MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-04 02:07:11

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Miami					Chicago Cubs
			Tom Koehler					John Lackey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -200					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.335	21	33.7%	18.4%	SP vs. Left	0.314	16	31.4%	16.8%
SP vs. Right	0.310	11	29.0%	16.4%	SP vs. Right	0.274	22	31.6%	25.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tom Koehler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		26.0	FPPG:		12.3
					Pitcher Rating:		34.6	Pitcher Rank:		28
L30 Days	5	85.8	5.01	3.33	14.3%	6.3%	11.0%	33.3%	40.2%	30.3%
2016	21	92.8	4.98	4.18	17.8%	10.8%	9.4%	41.2%	34.8%	26.2%
2015	31	96.0	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Koehler has been an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS this season, posting a 4.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.8% and a walk rate of 10.8%. He hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and he draws one of the worst matchups on the board. The Cubs are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and Koehler has to face them on the road. As one of the largest underdogs in the slate, Koehler is an easy fade.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
John Lackey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$9,300
					FPPG:		35.7	FPPG:		19.4
					Pitcher Rating:		75.9	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	106.0	4.19	5.06	22.4%	9.0%	10.6%	43.2%	36.4%	30.8%
2016	21	100.0	3.74	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	11.5%	40.3%	37.8%	34.0%
2015	33	94.8	3.90	2.77	19.5%	5.9%	9.4%	46.0%	33.3%	30.1%

Lackey is having a great season, but he comes into today’s game in less than stellar form. In his last five starts, he has a 5.06 ERA with a walk rate of 9%. Lackey relies on strikeouts and pop-ups for his success, so when he is walking batters and giving up home runs, it obviously hurts his fantasy appeal. He is worth a look in the early-only slate though, as the Marlins are ranked 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Lackey should be able to put himself in line to pick up the win.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have the fourth lowest implied team total on the board today. Even though John Lackey hasn’t been in great form recently, Vegas doesn’t like the spot for the Marlins. If you want to look at a contrarian play or two, Lackey has allowed a .314 wOBA and 16 home runs to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich have good stolen base potential with Miguel Montero behind the plate for the Cubs.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.7% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.25 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.67 (27 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.319	0.078	0.325	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.308	0.097	0.397	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,600
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.373	0.163	0.393	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.353	0.257	0.319	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,600
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.309	0.143	0.339	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.359	0.180	0.199	1B	$2,200	2B	$2,600
7	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.203	0.083	0.447	C	$2,400	C	$2,400
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.275	0.084	0.344	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.113	0.015	0.176	P	$7,100	P	$6,400
	Team Averages	—	0.290	0.122	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

We go from a team with one of the lowest run projections to a team with one of the highest run projections. The Cubs are heavy favorites today against Tom Koehler and the Marlins. In addition to a low strikeout rate, Koehler has allowed a .335 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .310 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He has also given up 32 home runs in the last two seasons combined.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.6% (25 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.99 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.09 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.83 (5 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.335	0.174	0.347	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.377	0.223	0.344	3B	$3,900	3B/OF	$5,000
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.398	0.273	0.352	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,500
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.345	0.175	0.354	2B	$3,800	2B/OF	$4,500
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.344	0.189	0.272	C	$2,900	C/OF	$3,600
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.331	0.139	0.257	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.318	0.153	0.267	C	$2,300	C	$3,100
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.287	0.144	0.323	SS	$2,700	2B/3B	$4,000
9	John Lackey	RIGHT	0.128	0.026	0.000	P	$8,700	P	$9,300
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.166	0.280	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Milwaukee					San Diego
			Junior Guerra					Edwin Jackson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -142					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.273	4	38.9%	20.6%	SP vs. Left	0.275	2	25.0%	14.9%
SP vs. Right	0.266	6	30.4%	20.6%	SP vs. Right	0.321	5	28.1%	16.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Junior Guerra
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$10,700
					FPPG:		34.8	FPPG:		18.9
					Pitcher Rating:		63.6	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	5	105.2	4.54	1.59	18.7%	9.7%	10.8%	52.7%	31.2%	30.5%
2016	16	96.7	4.26	2.70	20.8%	8.3%	11.0%	46.3%	35.6%	34.7%
2015	0	0.0	3.28	6.75	16.7%	5.6%	10.6%	57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

Guerra may not be able to sustain his 2.70 ERA the rest of the season, but he has a mediocre SIERA with a strikeout rate over 20%. He draws one of the top matchups on the board, as he gets to square off against the strikeout-happy Padres. On the season, San Diego is ranked 29th in both team wOBA and team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. If you want to be contrarian in the early slate, you can start your lineups with Guerra.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Edwin Jackson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		7.5	FPPG:		3.0
					Pitcher Rating:		35.1	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	3	90.0	6.25	5.19	10.1%	12.7%	7.4%	41.4%	34.5%	31.2%
2016	3	90.0	5.96	5.46	11.9%	12.7%	8.0%	39.1%	41.3%	31.6%
2015	0	0.0	4.27	3.07	17.5%	9.2%	10.7%	41.1%	36.8%	24.1%

Jackson hasn’t been great this season, posting a 5.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate (11.9%) that is lower than his walk rate (12.7%). Of the two pitchers in this game, I’d rather take a chance on Junior Guerra, even though he is pitching on the road. The Brewers may not be a great offensive team, but Jackson has shown more downside than upside in the last few seasons.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers’ run projection may not stand out when you compare it with all of the other teams on the schedule, but the fact that they are projected to score 4.25 runs on the road in this ballpark is telling. If you look at his career splits, Edwin Jackson has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .332 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.1% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.04 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.04 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.25 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.334	0.121	0.331	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,500
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.311	0.130	0.356	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.357	0.199	0.475	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,900
4	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.313	0.235	0.284	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700
5	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.317	0.197	0.448	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
6	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.269	0.068	0.406	3B	$2,900	3B/OF	$4,200
7	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.254	0.081	0.446	C	$2,400	C	$2,800
8	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.188	0.140	0.408	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.250	0.053	0.146	P	$8,500	P	$10,700
	Team Averages	—	0.288	0.136	0.367	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego

The Padres may be underdogs in this matchup, but Junior Guerra may regress a bit in the second half of the season. His splits against left and right-handed hitters don’t jump off the page at us, but he has allowed a 38.9% hard hit contact rate to lefties. Eventually, those hard hit balls are going to find some gaps or find the seats. If you are targeting any Padres today, use the ones that can hit from the left side of the plate.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.291 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.8% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.38 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.75 (25 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.318	0.106	0.290	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400
2	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.408	0.367	0.442	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,300
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.334	0.200	0.308	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,400
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.339	0.175	0.297	3B	$3,400	2B/3B	$3,300
5	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.360	0.253	0.440	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900
6	Jabari Blash	RIGHT	0.209	0.000	0.286	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,200
7	Christian Bethancourt	RIGHT	0.256	0.134	0.118	C	$2,500	C	$2,600
8	Jose Rondon	RIGHT	0.125	0.000	0.098	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,200
9	Edwin Jackson	RIGHT	0.439	0.000	0.220	P	$6,500	P	$4,700
	Team Averages	—	0.310	0.137	0.278	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ryan Schimpf

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Alex Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Washington					Arizona
			Max Scherzer					Zack Godley
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -240					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.295	24	28.2%	26.8%	SP vs. Left	0.274	0	20.7%	15.8%
SP vs. Right	0.223	25	27.3%	36.4%	SP vs. Right	0.351	7	34.8%	22.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Max Scherzer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$13,200
					FPPG:		45.4	FPPG:		26.1
					Pitcher Rating:		98.0	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	109.8	3.21	1.32	29.1%	6.0%	14.8%	35.4%	46.3%	26.2%
2016	22	106.0	2.93	2.85	32.2%	6.4%	15.1%	34.7%	46.6%	27.3%
2015	33	101.8	2.63	2.79	30.7%	3.8%	15.3%	35.8%	45.4%	28.1%

Scherzer will be the chalk play in the early-only slate. While John Lackey is also in a good spot, it’s tough to pass on Scherzer against a strikeout happy Diamondbacks’ lineup. On the season, Scherzer has a 2.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32.2%. He has been one of the best pitchers in all of daily fantasy, because even when he gives up runs, he is still striking hitters out at a high rate. He has double-digit strikeout potential against an Arizona offense that is ranked 26th in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zack Godley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		16.0	FPPG:		7.0
					Pitcher Rating:		42.2	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	4	84.8	4.41	6.23	16.2%	8.1%	11.8%	53.4%	23.3%	28.4%
2016	5	98.0	4.41	5.63	16.8%	8.4%	11.8%	53.3%	26.7%	27.4%
2015	6	95.7	4.15	3.19	22.7%	11.3%	10.6%	45.7%	31.9%	30.2%

Godley is making his sixth start of the season and his 12th in the last two years. During that stretch, he has a SIERA right around 4.25 with a strikeout rate close to 20%. He has struggled a bit with his command, but he induces a high ground ball rate and he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. The biggest issue with Godley is his matchup. The Nationals have been tearing the cover off the ball recently. At this point, I want nothing to do with any pitcher facing this offense.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals come into today’s game with the third highest run projection of the 30 teams in action. They draw a mediocre matchup against Zack Godley. While he has decent numbers in the last two seasons, he is still inexperienced at the major league level. The Nationals see a nice ballpark boost playing in Chase Field and hitters from both sides of the plate are in play.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.89 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.06 (3 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.318	0.158	0.368	SS	$3,700	2B/OF	$4,300
2	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.295	0.078	0.194	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.432	0.298	0.237	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,300
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.379	0.225	0.482	2B	$4,300	2B	$5,600
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.321	0.147	0.395	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,700
6	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.306	0.169	0.230	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500
7	Wilmer Difo		0.327	0.154	0.497			2B	$2,900
8	Pedro Severino		0.282	0.111	0.293			C	$2,900
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.176	0.012	0.000	P	$11,600	P	$13,200
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.150	0.300	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have the most difficult matchup in the early-only slate. They have to take on Max Scherzer, who has one of the highest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. The one weakness that Scherzer has is the deep ball. He has allowed 49 home runs in the last two seasons combined. I don’t recommend any Diamondbacks’ hitters in cash games, but I could see a solo shot or two hit against Scherzer.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.3% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.41 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.44 (28 of 30)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.270	0.069	0.219	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800
2	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.268	0.089	0.144	SS	$2,400	OF/SS	$2,200
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.364	0.220	0.115	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,500
4	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.391	0.224	0.329	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
5	David Peralta	LEFT	0.378	0.215	0.223	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.297	0.135	0.465	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
7	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.310	0.158	0.237	OF	$2,500	3B/OF	$2,600
8	Tuffy Gosewisch	RIGHT	0.226	0.062	0.199	C	$2,100	C	$2,000
9	Zack Godley	RIGHT	0.126	0.000	0.176	P	$5,400	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.130	0.234	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb, David Peralta

Stackability – RED

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
NY Mets					NY Yankees
			Steven Matz					Chad Green
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -120					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.329	2	16.8%	18.5%	SP vs. Left	0.404	5	43.8%	23.9%
SP vs. Right	0.293	13	31.4%	23.7%	SP vs. Right	0.278	2	41.2%	30.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Steven Matz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$8,800
					FPPG:		29.6	FPPG:		15.5
					Pitcher Rating:		67.3	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	101.0	4.10	3.19	20.3%	6.8%	8.3%	43.3%	30.0%	36.8%
2016	19	96.6	3.63	3.35	22.4%	5.7%	9.4%	50.3%	28.9%	30.0%
2015	6	96.0	3.63	2.27	22.8%	6.7%	8.3%	45.5%	33.7%	21.2%

Matz has seen a small dip in his strikeout rate recently, but he is still having a great season. In 19 starts, he has a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.4%. He would obviously be a more appealing DFS play if this game was being played in Citi Field, but he’s still worth a look against the Yankees. On the season, the Yankees are ranked 25th in team wOBA and 28th in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Matz’s ownership should be down, which makes him a nice contrarian play in GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chad Green
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,800
					FPPG:		18.3	FPPG:		10.1
					Pitcher Rating:		50.3	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	2	78.0	2.96	3.86	28.8%	6.9%	14.2%	51.1%	28.9%	40.4%
2016	3	79.3	3.06	4.56	27.3%	6.1%	13.3%	49.2%	30.2%	42.4%

Green will be making his third start of the season and his eighth appearance overall. He has yet to throw more than 86 pitches, so he could be on a pitch count tonight against the Mets. While I like the matchup, Green comes into the game as a small underdog and he is pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Even at his cheap price point, there are better fantasy options tonight.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are ranked 21st in team wOBA and 24th in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, yet they come into tonight’s game with the tenth highest implied team total on the board. They draw a decent matchup against Chad Green, who has allowed a .404 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. The Mets see a nice ballpark boost tonight and they also get to utilize the DH since this game is being played in an AL ballpark.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (24 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.94 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.68 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.37 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.365	0.219	0.200	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.327	0.168	0.357	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.340	0.265	0.447	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,200
4	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.277	0.113	0.324	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,300
5	James Loney	LEFT	0.329	0.113	0.337	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,500
6	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.357	0.244	0.287	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200
7	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.271	0.059	0.408	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000
8	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.312	0.154	0.271	C	$2,300	C	$3,100
9	Matt Reynolds	LEFT	0.235	0.138	0.816	P	$4,000	P	$4,100
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.164	0.383	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Michael Conforto

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are small underdogs tonight against Steven Matz, who has held both left and right-handed hitters in check this season. Matz has an above-average strikeout rate and he generally keeps his hard hit contact rate down. With Carlos Beltran shipped off to Texas, this Yankees’ offense should really struggle against southpaws moving forward (even more than they already have).

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.302 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.127 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.75 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.05 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.320	0.105	0.348	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,400
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.283	0.081	0.254	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
3	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.360	0.241	0.092	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,400
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.324	0.182	0.273	C	$2,600	C	$3,000
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.310	0.135	0.318	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,900
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.309	0.080	0.252	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000
7	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.302	0.107	0.260	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,000
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.313	0.107	0.342	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,700
9	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.292	0.133	0.157	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.130	0.255	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

San Francisco at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
San Francisco					Philadelphia
			Johnny Cueto					Aaron Nola
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -165					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.270	10	27.8%	23.1%	SP vs. Left	0.324	10	29.6%	18.4%
SP vs. Right	0.293	19	27.4%	19.4%	SP vs. Right	0.292	11	27.8%	27.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Johnny Cueto
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,700	Salary:		$11,900
					FPPG:		41.0	FPPG:		22.7
					Pitcher Rating:		79.5	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	4	107.8	3.85	2.88	22.9%	6.7%	8.8%	45.9%	37.8%	27.0%
2016	21	106.3	3.57	2.63	22.2%	5.1%	9.2%	50.9%	29.3%	25.9%
2015	32	102.1	3.81	3.44	20.3%	5.3%	9.9%	42.4%	35.6%	28.7%

Cueto is hoping to have more success against the Phillies than his teammate, Madison Bumgarner. The Phillies exploded for 13 runs in a win last night over the Giants. I’m not too concerned about a single game, as the Phillies are still ranked 18th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team strikeout rate this season. Cueto has an above-average strikeout rate and he comes into the game in good form. His price seems a bit expensive, but Cueto is a strong play in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Nola
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		29.6	FPPG:		15.4
					Pitcher Rating:		65.0	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	3	81.0	3.98	5.40	22.4%	9.0%	9.9%	55.8%	30.2%	40.0%
2016	20	89.8	3.25	4.78	25.1%	6.0%	9.6%	55.2%	24.8%	28.4%
2015	13	85.9	3.66	3.59	21.4%	6.0%	8.6%	47.6%	32.4%	28.8%

Nola may have a 4.78 ERA on the season, but his peripheral stats suggest some improvement moving forward. In 20 starts, he has a 3.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.1%. We typically like to avoid pitchers against the Giants though, especially now that Hunter Pence and Joe Panik are back in the lineup. Nola’s strikeout rate is limited in this matchup, as the Giants have the second lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants should shoot up the rankings in most offensive categories now that they are healthy. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Aaron Nola, who has allowed a .324 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. This isn’t my favorite offense to target, but I expect the Giants to give Johnny Cueto enough run support to pick up the win.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 16.8% (2 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.50 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.346	0.122	0.343	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100
2	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.287	0.104	0.308	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.371	0.187	0.351	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.351	0.146	0.328	C	$3,200	C	$3,900
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.334	0.203	0.269	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,000
6	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.365	0.191	0.334	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,700
7	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.348	0.161	0.117	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,300
8	Johnny Cueto	RIGHT	0.111	0.000	0.000	P	$10,700	P	$11,900
9	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.328	0.121	0.221	3B	$3,100	3B/SS	$4,300
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.137	0.252	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies put up 13 runs last night against the Giants, but we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance. They come into tonight’s game with the second lowest implied team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Johnny Cueto, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.295 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.3% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.74 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.55 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.37 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.300	0.087	0.405	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,400
2	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.349	0.145	0.296	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,500
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.332	0.202	0.226	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,200
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.322	0.248	0.371	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,500
5	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.393	0.280	0.386	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,500
6	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.290	0.139	0.294	C	$2,400	C	$3,000
7	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.299	0.164	0.167	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.288	0.123	0.279	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,300
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.106	0.022	0.144	P	$7,800	P	$8,400
	Team Averages	—	0.298	0.157	0.285	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 3rd

Stackability Rating System:

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Ryan Schimpf

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Alex Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb, David Peralta

Stackability – RED

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Michael Conforto

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

San Francisco at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author