NHL Grind Down: Saturday, December 10th

by Tom Woollam (elctrceye) Last Updated 2016-12-11 03:45:19

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers

Dallas Stars					Philadelphia Flyers
			Kari Lehtonen					Steve Mason
			Record					Record
			11-11-6					16-10-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.57	3.18	18.10%	78.30%	Team Stats	3.21	3.10	23.60%	79.80%

The Dallas Stars did what they had to do to get back into the Central division race on Thursday night as they took down the Nashville Predators by a score of 5-2. The win pulled them into a tie with the Predators with 28 points which is just two points away from the third place Minnesota Wild so a win here could do wonders for a team that has been injured for most of the season. The burning question here will be whether or not head coach Lindy Ruff will keep Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza together on the Stars top line. They are easily the top three skill players the team has which is why it worked so well on home ice Thursday night but when the team hits the road, it could be different story. They all play on the team’s top power play unit that has scored four goals in the last six games and with the way the Flyers were taking penalties on Thursday night that could be a good thing. Seguin leads the team in points with 29 points in 28 games with Benn right behind him with 24. Spezza’s five points over the last five games as elevated his point total to 14 in the 21 games he was healthy for so far this season. John Klingberg is the choice on the blue line as he quarterbacks the team’s top unit when they have the man advantage. Klingberg has been in the dog house a little bit this season but has still managed 13 points in 26 games. The biggest disappointment is his 33 shots in those 26 gamed as opposed to last year where he had 171 shots on goal in 76 games. The second line of Antoine Roussel, Radek Faksa and Brett Ritchie could make for a sneaky GPP play here but the problem that even if they start the game together, Ruff may not let them finish together. Stick with the top four skill players this afternoon.

The Flyers have won an unprecedented seven games in a row as the get set to host the Dallas Stars this afternoon. The top line of Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek and Michael Raffl should be the line to target here for your cash games with the former two making a great duo as they see most of the time on the team’s top power play unit. Both players have more than ten points apiece over the last seven games which should be good enough to consider them in almost any format this afternoon. Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn skate on the team’s second line but join Giroux and Voracek when the Flyers draw a penalty. Simmonds has five goals and two assists over the last seven games while Schenn needs to pick it up a bit as he has just three points over that same time frame. Shayne Gostisbehere continues to see the extra minutes when the Flyers have the man advantage but it could be only a matter of time until Ivan Provonov gets a shot at quarterbacking the top power play unit. Either way, with the way the Flyers are rolling lately, they should be able to score some goals today on home ice especially Giroux and Voracek, who are up over a point a game.

Elite Plays

DAL: Tyler Seguin
PHL: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux

Secondary Plays

DAL: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza, John Klingberg
PHL: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, Shayne Gostisbehere

Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings

Ottawa Senators					Los Angeles Kings
			Mike Condon					Peter Budaj
			Record					Record
			16-9-2					13-11-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.41	2.56	16.70%	85.20%	Team Stats	2.54	2.58	13.60%	80.20%

As long as the Senators good goaltending keeps up they should be able to be competitive. Once it starts to break down it could get a bit messy. They had a season low 17 shots on goal the other night in San Jose and somehow were able to be the Sharks on their home ice by a score of 4-2. Over the last five games they were able to beat Florida with just 21 shots on goal and the Rangers in New York with just 20. Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman and Derick Brassard form the team’s top line as both Hoffman and Stone have eclipsed the 20 point mark this season thanks to getting the extra time on the top power play unit. Both players have a combined 15 points over the last five games while each of them has five points apiece on the power play over that same time frame. Defensman Erik Karlsson leads the team in points with 27 in 27 games. His total has been boosted over the last five games thanks to the three goals and seven assists he has registered while getting 17 shots on net. He also has five power play points over the last five games. Speaking of defenseman, Dion Phaneuf continues to see the top minutes when the Senators have the man advantage but that may dry up soon enough as Bobby Ryan made his return last game and usually is the fifth option in that situation. Ryan will skate with Kyle Turris and Ryan Dzingel on the team’s second line. Turris makes for a decent one-off pay as he joins Stone, Hoffman, Karlsson and Phaneuf on the top power play unit. His five points over the last five games has upped his season total to 11 goals and seven assists so far this season. The Kings have given up a few goals lately and could be in for a surprise this afternoon.

If the playoffs were to start today, the Kings would be on the outside looking in. Los Angeles is a little bit like the Dallas Stars in terms of games lost as Anze Kopitar has missed five games while Marian Gaborik has returned back to the line up just five games ago. The top line of Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson have been trying to hold the fort down until the Kopitar line gets healthy. Carter and Toffoli lead the team in points with 21 and 15 respectively so you can see why the Kings need that second scoring line. Gaborik has registered three assists since his return while Kopitar looks to be getting back to form as his five points over the last five games. This gives Kopitar a total of two goals and 12 assists on the year while line mate Trevor Lewis has just eight points so far this season. The Kings are going to have to find another winger to play alongside Gaborik and Kopitar if they want to have to strong scoring lines. Things seem to be looking up here as they get back to being healthy. Whether it’s a coincidence or not, the return of Gaborik has had a positive effect on defenseman Drew Doughty as he has found the net twice while adding an assist on another goal since his return. Meanwhile Alec Martinez has slowed down a bit but still has 14 points on the season while Jake Muzzin continues to struggle. Stick with Doughty or look elsewhere.

Elite plays

OTT: Erik Karlsson
LAK: Jeff Carter

Secondary Plays

OTT: Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan
LAK: Tyler Toffoli, Anze Kopitar, Marian Gaborik, Drew Doughty

New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets

New York Islanders					Columbus Blue Jackets
			Jaroslav Halak					Curtis McElhinney
			Record					Record
			11-10-5					16-5-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.62	2.81	13.50%	83.30%	Team Stats	3.17	2.17	24.60%	80.60%

For all intents and purposes the Islanders have been playing some good hockey over the last six games as they have won five of those contests. It isn’t until you take a closer look that you find that the New Yorkers have a 2-6-5 record away from Barclay’s Center. This is typical of one-line teams as the Islanders most definitely are. They moved Brock Nelson to the top line with John Tavares and Josh Bailey a few games back and by all means make for a great play on home ice as all three players have tallied four points over the last five games. The road game is a bit different though as the second line of Andrew Ladd, Ryan Strome and Shane Prince just doesn’t have the luster that the top line has. Tavares is always a decent play by himself but maybe taking a look at Anders Lee as a one-off here could be a little profitable. Lee has seemed to be rejuvenated since he joined the top power play unit with Tavares as he has scored four goals and an assist over the last five games. Consider that Lee only had been able to manage ten points so far this season and you can see why he may make for a decent play tonight. Nick Leddy gets to quarterback the Islanders top power play unit that has scored in the last two games. This lines up well with the Blue Jackets as they have given up a goal in each of the last three games while trying to kill a penalty.

Columbus has done an excellent job of getting pucks to the net as they have had at least 34 of them in each of their last six games. It’s no coincidence that they have won five of those games as they fired 60 shots on Arizona en route to a 3-2 shootout win last Saturday night. There are many ways to go here but sticking with the top line of Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg and Nick Foligno is probably the safest way to go if you are playing in cash games tonight. They all have over 21 pints in the first 24 games and there’s no reason to think that they won’t score a few tonight against a bad road team that the Islanders seem to be. Cam Atkinson makes for a great one-off play here as he leads the team in scoring from the second line while seeing the top minutes on the team’s power play. Atkinson has contributed four assists over the last five games while getting 18 shots on net. Sam Gagner is also a decent one-off play here from the third line as seven of his 17 points have come with the man advantage. He also has grabbed three goals and two assists with a team leading 19 shots over the last five games. Not a bad play indeed. Zachary Werenski is the choice on defense but he has cooled off in recent weeks as he has just one goal to his credit over the last five games. Look for the Blue Jackets to add to their 20 goals they have scored over the last six games. We will have to monitor the status of Nick Foligno as he missed last night’s game with an illness.

Elite Plays

NYI: John Tavares
CBJ: Alexander Wennberg

Secondary Plays

NYI: Anders Lee, Nick Leddy, Brock Nelson
CBJ: Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson, Sam Gagner, Zachary Werenski

Pittsburgh Penguins at Tampa Bay Lightning

Pittsburgh Penguins					Tampa Bay Lightning
			Marc-Andre Fleury					Andrei Vasilevskiy
			Record					Record
			17-7-3					14-12-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.37	2.96	17.40%	76.00%	Team Stats	2.71	2.71	22.20%	82.80%

Here we are in one of these spots where it looks like one team should come in and steamroll the other and we all know what happens when we thing that, right? Pittsburgh has manhandled anyone in their way over the last four games as they have chalked up 24 goals in those four wins. Meanwhile the Lightning have looked very mediocre since the loss of Steven Stamkos ten games ago as he is still second on the teams scoring chart with 20 points. Sidney Crosby has been a beast this season as he leads the league in goals while registering 29 points in just 21 games. A lot of this has to do with winger Conor Sheary as it looks like the penguins have finally found the chemistry that has been missing since the Pasqual Dupuis days. Sheary’s six points over the last five games now gets him at 15 points for the year and now that Patric Hornqvist is back healthy, these numbers could stabilize and that’s not a bad thing. Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are each point-a-game players as well as they skate on the second line but join Crosby and Hornqvist on the top power play unit. With the way the penguins are scoring lately it doesn’t even matter who you match up with who as they have all been scoring but for practical purposes it’s best to target the players that play alongside of each other. Kris Letang is the choice on defense as he quarterbacks a power play unit that has scored just one goal in the last nine games. Let that sink in. The Penguins have been doing all of their scoring at even strength. Crazy stuff eh?

Everybody has been waiting for the talent on this Tampa team to start to gel without Steven Stamkos but so far that hasn’t materialized. Nikita Kucherov has been the only player worth rostering as he continues to lead the team with 29 points in 27 games. He played alongside of Alex Killorn and Vladislav Namestnikov last games as the Lightning continue to shuffle up the lines. Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and Joel Vermin skate on the second line while Jonathan Drouin makes for an interesting one-off play here from the third line. Drouin now skates with Valtteri Filppula but has been spotted on the team’s top power play unit. It is from there that his value is found as he gets exposure to the best player on the team in Kucherov. It also doesn’t hurt that Drouin has tallied four of his 11 points in the last four games. Victor Hedman is rising from the ashes from the point as he now ranks third on the team in scoring with 19 points while quarterbacking the Lightning’s top power play unit. Tampa has only scored 20 goals in the ten games that Stamkos has missed so using caution here in cash games is the way to go.

Elite Plays

PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin
TB: Nikita Kucherov

Secondary Plays

PIT: Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, Conor Sheary
TB: Victor Hedman, Vladislav Namestnikov, Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins

Toronto Maple Leafs					Boston Bruins
			Frederik Andersen					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			10-10-5					15-11-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.96	3.08	18.90%	85.50%	Team Stats	2.36	2.32	14.10%	87.00%

To Toronto’s credit they have tried to stay with the same set of lines over the past. The problem is that they are not scoring as much which could lead to some line changes tonight. They have scored four goals over the last three games which saw them finish up a western Canadian road trip and lose to Devan Dubnyk and the Minnesota Wild on home ice on Wednesday night. The top line that features Tyler Bozak, Mitchell Marner and James van Riemsdyk is usually the full line to target as they have had the most success as a line so far this season. Auston Matthews makes for a nice one-off play by skating on a second line with Zach Hyman and Connor Brown. He leads the team in shots with 93 and looks to have found his scoring touch as he has netted three goals over the past five games. Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov could be a nice duo to throw into a GPP as Kadri has three points in the last five game swhile unleashing a team lead 22 shots on goal over that time frame. Jake Gardiner and Morgan Rielly are you choices on the back end but the check mark has to go to Rielly as he leads the defense in scoring with 14 points this season.

Boston is another team that is looking to get back on track as they dropped a 4-2 decision on home ice to the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday night. They are 4-4-2 in their last ten games and have been very mediocre on home ice as their 7-6 record would suggest. David Pastrnak continues to score almost at will on the top line while skating next to Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. If you remember it was Marchand that got off to the hot start but now it seems to have rubbed off onto Pastrnak as his two goals on Thursday night has pulled him into a tie for the league lead in goals with Sidney Crosby. This is the line to target tonight but if you are a 2-2-2 guy, try to leave out Bergeron as he has just eight points in 25 games. David Krejci and David Backes would be the tournament plays here as they have each snared three points over the last five games while staying in the top five on the Bruins scoring leader chart for the season. Torey Krug is you man from the point as he anchors the top power play unit and is tied with Patrice Bergeron for the team lead in shots with 84 of them. Toronto is prone to give up some goals at times so I would look for at least three goals from the Bruins tonight.

Elite Plays

TOR: James van Riemsdyk
BOS: David Pastrnak

Secondary Plays

TOR: Mitchell Marner, Tyler Bozak, Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly
BOS: Brad Marchand, David Krejci, David Backes, Torey Krug

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