MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-15 01:32:17

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh						Chicago Cubs
			Gerrit Cole						Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-180						7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.376	37.2%	7.2%	22.9%	39.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.280	25.1%	5.4%	22.4%	46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	26.8%	6.8%	15.4%	51.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.238	27.5%	6.2%	23.3%	49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	23	4.27	4.11	18.7%	7.0%	46.1%	31.0%	21.4%

Cole has already given up eight earned runs this season and draws his most difficult matchup to date. The former number one draft pick hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. He had a disappointing 2016 season and hasn’t looked great so far in 2017. His strikeout rate is below the major league average and he is facing one of the best offenses in baseball. There is still plenty of time for Cole to right the ship, but Stephen Strasburg is the top option in the two-game early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Let’s wait to see some form before throwing Cole out there.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	31	3.69	2.25	22.9%	5.9%	48.3%	26.5%	25.0%

Hendricks doesn’t throw hard (88-90 MPH fastball), but he has great command and some really nice breaking pitches. He is a great example of why you don’t always need to throw gas to strike batters out. Since the start of last season, he has a 3.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.9%. He limits the hard contact against him and has an elite soft contact rate of 25%. When you allow similar hard and soft contact rates as a pitcher, that’s a good sign. Stephen Strasburg is the top pitching option in the early slate, but Hendricks is the best pivot off of him for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Viable in tournaments and as an SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

For a lot of the same reasons why we like Kyle Hendricks, we should dislike the Pirates’ offense. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate. He also boasts an above-average strikeout rate and a below-average walk rate. Looking at the table below, I don’t see any hitters that really stand out from the Pirates. Gregory Polanco is your best bet, but he’s a secondary play at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.290	0.091	26.2%	3.8%	14.5%	45.7%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,200
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.359	0.153	34.9%	4.3%	17.8%	48.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.328	0.164	36.3%	9.6%	21.9%	35.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.330	0.194	36.1%	9.0%	17.6%	38.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.320	0.128	33.5%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$2,800
6	John Jaso	LEFT	0.340	0.149	30.3%	9.9%	16.6%	50.7%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,700
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.308	0.078	25.9%	13.9%	18.7%	54.5%	C	$2,600	C	$2,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.290	0.100	24.4%	7.6%	14.7%	51.2%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,200
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.151	0.000	5.9%	0.0%	45.2%	78.6%	P	$8,100	P	$8,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Gerrit Cole has been tough on right-handed hitters, but has really struggled with lefties. It’s surprising that he has a higher strikeout rate against left-handed hitters, but I’m willing to overlook that given the other numbers – .376 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist are all elite plays that can hit from the left side of the plate. Kris Bryant is also a viable option, given his low ground ball rate and high wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.277	0.154	46.2%	15.6%	40.6%	53.8%	OF	$3,400	C/OF	$4,500
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.374	0.227	39.4%	10.3%	23.2%	30.2%	3B	$4,200	3B/OF	$4,700
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.393	0.258	37.3%	11.6%	17.2%	36.6%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,800
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.358	0.187	32.4%	16.4%	11.2%	45.9%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,900
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.299	0.151	27.9%	7.5%	21.6%	43.0%	SS	$2,700	2B/SS	$3,400
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.291	0.099	27.8%	8.3%	14.6%	45.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.305	0.160	29.8%	15.0%	20.9%	47.5%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900
8	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.172	0.000	7.1%	0.0%	43.1%	57.1%	P	$9,000	P	$9,200
9	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.292	0.138	29.2%	1.5%	26.8%	44.7%	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,500

Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell, Jason Heyward, Miguel Montero

Stackability – GREEN (Early-Slate), YELLOW (All-Day Slate)

Philadelphia at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia						Washington
			Aaron Nola						Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-200						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	31.5%	8.7%	22.3%	54.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.259	26.0%	8.2%	30.9%	44.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	27.1%	3.8%	27.9%	55.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.291	28.9%	5.9%	28.7%	37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Nola
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	21	3.27	4.77	25.3%	6.1%	55.2%	29.2%	22.5%

Nola is a talented young pitcher with a lot of promise. In his last 21 major league starts, he has a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.3%. He induces a lot of ground balls, which helps him limit hard contact and extra base hits. He’s a pitcher that I plan to roster often this season, just not today. He is pitching on the road against a talented Nationals’ offense. Washington is currently listed as a -200 favorite with the total set at 8.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: We’ll be able to target Nola eventually, just not today.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016-17	26	3.22	3.56	29.7%	7.2%	40.9%	26.8%	21.5%

The Strasburg tilt may be unlike any other. When he gets shelled, the entire MLB DFS community goes into a frenzy. I have a hard time seeing that happen today at home against the Phillies. Strasburg has been dominant at Nationals Park throughout his career and looks primed for a big season. He has an elite strikeout rate and he limits batters to a 26% hard contact rate. It may be hard to win a tournament with such a highly owned pitcher, but if Strasburg ends up being the best pitcher in the slate, you are going to need him in your lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Easily the top pitcher in the early slate. Viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

If you are playing in the early-only slate on FanDuel, you have no choice but to roster one hitter from either the Pirates and Phillies. Assuming you are taking Strasburg or Hendricks, you can take three batters from the same team as your pitcher and four batters from the other team. That leaves one roster spot open. I’m not a fan of either offense, but prefer that last roster spot to be used on a Pirates’ batter. Strasburg is too dominant at home to give any Phillies’ hitters serious consideration.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.335	0.116	26.7%	11.3%	18.3%	53.3%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,000
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.318	0.139	35.2%	7.6%	17.6%	58.9%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,100
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.363	0.159	29.2%	9.6%	19.5%	42.2%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,600
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.301	0.159	29.7%	6.7%	16.5%	44.3%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.325	0.195	37.7%	11.1%	27.8%	38.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100
6	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.310	0.220	35.6%	4.9%	23.5%	39.4%	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,300
7	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.299	0.170	32.2%	6.2%	27.0%	47.9%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.303	0.181	27.7%	4.8%	22.8%	40.2%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$3,000
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.115	0.038	8.3%	6.7%	50.0%	80.0%	P	$7,800	P	$7,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The question isn’t whether we are going to stack the Nationals’ hitters in the early slate, it’s a matter of which ones we want to target. Aaron Nola is very tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a 27% hard contact rate and a 28% strikeout rate. He’s tough on lefties too, but a 31% hard contact rate and a 22% strikeout rate are more manageable. Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy are all core plays in this early slate. Matt Wieters is also viable if he’s batting seventh again. The right-handed bats of Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman are best used as complementary pieces in a stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.355	0.170	32.2%	9.3%	17.1%	49.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.328	0.178	35.6%	8.2%	19.3%	35.9%	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,700
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.358	0.198	35.2%	18.7%	15.9%	39.2%	OF	$4,700	OF	$4,900
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.425	0.262	41.2%	5.8%	9.6%	35.8%	2B	$3,800	2B/3B	$4,600
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.291	0.158	32.7%	5.0%	24.4%	45.7%	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,200
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.299	0.140	31.6%	11.0%	24.8%	41.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.327	0.190	32.3%	6.9%	17.2%	36.9%	C	$2,900	C	$3,000
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.308	0.039	19.5%	13.6%	16.9%	58.5%	SS	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,600
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.163	0.024	10.3%	4.1%	16.3%	76.7%	P	$9,900	P	$10,800

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GREEN (Early-Slate), YELLOW (All-Day Slate)

St. Louis at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis						NY Yankees
			Michael Wacha						Masahiro Tanaka
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-145						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	29.7%	7.1%	18.3%	45.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	32.7%	4.2%	20.3%	49.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	30.7%	7.5%	19.8%	47.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.284	31.6%	5.7%	20.5%	46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Wacha
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2016-17	25	4.26	4.94	19.1%	7.3%	46.7%	30.2%	18.7%

The first game in the main slate features two pitchers that are both seeking to find the form that they once had. Wacha now owns a below-average strikeout rate and finished the 2016 with an ERA close to 5.00. We shouldn’t be too concerned about a pitcher’s ERA, but his peripheral statistics aren’t that enticing either. This is an interleague game, so Wacha will have to pitch in Yankee Stadium under American League rules (designated hitter). There seems to be more downside than upside with Wacha in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Bad ballpark and a bad matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2016-17	33	3.84	3.39	20.4%	5.0%	47.9%	32.1%	18.8%

Tanaka is still an above-average pitcher, he just no longer has an elite strikeout rate that made him such a great play in DFS. His stirkeout rate is now around the league average, so while he is still playable, we need to choose our spots carefully. The Cardinals’ offense is a scary one, as they hit right-handed pitching well and generally like to work counts into their favor. They will also get to utilize a designated hitter tonight, which only adds another bat into their lineup. In a slate that features Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard, I won’t be making any room for Tanaka in my lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Good spot to pick up a win, but limited strikeout upside against St. Louis.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals see a nice ballpark bump playing in Yankee Stadium and they also get an extra hitter in their lineup. However, this isn’t a great spot for their offense overall. Masahiro Tanaka has a 20% strikeout rate against both left and right-handed hitters and induces a high ground ball rate. The one exception that I will make tonight is for Matt Carpenter. Not only does he see a nice boost with the short porch in right field, but he has one of the lowest ground ball rates of any hitter against right-handed pitching. He should be able to elevate the ball, even in a bad matchup against Tanaka. Carpenter will be featured as a one-off in plenty of my lineups tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.352	0.154	27.7%	14.5%	26.0%	37.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.391	0.250	32.2%	8.2%	13.0%	44.0%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,800
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.381	0.248	45.9%	15.6%	18.5%	28.1%	2B	$3,000	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.328	0.164	33.6%	6.3%	22.2%	45.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,600
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.340	0.118	31.2%	6.6%	10.1%	48.2%	C	$2,600	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.329	0.147	32.6%	6.6%	17.4%	41.8%	SS	$2,600	3B/SS	$3,200	3B	$6,300
7	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.324	0.208	36.0%	8.9%	25.9%	31.0%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.313	0.231	40.5%	4.3%	30.9%	43.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
9	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.293	0.119	24.8%	10.4%	13.6%	48.2%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,000	2B	$6,000

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

There is more appeal in the Yankees than there is in the Cardinals, but this game as a whole isn’t my favorite. Michael Wacha may have a below-average strikeout rate, but he still has a fairly high ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 31% hard contact rate. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are both fine cash game targets in the outfield, but neither look like core plays in this slate. I have a little interest in Aaron Judge as a one-off in tournaments given the home run upside and the cheap price point.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.333	0.107	26.1%	12.6%	16.1%	51.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,500
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.326	0.131	27.4%	9.6%	12.3%	47.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.342	0.192	35.2%	10.0%	16.9%	51.7%	OF	$3,000	1B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,800
4	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.338	0.263	40.5%	11.3%	33.4%	29.0%	1B	$2,600	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,000
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.315	0.159	30.7%	3.4%	19.1%	50.4%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.330	0.167	32.2%	10.6%	26.0%	42.2%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,400
7	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.325	0.250	50.0%	7.5%	36.8%	41.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.247	0.113	24.2%	5.7%	19.3%	41.5%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,400
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.316	0.158	22.1%	2.7%	9.6%	50.8%	3B	$2,200	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner (Cash), Jacoby Ellsbury (Cash), Aaron Judge (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore						Toronto
			Wade Miley						Aaron Sanchez
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-130						8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	35.9%	8.3%	19.3%	54.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	32.5%	11.0%	21.5%	47.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.360	32.7%	6.5%	19.3%	45.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.257	27.6%	4.9%	19.2%	59.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Wade Miley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2016-17	31	4.29	5.21	19.4%	7.6%	46.9%	33.5%	17.0%

Miley didn’t give up a single earned run in his first start of the season, but make no doubt about it, the Blue Jays’ stacks will be out in full force tonight. Miley may not be as bad of a pitcher as most tend to believe, but he is certainly one that we can pick on for DFS purposes. He gives up a lot of hard contact to left and right-handed hitters, he has a below-average strikeout rate, and rarely induces soft contact. He is also a left-handed pitcher that is facing a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ lineup in the Rogers Centre.

Quick Breakdown: Nah.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016-17	31	4.03	2.94	20.4%	8.1%	53.6%	30.0%	20.7%

The Blue Jays have done an excellent job of finding pitchers to suit their ballpark. The Rogers Centre is a tough place to pitch, but you can succeed with at least an average strikeout rate combined with an elite ground ball rate. Sanchez fits that mold, as he has a 54% ground ball rate with a 20% strikeout rate. He may not be as good as his ERA from last season would lead you to believe, but he has all the tools to be the Blue Jays’ best pitcher. The Orioles are one of those offenses that can go off (look at what they did to Steven Wright) or disappear (last night against Francisco Liriano). They are generally a better matchup for tournaments, but Sanchez is a viable SP2 for cash games at $8,200 on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Elite GPP play and viable as an SP2 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have a lot of power against right-handed pitching, but it’s hard to get excited about a matchup against Aaron Sanchez. In addition to his elite ground ball rate, he has held left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA in the last two seasons. The left-handed bats of Seth Smith and Chris Davis are fine tournament targets, but I will be avoiding the righties in this lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.342	0.181	33.9%	10.9%	20.3%	46.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.338	0.196	33.3%	5.8%	15.9%	44.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.359	0.253	35.0%	6.4%	18.2%	36.0%	3B	$3,600	3B/SS	$4,800	3B	$9,200
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.355	0.265	42.3%	14.1%	33.5%	36.9%	1B	$3,500	1B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,800
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.388	0.296	39.2%	7.9%	25.0%	38.3%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.305	0.126	34.5%	6.3%	27.6%	39.4%	C	$3,000	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
7	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.365	0.122	30.5%	9.6%	14.5%	53.0%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$6,000
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.328	0.193	27.9%	3.0%	19.9%	43.3%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.291	0.116	31.2%	4.4%	16.9%	45.5%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

As a fairly new parent, we basically have a three-movie rotation on at our house. One of those movies is Trolls (my little man’s favorite). The trolls have these watches that go off every so often and when they do, it is hug time. I have a similar watch that goes off every time Wade Miley is on the mound. Stack time! Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .360 wOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The Jays’ offense has been quiet lately and will take their frustration out on poor Miley. I don’t like making home run predictions, but something tells me Steve Pearce is going to hit one against his former team.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.269	0.099	24.4%	0.0%	19.6%	45.1%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
2	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.333	0.202	39.7%	14.5%	14.5%	39.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.396	0.235	37.6%	18.3%	14.6%	34.9%	3B	$3,600	3B	$5,100	3B	$10,000
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.397	0.239	38.4%	5.4%	18.8%	35.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.324	0.157	32.3%	10.1%	17.8%	40.9%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,800
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.321	0.144	45.2%	17.6%	28.7%	43.8%	C	$2,400	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
7	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.407	0.281	43.3%	12.7%	21.6%	34.3%	OF	$2,800	1B/2B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.295	0.120	31.5%	1.9%	14.9%	36.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.342	0.110	30.2%	8.0%	14.3%	42.4%	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$4,800

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, Troy Tulowitzki, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Russell Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit						Cleveland
			Daniel Norris						Trevor Bauer
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-165						8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	25.0%	10.1%	34.2%	38.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	36.7%	7.4%	25.6%	39.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	35.2%	6.3%	19.7%	38.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	27.8%	9.2%	16.9%	55.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Daniel Norris
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30
	2016-17	14	4.10	3.45	22.2%	7.6%	39.0%	34.6%	13.0%

Norris has shown some strikeout upside in the minors and that has somewhat transferred over into the majors. In his last 14 starts, he has a 4.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.2%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that struggles against right-handed hitters. That’s generally not great for a lefty because opposing teams are just going to load up their lineups with right-handed batters. Outside of Michael Brantley, the Indians should have eight righties in their lineup tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Norris isn’t an auto-fade when he’s on the mound, but this isn’t the right matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	2016-17	29	4.16	4.32	21.0%	8.4%	48.6%	31.7%	18.8%

Every time I see Bauer’s name, all I can think of is last year during the playoffs (may have been the World Series) when he cut his hand playing with his drone. He tried to pitch later that week and there was blood dripping all over his jersey, the ball, and the mound. This has nothing to do with his fantasy appeal tonight, but I can’t get it out of my head. Anyway, Bauer is a reverse-splits pitcher that is facing a right-handed heavy lineup of the Tigers. He’s a sizable favorite, but I don’t see a ton of upside here.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options at Bauer’s price point.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

If you quickly glance at the table above, you will see that Trevor Bauer has some reverse splits. His wOBA and walk rate are higher against righties and his strikeout rate is much lower. That should bode well for the Tigers, who have plenty of right-handed power hitters in their lineup. Nick Castellanos has been on fire to start the season and is a reverse-batter (better in a righty/righty matchup) and Miguel Cabrera finally hit his first home run of the season. This isn’t a great ballpark for offensive production, but the Tigers are sneaky tournament targets tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.349	0.185	34.2%	6.5%	16.7%	33.9%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,800	2B	$9,300
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.379	0.220	39.2%	7.2%	23.2%	31.3%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,700
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.396	0.253	41.2%	10.0%	16.7%	40.9%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,300
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.344	0.187	40.9%	8.1%	15.8%	36.1%	C	$2,600	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.335	0.227	37.8%	8.4%	28.1%	40.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,000
6	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.347	0.181	33.7%	7.9%	25.7%	34.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.230	0.075	29.1%	5.4%	27.1%	42.6%	C	$2,200	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.384	0.174	26.3%	14.8%	14.8%	57.9%	OF	$2,200	3B/SS	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.267	0.056	13.8%	4.9%	10.9%	56.1%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos (FD), Miguel Cabrera (FD)

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos (DK), Miguel Cabrera (DK), Victor Martinez (FD), Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Daniel Norris does not fare well against right-handed hitters – .341 wOBA, 35% hard contact rate, 19% strikeout rate. All of the righties in the Indians’ lineup are in play tonight, especially the ones with some pop in their bats. This is a great time to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion, who has been quiet to start the season. Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Brandon Guyer all have good numbers against southpaws as well. You can stack, mini-stack, or use the Indians as one-off targets tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.324	0.134	29.3%	10.4%	10.0%	54.5%	1B	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,700	1B	$9,300
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.326	0.134	30.1%	6.4%	14.8%	47.6%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,200
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.309	0.143	70.0%	6.3%	31.3%	20.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,700
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.376	0.256	38.3%	19.6%	21.5%	36.2%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.360	0.156	31.6%	7.7%	12.2%	42.9%	P	$5,500	2B	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
6	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.418	0.200	29.1%	5.5%	10.9%	36.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,800
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.341	0.205	24.1%	6.3%	25.0%	38.9%	C	$2,100	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
8	Yandy Diaz	RIGHT	0.189	0.000	66.7%	7.7%	23.1%	66.7%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
9	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.212	0.038	41.0%	8.6%	24.1%	42.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400

MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 14th

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Stackability Rating System:

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell, Jason Heyward, Miguel Montero

Stackability – GREEN (Early-Slate), YELLOW (All-Day Slate)

Philadelphia at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GREEN (Early-Slate), YELLOW (All-Day Slate)

St. Louis at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner (Cash), Jacoby Ellsbury (Cash), Aaron Judge (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, Troy Tulowitzki, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Russell Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos (FD), Miguel Cabrera (FD)

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos (DK), Miguel Cabrera (DK), Victor Martinez (FD), Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – YELLOW

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