NHL Grind Down: Thursday, January 12th
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers
| Vancouver Canucks | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | Ryan Miller |  | Steve Mason | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 20-19-4 | 21-16-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.37 | 2.84 | 13.70% | 80.70% | Team Stats | 2.79 | 3.00 | 21.90% | 81.10% |
After surprisingly rattling off six straight victories, the Canucks have fallen back to earth in both previous games on their current three game road trip. Before heading back to British Columbia, they’ll head to the City of Brotherly Love to battle a Philadelphia team that is struggling in their own right. While Philadelphia is definitely not one of the more defensively sound teams in the NHL this season (3.00 goals against per game), the Canucks have averaged just 2.37 goals per game this season and it’s tough to trust them in cash games with 17 other teams to choose from tonight. With that said, Willie Desjardins does have two rather dangerous scoring lines that offer some GPP appeal. The Sedin twins may be well passed their prime, but they’re still a dangerous tandem on the top line and their linemate, Loui Eriksson, is far too offensively talented to be having such a poor season. Those three will probably draw the most attention just from name recognition, but it’s Bo Horvat who happens to lead the team with 29 points and who will be their lone representative in the NHL All-Star game later this month. Horvat saw his seven game point streak snapped on Tuesday, but the 21-year old former first-round pick has been red-hot lately; posting five goals and eight assists over the last 14 games. He’s slated to be joined by capable scorers in Sven Baertschi and Alexandre Burrows on the second line and those three likely have a slightly better matchup considering the fact that Sean Couturier will likely be tasked with slowing down the Sedin line. On defense, there’s nothing to get too excited about for Vancouver. Alex Edler finally looks to be back to full health and Troy Stecher will absorb nearly all of the available playing time on the point of the Vancouver power-play. Both of their ceilings are somewhat limited, but they’re in play if you’re in need of some salary relief.
“It wasn’t long ago that this Philadelphia team strung ten wins together, but things have certainly turned around on them since that point. They’ll return home after dropping both games on their recent two-game road trip and now own an ugly 2-6-3 record since that previously mentioned winning streak. However, they’re finally basically at full health and wake up this morning still in fine shape for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. With a solid 13-6-3 record at the Wells Fargo Center this season and the favorable matchup awaiting them against the Canucks, there’s plenty of merit behind targeting the Flyers this evening. Up-front, Dave Hakstol continues to mess with his forward lines to the chagrin of DFS players everywhere. With that in mind, I’ll be narrowing down my focus to the Philadelphia power-play that has clicked at a 21.9% clip this season. Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek headline the top power-play unit with Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn also joining them down-low. Voracek leads the Flyers with 39 points in 43 games and has been absolutely dominant on home ice where he owns 12 goals and 17 assists in just 22 home games. Meanwhile, Brayden Schenn will draw far less attention but has potted goals in back-to-back games and owns four goals and three assists over his last seven games. On defense, Shayne Gostisbehere remains a dangerous weapon from the point of the #1 power-play unit. With 102 shots on goal already this season, he provided the high-floor you should be targeting in cash games and his offensive abilities also make him a fine GPP option, as well. Alternatively, Ivan Provorov is quickly showing why he was selected seventh overall in the 2015 draft. He’s picked up an assist in each of the last three games and is locked into 20+ minutes of ice-time per game, with a very healthy dose of those minutes coming as the quarterback of the #2 power-play unit.
“
Vancouver Canucks
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 48.42 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -12, 104.34 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Daniel Sedin ($6,200 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.73 CF60, 2.09 xGF60, 101.05 PDO
Bo Horvat ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 49.7 CF60, 2.54 xGF60, 101.6 PDO
Henrik Sedin ($5,400 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.21 CF60, 2.01 xGF60, 100.05 PDO
Sven Baertschi ($5,000 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 47.52 CF60, 2.54 xGF60, 102.88 PDO
Alex Edler ( FD, DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.69 CF60, 2.18 xGF60, 98.38 PDO
Expected Netminder
Ryan Miller – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Philadelphia Flyers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.27 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -17, 113.37 CP60
Elite Options
Claude Giroux ($7,600 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.24 CF60, 2.24 xGF60, 97.79 PDO
Jakub Voracek ($7,200 FD, $6,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.43 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 97.17 PDO
Shayne Gostisbehere ($5,400 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.07 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 96.68 PDO
Secondary Options
Wayne Simmonds ($7,000 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.74 CF60, 2.23 xGF60, 98.38 PDO
Brayden Schenn ($6,300 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.87 CF60, 2.18 xGF60, 98.49 PDO
Ivan Provorov ($4,600 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.31 CF60, 1.93 xGF60, 99.26 PDO
Expected Netminder
Steve Mason – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Matt Murray |  | Mike Condon | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 26-9-5 | 21-14-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.48 | 2.83 | 23.20% | 79.00% | Team Stats | 2.46 | 2.59 | 16.30% | 82.90% |
Columbus and Montreal may be the division leaders in the Eastern Conference, but it’s becoming very clear that the Pittsburgh Penguins are going to defend their Stanley Cup with a vengeance. They came up short against the Washington Capitals last night but had won five straight games prior and own a very impressive 13-2-2 record since the beginning of December. The Penguins averaged an NHL best 3.48 goals per game this season and boast the most dangerous 1-2 punch in the entire NHL. Sidney Crosby leads the charge and sits just three points behind Connor McDavid for the NHL lead with 45 points (in just 34 games). Both Conor Sheary and Bryan Rust are lucky enough to skate alongside him on the Penguin’s top forward line and that makes them both fine options this evening. In fact, pairing one (or both) of them with Crosby is an excellent way to easily absorb Crosby’s big-ticket asking price. It’s worth noting that Rust exploded for three goals and an assist in the first meeting between these two teams and his asking price remains well under market value considering his role. Alternatively, Evgeni Malkin headlines the second line alongside Patric Hornqvist and Carl Hagelin. Malkin scored a goal and added two assists in that first meeting with Ottawa and also sees plenty of playing time alongside Crosby on the Penguins lethal #1 power-play unit. Also on that power-play is the often overlooked Phil Kessel who played through an illness last night and extended his scoring streak to five games. On defense, Kris Letang has returned to action and regained his job as the point-man on the #1 power-play unit. While he’s the #1 option, Justin Schultz continues to produce even Letang back in action. Schultz has picked up points in six straight games and has now racked up seven goals and 14 assists in his last 18 games.
Ottawa finally snapped a four game losing skid with an impressive home victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday night and should be well rested for tonight’s important battle against the Penguins. While the Senators do draw a bit of a break thanks to the fact that Pittsburgh was in action last night, the Penguins did hang a “snowman” on them in their only previous meeting this season and Ottawa will need to be at their best if they want to escape with two points this evening. Pittsburgh is undeniably one of the most lethal offensive teams in the NHL, but they do play at one of the quickest tempos in the league and subsequently have surrendered 2.77 goals against per game this season. Unlike most teams in the NHL, Ottawa’s top fantasy option can be found on the blue-line as Erik Karlsson not only leads the Senators with 32 points on the young season, but is also arguably the most offensively gifted defensemen in the NHL these days. He torched the Penguins for a goal and three assists in that first meeting and is a fine option for all formats tonight if you have some extra spending money. Offensively, Guy Boucher is doing his best to create a balanced offensive attack by spreading out his most dangerous offensive weapons across the top three forward lines. Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Zach Smith, Mike Hoffman Derick Brassard and Bobby Ryan are all more than capable offensively and all six also see a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage. If i’m stuck picking between them, I’d lean toward the speedy Kyle Turris and Mike Hoffman in what could be a track meet type of matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.5 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 17, 118.69 CP60
Elite Options
None
Evgeni Malkin ($8,600 FD, $7,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.37 CF60, 3.1 xGF60, 102.02 PDO
Kris Letang ($7,200 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.32 CF60, 3.17 xGF60, 98.03 PDO
Justin Schultz ($6,000 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.39 CF60, 3.24 xGF60, 103.01 PDO
Secondary Options
Phil Kessel ($7,600 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.75 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 103.65 PDO
Conor Sheary ($5,300 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.3 CF60, 3.68 xGF60, 102.02 PDO
Bryan Rust ($3,900 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.31 CF60, 3.25 xGF60, 96.17 PDO
Patric Hornqvist ($7,000 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 71.52 CF60, 3.9 xGF60, 100.85 PDO
Expected Netminder
Matt Murray – My Ratings (out of 10): 7 Cash, 7 GPP
Ottawa Senators
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.69 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -5, 113.07 CP60
Elite Options
Erik Karlsson ($7,300 FD, $6,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.04 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 99.62 PDO
Secondary Options
Kyle Turris ($5,700 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.33 CF60, 2.34 xGF60, 101.88 PDO
Mike Hoffman ($6,500 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.27 CF60, 2.38 xGF60, 101.58 PDO
Mark Stone ($6,400 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.26 CF60, 2.79 xGF60, 99.57 PDO
Zack Smith ($4,700 FD, $4,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.63 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 100.84 PDO
Bobby Ryan ($4,800 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.95 CF60, 2.21 xGF60, 102.06 PDO
Expected Netminder
Mike Condon – My Ratings (out of 10): 3 Cash, 5 GPP
Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning
| Buffalo Sabres | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Robin Lehner |  | Andrei Vasilevskiy | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 16-15-9 | 19-19-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.30 | 2.63 | 22.30% | 73.90% | Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.98 | 23.50% | 79.40% |
Tim Murray seems to have this Buffalo Sabres organization headed in the right direction finally, but they don’t quite seem to be ready to make the leap to playoff contenders in the 2016-17 season. Buffalo will enter tonight’s action having won two straight games and will kick off a quick two-game road trip this evening in Tampa Bay. Amalie Arena has been an unfriendly stop for visitors in recent seasons, but the Lightning are really struggling right now, so this doesn’t appear to be nearly as tough of a task it may appear. Like many other coaches in the NHL this season, Dan Bylsma seems dead set on creating a balanced scoring attack by “hiding” marginally skilled players in the rotation of his top nine. This does give the likes of Brian Gionta, Marcus Foligno, Will Carrier and Justin Bailey some intrigue at first glance, but it’s fools gold to some degree. Instead, keep your attention focused firmly on the true offensive talents that carry the load offensively for Buffalo. Ryan O’Reilly and Sam Reinhart have both been red-hot lately, combining for two goals and ten assists in just four games this month. Those two join Jack Eichel and Kyle Okposo up-front on the Sabres #1 power-play unit and that should bode well for all four considering Tampa’s subpar 79.1% penalty kill. On defense, Rasmus Ristolainen continues to be pushing himself towards the elite status of blue-liners. He’s not only posted a very solid 27 points in 40 games, but is averaging nearly 27 minutes of ice-time per game and ranks in the top 25 in blocked shots as well.
The Tampa Bay Lightning made a deep playoff run last season without their Captain Steven Stamkos, but John Cooper’s squad just unable to match the energy levels they exuded last year. With just 42 points in 42 games and having dropped all four games this month, this team will likely be making early spring tee-times unless something dramatic changes. If you’ve watched much of the Lightning this season, one thing is pretty clear; Nikita Kucherov is extremely dangerous offensively. The 23 year-old has exploded for 16 goals and 23 assists in just 35 games and lit the lamp when these two teams squared off earlier this season. Kucherov is slated to be joined on the top forward line by Ondrej Palat and Vladislav Namestnikov which is obviously good news for those two, but a terrible development for Tyler Johnson. The move seems a bit peculiar considering that Johnson had been heating up lately while playing alongside Palat and Kucherov. Instead, Namestnikov becomes a very fine value option and he’s shown plenty of offensive upside with a goal and two assists in his last four games. Johnson still joins Kucherov and Palat on the #1 power-play unit which minimizes the damage to some degree, but there’s no way to spin this change as a favorable one for the speedy center. Like Johnson, Jonathan Drouin also seems a bit left-out in John Cooper’s current setup, but the former third overall pick is showing an ability to create his own offense. Drouin scored a goal and added an assist against Pittsburgh on Sunday and has now scored eight goals and dished out eight assists in 16 home games this season. On defense, Victor Hedman holds the reigns as the point-man on the #1 power-play unit and is the top option. He’s not cheap, but he’s posted 21 points in 20 home games this season and has been absolutely scorching hot down the stretch; tallying a pair of goals and 16 assists over his last 13 games.
Buffalo Sabres
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.2 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -4, 108.28 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan O’Reilly ($6,400 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.07 CF60, 2.68 xGF60, 101.09 PDO
Rasmus Ristolainen ($6,200 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.5 CF60, 2.33 xGF60, 101.39 PDO
Secondary Options
Evander Kane ($6,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.66 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 97.95 PDO
Jack Eichel ($7,300 FD, $7,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.19 CF60, 1.92 xGF60, 103.42 PDO
Kyle Okposo ($6,400 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.12 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 100.43 PDO
Sam Reinhart ($5,800 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.87 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 102.47 PDO
Expected Netminder
Robin Lehner – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.04 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -14, 107.71 CP60
Elite Options
Nikita Kucherov ($7,900 FD, $7,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.2 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 103.08 PDO
Victor Hedman ($7,200 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.98 CF60, 2.42 xGF60, 100.05 PDO
Secondary Options
Jonathan Drouin ($6,400 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.19 CF60, 2.39 xGF60, 98.87 PDO
Vladislav Namestnikov ($4,700 FD, $4,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.94 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 98.1 PDO
Tyler Johnson ($5,700 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.55 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 97.99 PDO
Anton Stralman ($4,300 FD, $3,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.94 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 100 PDO
Expected Netminder
Ben Bishop – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Montréal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild
| Montréal Canadiens | Minnesota Wild | ||||||||
 | Carey Price |  | Devan Dubnyk | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 26-10-6 | 25-9-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.12 | 2.38 | 21.60% | 79.30% | Team Stats | 3.13 | 2.13 | 19.10% | 85.80% |
In a battle between two of the best goaltenders in the world, Montreal will invade the Xcel Energy Center in what figures to be a very tightly contested defensive hockey game. As you’d expect with the likes of Carey Price and Devan Dubnyk predominantly between the pipes, both of these teams rank near the top of the NHL in most defensive categories. Minnesota enters having allowed just 2.13 goals per game while the Canadiens are not too far behind having surrendered just 2.34 goals per game themselves. While this should be an entertaining game to watch as a fan of the game, I don’t expect it to be overly friendly from a fantasy perspective and therefore I’ll be limiting my exposure. Montreal will certainly have their hands full tonight as, to add to Minnesota’s top notch defense, the Wild also own a very impressive 13-4-0 record on home ice. With several key injuries depleting the Canadiens’ forward depth (ie: David Desharnais, Alex Galchenyuk, Andrew Shaw, Brendan Gallagher and Tomas Plekanec) the weight of the Montreal scoring falls firmly on their Captain, Max Pacioretty. Pacioretty has been up to the task thus far and finds himself with a team best 19 goals and 15 assists in 41 games this season. Joining him on the top line is KHL defector Alexander Radulov and former first-round pick Phillip Danault. Radulov is wielding a hot stick right now as he’s racked up four goals and five assists in the last eight games while Danault has taken advantage of his new opportunities (two goals and three assists in his last four games). On defense, Shea Weber is the clear #1 option, but both Nathan Beaulieu and Jeff Petry have played their way into cash game consideration for at least as long as Andrei Markov remains sidelined. Minnesota does own a rock solid 85.8% penalty kill, however, so be sure to keep your expectations in check.
Moving to the Minnesota side of things, facing Carey Price is a daunting task and, as mentioned above, I don’t want much exposure to this game from an offensive standpoint. With that said, Minnesota does own a 14-1-1 record over their last 16 games and did skate to a 4-2 victory when these two teams met in Montreal last month. While Minnesota has benefited from a pretty balanced scoring attack, it is their top line of Zach Parise, Eric Staal and Charlie Coyle that deserves the most attention tonight. Staal has looked rejuvenated with his new team and leads Minnesota with 35 points in 39 games. He lit the lamp against Montreal in that first meeting and has poured in seven goals and ten assists over the last 13 games. Parise is having a bit of a down season by his standards, but he’s also starting to heat up as evidenced by four goals and seven assists in his last 11 games. If Montreal puts too much emphasis on trying to slow them down, then the trio of Jason Zucker, Mikko Koivu and Mikael Granlund can make them pay in a hurry. Koivu started off the season slowly but is clearly gaining a nice rapport with former first-round pick Mikael Granlund. Granlund dished out of a pair of assists against Montreal in their first battle and has posted seven goals and ten assists in 17 home games this season. On defense, Ryan Suter continues to see all the minutes he can handle for Bruce Boudreau. He anchors the top power-play unit and can rack up fantasy points in just about every conceivable category. Behind him, Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon all also see a healthy dose of playing time with the man-advantage. All of their ceilings are capped rather low, but Montreal’s 79.5% penalty kill does make them viable punt options.
Montreal Canadiens
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 52.28 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 27, 116.94 CP60
Elite Options
Max Pacioretty ($7,600 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.95 CF60, 2.93 xGF60, 100.09 PDO
Secondary Options
Alexander Radulov ($6,500 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.67 CF60, 2.97 xGF60, 101.23 PDO
Phillip Danault ($4,400 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.15 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 97.81 PDO
Shea Weber ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.6 CF60, 2.67 xGF60, 102.53 PDO
Jeff Petry ($5,500 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 67.63 CF60, 3.15 xGF60, 102.34 PDO
Nathan Beaulieu ($4,200 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.67 CF60, 2.76 xGF60, 105.27 PDO
Expected Netminder
Carey Price – My Ratings (out of 10): 8 Cash, 9 GPP
Minnesota Wild
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 48.17 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 26, 111.42 CP60
Elite Options
Eric Staal ($6,600 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.45 CF60, 2.95 xGF60, 101.39 PDO
Secondary Options
Zach Parise ($7,400 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.04 CF60, 2.79 xGF60, 99.74 PDO
Charlie Coyle ($6,100 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.4 CF60, 2.51 xGF60, 100.5 PDO
Mikael Granlund ($6,200 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.64 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 106.4 PDO
Mikko Koivu ($6,100 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.96 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 105.78 PDO
Ryan Suter ($5,700 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.04 CF60, 2.45 xGF60, 105.75 PDO
Expected Netminder
Devan Dubnyk – My Ratings (out of 10): 8.5 Cash, 8.5 GPP
Boston Bruins at Nashville Predators
| Boston Bruins | Nashville Predators | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Pekka Rinne | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 22-17-5 | 18-16-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.45 | 2.43 | 15.60% | 87.10% | Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.63 | 18.80% | 82.70% |
The Bruins have been extremely inconsistent this season, but after defeating the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday night, they’ll look to get back-to-back wins for just the second time since the first week of December. While the results have been mediocre to some degree, there are some very positive signs pointing towards a strong finish to the season in Beantown. This team is rated as the top puck possession team in the entire NHL (55.32 CF%) and consequently they also own an NHL low 2.01 xGA60. Tonight they’ll head to the shadows of RotoGrinders headquarters for a tough test as the Nashville Predators own a solid 11-5-5 record at the Bridgestone Arena this season. Offensively, it’s a two-headed attack for Claude Julien. The trio of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak continue to lead the charge on the top forward line, with David Krejci headlining a very dangerous secondary scoring line alongside David Backes and Frank Vatrano. Among skaters with 400+ minutes of ice-time, Bergeron, Marchand and Pastrnak all rank in the top five in Corsi For Percentage which highlights their puck possession abilities and offensive aggressiveness. Marchand leads the team with 38 points in 44 games and has erupted for five goals in the last three games while Pastrnak still owns the team lead with 19 goals at the mid-way point of the season. Bergeron was very slow out of the gates this season, but he’s starting to turn things around as he’s scored three goals and added four assists over the last seven games. Vatrano has put up some gaudy offensive numbers at the AHL level (36 goals and 19 assists in 36 games last season) and potted a goal and an assist on Tuesday making him one of the top value plays on the board tonight. On defense, Torey Krug is a terrific fantasy option on a nightly basis. He also scored a goal and dished out an assist on Tuesday and his offensive assertiveness has resulted in 122 shots on goal already this season, making him an elite option in cash games.
Nashville picked up an overtime win over the Vancouver Canucks (with one second left on the clock) on Tuesday night and will wrap up a very short homestand tonight against the Boston Bruins before departing on a tough five game road trip. They currently find themselves just one point out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and, with that long road-trip looming, this game takes on some added importance. With James Neal still likely watching from the press box, the duo of Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg will continue to be asked to carry the weight offensively. Johanson leads the club with 29 points and has performed quite well on home ice where he’s racked up four goals and 13 assists in just 21 games this season. Those two are slated to be joined by impressive sophomore Viktor Arvidsson on Nashville’s top forward line. Arvidsson has unloaded a team high 123 shots on goal thus far this season and is still very reasonably priced across the industry, making him a fine option on the wing if you’re searching for some salary relief. Mike Fisher has come alive lately with two goals and five assists over the last seven games and always seems to play well in front of the Nashville faithful. He figures to avoid the tough matchup opposite Bergeron/Marchand for the most part and joins joins forces with Johansen on the #1 power-play unit, solidifying him as a fine target in all game formats as well. On defense, the team is still without P.K. Subban, but there is still plenty to like. Roman Josi is a known commodity and locked into as many minutes as he can handle. He’ll facilitate things from the point of the #1 power-play but Boston’s terrific (87.1%) penalty kill makes it tougher than usual to justify his big-ticket asking price. Behind him, both Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis are seeing some added responsibilities as they fill in for Subban.
Boston Bruins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 55.32 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 0, 113.45 CP60
Elite Options
Brad Marchand ($7,100 FD, $6,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 71.96 CF60, 2.99 xGF60, 97.59 PDO
David Pastrnak ($6,600 FD, $7,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 73.09 CF60, 3.15 xGF60, 101.71 PDO
Torey Krug ($6,300 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.28 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 97.57 PDO
Secondary Options
Patrice Bergeron ($6,800 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 70.46 CF60, 2.67 xGF60, 97.72 PDO
David Krejci ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.65 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 97.52 PDO
David Backes ($5,600 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.44 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 98.69 PDO
Frank Vatrano ($4,500 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.2 CF60, 2.66 xGF60, 97.39 PDO
Zdeno Chara ($4,500 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.56 CF60, 2.73 xGF60, 98.73 PDO
Expected Netminder
Tuukka Rask – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Nashville Predators
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.62 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 10, 115.06 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan Johansen ($6,700 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 68.33 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 99.57 PDO
Roman Josi ($6,300 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.72 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 98.93 PDO
Secondary Options
Filip Forsberg ($7,000 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 61.65 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 100.05 PDO
Mike Fisher ($4,900 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.69 CF60, 2.28 xGF60, 100.41 PDO
Mattias Ekholm ($4,700 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.82 CF60, 2.51 xGF60, 100.03 PDO
Ryan Ellis ($4,800 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.88 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 101.54 PDO
Expected Netminder
Pekka Rinne – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP