some form, I will continue to avoid him in DFS. With all of the great pitching options on the mound tonight, Sanchez is an easy fade against the Orioles.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. Their implied team total seems a bit low to me, as they are facing a struggling pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The low total should lead to low ownership, which makes them an intriguing stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.350 0.200 32.5% 0.227 OF $3,300 OF $3,600
2 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.361 0.111 31.1% 0.253 OF $2,800 OF $2,800
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.367 0.255 34.7% 0.289 3B $3,800 3B/SS $3,800
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.352 0.275 42.4% 0.230 1B $3,000 1B $3,900
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.382 0.297 39.9% 0.322 OF $3,400 OF $4,100
6 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.357 0.274 39.2% 0.332 3B $3,500 1B $3,400
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.332 0.197 28.9% 0.223 2B $3,000 2B $2,700
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.312 0.183 30.9% 0.277 C $2,700 C $3,200
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.306 0.125 31.8% 0.412 SS $2,400 SS $2,600
Team Averages — 0.347 0.213 34.6% 0.285 — — — —

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays let us down last night and they have a chance to do it again tonight. They come into the game with the eighth highest implied team total on the board. Their matchup against Kevin Gausman looks great on paper, as he has allowed a .351 wOBA and 16 home runs to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.365 0.173 30.5% 0.313 2B $3,700 2B $3,300
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.401 0.273 41.3% 0.406 3B $4,600 3B $4,700
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.379 0.276 38.6% 0.422 1B $4,200 1B $4,100
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.358 0.215 41.1% 0.407 OF $4,200 OF $4,300
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.333 0.186 31.4% 0.333 C $2,900 C $3,300
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.324 0.199 34.7% 0.269 SS $3,100 SS $4,000
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.339 0.211 38.7% 0.234 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.293 0.109 26.4% 0.288 OF $2,800 OF $2,900
9 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.324 0.196 44.1% 0.421 1B $2,400 1B $3,100
Team Averages — 0.346 0.204 36.3% 0.344 — — — —

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger detroitmlb Justin Verlander
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -180 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.236 1 23.1% 22.2% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.272 15 25.7% 31.1%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.378 6 36.7% 21.0% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.284 15 32.9% 24.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,900
FPPG: 15.9 FPPG: 8.1
Pitcher Rating: 43.1 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 70.3 4.48 2.87 23.4% 10.9% 11.4% 36.6% 51.2% 26.2%
2016 9 81.8 4.74 4.65 21.6% 12.4% 9.7% 38.7% 40.1% 30.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.54 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.04 — K%: 22.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.321

Clevinger’s numbers in his last four starts look good on paper – 2.87 ERA with a strikeout rate of 23.4%. Those numbers don’t include the fact that he has walked over 10% of the hitters that he has faced and that he didn’t throw more than 85 pitches in any single outing during that stretch. As a large underdog on the road, Clevinger is an easy fade tonight. The Tigers are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $11,600
FPPG: 40.4 FPPG: 22.7
Pitcher Rating: 86.2 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 110.8 2.93 2.50 34.2% 6.5% 12.5% 24.7% 56.2% 36.3%
2016 32 107.9 3.50 3.21 27.6% 6.5% 11.8% 33.1% 48.2% 29.5%
2015 20 107.5 3.95 3.37 21.1% 6.0% 10.0% 34.6% 45.5% 23.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.55 — K%: 26.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.93 — K%: 23.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274

Verlander has been tremendous all season, but he is coming off of his best five-game stretch of the year. In those five starts, he had a 2.93 ERA with a strikeout rate of 34.2%. He is as locked in as any pitcher in baseball right now. If it weren’t for the matchup, he would be considered right up there with Max Scherzer and Chris Sale as the top pitching option in the slate. The one caveat here is that the Indians clinched their division last night. If they decide to rest their typical starters, Verlander would become an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians beat the Tigers last night and clinched their division. They could end up partying tonight, but they could also be all business. They are only a game behind the Red Sox in the loss column and still have a chance to be the number one seed in the American League. Regardless of what their lineup looks like tonight, we should avoid their hitters against Justin Verlander.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.384 0.284 38.7% 0.501 1B $3,900 1B $4,200
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.350 0.196 38.4% 0.315 2B $3,600 2B $3,700
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.350 0.138 26.5% 0.164 SS $3,400 SS $3,800
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.345 0.249 35.3% 0.288 1B $3,500 1B $3,100
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.356 0.150 25.5% 0.433 P $4,000 P $4,200
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.341 0.157 28.4% 0.252 OF $3,000 OF $2,700
7 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.307 0.171 24.7% 0.353 OF $2,500 OF $2,700
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.379 0.236 40.7% 0.317 OF $2,700 OF $2,900
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.235 0.094 26.0% 0.219 C $2,500 C $2,000
Team Averages — 0.339 0.186 31.6% 0.316 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

The Tigers come into tonight’s game with the third highest implied team total in the slate. With six games to play, they are two behind the Orioles for the final wildcard spot in the American League. They basically can’t afford to lose another game. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against Mike Clevinger, who has allowed a .378 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.339 0.183 34.4% 0.385 2B $3,600 2B $4,700
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.357 0.094 23.8% 0.404 OF $3,200 OF $4,500
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.391 0.243 40.1% 0.368 1B $3,800 1B $5,300
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.352 0.196 40.8% 0.376 C $3,500 1B $4,100
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.396 0.238 38.0% 0.256 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.316 0.203 38.1% 0.440 OF $3,400 OF $4,400
7 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.282 0.086 22.5% 0.308 SS $2,300 SS $3,200
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia SWITCH 0.295 0.203 38.7% 0.120 C $2,100 C $2,900
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.263 0.051 12.4% 0.314 SS $2,200 SS $2,700
Team Averages — 0.332 0.166 32.1% 0.330 — — — —

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious