MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 25th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
NY Mets at Washington – 1:05 PM ET
NY Mets | Washington |
| | | |
LEFT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
WAS -105 | 7.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.323 | 0 | 23.2% | 12.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.330 | 10 | 15.5% | 8.8% |
SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 7 | 24.9% | 3.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.305 | 10 | 19.3% | 5.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Steven Matz |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $9,600 |
FPPG: | 41.0 | FPPG: | 21.5 |
Pitcher Rating: | 73.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 6 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 2.68 | 2.77 | 27.1% | 2.1% | 12.4% | 51.5% | 36.4% | 26.5% |
2016 | 7 | 2.90 | 2.81 | 25.9% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 54.2% | 26.2% | 23.9% |
2015 | 6 | 3.63 | 2.27 | 22.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 45.5% | 33.7% | 21.2% |
Matz has been terrific in his first seven starts of the season, posting a 2.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.9%. He is one of the few high strikeout pitchers in baseball with a swinging strike rate under 9%. Basically, he throws a lot of strikes early in the count and then gets hitters to chase once he gets them into favorable counts. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Nationals, who are ranked first in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Given the matchup and the fact that this game is on the road, Matz is best suited as a GPP play today.
Tanner Roark |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $8,700 |
FPPG: | 34.3 | FPPG: | 18.2 |
Pitcher Rating: | 64.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 14 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 3.47 | 6.17 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 62.9% | 17.1% | 31.4% |
2016 | 9 | 3.78 | 2.89 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 54.3% | 23.8% | 22.2% |
2015 | 12 | 4.16 | 4.38 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 47.8% | 30.6% | 26.3% |
Roark has really improved this season, posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.4% in his first nine starts. His swinging strike rate hasn’t increased enough to justify the major increase in strikeout rate though, so don’t be surprised if it ends up below 20% when the season is over. Roark is an elite ground pitcher that gets to face the Mets at home in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. He seems a bit expensive today given the fact that the Mets are ranked second in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets come into today’s game with the eighth lowest team total on the board. While they hit right-handed pitching well as a team, their matchup against is mediocre at best. The one area to potentially exploit this matchup is with left-handed hitters. Roark has allowed a .330 wOBA and ten home runs to lefties over the last two seasons.
- Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.96 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.72 (23 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.223 | 0.281 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,000 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.137 | 0.235 | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,600 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.396 | 0.286 | 0.379 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $3,800 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.276 | 0.463 | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,200 |
5 | | SWITCH | 0.335 | 0.181 | 0.342 | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,700 |
6 | | SWITCH | 0.323 | 0.162 | 0.272 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,100 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.096 | 0.273 | 3B | $2,000 | 1B/3B | $3,000 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.223 | 0.119 | 0.188 | C | $2,000 | C | $2,300 |
9 | | LEFT | 0.236 | 0.042 | 0.441 | P | $9,900 | P | $9,600 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.321 | 0.169 | 0.319 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – NONE
Washington
The Nationals may be slight favorites today, but they are projected to score the ninth fewest runs of the 30 teams in action. They hit left-handed pitching better than anyone, but they draw a very difficult matchup against . Over the last two seasons, Matz has held right-handed hitters to a .259 wOBA.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.362 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.218 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.7% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.33 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.78 (22 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.158 | 0.372 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,200 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.305 | 0.320 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,800 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.303 | 0.108 | 0.386 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $3,700 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.421 | 0.348 | 0.389 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,200 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.091 | 0.456 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $3,800 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.144 | 0.333 | C | $3,400 | C | $3,100 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.212 | 0.418 | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,400 |
8 | | SWITCH | 0.294 | 0.115 | 0.243 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $2,400 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.252 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $8,300 | P | $8,700 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.320 | 0.165 | 0.324 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , , , ,
Stackability – NONE
Philadelphia at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET
Philadelphia | Detroit |
| | | |
RIGHT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
DET -125 | 8.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.299 | 7 | 18.0% | 7.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.311 | 15 | 22.9% | 10.4% |
SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 9 | 28.3% | 4.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.370 | 23 | 18.3% | 6.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Aaron Nola |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $10,700 |
FPPG: | 39.0 | FPPG: | 22.7 |
Pitcher Rating: | 63.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 16 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 2.59 | 1.93 | 25.4% | 5.1% | 13.4% | 65.8% | 18.4% | 20.0% |
2016 | 9 | 2.68 | 2.85 | 27.2% | 4.7% | 10.5% | 56.8% | 24.5% | 22.0% |
2015 | 13 | 3.66 | 3.59 | 21.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 47.6% | 32.4% | 28.8% |
Nola has been everyone’s favorite shiny new toy this season. He has really pitched well in his first nine starts, posting a 2.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.2%. He is coming off of a subpar outing against the Braves, but luckily three of the five runs that he allowed were unearned. He draws a much tougher test today against the Tigers, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against right-handed pitching. The one plus is that Nola should have the platoon advantage over six or seven of the Tigers’ hitters, but I see him strictly as a GPP play on the road.
Anibal Sanchez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $7,600 |
FPPG: | 23.2 | FPPG: | 10.3 |
Pitcher Rating: | 67.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 10 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 3 | 5.35 | 6.88 | 13.3% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 36.8% | 45.6% | 24.1% |
2016 | 9 | 4.78 | 6.23 | 20.0% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 39.0% | 43.3% | 28.5% |
2015 | 25 | 4.03 | 4.99 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 40.0% | 39.1% | 27.1% |
Sanchez is an interesting value play in the early-only and the all-day slates. He is listed as a favorite, he is pitching at home, and he is facing a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 27th in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Sanchez has not pitched well at all this season, but he does still boast a strikeout rate of 20%. Given the matchup and his depressed price, this could be a good time to buy low on Sanchez.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
The Phillies may not have a good offense, but they do draw a nice matchup against . If you aren’t targeting Sanchez today, then you might as well target a Phillies’ bat or two. They have the 16th highest team total on the board. Over the last two seasons, Sanchez has allowed 38 home runs – 15 to left-handed hitters and 23 to right-handed hitters.
- Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.286 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.128 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.20 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.10 (16 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.135 | 0.414 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,000 |
2 | | SWITCH | 0.291 | 0.118 | 0.335 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,100 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.192 | 0.275 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,500 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.286 | 0.384 | 1B | $2,000 | 1B/C | $3,400 |
5 | | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.234 | 0.190 | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,200 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.126 | 0.409 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,600 |
7 | | SWITCH | 0.352 | 0.209 | 0.199 | 3B | $2,100 | 2B/SS | $2,600 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.118 | 0.426 | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,400 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.243 | 0.108 | 0.177 | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,500 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.310 | 0.170 | 0.312 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – GPP
Detroit
The Tigers have a difficult matchup on paper, but they get to face a somewhat inexperienced pitcher at home. has been terrific this season, but the Tigers come into the game with the seventh highest team total on the board. , , , and are my favorite targets here, as they all have a .355+ wOBA over the last 14 days of play.
- Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.338 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.4% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.40 (7 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.088 | 0.560 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,400 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.247 | 0.511 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,000 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.419 | 0.222 | 0.560 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $4,600 |
4 | | SWITCH | 0.302 | 0.141 | 0.358 | C | $3,400 | 1B | $3,100 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.171 | 0.349 | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $3,600 |
6 | | LEFT | 0.279 | 0.128 | 0.294 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,600 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.253 | 0.075 | 0.209 | C | $2,400 | C | $2,100 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.234 | 0.055 | 0.126 | 2B | $2,000 | 3B/OF | $2,000 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.055 | 0.171 | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.307 | 0.131 | 0.349 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – GPP
Kansas City at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET
Kansas City | Minnesota |
| | | |
RIGHT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
MIN -110 | 8.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.410 | 6 | 12.4% | 10.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.321 | 2 | 25.8% | 7.7% |
SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 3 | 20.6% | 4.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 5 | 16.5% | 6.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Dillon Gee |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $5,300 |
FPPG: | 17.0 | FPPG: | 9.0 |
Pitcher Rating: | 45.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 23 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 3.79 | 2.87 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 51.2% | 27.9% | 17.8% |
2016 | 2 | 4.07 | 2.90 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 44.3% | 34.1% | 29.4% |
2015 | 7 | 4.41 | 5.90 | 13.7% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 51.0% | 29.4% | 33.6% |
Gee is making his third start of the season and so far, so good. He wasn’t expected to be a starter heading into the year, but he has worked himself into the rotation with a 3.79 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 20.3%. I’m still not completely sold on Gee as a long-term starter, but he draws a favorable matchup today against the Twins, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. You can certainly look to Gee on multi-pitcher sites, especially on DraftKings where he is priced at only $5,300. However, is my value pitcher of choice in the early slates.
Tyler Duffey |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $7,100 |
FPPG: | 28.8 | FPPG: | 15.2 |
Pitcher Rating: | 56.0 | Pitcher Rank: | 18 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 4.19 | 4.26 | 14.6% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 51.2% | 34.9% | 29.6% |
2016 | 5 | 3.78 | 3.30 | 19.5% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 46.8% | 34.0% | 29.5% |
2015 | 10 | 3.83 | 3.10 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 49.7% | 30.9% | 26.6% |
Duffey has pitched fairly well this season, posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.5% in his first five starts. He showed some decent strikeout upside a year ago and he has been able to carry that into 2016. The issue that I have with him today is his matchup. The Royals’ offense finally appears to be heating up and even through their early season struggles, they still have the ninth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals have scored 17 combined runs in the first two games of this series. That’s obviously too small of a sample size to say that their offense is back, but it’s at least encouraging. They draw a decent matchup today against , who has allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Even though he hits from the right side of the plate, remains an elite value play as long as he is batting second.
- Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.134 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.76 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (12 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.269 | 0.061 | 0.263 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,500 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.426 | 0.231 | 0.357 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $3,400 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.133 | 0.399 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,000 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.387 | 0.192 | 0.301 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $4,200 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.199 | 0.437 | C | $2,700 | C | $3,700 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.206 | 0.559 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,000 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.162 | 0.244 | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,700 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.242 | 0.094 | 0.265 | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $2,700 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.242 | 0.088 | 0.000 | C | $2,000 | C | $2,100 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.320 | 0.152 | 0.314 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – GPP
Minnesota
The Twins have the ninth highest team total on the board today. They draw a favorable matchup against , who may not be cut out to be a starter in the long run. Only time will tell, but the Twins are a sneaky offense to target in both cash games and GPPs. Over the last two seasons, Gee has allowed a .410 wOBA to left-handed hitters.
- Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.298 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.4% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.56 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (9 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.136 | 0.238 | SS | $3,000 | 3B/SS | $4,000 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.184 | 0.151 | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,700 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.113 | 0.287 | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,700 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.232 | 0.337 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 |
5 | | SWITCH | 0.293 | 0.162 | 0.516 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,000 |
6 | Byung Ho Park | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.287 | 0.284 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,900 |
7 | | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.143 | 0.598 | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,900 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.268 | 0.079 | 0.357 | C | $2,300 | C | $2,600 |
9 | | SWITCH | 0.243 | 0.084 | 0.282 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $2,800 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.311 | 0.158 | 0.339 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – (FD),
Secondary Plays – , , , Byung-Ho Park
Stackability – GPP
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET
Chicago Cubs | St. Louis |
| | | |
RIGHT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
CHC -170 | 7.0 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 4 | 28.8% | 7.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.334 | 14 | 20.6% | 10.4% |
SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 8 | 25.5% | 5.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 4 | 25.5% | 6.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Arrieta |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $12,300 | Salary: | $13,100 |
FPPG: | 49.7 | FPPG: | 28.8 |
Pitcher Rating: | 87.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 1 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 2.59 | 1.80 | 33.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 43.8% | 34.4% | 25.0% |
2016 | 9 | 3.23 | 1.29 | 26.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 55.0% | 25.2% | 23.0% |
2015 | 33 | 2.75 | 1.77 | 27.1% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 56.2% | 22.8% | 22.1% |
After dominating the Giants in San Francisco, Arrieta proved once again that he can dominate any team in any ballpark. Through his first nine starts of the season, he has a 3.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.7%. The best part is that Joe Maddon says that Arrieta will only improve moving forward, as they will look to lower his walk rate. He is the premier pitching option in every slate that he is available in. While the matchup against the Cardinals does give me a little pause (ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching), Arrieta is an elite play in all league formats.
Carlos Martinez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $6,600 |
FPPG: | 26.7 | FPPG: | 13.5 |
Pitcher Rating: | 68.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 9 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 2 | 5.47 | 7.20 | 10.9% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59.4% | 21.9% | 36.4% |
2016 | 8 | 4.34 | 3.56 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 52.2% | 31.9% | 32.6% |
2015 | 29 | 3.44 | 3.01 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 54.5% | 25.5% | 27.6% |
Martinez is coming off of two rough outings in a row. Those starts have bumped his SIERA down to 4.34 for the season and his strikeout rate is well below 20%. The two biggest issues for Martinez have been walks and his inability to get left-handed hitters out. That doesn’t bode well for his matchup today against the Cubs. They are projected to have five lefties in their lineup that all have at least a .325 wOBA against right-handed pitching. With pitching opposite him, Martinez is an easy fade today.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs put on a hitting clinic last night against the Cardinals. They will look to do the same today against the struggling . As I mentioned above, he has really struggled against left-handed hitters – allowing a .334 wOBA and 14 home runs over the last two seasons. I don’t love paying a premium for the Cubs’ hitters in this ballpark, but all of the lefties are in play here.
- Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.341 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.61 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (19 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | SWITCH | 0.348 | 0.182 | 0.360 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,400 |
2 | | LEFT | 0.338 | 0.145 | 0.310 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,700 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.212 | 0.331 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B/OF | $4,800 |
4 | | LEFT | 0.389 | 0.265 | 0.221 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,300 |
5 | | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.167 | 0.466 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $4,300 |
6 | Tommy | LEFT | 0.367 | 0.198 | 0.233 | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $3,000 |
7 | | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.151 | 0.377 | C | $2,600 | C | $3,000 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.148 | 0.270 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,400 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.191 | 0.125 | 0.262 | P | $12,300 | P | $13,100 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.334 | 0.177 | 0.314 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , Tommy
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – GPP
St. Louis
The Cardinals may have one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but that likely won’t be enough to make a difference against . St. Louis has the lowest team total on the board at only 3.09 runs. Over the last two seasons, Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .225 wOBA. That’s just filthy.
- Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.362 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.213 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.43 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.09 (30 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.392 | 0.257 | 0.355 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $3,500 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.414 | 0.265 | 0.252 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $2,700 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.176 | 0.263 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $2,700 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.167 | 0.391 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $3,300 |
5 | | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.186 | 0.438 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $2,400 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.101 | 0.319 | C | $2,900 | C | $2,600 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.268 | 0.384 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $2,700 |
8 | | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.139 | 0.393 | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $2,700 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.219 | 0.040 | 0.000 | P | $8,500 | P | $6,600 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.342 | 0.178 | 0.311 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Stackability – NONE
LA Angels at Texas – 2:05 PM ET
LA Angels | Texas |
| | | |
LEFT | RIGHT |
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
TEX -115 | 9.5 |
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 4 | 19.4% | 7.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.324 | 18 | 14.6% | 5.4% |
SP vs. Right | 0.329 | 35 | 20.8% | 9.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.303 | 18 | 19.8% | 4.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Hector Santiago |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $6,000 |
FPPG: | 27.6 | FPPG: | 14.1 |
Pitcher Rating: | 33.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 29 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 3 | 5.33 | 4.80 | 14.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 36.4% | 52.3% | 37.8% |
2016 | 9 | 4.51 | 3.93 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 40.9% | 46.1% | 33.3% |
2015 | 32 | 4.50 | 3.59 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 29.9% | 53.6% | 33.6% |
Santiago got off to a hot start this season, but has since cooled off. He now owns a 4.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.8%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed 39 home runs in his last 41 starts. While a high home run rate isn’t the end all be all, it is when you don’t have a high strikeout rate to go with it. In a difficult matchup against the Rangers, Santiago can be avoided in all league formats.
Colby Lewis |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $8,100 |
FPPG: | 32.3 | FPPG: | 17.5 |
Pitcher Rating: | 35.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 28 |
Statistics | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
L14 Days | 3 | 3.09 | 1.71 | 23.0% | 1.4% | 8.3% | 45.5% | 34.5% | 32.1% |
2016 | 9 | 4.10 | 2.75 | 19.0% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 37.0% | 42.8% | 36.6% |
2015 | 33 | 4.43 | 4.66 | 16.5% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 33.7% | 44.2% | 33.3% |
Lewis has a 2.75 ERA on the season. How on Earth is this possible? A BABIP of .261 will certainly help. So will a left on-base percentage of 92.3. To put it kindly, those numbers are not sustainable over the course of an entire season. I do expect regression to hit and I do expect it to hit hard. That may not happen today, but it will happen. I never like to target pitchers that have good numbers because they have been, for lack of a better word, lucky.
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
The Angels’ offense has been a disappointment this season, but they come into today’s game with the fourth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Over the last two seasons, Lewis has allowed 36 home runs – 18 to lefties and 18 to righties.
- Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.127 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.7% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.98 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.66 (4 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.097 | 0.325 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $3,500 |
2 | | LEFT | 0.330 | 0.162 | 0.339 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,100 |
3 | | RIGHT | 0.417 | 0.291 | 0.445 | OF | $4,900 | OF | $5,300 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.217 | 0.395 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,200 |
5 | | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.177 | 0.296 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,300 |
6 | | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.114 | 0.377 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,300 |
7 | | LEFT | 0.269 | 0.029 | 0.199 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,000 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | | C | $2,400 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.067 | 0.296 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,900 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.290 | 0.128 | 0.297 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – Cash & GPP
Texas
The Rangers are small favorites in this matchup and if the Angels have the fourth highest team total, that means the Rangers are one of the top offenses to target. In fact, they have the second highest team projection at 4.84 runs. is a fly-ball pitcher with a declining strikeout rate. That is music to hitter’s ears. Load up on the right-handed bats in this lineup.
- Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.315 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.123 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.7% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.41 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.84 (2 of 30)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
1 | | LEFT | 0.330 | 0.172 | 0.121 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $3,900 |
2 | | RIGHT | 0.358 | 0.207 | 0.396 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,000 |
3 | | LEFT | 0.299 | 0.140 | 0.302 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,400 |
4 | | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.223 | 0.261 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,400 |
5 | | LEFT | 0.271 | 0.022 | 0.404 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,600 |
6 | | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.140 | 0.338 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,700 |
7 | | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.207 | 0.301 | OF | $2,300 | 1B/OF | $3,300 |
8 | | RIGHT | 0.196 | 0.021 | 0.269 | C | $2,300 | C | $2,800 |
9 | | RIGHT | 0.136 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 2B | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.294 | 0.126 | 0.284 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – Cash & GPP
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