MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 15th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-15 17:28:01

Houston at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Houston					St. Louis
			Collin McHugh					Adam Wainwright
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -120					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.315	15	19.5%	6.9%	SP vs. Left	0.299	2	17.5%	4.6%
SP vs. Right	0.327	14	21.1%	5.3%	SP vs. Right	0.318	6	16.4%	5.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Collin McHugh
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		26.9	FPPG:		13.1
					Pitcher Rating:		52.1	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	6	100.8	3.51	4.95	24.8%	6.4%	13.4%	47.7%	36.4%	30.6%
2016	13	96.5	3.88	5.22	21.4%	5.8%	10.9%	43.4%	38.1%	26.0%
2015	32	101.3	3.91	3.89	19.9%	6.2%	10.3%	45.4%	34.6%	25.1%

McHugh has a better SIERA than ERA, which does suggest some positive regression moving forward. On the season, he owns a 3.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.8%. While I will keep him on my radar moving forward, I will be avoiding him tonight against the Cardinals, who are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Wainwright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,300
					FPPG:		23.1	FPPG:		10.7
					Pitcher Rating:		73.3	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	5	98.0	3.55	3.03	22.1%	4.6%	7.4%	47.3%	30.8%	29.0%
2016	13	92.5	4.40	5.21	16.5%	5.7%	7.3%	42.5%	32.0%	31.4%
2015	4	95.8	3.45	1.61	18.0%	3.6%	7.8%	51.2%	22.6%	21.8%

Wainwright looked great, yes great, in his last start. He had everything working and he was making batters miss on a regular basis. He finished that start against the Reds with nine strikeouts, while only giving up two hits. He’s not getting any love from Vegas yet, but I am all over Wainwright tonight at this price. The Astros haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season and they have one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball. To sweeten the pot, Wainwright gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. This is the time to jump on Waino before he becomes an extremely popular play.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Given the fact that I am high on Adam Wainwright tonight, that means that I am obviously not a big fan of the Astros’ offense. While they may have a mediocre run projection, I’m not too interested in targeting their hitters in a pitcher-friendly National League ballpark. I’m pulling the complete fade on the Astros tonight.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.0% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.342	0.177	0.334	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,300
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.343	0.155	0.437	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,400
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.353	0.204	0.384	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,200
4	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.329	0.222	0.259	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.313	0.217	0.258	C	$3,000	C	$3,800
6	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.293	0.146	0.322	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
7	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.345	0.220	0.361	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300
8	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.312	0.153	0.143	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,300
9	Collin McHugh	RIGHT	0.098	0.000		P	$7,200	P	$6,400
	Team Averages	—	0.303	0.166	0.312	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis

The Cardinals are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s game with the ninth highest team total on the board. They draw a decent matchup against Collin McHugh, who has allowed a .315 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .327 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.352 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.204 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.56 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.37 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.404	0.266	0.542	2B	$4,300	3B	$5,100
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.386	0.228	0.302	SS	$3,900	SS	$3,800
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.357	0.172	0.369	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.344	0.166	0.319	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.340	0.198	0.394	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,400
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.332	0.117	0.407	3B	$2,700	SS	$3,400
7	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.338	0.253	0.634	1B	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,100
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.354	0.257	0.228	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
9	Adam Wainwright	RIGHT	0.302	0.333	0.312	P	$8,100	P	$8,300
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.221	0.390	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss

Stackability – GPP

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Chicago White Sox
			Mike Pelfrey					Chris Sale
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CWS -180					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.373	10	11.4%	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.276	2	32.1%	5.2%
SP vs. Right	0.326	11	12.4%	3.7%	SP vs. Right	0.279	31	29.2%	5.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Pelfrey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		17.3	FPPG:		6.9
					Pitcher Rating:		28.8	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	5	98.4	5.25	3.34	10.9%	8.5%	6.7%	50.5%	29.7%	20.4%
2016	12	96.0	5.26	4.68	11.5%	9.5%	7.9%	50.7%	27.9%	29.7%
2015	30	88.8	4.59	4.26	12.0%	6.3%	5.6%	50.8%	26.4%	26.1%

Pelfrey is not a great pitcher. Pelfrey, if you are reading this, it’s nothing personal. On the season, he owns a 5.26 SIERA with a walk rate that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate. He draws an tough matchup tonight against the White Sox in U.S. Cellular Field. There is no reason for Pelfrey to be on your radar tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chris Sale
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$11,500
					FPPG:		43.4	FPPG:		24.0
					Pitcher Rating:		83.3	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	6	106.2	3.76	4.20	22.8%	5.3%	9.0%	31.7%	38.2%	29.3%
2016	13	107.2	3.59	2.87	23.9%	5.3%	9.4%	38.6%	39.0%	27.4%
2015	31	107.2	2.52	3.41	32.1%	4.9%	14.6%	42.6%	35.3%	25.1%

Sale’s strikeout rate has been down a bit this season, but he still owns a 3.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.9%. The issue with Sale tonight is his matchup against the Tigers. They are one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching and the one weakness for Sale has been against right-handed hitters. The Tigers lineup could feature nine right-handed batters in it tonight. At a similar price, I prefer Noah Syndergaard in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers aren’t my favorite offense to target tonight, but you can certainly use a few of their hitters as one-offs in tournaments. Chris Sale is one of the toughest pitchers in baseball, but he has allowed 31 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.319 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.153 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.2% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.67 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.373	0.168	0.426	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,100
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.353	0.140	0.321	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.364	0.175	0.312	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,900
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.371	0.129	0.356	C	$2,800	1B	$3,700
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.370	0.233	0.294	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,000
6	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.379	0.262	0.429	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200
7	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.266	0.116	0.341	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,800
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.379	0.245	0.393	C	$2,000	C	$2,900
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.344	0.100	0.397	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.355	0.174	0.363	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are one of the top offenses to target tonight. They have the fourth highest team total on the board, as they square off against Mike Pelfrey at home. Not only does Pelfrey struggle to strike batters out, but he has allowed a .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .326 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.06 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.96 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.532	0.250	0.200	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,000
2	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.351	0.164	0.289	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.324	0.127	0.403	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.363	0.214	0.391	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,800
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.334	0.223	0.290	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,200
6	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.292	0.138	0.248	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,200
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.293	0.115	0.215	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
8	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.263	0.099	0.227	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
9	J.B. Shuck	LEFT	0.281	0.067	0.228	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.337	0.155	0.277	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cleveland at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Kansas City
			Corey Kluber					Ian Kennedy
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -140					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.314	15	24.7%	6.5%	SP vs. Left	0.350	25	24.3%	8.6%
SP vs. Right	0.237	14	29.1%	3.8%	SP vs. Right	0.330	20	23.1%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Corey Kluber
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$13,100
					FPPG:		37.8	FPPG:		21.4
					Pitcher Rating:		84.0	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	6	103.7	3.40	3.14	24.9%	5.3%	10.6%	46.1%	34.8%	25.6%
2016	13	98.2	3.36	3.65	24.8%	5.4%	11.8%	49.0%	33.5%	28.0%
2015	32	102.3	2.98	3.49	27.7%	5.1%	12.9%	42.4%	35.9%	27.0%

Kluber would typically be one of the most popular pitching targets in a smaller ten-game slate, but it’s hard to justify taking him over Noah Syndergaard. Kluber’s numbers on the season are certainly impressive, as he has a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.8%. He draws a decent matchup against the Royals, who have really struggled offensively this season. I love Kluber as a GPP play, but will be leaning toward Syndergaard in cash games.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ian Kennedy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,300
					FPPG:		30.3	FPPG:		15.6
					Pitcher Rating:		71.3	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	98.6	4.20	5.40	20.7%	7.4%	9.9%	38.6%	38.6%	40.0%
2016	12	101.1	4.22	4.06	22.1%	8.4%	10.1%	35.2%	45.2%	35.2%
2015	30	97.0	3.61	4.28	24.4%	7.3%	10.3%	38.5%	38.7%	35.2%

Kennedy is always an interesting tournament play when he is pitching at home. His biggest weakness over the last few seasons has been the long ball, which is largely negated by the spacious Kauffman Stadium. Kennedy hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but he still sports a strikeout rate well above 20%. At his price point, Kennedy is one of my favorite GPP plays tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians may be small favorites tonight, but they come into the game with the 11th lowest team total on the board. They draw a decent matchup against Ian Kennedy, who has allowed 45 home runs over his last 42 starts. Kennedy has also given up a .350 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.2% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.68 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.98 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.338	0.214	0.335	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,000
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.374	0.167	0.356	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,900
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.341	0.149	0.354	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,300
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.295	0.178	0.341	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,400
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.314	0.136	0.299	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$3,200
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.295	0.132	0.352	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.276	0.185	0.220	C	$2,600	C	$2,800
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.392	0.221	0.461	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.311	0.146	0.292	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.170	0.334	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City

The Royals’ offense has been an easy fade for most of the season. They currently average the fourth fewest runs per game and they come into tonight’s contest with the fifth lowest team total on the board. They should be avoided tonight against Corey Kluber.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.131 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.78 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.52 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.312	0.085	0.361	OF	$3,400	2B/OF	$2,700
2	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.263	0.059	0.141	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,000
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.391	0.196	0.364	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,300
4	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.325	0.128	0.273	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,600
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.333	0.193	0.389	C	$2,900	C	$2,900
6	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.338	0.213	0.326	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,400
7	Reymond Fuentes	LEFT	0.336	0.030	0.488	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600
8	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.309	0.136	0.390	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,200
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.301	0.117	0.265	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.129	0.333	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota at LA Angels – 10:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Minnesota					LA Angels
			Tyler Duffey					Hector Santiago
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA -125					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.330	4	24.9%	6.8%	SP vs. Left	0.288	5	19.1%	8.6%
SP vs. Right	0.337	8	17.7%	6.3%	SP vs. Right	0.334	38	21.1%	9.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Duffey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		25.4	FPPG:		12.2
					Pitcher Rating:		55.5	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	6	100.8	3.72	6.69	18.8%	4.4%	7.3%	50.0%	25.0%	33.6%
2016	9	98.0	3.70	5.33	20.2%	4.7%	8.2%	48.0%	27.5%	32.4%
2015	10	90.8	3.83	3.10	21.9%	8.3%	9.8%	49.7%	30.9%	26.6%

Duffey’s ERA is a lot higher than his SIERA, which does suggest some positive regression moving forward. Overall, his numbers aren’t awful, as he has a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate just over 20%. He draws a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Angels, who have the lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching this season. Duffey is cheap, but this isn’t the best time to take a chance on him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Hector Santiago
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,200
					FPPG:		21.9	FPPG:		10.5
					Pitcher Rating:		67.2	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	6	80.3	4.68	8.28	20.9%	11.3%	10.0%	38.0%	40.8%	37.3%
2016	13	91.9	4.59	5.64	19.9%	9.6%	10.0%	39.4%	43.4%	34.5%
2015	32	98.8	4.50	3.59	20.9%	9.2%	8.5%	29.9%	53.6%	33.6%

Santiago has really struggled over the last month of play. During that stretch, he had an ERA of 8.28 with a walk rate of 11.3%. The Twins are a team that strikes out at a high rate, but I want to see some form from Santiago before I consider using him in DFS. I much prefer spending a bit more and going up to Adam Wainwright.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are ranked 23rd in team wOBA against left-handed pitching, but this matchup actually suits their lineup well. Over the last two seasons, Hector Santiago has allowed a .334 wOBA and 38 home runs to right-handed hitters. The Twins will likely have seven or eight righties in the lineup tonight.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.307 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.163 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.9% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.90 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.10 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.348	0.280	0.355	SS	$3,600	3B/SS	$4,500
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.310	0.124	0.313	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,000
3	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.367	0.189	0.477	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,500
4	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.333	0.180	0.280	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,600
5	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.347	0.214	0.397	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,100
6	Byung-Ho Park	RIGHT	0.333	0.268	0.298	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,600
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.161	0.045	0.250	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.274	0.082	0.356	C	$2,500	C	$2,800
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.161	0.075	0.297	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.293	0.162	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Byung-Ho Park

Stackability – GPP

LA Angels

The Angels have the eighth highest team total on the board tonight. While their offense has been better over the last few weeks, that total seems a bit high. They draw a mediocre matchup against Tyler Duffey, whose advanced pitching statistics look a lot better than his ERA. Outside of Mike Trout, the Angels are secondary options at their respective positions.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 16.2% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.23 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.40 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.341	0.094	0.307	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,500
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.334	0.167	0.372	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.412	0.285	0.389	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.329	0.209	0.286	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,500
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.326	0.181	0.398	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400
6	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.300	0.109	0.259	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,000
7	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.337	0.243	0.451	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$2,400
8	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.284	0.124	0.181	C	$2,100	C	$2,200
9	Gregorio Petit	RIGHT	0.321	0.138	0.401	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.172	0.338	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Jefry Marte

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Oakland
			Derek Holland					Sonny Gray
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK -135					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.281	2	20.6%	7.2%	SP vs. Left	0.275	10	20.9%	8.1%
SP vs. Right	0.348	18	13.5%	7.1%	SP vs. Right	0.292	16	18.8%	7.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Derek Holland
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,300
					FPPG:		21.4	FPPG:		9.7
					Pitcher Rating:		49.2	Pitcher Rank:		25
L30 Days	5	93.6	5.09	3.52	13.2%	6.6%	5.6%	42.7%	45.8%	21.9%
2016	12	91.9	5.22	4.87	13.1%	7.3%	6.4%	37.3%	43.8%	29.0%
2015	10	90.9	4.43	4.91	16.7%	6.9%	6.9%	41.9%	35.2%	34.6%

Holland continues to struggle this season. Through his first 12 starts, he has a 5.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.1%. To make matters worse, he has to face an A’s offense that has been on fire against left-handed pitching over the last week of play. Holland should be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Sonny Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		23.6	FPPG:		11.0
					Pitcher Rating:		71.5	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	4	89.5	4.56	4.15	16.5%	8.3%	8.9%	48.6%	29.2%	31.9%
2016	11	90.4	4.42	5.34	18.5%	9.6%	8.4%	53.4%	28.3%	32.6%
2015	31	99.3	3.80	2.73	20.3%	7.1%	9.7%	52.7%	30.7%	25.1%

Gray started to flash some form there for a while, but has just been able to show that consistency that we have seen from him in prior years. In 11 starts this season, he has a 4.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.5%. Even though he is pitching at home, the Rangers are an above-average offense with one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. I will continue to avoid Gray until he can turn things around.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have the sixth lowest team total on the board tonight. This is one of those situations where you can probably avoid both the pitcher (Sonny Gray) and the offense that he is facing. You can look at a few of these left-handed hitters, but I see them more as secondary plays.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.54 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.395	0.212	0.545	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,100
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.299	0.149	0.365	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.400	0.218	0.360	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000
4	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.325	0.215	0.331	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.446	0.261	0.394	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,100
6	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.352	0.149	0.294	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,200
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.280	0.081	0.317	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500
8	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.351	0.222	0.404	OF	$3,500	1B	$3,700
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.258	0.085	0.202	C	$2,000	C	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.345	0.177	0.357	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Stackability – NONE

Oakland

The A’s have a surprisingly low team total, but don’t let that fool you. Their matchup against Derek Holland is a great one, even if they have to face him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Holland has allowed a .348 wOBA and 18 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.4% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.02 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.96 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.258	0.095	0.155	OF	$3,100	OF	$2,700
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.340	0.167	0.337	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600
3	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.400	0.229	0.496	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,100
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.322	0.253	0.325	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700
5	Billy Butler	RIGHT	0.316	0.158	0.502	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,300
6	Josh Phegley	RIGHT	0.329	0.170	0.335	C	$3,000	C	$3,100
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.377	0.201	0.364	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,100
8	Jake Smolinski	RIGHT	0.371	0.242	0.488	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900
9	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.272	0.043	0.400	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.173	0.378	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 15th - Page Three

Houston at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss

Stackability – GPP

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – NONE

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cleveland at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota at LA Angels – 10:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Byung-Ho Park

Stackability – GPP

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Jefry Marte

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Stackability – NONE

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Josh Phegley

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Marcus Semien

Stackability – GPP

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