The Relief Brief: Friday, August 12th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-13 01:56:10

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Friday night features 14 games. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Jake Thompson’s major league debut didn’t quite go as he had hoped. JT allowed six earned runs over four and a third innings against the Padres. Next up, he’ll face the Rockies. Thompson had a K/9 of a hair above six in the minor leagues, so he won’t miss a lot of bats at the major league level either. The Phillies bullpen has the 15th ranked SIERA in baseball on the season, so they’re an average group by that measurement, they do allow a HR/9 rate of 1.25 however. The Phillies also have the fifth worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days.

Joe Musgrove is another youngster who recently made his first big league start. Unlike Jake Thompson, Musgrove has been a success thus far. In his first two starts, Joe has gone for 11.1 innings while allowing six hits and one earned run. He has also struck out 14 batters. Musgrove had a strikeout rate of over 25% in the minors, so the K numbers aren’t too surprising. Tonight, he and the Astros will be facing the Blue Jays. The Astros bullpen is striking out 31.7% of batters over the last 30 days, which is an incredible number. This is not a bullpen that I’m looking to attack, regardless of the opposition, though they do have some important roster movement information listed below.

Patrick Corbin hasn’t reached the six-inning mark in any of his last eight starts. Don’t expect much to change, as he will face the Red Sox in Boston tonight. Corbin has allowed 20 dongs on the season, and the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 1.90 HR/9 rate over the last month. This is a prime spot to attack as we have a below average starting pitcher with a dreadful bullpen that is allowing home runs and walks (12.2% in the last 30 days) left and right.

Tyler Skaggs fell off of his hot pace in his last start. Prior to his last outing, Skaggs had gone 12.1 innings without allowing a run. He allowed four earned runs against the Mariners last time out (including two dongs), and tonight he will face the hot-hitting Indians. Skaggs is a lefty with some strikeout potential, but Cleveland is an above average offense against lefties. The Angles ‘pen is another gas can type unit. Cleveland doesn’t walk a bunch against lefties, but they have been racking up the runs lately and may well get to Skaggs in this one. If they do, they’ll see some chances against this ‘pen.

Paul Clemens has been back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen, but tonight he faces the Mets for his third consecutive start. None of his starts on the season have been impressive, as he has not exceeded five innings in any outing (start or relief) on the season. In 27.1 total innings pitches, Clemens has allowed nine dongs. The Marlins bullpen took a big hit with the loss of A.J. Ramos to injury, and the overall bullpen has not been as good in the last 30 days – to the tune of a 3.91 SIERA. Expect to see plenty of that bullpen tonight.

Do you want to know what makes me angry? No? I’ll tell you anyways – It drives me crazy when major league managers throw out a lineup with seven lefties against a heavily reverse splits pitcher such as Anibal Sanchez (I’m looking at you Terry Collins). I digress. Tonight, Sanchez faces the Rangers. I don’t know what the Rangers plan on doing, but I do know that they have a solid team wOBA of .320 against righties on the season. Sanchez has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen as well, but he has been more reliable lately. In his last four starts, he has a combined 24 innings pitched with nine earned runs and 27 strikeouts. I expect the Rangers to put up a better fight tonight. The Tigers ‘pen is average in most metrics, but Francisco Rodriguez has struggled mightily in his last few appearances, so it could be a unit that is in flux.

Homer Bailey has made two starts since returning this season, and neither has gone very well. Tonight, he faces Brewers in Milwaukee, which is an environment that we like for bats. I don’t expect Bailey to pitch beyond six innings, even if he is pitching well (simply because he truly isn’t stretched out for a big workload). Expect to see that wonderful Reds bullpen taking over sometime around the sixth inning. The Brewers and Chris Carter have been on a bit of a roll at the plate lately, so this may be a spot to attack as well.

Ivan Nova is capable of pitching quality innings as he has done throughout his career. Unfortunately, he’s never done it consistently. Half of his 16 starts on the season have gone for fewer than six innings. He has also given up 21 dongs on the season in just 104.1 innings pitches. Tonight, he faces the Dodgers, who have been heating up as of late. That Pirates bullpen certainly shouldn’t scare you off of Dodger bats tonight. This bullpen owns the 25th worst SIERA in baseball on the season.

If I were going to name this article after a single player that I’ve covered in the brief time of the existence of this article, it would be Dylan Bundy. I wrote about him in the first ever installment of this article, and I will continue to do so because he fascinates me. Bundy is a guy who is getting better (and more stretched out) as the season continues. Tonight, he faces the Giants. Bundy has a very good 9.00 K/9 and allows minimal hard contact. People may be looking to attack Bundy and the Orioles bullpen, but I can’t advise it at this point. The Orioles bullpen is still a liability outside of Britton (25 pitches last night and 11 the night before last), but there’s just not enough appeal here for me.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Cincinnati Reds

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Braves recalled Akeel Morris from AA. He’s been solid in AA this season, but has some control issues. He should be a mid-relief type of arm.

Ken Giles will be unavailable this weekend as he is on the paternity leave list. That is a big blow to the Astros bullpen, but the unit is still elite, even without their star closer. Will Harris is expected to close out games while Giles is absent. Luke Gregerson will be activated from the DL in a corresponding move.

The Orioles called up Donnie Hart from AA. Hart is a lefty with good stuff, and he is expected to be featured against left-handed hitting.

Ben Heller was a part of the trade that sent Andrew Miller to the Cleveland Indians, and now the Yankees will call up the young righty. Heller has had a great season in the minors with a 1.60 ERA. He should fit in nicely.

Pedro Strop has been placed on the 15-day DL with a torn meniscus. Justin Grimm will be recalled from AAA in a corresponding move. Grimm has strikeout upside, but has also allowed a lot of runs in his big league action this season.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Since I began writing this article, I have coined several nicknames for starting pitchers or relief pitchers. If you can name them all, or try and fail miserable, I’ll give you a shout out in the next article and I’ll play you in an h2h match of your choosing.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

Legend