NHL Grind Down: Saturday, January 14th

by Tom Woollam (elctrceye) Last Updated 2017-01-15 01:40:15

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins

Philadelphia Flyers					Boston Bruins
			Michal Neuvirth					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			22-16-6					22-18-5
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.82	3.02	22.70%	81.50%	Team Stats	2.42	2.42	15.90%	87.20%

The Flyers have been looking to recreate the magic that saw them win ten games in a row back in December as they have only won three of their last 12 games while dropping like a rock in the standings. If they don’t be careful their 50 points will be toast as the Florida Panthers have inched within four points of wrestling the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference away from them. Philadelphia shook up the lines against Vancouver the other night and was okay as they needed a shoot out to take the 5-4 victory on home ice. Now they are back to where they were before the winning streak, scoring goals and giving them up, which is perfect for us. Claude Giroux centers the first line with Michael Raffl and Travis Konecny while Sean Couturier skates with Nick Cousins and Jakub Voracek. This is starting to look a little bit like Buffalo has tried to do with using two skill players with a bottom six player. Dale Weise would be that player on the third line as he hits the jackpot playing with Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn. The best thing to do here may be to pair up Giroux or Voracek with one of their line mates or just go ahead and pair up Simmonds with Schenn as all four players see a majority of the ice time when the Flyers draw a penalty. Voracek’s five points in the last five games has kept him atop the Flyers scoring chart with 40 points while Giroux is second on the team with ten goals and 26 assists. Schenn leads the team with ten power play goals. Shayne Gostisbehere has all but become a ghost of his former self from a year ago. 19 points in 43 games is not the numbers you want from an offensive defenseman that logs a lot of ice time with the extra skater. Ivan Provorov is pushing to get on that top power play line as he has tallied three of his 19 points over the last five games. look for the Flyers to score a few goals here with the ‘power play four’ getting in on the action.

The Boston Bruins come into this one second in the Atlantic Division with 49 points fueled by a 13-8-5 record away from the home crowd. Today they host the Philadelphia Flyers and will look to improve on their 9-10 home record which will help them keep pace for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron is the line to target here as Marchand leads the team with 23 assists and 38 points while Pastrnak leads the team with 19 goals in the 38 games he has suited up for. If you are playing pairs the one to leave off here is Bergeron as he has found the scoresheet just 17 times so far this season. When it comes to the power play this line gets the first shot which may be okay here as the Bruins have tallied five goals with the man advantage over the last five games. David Krejci centers the second line with David Backes and Frank Vatrano. This line could be used as a tournament play but with so many games today it’s probably best to look elsewhere unless you are playing the ‘early’ slate only. Krejci has 27 points so far while Backes has added 11 goals and ten assists in the 37 games he has played in. Ryan Spooner has been moved back to the third line yet again but will remain with the top line on the power play. This makes Spooner a decent one-off play here as seven of his 21 points have come while the Bruins had the man advantage. Torey Krug is the choice on defense as Zdeno Chara has seen his best days pass him by. Krug has lit the lamp three times on 124 shots but has added 23 assists and 11 power play points.

Elite Plays

PHL: Jakub Voracek
Bos: Brad Marchand

Secondary Plays

PHL: Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds, Ivan Provorov
BOS: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug, David Krejci, David Backes, Patrice Bergeron, Ryan Spooner

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

Nashville Predators					Colorado Avalanche
			Pekka Rinne					Semyon Varlamov
			Record					Record
			19-16-7					13-26-1
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.74	2.60	18.70%	82.30%	Team Stats	2.00	3.33	13.30%	77.90%

The Predators get a break today as they face an awful team in the Colorado Avalanche. As if the injuries weren’t bad enough now defenseman Roman Josi has been placed on the injured reserve list and will be out for at least a week. Both P.K. Subban and James Neal skated in yesterday’s optional practice but unless Nashville takes them off the IR, they won’t play in this game either. The good news is that Viktor Arvidsson has returned to play back on the top line alongside of Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen which makes them a pretty lucrative play for cash games, even on the road. Johansen leads the team with 29 points while Forsberg and Arvidsson are right on his heels with 26 and 25 points respectively. Mike Fisher will center the second line of Auston Watson and Colton Sissons and makes for a dent one-off play here as he has tallied five points over the last six games. Fisher also skate on the top power play unit which has only found the twine once in the last six games. If Subban cannot play look for either Mattias Ekholm or Ryan Ellis to get the added minutes on the back line which would make either a good punt play playing against competition this bad. Look for some goals in this one regardless of who is in the lineup as Colorado has given up 28 goals in the last six games.

Colorado has scored more than two goals just once over the last 12 games. Let that sink in while I contemplate on skipping writing this bunch of scrubs up or try to find an actual reason to take anyone from a bad team such as this. Okay, only because the Avalanche has put together a top line of Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen can you even think of considering them as a deeper tournament play. MacKinnon leads the team with 28 points on 134 shots on goal while Rantanen has shown signs of flashes by recording 18 points in 35 games while being bounced from line to line. This is clearly the best line they can put together and could find the back of the net, especially on home ice tonight. Matt Duchene leads the team in goals with 13 as he center the second line of Rene Bourque and Blake Comeau. Duchene’s line mates wouldn’t be on some team’s fourth lines let alone counting on them to put up secnd line stats. This is why Colorado has only scored 80 goals in 40 games. Enough said. Tyson Barrie is the choice on the back line as he has tallied 21 points while being bounced back and forth on the team’s top power play unit. This game finds him on the second unit which is another thing I don’t understand but will save the rant for another time. Colorado can only be considered as a deeper GPP play unless of course you just hit the lottery and then went straight to the casino and put it all on black when it came up on the lucky number 13.

Elite Plays

NSH: Ryan Johansen
COL: None

Secondary Plays

NSH: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, Mike Fisher
COL: Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

New York Islanders					Carolina Hurricanes
			Jean-Francois Berube					Michael Leighton
			Record					Record
			15-16-8					19-15-7
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.72	2.97	14.80%	80.00%	Team Stats	2.61	2.61	17.80%	88.50%

Backed by a John Tavares hat trick the New York Islanders were able to pull the rabbit out of the hat and defeat the Florida Panthers last night by a score of 5-2. I wouldn’t expect that are too many other rabbits in that hat as the team they face tonight has proven to be a much better team where home ice advantage is concerned. Tavares skates on the top line with Anders Lee and Josh Bailey and will probably be the line that folks target for their GPP plays tonight based on last night’s performance. That may be a fatal mistake with so many other teams in action tonight and its highly unlikely that the Islanders can repeat the feat tonight. Nick Leddy racked up three points in last night’s game which now gives him 20 on the season from the back line. He is the choice over Johnny Boychuk tonight as he not only leads him by six points he gets more than four more minutes of ice time on a nightly basis as well. Brock Nelson has two line mates in Ryan Strome and Andrew Ladd so if you are feeling lucky maybe take a shot on this line as a GPP play and try to catch lightning in a bottle. Otherwise considering anyone but John Tavares for a cash game play would not be wise in the situation the Islanders are in tonight.

The Hurricanes continue to be in the playoff picture thanks to their 14-4-1 record in front of the home crowd. They seem to have an easy two points for the taking here against an Islander team that has only won five games on the road all season. Carolina has pulled within three points of the fifth place Philadelphia Flyers in the Metropolitan Division with a 20-15-7 record. Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask and Derek make up the team’s top line while seeing a good chunk of the power play time when the Hurricanes draw a penalty. Skinner added to his tam leading total of 35 points with two goals and an assist in last night’s 5-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres. Meanwhile, Rask has tried to keep pace as he has lit the lamp 13 times and has 19 assists so far this season. If you want to deviate from the top line I’d take a look at Teuvo Teravainen and Sebastian Aho as they have combined for 44 points in the 42 games that Carolina has played this season. Carolina has scored five power play goals in the last four games so sticking with the top line here is the way to go. Noah Hanifin and Justin Faulk man the points on the top power play unit so either one looks like a good option here. Faulk is the better choice however as he has accumulated 108 shots on goal while tallying 18 points in the 35 games he has suited up for. Conversely Hanifin has fired 59 shots on net and has come up with just 15 points in 42 games.

Elite Plays

NYI: John Tavares
CAR: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask

Secondary Plays

NYI: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson
CAR: Derek Ryan, Sebastian Aho, Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

Toronto Maple Leafs					Ottawa Senators
			Curtis McElhinney					Mike Condon
			Record					Record
			18-13-8					22-14-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.05	2.85	22.40%	83.60%	Team Stats	2.50	2.55	17.20%	83.30%

The Toronto power play struck for two goals last night in their 4-2 win at Madison Square Garden. The win was the Maple Leafs seventh over the last nine games which now has the team just three points away from second place Boston in the Atlantic Division and two points away for third place against the team they are facing tonight. So yeah, one could call this a big game. Toronto has successfully constructed three decent scoring lines that has been able to light the lamp 20 times over the last five games. Auston Matthews leads the team with 21 goals and 38 assists while his even strength line mate in Connor Brown has racked up four goals and two assists over the last five games. The top line of Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk and Mitchell Marner may be the line to target here as both Marner and van Riemsdyk have combined for 17 points in the last five games. If you add Bozak’s five power play points over that same time frame you get a combined total of 16 points from all three players. Nazem Kadri and William Nylander skate on the team’s ‘third’ line along with Leo Komarov but targeting the former two make sense here. Because the Maple Leafs employ two even power play lines Nylander has been able to lead the team with 15 power play points while Kadri’s eight goals with the man advantage is a team high. This sounds a lot like the Rangers offense with a lot of different lines scoring but it is different in terms of opportunity. What I mean is that Bozak line makes just as good of a play as say Matthews as a one-off or a pairing of Kadri and Nylander as all six of these players occupy the top six spots on the maple Leafs scoring chart with each contributing in a different way. Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev see the extra time on the power play that has scored two goals in each of the last four games. This gives them an edge over fellow defensemen Morgan Rielly based on opportunity alone. Gardiner is the choice here as he has registered eight of his 22 points with the man advantage.

With two big wins over the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Edmonton Oilers, the Ottawa Senators will now go for the trifecta and beat the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight on home ice. The crucial wins have put the senators right on the heels of the Boston Bruins for second place in the Atlantic Division. Like most clubs these days Ottawa has shuffled up their lines a bit in a quest to get the most scoring out of a three line system. Their top power play unit is comprised of a player from each of the top three lines while Erik Karlsson and Dion Phaneuf try to batten down the hatches from the blue line. Karlsson leads the team with 27 assists and 34 points while Phaneuf has tailed off a bit but still has eight of his 16 points with the man advantage. As stated above the senators will try to run three scoring lines tonight against a Toronto team that played in New York last night at Madison Square Garden. Kyle Turris , Bobby Ryan and Ryan Dzingel appear to be the top line here as they surely have enough talent but it’s been Turris who has been leading the way with from this group with 14 goals and 14 assists. He is also the lucky recipient from this line to play on the top power play unit along with Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone. Hoffman is the one-off play here as he leads the team with eight power play goals and has recorded 28 points so far this season. Stone can be paired with Derick Brassard as they skate at even strength along with Zack Smith. Stone has three goals and five points over the last five games which has him at 32 points in 39 games. Ottawa should be able to score a few tonight so make sure you have the pairs correct for optimal results.

Elite Plays

TOR: Auston Matthews
OTT: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson

Secondary Plays

TOR: Mitchell Marner, James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, William Nylander, Jake Gardiner
OTT: Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Derick Brassard, Ryan Dzingel

Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings

Pittsburgh Penguins					Detroit Red Wings
			Matt Murray					Petr Mrazek
			Record					Record
			26-10-5					17-19-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.41	2.85	22.80%	78.30%	Team Stats	2.38	2.95	11.40%	82.50%

The worst thing that could have happened to the Pittsburgh Penguins appears to be to have the week off that the league gave them from New Year’s Eve to January 8th. Pittsburgh was able to beat Tampa on home ice by the score of 6-2 but have dropped their first two road games of the New Year to Washington and Ottawa as they head into Detroit tonight. The Penguins are another team that can breathe a little easier after a few losses as their 57 points has them in third place in the Metropolitan Division which is just three points away from the Eastern Conference lead. Sidney Crosby and Conor Sheary make for a decent GPP play as there’s no doubt that the Red Wings will try to shut down the top line of Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist and Carl Hagelin. At least that’s how I would play it if I were Detroit head coach Jeff Blashill. Even if he doesn’t match his lines up that way Crosby, Malkin and Hornqvist are joined by third liner Phil Kessel and defenseman Kris Letang to form the team’s top power play unit. In recent Grind Down articles I spoke about how Kessel has been looking to pass more and set his team mates up for goals as he is tied with Malkin for the team lead with 28 assists so far this season. Obviously Kessel makes for a decent one-off play here as 18 of his 41 points have come with the man advantage. Letang is the play from the point as he has found the score sheet three times in the four games he has played in since returning from injury. Detroit has given up 15 goals in the last three games which makes the Penguins a decent play in either cash or tournament contests tonight.

After getting beat up on the road a bit the Red Wings will return home to try and work on their 7-10-3 record in front of the nice folks at the Joe Louis Arena. This may be a difficult task however as the Penguins are second in the league with 142 goals to their credit. The top line of Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha and Gustav Nyquist should be the line to target tonight as they should have the juicy match ups throughout the night. Zetterberg leads the team with 13 points on home ice while Nyquist has managed three goals and eight assists in the 20 home games the Red Wings have played so far. Zetterberg also leads the team in points with 30 points while Mantha has racked up ten of his 20 points over the last nine games. Thomas Vanek and Frans Nielsen skate on the second line with Andreas Athanasiou and could be in play here as a deeper tournament play. Vanek has three goals and four assists in the last six games while Athanasiou is just one assist behind him over the same time frame. Dylan Larkin can always be used as a one-off here as he skates on the third line while leading the team with 114 shots on goal. His 11 goals ties him with Mantha for the team lead but has only recorded five assists so far this season. Mike Green has returned to play the point on the team’s top power play unit. Green usually logs over 24 minutes of ice time per game and has lit the lamp seven times to go with 11 assists in just 34 games played. He really is their only ‘offensive defensive’ option if you want to go with the Detroit side of things tonight.

Elite Plays

PIT: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin
DET: Henrik Zetterberg

Secondary Plays

PIT: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, Patric Hornqvist, Conor Sheary
DET: Anthony Mantha, Thomas Vanek, Frans Nielsen, Dylan Larkin, Mike Green

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