MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 25th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

NY Mets at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

NY Mets Washington
Article Image Steven Matz Article Image Tanner Roark
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -105 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.323 0 23.2% 12.2% SP vs. Left 0.330 10 15.5% 8.8%
SP vs. Right 0.259 7 24.9% 3.4% SP vs. Right 0.305 10 19.3% 5.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Matz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $9,600
FPPG: 41.0 FPPG: 21.5
Pitcher Rating: 73.8 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 2.68 2.77 27.1% 2.1% 12.4% 51.5% 36.4% 26.5%
2016 7 2.90 2.81 25.9% 4.8% 8.9% 54.2% 26.2% 23.9%
2015 6 3.63 2.27 22.8% 6.7% 8.3% 45.5% 33.7% 21.2%

Matz has been terrific in his first seven starts of the season, posting a 2.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.9%. He is one of the few high strikeout pitchers in baseball with a swinging strike rate under 9%. Basically, he throws a lot of strikes early in the count and then gets hitters to chase once he gets them into favorable counts. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Nationals, who are ranked first in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Given the matchup and the fact that this game is on the road, Matz is best suited as a GPP play today.

Tanner Roark
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,700
FPPG: 34.3 FPPG: 18.2
Pitcher Rating: 64.9 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 3.47 6.17 22.2% 9.3% 7.2% 62.9% 17.1% 31.4%
2016 9 3.78 2.89 22.4% 9.3% 8.0% 54.3% 23.8% 22.2%
2015 12 4.16 4.38 15.0% 5.6% 7.1% 47.8% 30.6% 26.3%

Roark has really improved this season, posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.4% in his first nine starts. His swinging strike rate hasn’t increased enough to justify the major increase in strikeout rate though, so don’t be surprised if it ends up below 20% when the season is over. Roark is an elite ground pitcher that gets to face the Mets at home in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. He seems a bit expensive today given the fact that the Mets are ranked second in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets come into today’s game with the eighth lowest team total on the board. While they hit right-handed pitching well as a team, their matchup against Tanner Roark is mediocre at best. The one area to potentially exploit this matchup is with left-handed hitters. Roark has allowed a .330 wOBA and ten home runs to lefties over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.372 0.223 0.281 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
2 David Wright RIGHT 0.335 0.137 0.235 3B $2,600 3B $3,600
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.396 0.286 0.379 OF $3,900 OF $3,800
4 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.387 0.276 0.463 OF $4,400 OF $5,200
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.335 0.181 0.342 2B $2,500 2B $3,700
6 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.323 0.162 0.272 SS $3,000 SS $3,100
7 Eric Campbell RIGHT 0.282 0.096 0.273 3B $2,000 1B/3B $3,000
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.223 0.119 0.188 C $2,000 C $2,300
9 Steven Matz LEFT 0.236 0.042 0.441 P $9,900 P $9,600
Team Averages 0.321 0.169 0.319

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Neil Walker

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals may be slight favorites today, but they are projected to score the ninth fewest runs of the 30 teams in action. They hit left-handed pitching better than anyone, but they draw a very difficult matchup against Steven Matz. Over the last two seasons, Matz has held right-handed hitters to a .259 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.295 0.158 0.372 OF $2,400 OF $3,200
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.377 0.305 0.320 OF $2,900 OF $3,800
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.303 0.108 0.386 2B $3,900 2B $3,700
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.421 0.348 0.389 1B $3,300 1B $4,200
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.351 0.091 0.456 3B $4,200 3B $3,800
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.285 0.144 0.333 C $3,400 C $3,100
7 Chris Heisey RIGHT 0.299 0.212 0.418 OF $2,100 OF $2,400
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.294 0.115 0.243 SS $2,500 SS $2,400
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.252 0.000 0.000 P $8,300 P $8,700
Team Averages 0.320 0.165 0.324

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Michael Taylor, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Philadelphia Detroit
Article Image Aaron Nola Article Image Anibal Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -125 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.299 7 18.0% 7.1% SP vs. Left 0.311 15 22.9% 10.4%
SP vs. Right 0.257 9 28.3% 4.1% SP vs. Right 0.370 23 18.3% 6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $10,700
FPPG: 39.0 FPPG: 22.7
Pitcher Rating: 63.4 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 2.59 1.93 25.4% 5.1% 13.4% 65.8% 18.4% 20.0%
2016 9 2.68 2.85 27.2% 4.7% 10.5% 56.8% 24.5% 22.0%
2015 13 3.66 3.59 21.4% 6.0% 8.6% 47.6% 32.4% 28.8%

Nola has been everyone’s favorite shiny new toy this season. He has really pitched well in his first nine starts, posting a 2.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.2%. He is coming off of a subpar outing against the Braves, but luckily three of the five runs that he allowed were unearned. He draws a much tougher test today against the Tigers, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against right-handed pitching. The one plus is that Nola should have the platoon advantage over six or seven of the Tigers’ hitters, but I see him strictly as a GPP play on the road.

Anibal Sanchez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,600
FPPG: 23.2 FPPG: 10.3
Pitcher Rating: 67.3 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 3 5.35 6.88 13.3% 9.3% 6.7% 36.8% 45.6% 24.1%
2016 9 4.78 6.23 20.0% 12.1% 8.7% 39.0% 43.3% 28.5%
2015 25 4.03 4.99 20.9% 7.4% 9.3% 40.0% 39.1% 27.1%

Sanchez is an interesting value play in the early-only and the all-day slates. He is listed as a favorite, he is pitching at home, and he is facing a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 27th in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Sanchez has not pitched well at all this season, but he does still boast a strikeout rate of 20%. Given the matchup and his depressed price, this could be a good time to buy low on Sanchez.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies may not have a good offense, but they do draw a nice matchup against Anibal Sanchez. If you aren’t targeting Sanchez today, then you might as well target a Phillies’ bat or two. They have the 16th highest team total on the board. Over the last two seasons, Sanchez has allowed 38 home runs – 15 to left-handed hitters and 23 to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.358 0.135 0.414 OF $3,600 OF $4,000
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.291 0.118 0.335 SS $2,600 SS $3,100
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.342 0.192 0.275 3B $2,800 3B $3,500
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.280 0.286 0.384 1B $2,000 1B/C $3,400
5 Ryan Howard LEFT 0.322 0.234 0.190 1B $2,300 1B $3,200
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.279 0.126 0.409 C $2,700 C $2,600
7 Andres Blanco SWITCH 0.352 0.209 0.199 3B $2,100 2B/SS $2,600
8 Tyler Goeddel RIGHT 0.326 0.118 0.426 OF $2,000 OF $3,400
9 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.243 0.108 0.177 OF $2,100 OF $2,500
Team Averages 0.310 0.170 0.312

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – GPP

Detroit

The Tigers have a difficult matchup on paper, but they get to face a somewhat inexperienced pitcher at home. Aaron Nola has been terrific this season, but the Tigers come into the game with the seventh highest team total on the board. Cameron Maybin, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, and Victor Martinez are my favorite targets here, as they all have a .355+ wOBA over the last 14 days of play.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.315 0.088 0.560 OF $3,200 OF $3,400
2 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.366 0.247 0.511 OF $4,000 OF $4,000
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.419 0.222 0.560 1B $4,400 1B $4,600
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.302 0.141 0.358 C $3,400 1B $3,100
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.318 0.171 0.349 3B $3,500 3B $3,600
6 Steven Moya LEFT 0.279 0.128 0.294 OF $2,200 OF $2,600
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.253 0.075 0.209 C $2,400 C $2,100
8 Mike Aviles RIGHT 0.234 0.055 0.126 2B $2,000 3B/OF $2,000
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.277 0.055 0.171 SS $2,200 SS $2,200
Team Averages 0.307 0.131 0.349

Elite Plays – Cameron Maybin, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Kansas City Minnesota
Article Image Dillon Gee Article Image Tyler Duffey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN -110 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.410 6 12.4% 10.1% SP vs. Left 0.321 2 25.8% 7.7%
SP vs. Right 0.266 3 20.6% 4.1% SP vs. Right 0.294 5 16.5% 6.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dillon Gee
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,300
FPPG: 17.0 FPPG: 9.0
Pitcher Rating: 45.8 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 3.79 2.87 20.3% 7.8% 8.8% 51.2% 27.9% 17.8%
2016 2 4.07 2.90 19.7% 9.1% 10.1% 44.3% 34.1% 29.4%
2015 7 4.41 5.90 13.7% 6.0% 9.4% 51.0% 29.4% 33.6%

Gee is making his third start of the season and so far, so good. He wasn’t expected to be a starter heading into the year, but he has worked himself into the rotation with a 3.79 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 20.3%. I’m still not completely sold on Gee as a long-term starter, but he draws a favorable matchup today against the Twins, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. You can certainly look to Gee on multi-pitcher sites, especially on DraftKings where he is priced at only $5,300. However, Anibal Sanchez is my value pitcher of choice in the early slates.

Tyler Duffey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $7,100
FPPG: 28.8 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 56.0 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 4.19 4.26 14.6% 3.6% 6.1% 51.2% 34.9% 29.6%
2016 5 3.78 3.30 19.5% 4.7% 8.4% 46.8% 34.0% 29.5%
2015 10 3.83 3.10 21.9% 8.3% 9.8% 49.7% 30.9% 26.6%

Duffey has pitched fairly well this season, posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.5% in his first five starts. He showed some decent strikeout upside a year ago and he has been able to carry that into 2016. The issue that I have with him today is his matchup. The Royals’ offense finally appears to be heating up and even through their early season struggles, they still have the ninth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have scored 17 combined runs in the first two games of this series. That’s obviously too small of a sample size to say that their offense is back, but it’s at least encouraging. They draw a decent matchup today against Tyler Duffey, who has allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Even though he hits from the right side of the plate, Whit Merrifield remains an elite value play as long as he is batting second.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.269 0.061 0.263 SS $2,900 SS $3,500
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.426 0.231 0.357 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,400
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.334 0.133 0.399 OF $3,600 OF $4,000
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.387 0.192 0.301 1B $4,000 1B $4,200
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.336 0.199 0.437 C $2,700 C $3,700
6 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.323 0.206 0.559 OF $2,700 OF $3,000
7 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.317 0.162 0.244 3B $2,100 3B $2,700
8 Omar Infante RIGHT 0.242 0.094 0.265 2B $2,500 2B $2,700
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.242 0.088 0.000 C $2,000 C $2,100
Team Averages 0.320 0.152 0.314

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Paulo Orlando

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota

The Twins have the ninth highest team total on the board today. They draw a favorable matchup against Dillon Gee, who may not be cut out to be a starter in the long run. Only time will tell, but the Twins are a sneaky offense to target in both cash games and GPPs. Over the last two seasons, Gee has allowed a .410 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.353 0.136 0.238 SS $3,000 3B/SS $4,000
2 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.305 0.184 0.151 2B $2,500 2B $3,700
3 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.319 0.113 0.287 1B $2,500 1B $3,700
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.360 0.232 0.337 OF $3,600 OF $4,500
5 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.293 0.162 0.516 OF $2,300 OF $2,000
6 Byung Ho Park RIGHT 0.352 0.287 0.284 1B $3,000 1B $3,900
7 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.303 0.143 0.598 SS $2,000 SS $2,900
8 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.268 0.079 0.357 C $2,300 C $2,600
9 Danny Santana SWITCH 0.243 0.084 0.282 OF $3,100 OF $2,800
Team Averages 0.311 0.158 0.339

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier (FD), Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Byung-Ho Park

Stackability – GPP

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Chicago Cubs St. Louis
Article Image Jake Arrieta Article Image Carlos Martinez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -170 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.215 4 28.8% 7.5% SP vs. Left 0.334 14 20.6% 10.4%
SP vs. Right 0.225 8 25.5% 5.0% SP vs. Right 0.261 4 25.5% 6.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $12,300 Salary: $13,100
FPPG: 49.7 FPPG: 28.8
Pitcher Rating: 87.6 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 2.59 1.80 33.9% 7.1% 8.7% 43.8% 34.4% 25.0%
2016 9 3.23 1.29 26.7% 8.5% 10.1% 55.0% 25.2% 23.0%
2015 33 2.75 1.77 27.1% 5.5% 11.1% 56.2% 22.8% 22.1%

After dominating the Giants in San Francisco, Arrieta proved once again that he can dominate any team in any ballpark. Through his first nine starts of the season, he has a 3.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.7%. The best part is that Joe Maddon says that Arrieta will only improve moving forward, as they will look to lower his walk rate. He is the premier pitching option in every slate that he is available in. While the matchup against the Cardinals does give me a little pause (ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching), Arrieta is an elite play in all league formats.

Carlos Martinez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $6,600
FPPG: 26.7 FPPG: 13.5
Pitcher Rating: 68.9 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 5.47 7.20 10.9% 13.0% 4.1% 59.4% 21.9% 36.4%
2016 8 4.34 3.56 17.9% 8.7% 7.7% 52.2% 31.9% 32.6%
2015 29 3.44 3.01 24.4% 8.3% 10.5% 54.5% 25.5% 27.6%

Martinez is coming off of two rough outings in a row. Those starts have bumped his SIERA down to 4.34 for the season and his strikeout rate is well below 20%. The two biggest issues for Martinez have been walks and his inability to get left-handed hitters out. That doesn’t bode well for his matchup today against the Cubs. They are projected to have five lefties in their lineup that all have at least a .325 wOBA against right-handed pitching. With Jake Arrieta pitching opposite him, Martinez is an easy fade today.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs put on a hitting clinic last night against the Cardinals. They will look to do the same today against the struggling Carlos Martinez. As I mentioned above, he has really struggled against left-handed hitters – allowing a .334 wOBA and 14 home runs over the last two seasons. I don’t love paying a premium for the Cubs’ hitters in this ballpark, but all of the lefties are in play here.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.348 0.182 0.360 OF $4,100 OF $4,400
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.338 0.145 0.310 OF $3,300 OF $3,700
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.378 0.212 0.331 3B $4,300 3B/OF $4,800
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.265 0.221 1B $3,800 1B $4,300
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.351 0.167 0.466 2B $4,000 2B $4,300
6 Tommy La Stella LEFT 0.367 0.198 0.233 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,000
7 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.325 0.151 0.377 C $2,600 C $3,000
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.322 0.148 0.270 SS $3,000 SS $3,400
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.191 0.125 0.262 P $12,300 P $13,100
Team Averages 0.334 0.177 0.314

Elite Plays – Jason Heyward, Tommy La Stella

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Miguel Montero

Stackability – GPP

St. Louis

The Cardinals may have one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but that likely won’t be enough to make a difference against Jake Arrieta. St. Louis has the lowest team total on the board at only 3.09 runs. Over the last two seasons, Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .225 wOBA. That’s just filthy.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.392 0.257 0.355 3B $4,000 3B $3,500
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.414 0.265 0.252 SS $3,200 SS $2,700
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.353 0.176 0.263 OF $2,600 OF $2,700
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.350 0.167 0.391 OF $3,700 OF $3,300
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.332 0.186 0.438 1B $2,700 1B $2,400
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.318 0.101 0.319 C $2,900 C $2,600
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.369 0.268 0.384 OF $2,900 OF $2,700
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.328 0.139 0.393 2B $2,600 2B $2,700
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.219 0.040 0.000 P $8,500 P $6,600
Team Averages 0.342 0.178 0.311

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

LA Angels Texas
Article Image Hector Santiago Article Image Colby Lewis
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX -115 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.271 4 19.4% 7.5% SP vs. Left 0.324 18 14.6% 5.4%
SP vs. Right 0.329 35 20.8% 9.6% SP vs. Right 0.303 18 19.8% 4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,000
FPPG: 27.6 FPPG: 14.1
Pitcher Rating: 33.7 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 3 5.33 4.80 14.5% 9.7% 8.2% 36.4% 52.3% 37.8%
2016 9 4.51 3.93 18.8% 8.7% 9.6% 40.9% 46.1% 33.3%
2015 32 4.50 3.59 20.9% 9.2% 8.5% 29.9% 53.6% 33.6%

Santiago got off to a hot start this season, but has since cooled off. He now owns a 4.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.8%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed 39 home runs in his last 41 starts. While a high home run rate isn’t the end all be all, it is when you don’t have a high strikeout rate to go with it. In a difficult matchup against the Rangers, Santiago can be avoided in all league formats.

Colby Lewis
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,100
FPPG: 32.3 FPPG: 17.5
Pitcher Rating: 35.4 Pitcher Rank: 28
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 3 3.09 1.71 23.0% 1.4% 8.3% 45.5% 34.5% 32.1%
2016 9 4.10 2.75 19.0% 5.2% 8.4% 37.0% 42.8% 36.6%
2015 33 4.43 4.66 16.5% 4.9% 8.2% 33.7% 44.2% 33.3%

Lewis has a 2.75 ERA on the season. How on Earth is this possible? A BABIP of .261 will certainly help. So will a left on-base percentage of 92.3. To put it kindly, those numbers are not sustainable over the course of an entire season. I do expect regression to hit and I do expect it to hit hard. That may not happen today, but it will happen. I never like to target pitchers that have good numbers because they have been, for lack of a better word, lucky.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels’ offense has been a disappointment this season, but they come into today’s game with the fourth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Colby Lewis and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Over the last two seasons, Lewis has allowed 36 home runs – 18 to lefties and 18 to righties.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.345 0.097 0.325 3B $3,400 3B $3,500
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.330 0.162 0.339 OF $3,600 OF $4,100
3 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.417 0.291 0.445 OF $4,900 OF $5,300
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.333 0.217 0.395 1B $3,600 1B $4,200
5 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.325 0.177 0.296 1B $2,900 1B $3,300
6 Johnny Giavotella LEFT 0.307 0.114 0.377 2B $3,200 2B $3,300
7 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.269 0.029 0.199 OF $2,500 OF $3,000
8 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 C $2,400
9 Gregorio Petit RIGHT 0.280 0.067 0.296 SS $2,400 SS $2,900
Team Averages 0.290 0.128 0.297

Elite Plays – Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Johnny Giavotella, C.J. Cron

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Texas

The Rangers are small favorites in this matchup and if the Angels have the fourth highest team total, that means the Rangers are one of the top offenses to target. In fact, they have the second highest team projection at 4.84 runs. Hector Santiago is a fly-ball pitcher with a declining strikeout rate. That is music to hitter’s ears. Load up on the right-handed bats in this lineup.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.330 0.172 0.121 2B $3,500 2B $3,900
2 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.358 0.207 0.396 OF $3,900 OF $5,000
3 Prince Fielder LEFT 0.299 0.140 0.302 1B $2,900 1B $3,400
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.387 0.223 0.261 3B $3,200 3B $4,400
5 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.271 0.022 0.404 OF $3,100 OF $3,600
6 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.333 0.140 0.338 SS $3,300 SS $3,700
7 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.340 0.207 0.301 OF $2,300 1B/OF $3,300
8 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.196 0.021 0.269 C $2,300 C $2,800
9 Hanser Alberto RIGHT 0.136 0.000 0.160 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,400
Team Averages 0.294 0.126 0.284

Elite Plays – Ian Desmond, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus, Ryan Rua

Stackability – Cash & GPP


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious