The Relief Brief: Wednesday, August 3rd

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-04 02:07:12

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Wednesday night features a 12 game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Steven Matz has pitched very well in 2016 thanks in part to a large amount of ground balls (over 50 percent). Matz has gone for at least six innings in 13 of his 19 starts on the season, and has gone fewer than five innings only twice. Matz will be facing the Yankees, who own the 27th ranked wOBA vs left-handed pitching. The Mets bullpen is very strong, despite some recent hiccups (seventh best in SIERA and fourth best in strikeout percentage).

I had no intentions of writing up Johnny Cueto and the (still struggling) Giants bullpen, but Madison Bumgarner forced my hand with his five-inning performance against the Phillies. Hunter Strickland, Derek Law, Sergio Romo and newly acquired Will Smith (who took the loss) all pitched in relief against the Phillies. Cueto has been remarkably consistent in his ability to work deep into games this season, and I believe that Bruce Bochy will likely allow Cueto to work through some potential trouble tonight due to the relative fatigue in the ‘pen.

Rob Whalen will get the call up from AAA to start against the Pirates tonight. We don’t know a lot about him, but he has 112 strikeouts over 120 innings in the minors this season. Whalen seems to be relatively stretched out for long outings, as he regularly worked deep into games at the lower levels, but this will be a different challenge for him. The Braves bullpen owns the 24th ranked SIERA in baseball, and should see plenty of work behind a young starter in his first big league game.

The Cincinnati Enquirer reported that Cody Reed is staying in the majors in order to work through his struggles, rather than being sent down to AAA to work through issues against softer opposition (Reds fans, football season draws near). Reed has been getting hit hard (36% hard to lefties, 42 percent hard to righties), and will have the misfortune of facing the Cardinals in The Great American Ballpark (Smallpark) (a tough place to pitch regardless of current form). Let’s recap – we have a gas can starting pitcher who should be in the minors combined with the worst bullpen in baseball.

Brock Stewart has worked his way from high A ball all the way to the big leagues this season, and his strikeout numbers have increased at every level. He started 18 games in the minor leagues this season and never went fewer than five innings or more than seven innings in any of those 18 starst. Tonight, the young righty will get the chance to start against the Rockies at Coors Field. I’m sure he’ll be excited for his second major league start, but we can’t expect him to have too much success here. In his single previous big league start (last week in Milwaukee), Stewart gave up five earned runs over five innings. This could be a truly bad spot for Dodgers pitchers as the bullpen was forced into heavy action thanks to Brandon McCarthy lasting only three innings.

Tyler Anderson is another young pitcher in a tough spot. Last night, Jon Gray pitched very well, but only managed to get through five innings. Anderson will be looking to spare the ‘pen from the same fate of a long night, but that is never an easy task for a starting pitcher at Coors Field. Incredibly, Anderson has gone six straight starts of six or more innings (including four starts at Coors Field). The Dodgers are ranked 28th in team wOBA against lefties on the season. Anderson may be in a sneaky spot to put up another quality start at home, which means we should not be looking to capitalize on the Rockies underwhelming bullpen.

The Cleveland Indians need a good start from Trevor Bauer like Clay Buchholz needs a time machine to go back to 2010. In other words, the Indians desperately need Bauer to go deep into this game. Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco got lit up by the Minnesota Twins, much to the dismay of many DFS players (and to the delight of a few others). Unfortunately for Cleveland, Bauer struggled through the month of July, going no deeper than six innings in any of his previous five starts. The Indians bullpen has thrown 12.1 innings over the last two days, and will be running on fumes should Bauer struggle in this one.

By now, we know that Chris Sale had a freakish incident that is all over and done with. I shall refrain from making any cutting remarks towards him. Now, here we have an ace paired up with a definitely fatigued bullpen. Facing the Tigers in Comerica is never a fun prospect, but Sale has the pedigree and the stuff to step up to the challenge and save his bullpen from another long night. I expect Sale to have a longer leash than normal in this game in the hopes of not having to give too much work to the weak (and tired) White Sox bullpen.

Two starts ago, I went on Twitter (collinman005) and recommended Kendall Graveman as a sneaky good play facing the Tampa Bay Rays. I received many comments, and all were negative. Some even went as far as to call me hurtful names (I’m kidding, but seriously). Graveman went on to toss a complete game and pick up a win, which forced a few folks to eat some crow. Graveman had five starts in July, in which he collected four wins and surrendered a total of 11 earned runs. I can imagine you thinking, “Wow, Collin loves Kendall Graveman. I neither love him nor hate him in this spot or in general. Graveman does excel in limiting hard contact to righties, which should work in his favor with the majority of threats for the Angels coming from the right side. The A’s bullpen has been average on the season, but they will be fresh aside from John Axford and Ryan Dull. I don’t see this as a spot to get too excited about attacking. I simply wrote it up because I see this as a spot that some DFS’ers may be attracted to (while anything can happen, I don’t see this as a great spot for Angels bats, particularly righties).

Hisashi Iwakuma has been very mediocre this season. One of his biggest struggles has been in surrendering the long ball (1.55 HR/9 at home this season). The Red Sox are not swinging hot bats at the moment, but the potential is certainly there. Keep in mind that Iwakuma has only exceeded 100 pitches once this season. The Mariners bullpen has some excellent arms, and can certainly shut down any offense in the late innings.

My Top Bullpen 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (risky, considering the talent, but fatigue and environment play a big factor in this call).
3. Atlanta Braves (tough environment, but it’s a weak unit that should see a lot of work).

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Cardinals placed Tyler Lyons on the 15-day DL with knee trouble.

The Angels announced that they play to use a committee at closer. They also called up Mike Morin from AAA. Morin is expected to eat up innings in middle relief. In a corresponding move, Huston Street was placed on the 15-day DL with knee trouble.

The Blue Jays called up Dan Barnes from AAA. Barnes has impressed in the minors this season and is expected to be a relatively strong piece of the Toronto bullpen the rest of the way.

Oakland activated Andrew Triggs off of the DL. Triggs has been demolished at the big league level this season.

The Mets called up lefty Josh Edgin from AAA. Edgin pitched well in the minors this season and is expected to be a matchup type pitcher against lefties following the trade of Antonio Bastardo.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Will Smith, Scott Feldman, and Fernando Abad all were recent trade acquisitions and all three took losses in their first appearances for their respective clubs.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

Legend