MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-19 04:33:59

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Miami at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Philadelphia
			Tom Koehler					Jeremy Hellickson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -110					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.342	17	18.2%	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.345	11	18.5%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.313	8	15.9%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.330	20	21.8%	4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Tom Koehler
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,200
				FPPG:		21.4	FPPG:		9.3
				Pitcher Rating:		47.5	Pitcher Rank:		21
L14 Days	2	4.59	24.0%	14.0%	8.2%	40.0%	46.7%	25.8%	0.00
2016	7	5.22	17.0%	12.6%	7.0%	40.2%	41.1%	25.5%	0.77
2015	31	4.67	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%	1.06

Koehler has been one of the top pitchers to pick on this season. In his seven starts, he has a 5.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17% and a walk rate of 12.6%. He has a low swinging strike rate and he gives up a fairly high hard hit contact rate. The good news is that he draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA (.290) against right-handed pitching. I wouldn’t consider Koehler in the all-day slate, but he offers decent value in the early-only slate that features the four daytime games.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Jeremy Hellickson
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,000
				FPPG:		30.6	FPPG:		16.0
				Pitcher Rating:		54.1	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	3	3.70	23.7%	7.9%	13.6%	45.1%	33.3%	38.5%	2.55
2016	8	3.49	24.9%	6.5%	12.3%	39.3%	38.5%	34.9%	1.85
2015	27	4.14	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%	1.36

Hellickson continues to pitch well for the Phillies, posting a 3.49 SIERA with a 24.9% strikeout rate in his first eight starts of the season. Even though he is a small underdog against the Marlins, I actually prefer him over his pitching counterpart, Tom Koehler. Hellickson has better upside and he comes into the game in much better form. His matchup against Miami is less than ideal though, as they are ranked eighth in team wOBA and fifth in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have a mediocre team total of 4.06 runs today. While they do hit right-handed pitching well as a team, they are facing Jeremy Hellickson, who has really pitched well this season. You can certainly look to the Marlins in the early-only slate, but there are better options in the all-day slate. Over the last two seasons, Hellickson has allowed a .345 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.3% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.378	0.229	0.308	2B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,400
2	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.298	0.129	0.350	C	$3,000	C	$3,300
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.368	0.156	0.391	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.373	0.295	0.321	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.297	0.125	0.459	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.360	0.249	0.349	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,500
7	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.254	0.109	0.350	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,300
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.316	0.081	0.209	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,500
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.138	0.020	0.000	P	$6,500	P	$6,200
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.155	0.304	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

The Phillies have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, but they draw a favorable matchup today against Tom Koehler. In addition to a high walk rate, Koehler has allowed a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .313 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Koehler has also given up 25 home runs in his last 38 starts.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.290 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.131 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.30 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	David Lough	LEFT	0.259	0.115	0.283	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,300
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.294	0.074	0.274	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,900
3	Andres Blanco	SWITCH	0.362	0.215	0.372	3B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,700
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.330	0.242	0.256	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,700
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.340	0.192	0.274	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,900
6	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.264	0.118	0.199	C	$2,200	C	$2,600
7	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.256	0.034	0.307	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500
8	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.243	0.000	0.346	P	$7,200	P	$7,000
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.252	0.115	0.328	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.289	0.123	0.293	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – David Lough, Cesar Hernandez, Andres Blanco, Ryan Howard, Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota at Detroit – 1:08 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Minnesota					Detroit
			Ricky Nolasco					Justin Verlander
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -155					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.336	5	17.2%	7.6%	SP vs. Left	0.269	10	22.1%	6.6%
SP vs. Right	0.340	5	22.8%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.310	11	22.0%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Ricky Nolasco
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,500
				FPPG:		26.3	FPPG:		14.2
				Pitcher Rating:		49.0	Pitcher Rank:		19
L14 Days	2	4.58	17.7%	9.8%	7.4%	45.9%	29.7%	35.1%	2.45
2016	7	3.73	20.4%	4.4%	8.7%	45.2%	38.5%	30.9%	1.42
2015	8	4.10	20.2%	8.1%	9.3%	40.7%	31.7%	26.0%	0.72

Nolasco has pitched better than most of us expected so far this season, but he’s a hard pitcher to trust in DFS. If you look at his splits, he has allowed a .336+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate over the last two seasons. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Tigers, who are a top ten offense against right-handed pitching. Nolasco is a large underdog on the road and the Tigers have the third highest team total on the board. The risk outweighs the potential reward here.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Justin Verlander
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,500
				FPPG:		30.6	FPPG:		16.6
				Pitcher Rating:		75.4	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	3	3.89	23.5%	8.6%	11.6%	41.5%	37.7%	24.5%	0.90
2016	8	3.81	24.4%	8.3%	10.4%	36.3%	45.2%	30.2%	1.45
2015	20	3.95	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%	0.88

Verlander grades out as the second best pitching option in the early-only slate. He has shown good form this season, posting a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.4% and a swinging strike rate over 10%. He has struggled with the long ball, but his 13.1% home run per fly ball rate is unsustainable when you look at his career averages. Verlander is a large favorite today against the Twins, who have the eighth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. He should have the platoon advantage over Minnesota, but that may not be a good thing since Verlander has reverse splits.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are not an offense to target in cash games, but you can certainly look their way in tournaments. As I mentioned above, Justin Verlander has allowed a much higher wOBA to right-handed hitters (.310) than he has to left-handed hitters (.269). Eduardo Nunez, Miguel Sano, and Byung Ho Park all hit from the right side of the plate and they all have a .366+ wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.2% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.63 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.93 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.321	0.108	0.219	1B	$2,600	1B	$2,900
2	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.367	0.137	0.320	SS	$3,000	3B/SS	$3,200
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.366	0.230	0.308	OF	$3,500	3B/OF	$3,600
4	Byung Ho Park	RIGHT	0.395	0.340	0.354	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,500
5	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.314	0.193	0.310	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,100
6	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.310	0.192	0.281	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,500
7	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.295	0.180	0.270	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.258	0.074	0.339	C	$2,400	C	$2,200
9	Danny Santana	SWITCH	0.235	0.084	0.218	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.171	0.291	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Miguel Sano, Byung Ho Park

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

The Tigers have the third highest team total overall and the highest total of the eight teams playing in the early-only slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Ricky Nolasco, who has not been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate. The top seven batters in the Tigers’ lineup are all worth a look here, especially if you are playing in the early-only slate.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.5% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.44 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.57 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.335	0.140	0.397	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,000
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.356	0.231	0.380	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,200
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.401	0.192	0.398	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,400
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.299	0.141	0.303	C	$3,200	1B	$3,600
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.315	0.167	0.416	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,700
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.342	0.205	0.220	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
7	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.305	0.093	0.603	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SWITCH	0.331	0.242	0.294	C	$2,600	C	$3,100
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.283	0.055	0.195	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.163	0.356	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Kansas City – 2:15 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Boston					Kansas City
			Steven Wright					Ian Kennedy
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -110					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.286	5	16.9%	9.8%	SP vs. Left	0.337	20	25.2%	8.5%
SP vs. Right	0.304	9	20.2%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.332	17	23.1%	6.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Steven Wright
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,100
				FPPG:		37.1	FPPG:		20.3
				Pitcher Rating:		38.1	Pitcher Rank:		27
L14 Days	3	4.25	21.1%	9.2%	10.1%	38.5%	36.5%	24.5%	0.47
2016	7	4.18	21.9%	9.6%	11.3%	40.7%	35.8%	28.0%	0.39
2015	9	4.60	16.8%	8.7%	9.3%	43.2%	43.2%	33.9%	1.49

Wright is always an intriguing option in DFS for two reasons:

1. He has a strikeout rate above 20%.
2. He pitches deep into games – averaging 107.8 pitches per start this season.

If you look solely at his SIERA and his walk rate, Wright wouldn’t stand out as a great fantasy option, but he is averaging 38 fantasy points per game on FanDuel this season (27 on DraftKings). He may give up a few runs in the process, but he is going to strike batters out along the way and he will typically give you at least six innings. I don’t love the matchup or the price point for Wright today, but keep what I said above in mind the next time he takes the mound.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Ian Kennedy
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$8,100
				FPPG:		36.6	FPPG:		19.1
				Pitcher Rating:		66.7	Pitcher Rank:		10
L14 Days	2	4.28	22.6%	9.4%	7.3%	33.3%	52.8%	27.8%	2.03
2016	7	4.14	23.0%	9.0%	10.1%	32.8%	50.0%	31.6%	1.22
2015	30	3.61	24.4%	7.3%	10.3%	38.5%	38.7%	35.2%	1.66

Kennedy has pitched fairly well this season, posting a 4.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. His biggest problem over the last few seasons has been allowing too many home runs, but a lot of that is negated when he pitches in Kauffman Stadium. He makes an interesting GPP play today against the Red Sox. I don’t ever consider pitchers against Boston for cash games, but Kennedy is a sneaky GPP option at his price point.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox streak of 11+ hits came to an end last night, but it’s still safe to say that their offense is in the midst of a hot streak. They average more runs per game than any team in the majors this season. They come into today’s game with a slightly below-average team total of 3.94 runs. While I don’t love the ballpark, Ian Kennedy has allowed 37 home runs in his last 37 starts.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.366 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.97 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.345	0.182	0.345	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,200
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.354	0.156	0.325	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,500
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.331	0.110	0.434	SS	$4,600	SS	$5,300
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.427	0.342	0.469	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,400
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.323	0.154	0.482	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.372	0.207	0.467	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,600
7	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.360	0.263	0.536	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.285	0.146	0.286	C	$2,300	C	$2,800
9	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.312	0.108	0.250	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.345	0.185	0.399	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City

The Royals are small favorites today against Steven Wright and the Red Sox. They have the 12th highest team total on the board. Over the course of the last two seasons, Wright has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. The matchup may not be ideal, but there are a number of good values in the Royals’ lineup today. Their production has to come from somewhere, right?

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.130 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.66 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.268	0.061	0.266	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,900
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	0.127	0.422	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.389	0.186	0.445	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,300
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.345	0.224	0.262	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,900
5	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.342	0.165	0.322	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.327	0.194	0.280	C	$2,800	C	$3,000
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.296	0.175	0.309	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,300
8	Omar Infante	RIGHT	0.239	0.093	0.213	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,000
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.290	0.123	0.166	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.150	0.298	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Eric Hosmer

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez

Stackability – GPP

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Oakland
			Martin Perez					Rich Hill
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK -155					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.246	1	26.4%	10.0%	SP vs. Left	0.209	0	24.6%	3.3%
SP vs. Right	0.329	5	11.1%	9.2%	SP vs. Right	0.256	4	32.2%	10.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Martin Perez
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,800
				FPPG:		23.4	FPPG:		11.7
				Pitcher Rating:		30.9	Pitcher Rank:		30
L14 Days	3	4.90	19.2%	15.1%	8.1%	63.8%	27.7%	37.5%	0.00
2016	8	5.24	14.3%	13.3%	8.3%	56.6%	25.7%	28.6%	0.57
2015	14	4.06	14.2%	7.1%	7.5%	59.9%	22.1%	22.7%	0.34

Perez is one of the least appealing fantasy options in all of baseball. Through eight starts, he has a 5.24 SIERA with a walk rate (13.3%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (14.3%). He gives up a lot of hard contact and he comes into this game as a sizable underdog on the road. Of the 30 pitchers taking the mound tonight, Perez has the lowest rating. He should be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Rich Hill
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$8,000
				FPPG:		38.9	FPPG:		20.4
				Pitcher Rating:		78.3	Pitcher Rank:		3
L14 Days	2	4.56	24.0%	14.0%	11.2%	37.9%	37.9%	16.7%	0.00
2016	8	3.54	28.7%	10.8%	10.7%	47.6%	33.3%	29.3%	0.41
2015	4	2.29	34.0%	4.7%	11.3%	48.4%	35.5%	22.2%	0.62

Hill hasn’t been as sharp in his last couple of starts, but he still owns a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.7% this season. If you are playing in the early-only slate, it really comes down to two options for cash games – Hill and Verlander. Hill’s matchup against the Rangers is mediocre at best, as they are ranked tenth in team wOBA and 19th in team ISO against left-handed pitching. The upside is certainly there for Hill and it doesn’t hurt that he is pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have the seventh lowest team total on the board. They aren’t a terrible offense against left-handed pitching, but they draw a difficult matchup against Rich Hill, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 wOBA in his last 12 starts. Adrian Beltre is worth a look here, but the rest of the Rangers’ lineup can be avoided in this difficult matchup.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.328 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.139 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.4% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.68 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.340	0.178	0.348	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,800
2	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.333	0.145	0.310	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,100
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.281	0.026	0.324	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.394	0.228	0.361	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000
5	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.302	0.144	0.218	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,100
6	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.291	0.142	0.318	OF	$3,400	1B	$2,700
7	Drew Stubbs	RIGHT	0.253	0.088	0.472	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,000
8	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.175	0.000	0.363	C	$2,200	C	$2,400
9	Hanser Alberto	RIGHT	0.131	0.000	0.204	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.278	0.106	0.324	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre

Stackability – NONE

Oakland

The A’s have had two players hit three home runs in a single game in the last three days. Danny Valencia accomplished the task on Sunday and Khris Davis did the same last night. They draw a great matchup today against Martin Perez, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter in baseball. All of the right-handed bats in the A’s lineup are in play at home.

Athletics Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.294 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.152 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.7% (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.90 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.290	0.107	0.336	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800
2	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.332	0.093	0.269	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600
3	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.272	0.117	0.456	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.383	0.208	0.609	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,700
5	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.295	0.206	0.321	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300
6	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.273	0.094	0.154	C	$2,300	C	$2,500
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.386	0.205	0.418	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,900
8	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.280	0.044	0.376	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,800
9	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.161	0.018	0.272	3B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.121	0.357	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Danny Valencia, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Coco Crisp, Billy Burns, Marcus Semien

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					Pittsburgh
			Julio Teheran					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -190					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.382	22	14.6%	11.7%	SP vs. Left	0.268	3	26.4%	9.6%
SP vs. Right	0.251	10	26.1%	5.7%	SP vs. Right	0.301	20	26.3%	9.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Julio Teheran
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$8,400
				FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:		15.9
				Pitcher Rating:		43.7	Pitcher Rank:		24
L14 Days	2	4.36	20.0%	10.0%	8.6%	48.5%	33.3%	38.2%	0.00
2016	8	4.08	21.7%	8.4%	8.8%	42.6%	41.9%	38.6%	0.93
2015	33	4.24	20.3%	8.7%	10.8%	39.5%	36.2%	31.4%	1.21

There are very few times during the season when I actively target Teheran. The matchup has to be favorable and he has to be pitching at home. He has struggled on the road throughout his career. He draws a difficult matchup against the Pirates, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Teheran should be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%	HR/9
Francisco Liriano
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$10,400
				FPPG:		28.4	FPPG:		13.9
				Pitcher Rating:		96.6	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	2	3.35	31.5%	11.1%	15.3%	38.7%	41.9%	38.7%	2.31
2016	7	4.11	25.6%	12.8%	11.5%	51.5%	33.0%	37.6%	1.82
2015	31	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%	0.72

Liriano is the top ranked pitching option on the board this evening. He hasn’t had a spectacular season thus far, but he appears to be trending in the right direction. He always boasts an elite strikeout rate, he has just been walking a few more batters than normal this season. He may draw the best possible matchup for a pitcher, as the Braves are ranked 28th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. There are some other decent options tonight, but I have a hard time going away from Liriano in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have the worst offense in baseball. They also draw the toughest matchup on the board tonight. It should come as no surprise that they have the lowest team total on the board. Atlanta’s bats should be avoided against Francisco Liriano, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.232 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.043 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.9% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.24 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.98 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.282	0.054	0.270	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.233	0.045	0.226	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,800
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.316	0.110	0.400	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,400
4	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.283	0.095	0.227	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,200
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.297	0.073	0.249	C	$2,200	C	$2,500
6	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.284	0.105	0.436	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,300
7	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.192	0.125	0.323	2B	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,700
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.241	0.046	0.210	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,300
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.098	0.000	0.000	P	$7,700	P	$8,400
	Team Averages	—	0.247	0.073	0.260	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a better matchup than their team total suggests. They are only projected to score 4.02 runs, which is right around the average of the 30 teams in action tonight. As I mentioned above, Teheran does not pitch well on the road. He has really struggled with left-handed hitters, allowing a .382 wOBA and 22 home runs to batters from that side of the plate.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.335 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.141 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.03 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.02 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.350	0.170	0.380	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,100
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.371	0.201	0.398	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,200
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.335	0.147	0.405	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200
4	Jung Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.363	0.189	0.443	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,200
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.328	0.084	0.264	C	$2,800	C	$2,800
6	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.297	0.158	0.601	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.306	0.103	0.330	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,200
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.264	0.066	0.229	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,500
9	Francisco Liriano	LEFT	0.255	0.098	0.147	P	$10,000	P	$10,400
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.135	0.355	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 18th

Miami at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – David Lough, Cesar Hernandez, Andres Blanco, Ryan Howard, Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota at Detroit – 1:08 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Miguel Sano, Byung Ho Park

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Boston at Kansas City – 2:15 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Eric Hosmer

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Kendrys Morales, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez

Stackability – GPP

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre

Stackability – NONE

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Danny Valencia, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Coco Crisp, Billy Burns, Marcus Semien

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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