MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-20 17:40:18

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Chicago Cubs
			Jack Flaherty							Jon Lester
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-160
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.266	0.290	31.1%	86.4	21.8%	48.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.356	30.7%	85.7	18.9%	39.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.282	34.9%	85.4	34.6%	40.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	0.351	34.0%	89.6	19.2%	37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jack Flaherty
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:				Salary:
	Salary Rank:			16 of 26	Salary Rank:			of 26	Salary Rank:
	2017	5	4.62	6.33	21.3%	10.6%	47.6%	31.8%	15.9%	93.2	13.1%
	2018	14	3.43	3.24	28.2%	7.8%	44.7%	32.8%	21.9%	92.5	12.4%
	L14	3	4.12	4.73	24.1%	10.3%	47.2%	24.3%	32.4%	93.4	12.0%

Welcome back, hopefully everyone enjoyed the All-Star break and is ready to get back to the grind. We kick off the second half of the season with a big main slate and a single early game between the Cardinals and Cubs. Flaherty has really flourished in his sophomore campaign, posting a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He induces ground balls, he has excellent control, and he has an above-average swinging strike rate. The concern here is the wind, which is expected to be blowing out to center field at 13 MPH. As we all know, when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, it turns into one of the most home run-friendly parks in baseball. In the showdown slate, I plan to load up on the two offenses.

Quick Breakdown: Given the conditions at Wrigley, Flaherty is a tournament play at best in the showdown slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:				Salary:
	Salary Rank:			9 of 26	Salary Rank:			of 26	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%	91.1	11.0%
	2018	19	4.64	2.58	19.1%	8.9%	38.2%	33.2%	15.4%	90.9	8.5%
	L14	2	5.16	5.40	18.0%	12.0%	38.2%	20.6%	14.7%	90.9	6.2%

Lester has a 2.58 ERA, but the rest of his statistics suggest that he’s had a significantly worse season than he did in 2017 (and many before that). In his 19 starts, he has a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 9%. His career low BABIP (.253) will likely come up in the second half of the season. The fact that his ground ball rate is down to 38% does not bode well for today’s start with the wind blowing out to left field. In these conditions at Wrigley, pitchers need a high strikeout rate and/or a high ground ball rate to have success. At this point of his career, Lester doesn’t have either in his repertoire. This is a good game to play the wind angle and load up on hitters.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not trusting Lester in the second half of the season. You can’t run away from regression forever.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Let me start by saying that this game could easily end up getting rained out. Even though this is a day game, we have 60%+ chance of rain throughout the entire day. If the game does play, the Cardinals are an offense to load up on in the showdown slate. They have a right-handed heavy lineup and are facing Jon Lester, who can’t stay this lucky forever. The difference between his actual wOBA (.292) allowed and his expected wOBA allowed (.351) against righties is nearly 60 percentage points. Lester’s ground ball rate is down this season, which is significant with the wind blowing out to center field.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.427	89.6	0.254	54.0%	17.4%	24.4%	38.8%	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.431	88.3	0.160	42.9%	5.5%	14.5%	21.4%	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
3	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.274	82.7	0.200	26.9%	12.8%	29.8%	38.5%	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.339	90.9	0.130	45.2%	6.0%	19.0%	53.2%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
5	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.400	88.3	0.281	45.8%	10.8%	15.4%	43.8%	2B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
6	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.299	86.2	0.067	37.9%	11.3%	32.1%	44.8%	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.299	85.8	0.215	33.3%	6.8%	27.4%	35.6%	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A
8	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.419	93.5	0.119	45.1%	12.8%	20.5%	56.9%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Jack Flaherty	RIGHT	0.036	85.7	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	60.0%	100.0%	P	$7,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.325	87.9	0.158	36.8%	9.3%	27.0%	48.1%

Elite Plays – Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw a fairly difficult matchup against Jack Flaherty, who has a 28% strikeout rate and who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA this season. Obviously the wind blowing out to center field is going to give this offense a big boost as a whole. The Cubs know better than anyone how hitter-friendly this park becomes when the wind is blowing out. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Schwarber all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching, so this is certainly a capable offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.384	90.6	0.184	33.3%	11.1%	9.3%	39.0%	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.358	86.3	0.151	32.5%	11.2%	21.3%	37.3%	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.363	89.2	0.165	33.5%	8.4%	10.1%	40.5%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
4	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.344	90.3	0.277	38.8%	3.3%	27.9%	42.0%	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.360	88.9	0.153	34.9%	14.6%	12.7%	45.4%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.308	87.3	0.149	30.9%	7.5%	19.8%	50.6%	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.388	89.7	0.298	43.3%	16.5%	25.8%	42.9%	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.296	86.3	0.102	31.1%	9.1%	22.3%	38.9%	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.275	78.3	0.103	25.9%	0.0%	22.9%	76.2%	P	$8,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.342	87.4	0.176	33.8%	9.1%	19.1%	45.9%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			Anibal Sanchez							Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-180							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.270	0.311	30.7%	83.1	26.7%	46.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.307	28.1%	87.7	24.6%	48.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.278	25.2%	84.9	21.1%	37.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.348	42.1%	91.6	34.5%	37.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Anibal Sanchez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:		$15,500
	Salary Rank:			14 of 26	Salary Rank:			12 of 26	Salary Rank:		11 of 26
	2017	17	4.16	6.41	21.6%	6.0%	35.6%	37.4%	16.8%	90.8	9.8%
	2018	11	3.89	2.60	23.7%	7.3%	41.4%	27.5%	23.6%	90.6	9.5%
	L14	3	3.43	2.41	25.0%	4.2%	39.6%	30.0%	16.0%	91.3	9.8%

Sanchez has surprised many (including myself) with his play this season. In 11 starts, he owns a 3.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and more impressively, a soft contact rate to match (24%). Given his fantasy production, he’s been underpriced in DFS all season. While I like his supporting statistics, he draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Nationals. He comes into the game as a sizable underdog and the Nationals’ projected lineup has a .356 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching. With power from both sides of the plate, Washington is a difficult opponent for right-handed pitchers and we don’t have a shortage of options in tonight’s 14-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sanchez in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,000	Salary:			$10,300	Salary:		$19,500
	Salary Rank:			2 of 26	Salary Rank:			2 of 26	Salary Rank:		2 of 26
	2017	28	3.37	2.52	29.1%	6.7%	46.8%	27.3%	21.4%	95.6	13.0%
	2018	13	3.09	3.46	29.1%	5.8%	44.2%	34.0%	18.7%	95.3	11.6%

Strasburg will be making his first start in nearly a month and a half after dealing with shoulder inflammation. When healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, but there are too many red flags to target him in his first start back from injury. Rust is always a potential problem in these situations; the same goes for a pitch count. The fact that Freddie Freeman has had his number over the years doesn’t help. While I won’t fade a pitcher due to a matchup against a single hitter, there are plenty of reasons to look elsewhere in tonight’s big slate.

Quick Breakdown: I’m taking a wait and see approach with Strasburg.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves could be catching Stephen Strasburg at an opportune time seeing as how this is his first start back from injury, but he’s still not a pitcher that we should go out of our way to target hitters against. He’s been an elite pitcher for many years and always seems to have above-average strikeout and ground ball rates. The one intriguing tournament play here is Freddie Freeman. He’s gotten the best of Strasburg in the past, going 16-for-45 with four home runs and four doubles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.284	82.8	0.119	25.6%	8.1%	12.5%	47.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.319	85.5	0.232	36.1%	4.5%	17.4%	36.2%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,000
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.416	90.2	0.186	46.2%	14.1%	16.9%	37.9%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$8,900
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.402	91.4	0.151	41.5%	10.8%	9.0%	42.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,200
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.333	86.0	0.147	36.0%	5.9%	9.2%	33.3%	C	$2,900	C	$3,000	C	$5,500
6	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.322	89.7	0.145	41.0%	14.7%	20.0%	52.5%	3B	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,200	3B	$6,800
7	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.332	91.2	0.200	41.3%	5.4%	31.8%	42.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,300
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.290	87.6	0.139	32.2%	6.9%	23.2%	42.9%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,800
9	Anibal Sanchez	RIGHT	0.162	53.9	0.000	12.5%	7.1%	35.7%	33.3%	P	$7,300	P	$7,700	P	$15,500
	Team Averages		0.318	84.3	0.147	34.7%	8.6%	19.5%	41.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals were one of the biggest disappointments in the first half of the season, but are still only 5.5 games behind the Phillies in the National League East. A good home stand would go a long way to helping them inch closer to the division lead. Their matchup against Anibal Sanchez would have been enticing a year ago, but he’s been a different pitcher in 2018, posting strikeout and soft contact rates of 24%. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA, so there isn’t much that stands out from a splits perspective.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.392	88.4	0.109	41.3%	6.6%	14.8%	45.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,200
2	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.376	89.4	0.189	36.1%	16.4%	19.7%	49.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.395	91.2	0.216	36.5%	10.0%	14.6%	35.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.394	90.9	0.274	43.3%	18.6%	25.0%	36.5%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,000
5	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.389	95.7	0.179	42.4%	4.8%	22.9%	44.1%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,400
6	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.334	89.2	0.141	33.6%	8.9%	21.3%	51.9%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
7	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.363	86.7	0.091	14.5%	8.2%	6.8%	30.6%	1B	$2,900	1B/2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.298	84.5	0.111	25.0%	8.5%	11.3%	38.2%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,500
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.252	84.4	0.000	27.8%	4.3%	17.4%	73.3%	P	$10,000	P	$10,300	P	$19,500
	Team Averages		0.355	88.9	0.146	33.4%	9.6%	17.1%	44.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
NY Mets								NY Yankees
			Noah Syndergaard							Domingo German
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-125							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.279	25.5%	86.2	27.5%	44.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.344	0.305	38.3%	87.3	21.1%	39.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.283	0.282	21.1%	86.1	26.8%	47.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.307	39.0%	88.3	32.6%	39.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Noah Syndergaard
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,800	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:			3 of 26	Salary Rank:			4 of 26	Salary Rank:		4 of 26
	2017	7	2.74	2.97	27.4%	2.4%	57.6%	30.2%	16.3%	98.3	13.9%
	2018	12	3.14	2.97	27.2%	5.2%	46.3%	23.3%	25.9%	97.5	14.5%
	L14	1	5.38	1.80	13.6%	9.1%	31.3%	17.7%	35.3%	97.7	8.0%

Syndergaard missed a month and a half with a finger injury, but he did make one start before the All-Star break. He threw 75 pitches in five innings of work and struck out three batters in the process. He should throw a few more pitches in this start, but he draws one of the worst matchups of the slate. He not only has to face the Yankees, but he has to do it in Yankee Stadium. This is one of the toughest places to pitch in baseball and that’s before you look at the murderer’s row of hitters in the Yankees’ lineup. We know Syndergaard has the talent to overcome any matchup, but I’ll wait for a better spot.

Quick Breakdown: Even at his discounted price point, Syndergaard is a fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Domingo German
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:			19 of 26	Salary Rank:			10 of 26	Salary Rank:		7 of 26
	2017	0	3.93	3.14	29.0%	14.5%	54.5%	28.6%	25.7%	96.4	11.1%
	2018	12	3.65	5.49	27.0%	8.8%	39.1%	38.6%	17.2%	94.7	14.9%
	L14	3	4.55	6.28	25.0%	13.2%	38.1%	35.7%	14.3%	94.2	12.8%

German is an intriguing play tonight in tournaments, especially if we expect his ownership to be low. While a 5.49 ERA doesn’t look great on paper, his peripheral statistics support a much stronger showing in the second half of the season. He owns a 3.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He does allow a lot of hard contact, but we are willing to live with it given his cheap price point and his strikeout upside. He’s favored against Noah Syndergaard and draws a decent matchup against the Mets, who have five hitters in their projected lineup with at least a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: German is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets see a ballpark boost playing in Yankee Stadium and also get to use the DH in this series. While there are some positives, they are still the Mets. A matchup against Domingo German isn’t all that appealing, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. He does allow a lot of hard contact and we do have the short porch in right field, which brings a few hitters into play for tournaments. Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Michael Conforto all boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.373	90.2	0.259	37.0%	12.6%	26.1%	35.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,900	LF	$8,700
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.372	90.2	0.241	44.0%	8.2%	20.1%	40.5%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,500	SS	$9,200
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.312	91.0	0.241	36.5%	4.3%	31.0%	29.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,500
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.350	87.6	0.142	34.9%	17.6%	21.2%	39.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,700
5	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.354	90.5	0.187	43.2%	15.0%	26.8%	31.1%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,400
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.328	87.0	0.226	36.2%	7.2%	9.2%	37.0%	1B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,700
7	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.318	87.3	0.190	33.9%	5.4%	19.0%	33.0%	C	$2,300	C	$3,300	C	$6,300
8	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.252	84.4	0.057	20.0%	9.5%	17.2%	51.2%	3B	$2,200	3B/SS	$3,100	SS	$5,700
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.288	87.1	0.133	28.8%	5.7%	19.6%	47.9%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.327	88.4	0.186	34.9%	9.5%	21.1%	38.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees have been close to matchup-proof this season, but have struggled against pitchers with elite strikeout rates. If the Yankees are able to make contact, they tend to have success, especially in this ballpark. The best way to beat them is to rack up as many strikeouts as possible. Noah Syndergaard is certainly capable of quieting one of the best offenses in baseball. With 14 games on the schedule, we don’t need to force the issue here. I plan to avoid both Syndergaard and the Yankees’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.313	87.2	0.170	29.9%	12.2%	14.4%	50.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,400
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.397	96.3	0.266	48.5%	12.9%	31.4%	44.9%	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,100
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.353	88.7	0.255	39.7%	8.9%	12.1%	34.9%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,900
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.305	91.6	0.187	34.1%	7.7%	33.5%	53.4%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.346	90.0	0.223	37.0%	9.6%	24.9%	43.3%	C	$3,300	C	$4,000	C	$7,700
6	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.353	88.9	0.195	40.0%	13.7%	19.8%	44.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,200
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.333	89.2	0.279	39.7%	8.1%	27.4%	35.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,300
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.351	89.8	0.187	36.8%	4.1%	16.9%	50.0%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,300
9	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.345	88.1	0.102	37.0%	10.2%	22.0%	40.2%	2B	$2,100	1B/2B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.344	90.0	0.207	38.1%	9.7%	22.5%	44.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
San Diego								Philadelphia
			Clayton Richard							Jake Arrieta
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-153							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	0.310	32.1%	88.2	19.5%	74.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.318	0.344	28.4%	87.5	16.4%	52.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.351	43.7%	89.5	17.0%	53.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.293	28.5%	86.6	17.5%	57.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Clayton Richard
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:			17 of 30	Salary Rank:			27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30
	2017	32	4.06	4.79	17.6%	6.9%	59.2%	35.0%	17.3%	90.7	8.6%
	2018	20	4.28	4.43	17.6%	9.0%	57.9%	41.2%	18.9%	90.2	9.1%
	L14	3	6.65	5.29	10.7%	18.7%	59.2%	49.0%	9.8%	90.7	4.5%

I’m sure most players look forward to the All-Star break, but it couldn’t have come soon enough for Richard, who was limping his way through the first half of the season. In the three starts before the break, he posted a 6.65 SIERA with 14 walks and only eight strikeouts. That’s not going to get the job done in any matchup. His biggest strength at this point is his ground ball rate and the Phillies’ offense is filled with fly-ball hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Richard in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jake Arrieta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:			10 of 30	Salary Rank:			8 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2017	30	4.15	3.53	23.1%	7.8%	45.1%	29.4%	20.0%	92.1	8.7%
	2018	18	4.34	3.23	17.0%	7.8%	55.3%	28.4%	19.8%	93.0	7.2%
	L14	2	3.92	1.29	21.6%	7.8%	50.0%	30.6%	19.4%	92.6	7.1%

Arrieta hasn’t been a common play of mine this season, but I’ll have some shares tonight. Due to a low strikeout rate (17%), he’s been a better pitcher in real life than he has been in daily fantasy, but that shouldn’t be an issue against the strikeout-prone Padres. Arrieta is great at keeping the ball on the ground and inducing soft contact, which really comes in handy in this ballpark. He’s cheap across the industry, he’s a large favorite, and he may have the best matchup of the slate — Padres’ projected lineup has a .304 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta is one of the top SP2 options of the slate and I wouldn’t rule him out on single-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Do you like rostering Padres’ hitters and watching them strikeout? I can stomach the risk when they are facing a southpaw, but they are close to an auto-fade when matched up against a decent right-handed pitcher. Their projected lineup has two batters (Carlos Asuaje and Wil Myers) with an xwOBA over .320 against righties this season. Two. Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta has a 52%+ ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.300	84.4	0.083	24.0%	11.5%	12.0%	60.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
2	Carlos Asuaje	LEFT	0.346	87.9	0.118	43.2%	11.1%	19.7%	34.6%	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,300
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.422	92.0	0.218	54.1%	4.9%	20.7%	45.9%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,200
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.319	90.1	0.166	38.9%	9.9%	24.5%	61.7%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,400
5	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.314	90.0	0.202	48.7%	6.8%	29.7%	41.9%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,500
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.286	87.1	0.080	41.4%	8.9%	24.3%	43.6%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,900
7	Christian Villanueva	RIGHT	0.263	85.4	0.155	29.7%	5.1%	27.0%	32.8%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
8	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.264	83.8	0.136	31.6%	7.3%	32.3%	36.8%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
9	Clayton Richard	LEFT	0.218	74.8	0.129	16.7%	0.0%	47.2%	53.8%	P	$7,300	P	$5,200	P	$9,900
	Team Averages		0.304	86.2	0.143	36.5%	7.3%	26.4%	45.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies are the preferred team to target in this game, both from the hitting and pitching perspectives. As mentioned above, Clayton Richard was in awful form leading up to the All-Star break. On the season, he has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The best way to attack Richard is with righties that have high fly-ball rates. This sets up perfectly for Rhys Hoskins, who has a .521 wOBA against the sinker this season (Richard’s main pitch).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.348	88.8	0.053	32.9%	15.3%	18.9%	50.7%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,000
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.362	90.5	0.127	28.6%	21.2%	18.8%	22.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,300
3	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.210	99.5	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	1B	$2,000	OF	$3,600	3B	$7,400
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.356	88.6	0.186	38.8%	10.9%	10.9%	45.9%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,300
5	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.246	84.6	0.074	25.9%	6.9%	31.0%	34.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,600
6	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.312	90.8	0.141	36.8%	5.9%	38.2%	39.5%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,700
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.360	87.7	0.203	32.8%	9.5%	10.7%	43.3%	3B	$2,700	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,500
8	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.320	87.6	0.154	34.1%	15.4%	28.2%	45.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,400
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.295	68.0	0.000	16.7%	10.0%	30.0%	25.0%	P	$8,000	P	$8,500	P	$15,900
	Team Averages		0.312	87.3	0.104	33.0%	10.6%	26.3%	34.0%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Toronto
			Dylan Bundy							Sam Gaviglio
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-140							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.378	0.403	35.0%	90.2	20.4%	31.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.336	31.4%	87.9	14.6%	44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.282	0.288	32.3%	88.0	31.2%	38.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.309	29.9%	88.0	27.0%	56.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:			$8,400	Salary:		$15,800
	Salary Rank:			8 of 30	Salary Rank:			9 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2017	28	4.45	4.24	21.8%	7.3%	32.8%	36.5%	17.6%	92.2	11.4%
	2018	18	3.81	4.35	25.7%	7.7%	34.6%	33.8%	15.5%	91.7	13.3%
	L14	2	6.21	12.27	12.5%	12.5%	27.6%	33.3%	10.0%	91.9	9.2%

Bundy has been one of the most volatile pitchers in baseball. We’ve seen him dominate and we’ve seen him get shelled. This isn’t exactly what we like to see in DFS, but his boom or bust nature keeps his price and ownership at reasonable levels. While pitching in Toronto is always a difficult proposition, the matchup does suit his skill set. He has held right-handed hitters to a .288 xwOBA with a 31% strikeout rate. He’ll likely be facing five or six righties tonight against the Blue Jays. There are enough pitchers that I feel good about that I likely won’t play any Bundy, but he’s viable in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: It’s hard to argue with Bundy’s upside. He’s viable as an SP2 in GPPs.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sam Gaviglio
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:			29 of 30	Salary Rank:			17 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2017	13	4.96	4.36	15.7%	8.3%	49.4%	31.5%	15.7%	88.6	7.1%
	2018	11	4.01	4.58	21.5%	7.3%	50.0%	30.6%	16.8%	88.4	9.1%
	L14	3	4.68	7.71	16.7%	8.3%	55.9%	37.1%	5.7%	88.0	7.3%

Gaviglio isn’t a pitcher that I regularly have confidence in, but it’s hard not to like him tonight against the Orioles. They have struggled against right-handed pitching all season and just traded away their best player in Manny Machado. Gaviglio will get to face a right-handed heavy lineup, which bodes well for his upside. On the season, he has held righties to a .309 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate and a 56% ground ball rate. He’s a decent favorite and he’s pitching at home where he has average 15 fantasy points (DK scoring) per start this season.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio is one of my favorite plays of the slate. I’m loading up at this price point.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles may go from bad to terrible after trading Manny Machado to the Dodgers. We are going to be able to target both left and right-handed pitchers against them on a regular basis. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has a .310 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I have no interest in this offense as a whole, as they are facing a ground ball pitcher in Sam Gaviglio, who has been tough on right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.264	86.2	0.063	27.8%	5.2%	27.6%	47.2%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,900	SS	$5,900
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.253	85.6	0.192	26.5%	2.2%	22.4%	47.9%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,500
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.326	88.3	0.178	31.4%	3.2%	18.0%	41.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.362	93.4	0.216	41.7%	6.7%	26.1%	37.5%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$3,600	DH	$7,300
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.291	87.6	0.099	34.4%	7.7%	35.2%	42.6%	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,900
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.329	90.8	0.117	30.4%	6.2%	23.1%	46.7%	OF	$2,600	3B/OF	$3,100	3B	$5,700
7	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.362	90.4	0.158	31.9%	9.2%	24.5%	51.5%	OF	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,300
8	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.287	88.2	0.080	32.9%	6.9%	35.2%	46.9%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
9	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.312	87.1	0.165	30.1%	11.9%	24.6%	46.9%	OF	$2,200	3B/OF	$3,600	2B	$7,300
	Team Averages		0.310	88.6	0.141	31.9%	6.6%	26.3%	45.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Dylan Bundy is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. While he does have a high strikeout rate, he has struggled against power hitters, especially ones that bat from the left side of the plate (.403 xwOBA allowed). This isn’t a spot to stack the Blue Jays, but we can certainly chase their upside with one-off targets and mini two-player stacks. Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak, and Kendrys Morales all bat from the left side and all boast a .330+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.339	87.9	0.204	35.5%	13.0%	28.5%	32.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
2	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.379	92.0	0.222	39.1%	5.4%	25.6%	37.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.331	88.1	0.158	31.0%	7.6%	16.0%	42.5%	3B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,500	3B	$6,500
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.404	92.3	0.271	38.0%	17.9%	26.0%	32.1%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.409	93.5	0.212	45.3%	10.3%	22.4%	42.7%	1B	$2,700	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,200
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.311	90.7	0.134	30.6%	16.2%	24.1%	46.8%	C	$2,100	C	$3,100	C	$5,900
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.331	91.2	0.256	38.5%	7.4%	25.7%	42.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.348	89.2	0.183	36.2%	3.4%	11.9%	44.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,400
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.293	88.7	0.123	26.0%	6.0%	22.5%	61.5%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,200
	Team Averages		0.349	90.4	0.196	35.6%	9.7%	22.5%	42.5%

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson (GPP), Justin Smoak (GPP), Kendrys Morales (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson (Cash), Justin Smoak (Cash), Kendrys Morales (Cash), Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 20th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

San Diego at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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