NHL Grind Down: Thursday, March 16th - Page Two
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Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators
| Chicago Blackhawks | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Corey Crawford |  | Mike Condon | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 44-20-5 | 39-22-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.96 | 2.50 | 18.60% | 78.00% | Team Stats | 2.66 | 2.59 | 17.50% | 82.00% |
Blackhawks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 51.9 CF% / 56.5 GF% / 48.1 xGF%
Senators 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 49.1 CF% / 47.6 GF% / 48.6 xGF%
After taking care of business in Montreal two nights ago, the Blackhawks will look to stay hot against the Senators in Ottawa tonight. Patrick Kane is in one of his zones, making him a tough fade almost any given night reminiscent of last year. He and Artemi Panarin will likely have a new, temporary center as Artem Anisimov was injured last game. Tanner Kero seems likely to step up, vaulting himself into the value play discussion. He’s a low floor, low ceiling play, but he grants immediate exposure to two elite wingers. On home ice, Ottawa almost exclusively uses the Jean-Gabriel Pageau forward line and Erik Karlsson Methot”:/players/marc-methot-14459 defensive pairing against opposing top lines at 5v5. There should be volume there for the taking for Kane and Anisimov, and with Craig Anderson working through an injury, they could bring some pain to Mike Condon’s ratios. Ottawa as a whole does a pretty good job reducing the number of high-danger shot attempts against, and Condon has been pretty strong year-to-date against such shots. When Chicago is hot they can burn up the boxscore, and with volume likely to be available to them, they have a sneaky good matchup here. That said, the road draw is less than perfect so expectations should be tempered some. Ottawa is clinging to a playoff spot and will likely try to play a low event, slower paced game so as to avoid a track meet with Chicago’s playmakers.
It doesn’t look like the Sens will get Mark Stone back in time for this game, so the offense takes a pretty big hit. On top of the talent loss, the Blackhawks have started to see some improvement in their 5v5 defensive metrics, including high-danger and overall shot attempts allowed, although they have allowed 40 shots to reach net in consecutive games. Corey Crawford is one of the stronger 5v5 goalies, so when his defense is avoiding crucial breakdowns, he is a tough netminder to beat. Ottawa clocks in just inside the bottom 10 teams in 5v5 xGF/60, and without Stone, offense could be at a premium. As Mike Hoffman has been playing next to Pageau, he should see time at 5v5 against the Kane line. This introduces a potentially high event matchup, especially with Erik Karlsson on the ice, and offers Ottawa their best chance at generating quality scoring chances. Derick Brassard has been a pretty good driver of play for Ottawa this year, but he is slightly washed out with diminished quality wingers.
Blackhawks Elite Plays:Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin
Blackhawks Secondary Plays:Jonathan Toews, Tanner Kero (GPP), Richard Panik, Ryan Hartman
Senators Elite Plays:Erik Karlsson
Senators Secondary Plays:Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Frederik Andersen |  | Andrei Vasilevskiy | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 31-23-14 | 34-26-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.05 | 2.86 | 23.50% | 82.90% | Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.69 | 22.40% | 80.90% |
Maple Leafs 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50.4 CF% / 52.1 GF% / 52.3 xGF%
Lightning 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 54 CF% / 57 GF% / 51.5 xGF%
After being torn to bits by the Panthers in their last game, the Maple Leafs need to pick up a win in the worst way tonight against the Lightning. Even though this is a young team, they have one of the best coaches in the league and Toronto should avoid coming out flat after the big loss. Despite some injuries up front, this is not a favorable matchup for the Leafs. Tampa Bay does a good job at limiting shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger shot attempts. They’ve also got a good enough penalty kill at 80.9% effectiveness. To top things off, opposing goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is running hot at the moment, posting a quality start in five straight efforts (six goals allowed total). There aren’t many holes in the Tampa Bay defense, but more critically is figuring out which line Victor Hedman plays against. It’s likely that he sees a little bit of time against the top three lines; when these two teams met up at the end of December that was indeed the case. Toronto is, of course, loaded with young talent and is becoming more of a matchup nightmare for enemy defenses than vice versa. For now, though, there are some concerns with tonight’s matchup. We saw the key forwards struggle in Florida and Tampa Bay’s numbers don’t look much worse. The center of the ice may be how to attack the Lightning due to injuries to Tyler Johnson, Vladislav Namestnikov, and even Cedric Paquette.
Expect the Leafs to tighten things up considerably after the Panthers scored a touchdown and nailed the extra point against Toronto in their last game. Cam Newton looked good out there. Tampa Bay’s war of attrition at the center position is in not going so well, as the Lightning have had Jonathan Drouin slide to the middle of the ice on the second line. For DFS purposes, the injuries aren’t too much of a concern as the top six is still mostly usable. As far as game theory goes, expect some decent ownership here even on a 12 game slate as people look at Toronto’s previous game. While Toronto has issues in their own zone, Frederik Andersen had played pretty well prior to…that. This figures to be a pretty mid-to-high event game, so don’t overlook the value of guys like Jonathan Drouin. Victor Hedman is in a great spot tonight as well as Toronto has really struggled against enemy puck moving defenders.
Maple Leafs Elite Plays: None
Maple Leafs Secondary Plays:Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri, William Nylander
Lightning Elite Plays:Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Drouin, Victor Hedman
Lightning Secondary Plays:Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn
Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers
| Boston Bruins | Edmonton Oilers | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Cam Talbot | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-26-6 | 36-24-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.81 | 2.57 | 20.30% | 86.40% | Team Stats | 2.75 | 2.59 | 21.30% | 79.80% |
Bruins 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 55.5 CF% / 47.2 GF% / 55.4 xGF%
Oilers 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47.9 CF% / 56.4 GF% / 50.1 xGF%
The Bruins playing back-to-back and three in four while in Western Canada is sub-optimal. On the plus side, despite their efforts the Oilers remain a below average team. This is a defense that the Bruins skilled offense should be able to take advantage of. Edmonton’s CF% isn’t on the same wavelength as Boston’s, and it’s not exactly close. The Bruins theoretically have a major advantage but fatigue concerns are real. Edmonton’s defensive personnel should struggle to keep up with Boston’s forwards, so once again the Bruins’ top six is a top play while the third line even draws GPP interest. Workhorse Cam Talbot has been pretty strong overall at 5v5, but he’s been only average on high-danger shots. Boston is still realizing a major correction in their realized goals-for percentage compared to expected, so betting against them is dangerous at the moment. Talbot is nothing more than a contrarian GPP play while Boston may go a little underowned after playing in Calgary last night.
Boston sat Tuukka Rask last night against Calgary so Connor McDavid won’t get a boost tonight. On top of that, he’s been playing a fair amount against opposing top lines. Assuming that’s the case again tonight, this is a poor matchup for McDavid and his lofty DFS salary becomes unfavorable very quickly. Patrice Bergeron and the top line is as close to a shy-away unit as it gets. The second line becomes quickly interesting yet almost immediately dissuading; Jordan Eberle has struggled mightily away from McJesus, Milan Lucic is center dependent outside the power play, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the ultimate tease. Even with Boston in an unfavorable scheduling spot this is a tough time to trust the Oilers, especially the secondary scorers. Tuukka Rask has struggled with high-danger shot attempts, but the Bruins don’t tend to allow many at 5v5.
Bruins Elite Plays:Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak
Bruins Secondary Plays:Torey Krug, David Krejci, Drew Stafford, Frank Vatrano
Oilers Elite Plays: None
Oilers Secondary Plays:Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom
Detroit Red Wings at Arizona Coyotes
| Detroit Red Wings | Arizona Coyotes | ||||||||
 | Petr Mrazek |  | Mike Smith | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 26-31-11 | 26-35-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.37 | 3.01 | 12.60% | 81.60% | Team Stats | 2.35 | 3.18 | 14.90% | 77.90% |
Red Wings 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 47 CF% / 47 GF% / 47 xGF%
Coyotes 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 45.1 CF% / 50 GF% / 43.8 xGF%
After a, um, game in Colorado last night, the Red Wing offense gets a matchup with the sub-par Arizona defense. Who has the better matchup – the Red Wing offense or the Coyote defense? The Coyotes grade out as the worst defense in the league, but the Red Wings are far from the Penguins. This has the feel of a letdown/trap game type spot for the Wings, who have nothing to play for. Arizona has been playing better of late, and Mike Smith is coming off a shutout in his last start. Be wary chasing Arizona’s poor defensive numbers; outside of Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, and Tomas Tatar, the Red Wings are pretty unreliable. Andreas Athanasiou is a CF% darling and his speed should put pressure on the young Arizona defense. Then again, his 12 minutes of ice time per night make him tough to trust outside of a one-off tournament play. While the Coyotes sport an unimpressive defense, the Red Wing forward group is pretty devoid of a solid HDCF/60 outside of Thomas Vanek, who is no longer on the team. Anthony Mantha, who will be a good player in this league, has been a healthy scratch of late, so he can’t be relied upon. All in all, the Wings feel like a DFS trap, and they are best left as secondary plays, especially as their ownership could be a bit higher than it should be on account of the Arizona draw.
This is an interesting setup for Arizona. The forward group has been with a pulse of late, coming off a late victory over the Kings in LA. Tonight they are rested against a traveling Detroit team that played in Colorado last night and didn’t exactly dominate. This sets up certain Coyotes as some nice GPP plays. Detroit has been allowing a fair amount of shot attempts and 5v5 high-danger shot attempts of late. Additionally, Jimmy Howard is unlikely to be in net as he played last night. Petr Mrazek has had a season to forget, to put it mildly – his 5v5 save percentage is among the worst in the league, and he hasn’t excelled in any one area. Radim Vrbata will carry moderate ownership, but he’s the closest thing to a floor player the Coyotes offer. There are some other players to consider in tournaments here, specifically Max Domi and Christian Dvorak on the top line. This trio stayed together on the power in Arizona’s last game, which increases their stacking/pairing appeal.
Red Wings Elite Plays:Henrik Zetterberg
Red Wings Secondary Plays:Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Anthony Mantha (GPP)
Coyotes Elite Plays:Radim Vrbata, Max Domi, Alex Goligoski
Coyotes Secondary Plays:Christian Dvorak, Brendan Perlini, Jakob Chychrun, Tobias Rieder, Anthony DeAngelo (if active)
Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks
| Dallas Stars | Vancouver Canucks | ||||||||
 | Kari Lehtonen |  | Ryan Miller | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 27-32-10 | 28-32-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.76 | 3.21 | 18.00% | 73.90% | Team Stats | 2.26 | 2.88 | 13.60% | 78.20% |
Stars 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 50 CF% / 46.7 GF% / 49.2 xGF%
Canucks 5v5 (adj), past 25 games: 46.3 CF% / 45 GF% / 46.6 xGF%
After being throttled in Edmonton, there are two schools of thought with Dallas right now. One way of thinking is that this team is checked out – the offense-heavy approach didn’t work and the team has mentally surrendered. The other thought is that the veteran core, which is very friendly to DFS, will talk up this team and look to bounce back. And would you look at that, the opponent tonight is ripe for a bounce back effort, even if it’s on the road (where the Stars have not shone bright). If Dallas is going to get it right, it will be tonight. Vancouver has one of the worst high-danger shot attempts allowed at 5v5 over the past few months. Dallas should go well underowned, especially as they were looked over in their last game against Edmonton. Of course, their recent play leads to skepticism, but that creates a value in the ownership game. Again, Vancouver is not good and not playing for anything, so some of the “mailed in” risk is mitigated.
Much of the same can be applied to Vancouver. In their last game, they started out hot against a tough Bruins team before collapsing in the third period. Dallas has some high-end options much like the Bruins do (Tyler Seguin Tyler Seguin Tyler Seguin), but of course the Stars aren’t playing for anything. This is a very favorable matchup for the Canucks. Bo Horvat is of interest again with Dallas struggling mightily at 5v5, but the penalty kill is where Dallas is really beatable. Over their last three games, the Canucks have seen nearly equal power play time assigned to their top two units, so don’t feel like a mandatory Sedin play is in order. That said, playing the likes of Markus Granlund and Reid Boucher are unbelievably low floor plays, so… maybe stick to the name brands with Vancouver.
Stars Elite Plays:Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza, Jamie Benn, Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg
Stars Secondary Plays:Remi Elie (GPP), Brett Ritchie, Radek Faksa
Canucks Elite Plays:Bo Horvat, Daniel Sedin, Sven Baertschi, Alex Edler
Canucks Secondary Plays:Henrik Sedin, Ben Hutton, Brandon Sutter