MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-05 02:20:24

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Join the discussion! Check out our forum thread for today’s MLB action.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Pittsburgh
			Jon Lester					Juan Nicasio
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -140					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.282	5	28.3%	4.0%	SP vs. Left	0.390	2	23.0%	17.0%
SP vs. Right	0.284	15	24.2%	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.259	2	26.8%	8.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jon Lester
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$10,900	Salary:	$10,400
				FPPG:	41.0	FPPG:	23.6
				Pitcher Rating:	80.3	Pitcher Rank:	7
2016	5	3.12	25.8%	5.5%	42.9%	25.0%	12
2015	32	3.19	25.0%	5.7%	48.9%	29.0%	25

Lester is off to a strong start for the Cubs this season, posting a 3.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.8% in his first five starts. His numbers look eerily identical to a season ago. He draws a decent matchup today against the Pirates, who are ranked 18th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Lester is a sizable favorite here, but it’s hard not to take the discount with Steven Matz in the early slate.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Juan Nicasio
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,000	Salary:	$6,300
				FPPG:	34.8	FPPG:	18.4
				Pitcher Rating:	69.7	Pitcher Rank:	9
2016	5	3.78	26.4%	10.9%	43.3%	17.4%	13
2015	1	3.77	25.0%	12.3%	43.3%	23.5%	30

Nicasio has always had electric stuff, he has just never been able to put it altogether. This could be a breakout season for the 29-year old right-hander. In his first five starts in 2016, he has a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.4%. He does walk a few too many batters though, and he draws an awful matchup against the Cubs, who lead the majors in runs scored per game this season. Wait at least another start before targeting Nicasio in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 6.12 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.98 (16 of 30)

The Cubs hit right-handed pitching well as a team and currently lead the majors in runs scored per game. Even though they aren’t playing in a great hitter’s park, all of the left-handed hitters are in play here. Over the course of the last two seasons, Nicasio has allowed a .390 wOBA with a walk rate of 17% to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.340	0.182	0.425	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,500
2	Tommy La Stella	LEFT	0.371	0.187	0.574	2B	$2,500	3B	$2,900
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.383	0.215	0.446	3B	$4,600	3B/OF	$4,600
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.394	0.275	0.463	1B	$4,800	1B	$5,200
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.326	0.150	0.402	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900
6	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.276	0.111	0.344	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,000
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.324	0.150	0.275	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,200
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.242	0.117	0.430	C	$2,500	C	$2,500
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.109	0.017	0.000	P	$10,900	P	$10,400
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.156	0.373	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Tommy La Stella, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

Pirates Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.301 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.122 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.04 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.52 (24 of 30)

The Pirates draw a difficult matchup today against Jon Lester, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. While he has been a little better this season, Lester has always been known as a pitcher that you can steal bases against. If you are targeting any Pirates today, give the advantage to those with speed.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.349	0.113	0.422	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,100
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.407	0.226	0.322	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,000
3	David Freese	RIGHT	0.333	0.220	0.370	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,800
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.310	0.163	0.355	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,000
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.383	0.144	0.352	C	$3,200	C	$3,000
6	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.325	0.178	0.423	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$2,300
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.343	0.091	0.395	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,400
8	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.244	0.106	0.410	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,100
9	Juan Nicasio	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$8,000	P	$6,300
	Team Averages	—	0.299	0.138	0.339	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte

Stackability – NONE

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Cincinnati
			Jake Peavy					Dan Straily
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -130					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.329	8	17.8%	6.9%	SP vs. Left	0.279	1	15.1%	16.3%
SP vs. Right	0.327	6	16.1%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.330	4	26.7%	7.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jake Peavy
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,300	Salary:	$6,400
				FPPG:	13.2	FPPG:	3.5
				Pitcher Rating:	48.8	Pitcher Rank:	20
2016	5	4.59	15.2%	6.3%	40.0%	32.2%	22
2015	19	4.33	17.4%	5.6%	37.9%	26.5%	13

Peavy may be a small favorite in this game, but I don’t want anything to do with either of these pitchers. The total for the game is set at 9.0 runs and both offenses are expected to have some success in their respective matchups. Peavy has not pitched well so far this season, posting a 4.59 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 15.2%. Even though the Reds have struggled offensively early in the season, there are better pitching options in the early and all-day slates.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Dan Straily
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,300	Salary:	$4,700
				FPPG:	18.5	FPPG:	10.5
				Pitcher Rating:	36.6	Pitcher Rank:	26
2016	3	4.27	22.9%	12.5%	39.7%	35.0%	1
2015	3	4.67	18.4%	10.5%	41.5%	28.3%	6

Straily draws one of the most difficult matchups of any pitcher in today’s slate. The Giants are one of the hardest teams to strikeout and they are ranked sixth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Straily has shown some nice strikeout upside this season, but this is not the matchup that you want to target him in, especially since he will be pitching in the Great American Ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Giants Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.07 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.68 (2 of 30)

The Giants’ offense has been firing on all cylinders recently. They average the fifth most runs per game this season and they come into today’s game with the second highest team total on the board. In his career, Dan Straily has allowed a .329 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .307 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.377	0.148	0.357	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,800
2	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.341	0.127	0.578	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.376	0.216	0.452	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,300
4	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.362	0.193	0.365	1B	$3,900	1B	$5,100
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.342	0.215	0.255	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,300
6	Conor Gillaspie	LEFT	0.273	0.138	0.252	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,000
7	Trevor Brown	RIGHT	0.361	0.213	0.258	C	$2,000	C	$3,700
8	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.296	0.063	0.197	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,400
9	Jake Peavy	RIGHT	0.293	0.143	0.410	P	$6,300	P	$6,400
	Team Averages	—	0.336	0.162	0.347	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Gregor Blanco, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Plays – Conor Gillaspie

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

Reds Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.70 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (6 of 30)

Even though the Reds are underdogs at home, they still have the sixth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Jake Peavy, who has not been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate – allowing a .327+ wOBA to both.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.325	0.188	0.308	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,300
2	Tyler Holt	RIGHT	0.203	0.027	0.395	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.408	0.219	0.276	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.315	0.107	0.278	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,600
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.323	0.235	0.300	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.312	0.155	0.256	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,200
7	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.332	0.276	0.239	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500
8	Ramon Cabrera	SWITCH	0.391	0.182				C	$2,200
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,300	P	$4,700
	Team Averages	—	0.290	0.154	0.257	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Zack Cozart, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Tyler Holt, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta at NY Mets – 1:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					NY Mets
			Jhoulys Chacin					Steven Matz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -200					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.335	3	12.9%	9.7%	SP vs. Left	0.370	0	22.4%	13.4%
SP vs. Right	0.258	1	29.1%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.278	5	23.6%	4.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jhoulys Chacin
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,100	Salary:	$5,900
				FPPG:	30.8	FPPG:	17.0
				Pitcher Rating:	56.9	Pitcher Rank:	16
2016	4	2.96	25.0%	4.4%	49.2%	32.3%	20
2015	4	4.28	18.9%	9.0%	47.4%	38.8%	15

Chacin has been awesome this season, posting a 2.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. While I want to believe in him moving forward, it is going to take a larger sample size than four starts. The other issue is that he has yet to throw more than 91 pitches in any of his starts, which does limit his upside. He draws an awful matchup today against the Mets, who are ranked ninth in team ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. As a large underdog on the road, Chacin is a deep GPP play at best.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Steven Matz
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$9,000	Salary:	$9,200
				FPPG:	34.5	FPPG:	16.4
				Pitcher Rating:	93.6	Pitcher Rank:	1
2016	4	3.31	23.9%	7.6%	55.2%	22.6%	29
2015	6	3.63	22.8%	6.7%	45.5%	21.2%	11

Matz is considerably cheaper than the other aces taking the mound today, yet I have him ranked as my number one pitching target overall. He is off to a great start this season, posting a 3.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.9%. He is producing an elite ground ball rate and he isn’t giving up a ton of hard contact. He draws a perfect matchup against the Braves, who are ranked 29th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Matz is the safest play on the board and I will have shares of him in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Braves Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.284 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.107 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.19 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.92 (30 of 30)

Since the start of last season, the Braves are ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching. They come into today’s game with the lowest total of all 30 teams in action. They are facing a very good left-handed pitcher in ballpark that is more favorable for pitchers. Basically, the Braves can be avoided in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.281	0.057	0.316	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,000
2	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.297	0.145	0.230	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,500
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.326	0.122	0.368	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,200
4	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.368	0.221	0.259	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,100
5	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.295	0.102	0.300	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,200
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.317	0.082	0.267	C	$2,000	C	$2,500
7	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.241	0.044	0.195	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,500
8	Jhoulys Chacin	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,100	P	$5,900
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.217	0.125	0.373	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.260	0.100	0.256	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Mets Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.08 (14 of 30)

The Mets’ offense was shut out last night by Matt Wisler. They are hoping for a better outing today against Jhoulys Chacin. While he has pitched well this season, no one is expecting him to maintain his success at this rate. He has historically struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a career .334 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.382	0.224	0.451	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.164	0.349	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,400
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.408	0.287	0.455	OF	$4,000	OF	$3,800
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.386	0.273	0.492	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,700
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.351	0.227	0.404	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.343	0.191	0.514	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,100
7	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.276	0.108	0.238	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$3,000
8	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.220	0.111	0.180	C	$2,100	C	$2,400
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.252	0.053	0.177	P	$9,000	P	$9,200
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.182	0.362	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto (DK), Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels at Milwaukee – 1:40 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Milwaukee
			Hector Santiago					Zach Davies
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA -130					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.271	3	18.8%	7.0%	SP vs. Left	0.311	2	19.4%	12.9%
SP vs. Right	0.321	31	21.8%	9.5%	SP vs. Right	0.364	2	14.2%	8.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Hector Santiago
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,600	Salary:	$7,600
				FPPG:	33.8	FPPG:	18.5
				Pitcher Rating:	58.9	Pitcher Rank:	15
2016	5	3.82	21.7%	7.0%	45.7%	30.4%	22
2015	32	4.50	20.9%	9.2%	29.9%	33.6%	23

Santiago has pitched well this season, posting a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.7%. He has cut down on his walks and he is producing ground balls at a much higher rate. For me, his fantasy appeal hinges on whether or not Ryan Braun is in the lineup. Braun missed yesterday’s game due to general soreness, but it sounds like it was more of a routine day off. With the total for the game set at 9.0 runs, Santiago is a risky fantasy option for cash games.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Zach Davies
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,800	Salary:	$6,100
				FPPG:	10.3	FPPG:	1.6
				Pitcher Rating:	33.6	Pitcher Rank:	28
2016	3	4.82	14.9%	10.5%	50.0%	35.4%	2
2015	6	4.34	17.3%	10.8%	57.6%	32.0%	10

Davies is an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS, regardless of the opponent. In his last nine major league starts, he has a SIERA over 4.50 with a strikeout rate under 17%. He walks over 10% of the batters that he faces. To make matters worse, he has to face the Angels in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. There is more risk than potential reward with Davies.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Angels Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.63 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.68 (2 of 30)

The Angels are tied for the second highest team total on the board today at 4.68 runs. They may not hit right-handed pitching well as a team, but their offense has been heating up over the last couple of weeks. They also see a nice ballpark boost playing in Miller Park. The sample size is small, but Davies has allowed a .364 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.339	0.103	0.307	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800
2	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.273	0.000	0.310	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.406	0.291	0.448	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,400
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.332	0.228	0.283	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,500
5	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.326	0.172	0.313	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.297	0.081	0.273	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,200
7	Geovany Soto	RIGHT	0.306	0.174	0.471	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
8	Hector Santiago	LEFT	0.176	0.000		P	$8,600	P	$7,600
9	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.296	0.108	0.287	2B	$2,000	2B	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.129	0.337	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Rafael Ortega, Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee

Brewers Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.292 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (6 of 30)

The Brewers may not be favored in this game, but they are still one of the top offenses to target, especially in the early-only slate. They have the sixth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Hector Santiago, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .321 wOBA and 31 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.419	0.256	0.343	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.334	0.169	0.307	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.401	0.234	0.495	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,900
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.264	0.070	0.379	C	$3,100	C	$3,300
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.340	0.227	0.430	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700
6	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.260	0.075	0.250	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,500
7	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.139	0.000	0.183	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900
8	Yadiel Rivera	RIGHT	0.139	0.077	0.097	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,300
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.126	0.000	0.000	P	$5,800	P	$6,100
	Team Averages	—	0.269	0.123	0.276	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Domingo Santana, Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Secondary Plays – Chris Carter, Aaron Hill

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Washington at Kansas City – 2:15 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Washington					Kansas City
			Stephen Strasburg					Kris Medlen
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -140					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.243	5	29.9%	7.5%	SP vs. Left	0.323	4	15.8%	13.6%
SP vs. Right	0.312	10	29.2%	2.8%	SP vs. Right	0.313	4	18.0%	6.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Stephen Strasburg
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$11,100	Salary:	$11,600
				FPPG:	49.8	FPPG:	27.5
				Pitcher Rating:	84.1	Pitcher Rank:	5
2016	5	2.73	29.2%	5.8%	51.7%	24.7%	8
2015	23	2.76	29.6%	5.0%	42.2%	28.9%	1

Strasburg has yet to have a bad fantasy outing this season. In his five starts, he has a 2.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.2%. He has been able to stay healthy and he has looked great so far. His biggest test to date comes today against the Royals, who have the lowest strikeout rate of any team in the majors over the last two season. Strasburg is still a top five pitching overall, but I have a hard time paying a premium for him against the Royals in Kansas City.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Kris Medlen
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,500	Salary:	$6,200
				FPPG:	22.0	FPPG:	9.8
				Pitcher Rating:	45.8	Pitcher Rank:	23
2016	4	5.76	17.8%	17.8%	48.3%	29.3%	17
2015	8	4.28	16.5%	7.4%	49.7%	27.3%	28

Medlen is not the type of pitcher that we are looking to target in DFS. He typically doesn’t pitch very deep into games and he has a low strikeout rate of 17.8%. To make matters worse, his command has been awful this season. Even though the Nationals have been struggling offensively, Medlen can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Nationals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.12 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.98 (16 of 30)

The Nationals are projected to score 3.98 runs today, which is right around the average of the 30 teams in action. They draw a favorable matchup against Kris Medlen, but they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. Over the last two season, Medlen has allowed a .323 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.266	0.125	0.305	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.298	0.091	0.252	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,700
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.470	0.360	0.332	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,000
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.285	0.144	0.258	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,500
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.352	0.195	0.331	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.287	0.134	0.339	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.275	0.132	0.263	C	$2,800	C	$3,200
8	Clint Robinson	LEFT	0.319	0.162	0.212	1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$3,000
9	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.301	0.169	0.311	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.168	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City

Royals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.38 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.52 (24 of 30)

The Royals have the seventh lowest team total on the board today. While they love to ruin a pitcher’s day by manufacturing runs against him, I want no part of Kansas City against Stephen Strasburg. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.264	0.063	0.233	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,700
2	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.354	0.196	0.396	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,200
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.324	0.123	0.227	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,100
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.384	0.186	0.436	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,600
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.357	0.231	0.240	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,800
6	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.343	0.160	0.331	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,800
7	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.333	0.199	0.385	C	$2,900	C	$2,800
8	Omar Infante	RIGHT	0.244	0.100	0.257	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,200
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.308	0.133	0.310	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.155	0.313	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 4th

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Tommy La Stella, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte

Stackability – NONE

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Gregor Blanco, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Plays – Conor Gillaspie

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Zack Cozart, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Tyler Holt, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – GPP

Atlanta at NY Mets – 1:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto (DK), Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels at Milwaukee – 1:40 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Rafael Ortega, Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Domingo Santana, Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Secondary Plays – Chris Carter, Aaron Hill

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Washington at Kansas City – 2:15 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

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