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MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-06 19:45:10

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Cincinnati Chicago Cubs
cincinnatimlb Tyler Mahle cubsmlb Mike Montgomery
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-160 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.408 0.378 48.3% 89.1 24.3% 30.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.322 31.3% 87.1 20.7% 64.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.266 0.295 37.3% 86.8 22.7% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.305 31.0% 85.4 14.2% 52.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Mahle
tyler-mahle-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.53 2.70 15.2% 12.0% 52.5% 23.8% 22.2%
2018 17 4.19 3.83 23.5% 9.9% 38.6% 42.4% 14.1%
L14 2 3.63 3.38 34.0% 14.0% 44.0% 50.0% 19.2%

We have a single early game on the schedule today, which is included in the showdown and all-day slates. Mahle has pitched better than most probably realize. In 17 starts, he owns a 4.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. While his low ground ball and high hard contact rates are concerning, we have a healthy wind (13 MPH) blowing in from left field in Wrigley. Even with a helping wind, Mahle is still a risky option against the Cubs, whose projected lineup has a .334 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Mahle is an easy fade in the all-day slate and a deep tournament play in the showdown slate.

Mike Montgomery
mike-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.46 3.38 18.5% 10.2% 57.8% 30.2% 20.7%
2018 7 4.28 3.55 16.4% 8.0% 56.2% 31.1% 23.8%
L14 2 4.34 5.73 21.6% 9.8% 35.3% 45.7% 17.1%

Montgomery may not have the highest strikeout rate, but he’s still an effective pitcher at this point of his career. He has good control and an elite ground ball rate. His ability to limit production from right-handed hitters makes him a difficult matchup for most offenses. Today’s matchup against the Reds is far from ideal, but he’s listed as a big favorite at home in a game where the wind is blowing in from left field.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is the preferred pitcher to target in the showdown slate, but is an easy fade in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and are facing a ground-ball pitcher. In terms of the all-day slate, there are better matchups to exploit. However, in the showdown slate, there are a few intriguing plays here. On the season, Mike Montgomery has allowed a .322 xwOBA to lefties and a .305 xwOBA to righties. I’m looking for hitters with low ground ball rates that fare well against southpaws. That list quickly gets narrowed down to Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.272 84.3 0.083 26.4% 3.9% 6.9% 42.5% SS $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.295 87.2 0.213 42.3% 2.0% 25.5% 36.2% 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.383 89.1 0.117 44.2% 17.2% 20.3% 42.9% 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.455 92.3 0.254 57.1% 18.4% 17.2% 37.5% 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.377 93.0 0.236 51.9% 16.3% 23.3% 28.8% OF $3,100 N/A N/A
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.391 90.1 0.132 43.1% 5.4% 13.5% 46.6% OF $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.379 87.9 0.455 44.4% 8.3% 16.7% 44.4% C $2,200 N/A N/A
8 Tyler Mahle RIGHT 0.170 70.8 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 16.7% 75.0% P $7,200 N/A N/A
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.269 80.8 0.120 31.3% 8.5% 32.9% 21.7% OF $2,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.332 86.2 0.179 40.1% 8.9% 19.2% 41.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have an easy matchup to break down — on the season, Tyler Mahle has held right-handed hitters to a .295 xwOBA, while giving up a .378 xwOBA and a 45% hard contact rate to lefties. With the wind blowing in from left field, that should hurt the production of the right-handed hitters anyway. Jason Heyward (.362 xwOBA), Ben Zobrist (.357 xwOBA), Anthony Rizzo (.391 xwOBA), and Kyle Schwarber (.387 xwOBA) all bat from the left side and all have good numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.270 86.4 0.125 31.9% 5.8% 19.5% 48.9% OF $2,600 N/A N/A
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.362 89.2 0.162 34.5% 7.5% 9.4% 41.0% OF $2,900 N/A N/A
3 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.339 89.8 0.278 38.5% 3.7% 28.4% 40.3% 2B $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.391 90.5 0.196 34.7% 11.0% 9.0% 39.3% 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.357 88.5 0.160 34.5% 15.5% 12.4% 45.3% OF $3,100 N/A N/A
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.387 89.4 0.305 40.4% 16.4% 24.4% 43.5% OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.310 87.4 0.155 30.3% 7.6% 19.4% 49.4% C $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.307 86.5 0.105 32.9% 9.8% 21.4% 36.1% SS $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Mike Montgomery LEFT 0.151 68.7 0.000 20.0% 6.7% 60.0% 75.0% P $7,400 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.319 86.3 0.165 33.1% 9.3% 22.7% 46.5%

Elite Plays – Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber (for the showdown slate)

Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber (for the all-day slate)

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
miamimlb Dan Straily washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-200 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.390 46.7% 89.2 21.7% 27.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.255 0.247 26.5% 85.6 30.7% 49.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.424 50.0% 89.5 18.1% 35.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.338 30.9% 87.5 19.7% 50.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.43 4.26 22.1% 7.8% 34.2% 32.6% 19.1%
2018 12 4.83 4.70 20.1% 11.2% 31.4% 48.3% 12.1%
L14 2 3.91 4.05 23.6% 7.3% 35.1% 43.2% 21.6%

Straily will have his hands full tonight against a Nationals’ offense that is finally starting to hit its stride. While Straily is starting to round into form, he’s still a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to batters from both sides of the plate. On the season, he has a 4.83 SIERA with a walk rate of 11% and a hard contact rate of 48%. With the Nationals being one of the top stacks of the slate, Straily is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Straily could be in trouble in this one.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.41 2.96 22.7% 9.6% 45.8% 29.3% 21.9%
2018 17 4.36 3.77 21.8% 10.9% 50.4% 30.1% 17.7%
L14 2 7.77 13.50 18.2% 27.3% 50.0% 16.7% 38.9%

Gonzalez is not a pitcher that I roster often in DFS, so I don’t mind seeing him struggle over his last few starts. Those bad outings have dropped his season-long numbers down quite a bit, as he now owns a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 11%. While there isn’t a ton of downside rostering Gonzalez in a start against the Marlins, his upside could be limited. The projected lineup for Miami has a 20% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez isn’t a bad play by any means, but he’s not one of my favorite pitchers of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins’ stack went off last night in the nation’s capital. I logged off my computer a few hours before lock and didn’t see the update that Jeremy Hellickson was sick. Let me put it this way — I had way too much Hellickson, even if he would have been 100% healthy. Tonight’s matchup against Gio Gonzalez is mediocre at best, but he has allowed a .338 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. I doubt I’ll find room for the Marlins in my lineups, but Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson, and J.T. Realmuto have all hit southpaws well this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.331 90.0 0.071 43.3% 12.2% 19.4% 50.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,400
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.394 92.0 0.163 47.5% 10.9% 16.4% 52.5% OF $2,800 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,300
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.336 86.0 0.143 40.0% 4.5% 26.9% 42.2% C $3,600 C $4,800 C $9,100
4 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.317 85.0 0.080 29.7% 7.4% 14.7% 42.5% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,400
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.305 85.7 0.061 29.6% 15.5% 23.3% 57.7% 1B $2,600 1B $3,400 1B $6,900
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.339 86.4 0.000 31.6% 9.5% 0.0% 42.1% 3B $2,400 3B $2,900 3B $5,400
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.284 89.1 0.194 37.5% 1.5% 34.8% 37.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.318 85.9 0.105 25.0% 9.3% 10.5% 27.9% 3B $2,500 3B/SS $3,100 SS $6,000
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.331 72.1 0.000 50.0% 33.3% 33.3% 100.0% P $6,400 P $5,600 P $10,900
Team Averages 0.328 85.8 0.091 37.1% 11.6% 19.9% 50.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Starlin Castro, Brian Anderson, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

If we take ownership out of the equation, the Nationals are my favorite stack of the slate. They scored 14 runs last night and went through a bunch of Marlins’ relievers. This means that Miami will need Dan Straily to pitch deep into this game (which is a positive for Washington) or they will have to turn to a tired bullpen. Straily not only gives up a lot of walks, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 48% hard contact rate. He has given up a .390 xwOBA to lefties and a .424 xwOBA to righties. Each of the first seven batters in the Nationals’ projected lineup have a .330+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Matt Adams.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.381 87.6 0.125 44.6% 6.7% 16.9% 46.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.332 89.0 0.143 33.7% 9.3% 21.0% 53.4% SS $3,700 SS $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
3 Juan Soto LEFT 0.381 89.5 0.202 36.1% 17.5% 19.3% 47.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.398 91.4 0.236 37.4% 9.3% 14.7% 34.4% 3B $4,100 3B $4,700 3B $9,400
5 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.402 91.2 0.296 43.3% 18.3% 24.0% 36.4% OF $4,300 OF $5,200 RF $9,600
6 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.351 87.9 0.078 17.4% 5.6% 9.3% 30.4% 1B $2,800 2B $4,200 2B $8,200
7 Matt Adams LEFT 0.409 90.3 0.331 45.8% 10.5% 21.7% 32.3% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,600
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.248 82.4 0.080 21.5% 7.9% 23.0% 46.7% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,000
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.067 60.5 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 60.0% 80.0% P $8,000 P $9,500 P $18,600
Team Averages 0.330 85.5 0.166 33.9% 9.5% 23.3% 45.3%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams (bump to elite if he’s batting fifth)

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Pittsburgh
philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-100 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.355 33.0% 88.7 24.4% 40.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.337 25.5% 83.6 11.8% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.274 29.8% 87.3 31.2% 44.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.331 32.6% 87.1 23.4% 41.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 4.32 6.02 24.0% 9.8% 43.8% 35.5% 15.9%
2018 17 3.37 4.66 28.0% 7.3% 43.0% 31.4% 14.8%
L14 2 4.17 10.57 23.8% 11.9% 55.6% 48.2% 18.5%

The rules on rostering Pivetta are very simple. Thanks to his extreme splits, we should only target him when he’s facing a right-handed heavy lineup. He doesn’t have that in his favor tonight, as the Pirates are projected to have five lefties in their lineup. Even though a 28% strikeout rate at this price point is awfully intriguing, this isn’t the best matchup for Pivetta. In addition to all of the lefties, the Pirates have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I’m a Pivetta fan, but this isn’t the time to deploy him.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.63 4.07 18.2% 8.1% 48.0% 28.9% 21.8%
2018 17 4.62 4.22 17.9% 7.9% 41.3% 29.0% 22.9%
L14 2 3.59 5.91 23.3% 4.7% 44.8% 38.7% 16.1%

Williams is not a pitcher that I target often in DFS. He has a below-average strikeout rate and he’s not particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters (.330+ xwOBA allowed to both). With that said, he has good splits at home throughout his career and he draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has a 25% k-rate against righties this season. There are a few cheap pitching options that I prefer over Williams, but I wouldn’t rule him out if you are building five or more tournament lineups.

Quick Breakdown: While not my favorite, Williams is a decent SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While Trevor Williams has allowed a .330+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters, he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. With 14 games on the schedule and a multitude of gas cans on the mound, the Phillies are not going to make any of my lineups (at least not in single-entry or three-max tournaments). If you are mass multi-entering GPPs, Carlos Santana (.398 xwOBA against righties) and Nick Williams (.376 xwOBA against righties) are viable one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.332 83.7 0.141 26.4% 14.5% 22.1% 43.1% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 2B $8,000
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.385 89.2 0.260 36.1% 12.0% 27.3% 26.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 IF/OF $9,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.315 87.4 0.190 26.5% 7.1% 20.6% 43.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,900
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.398 89.3 0.215 37.7% 20.8% 13.5% 35.5% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.376 89.1 0.227 32.4% 9.8% 26.4% 45.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 RF $6,300
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.307 86.3 0.121 26.1% 5.6% 22.3% 38.4% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $5,800
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.308 88.9 0.162 24.1% 5.4% 15.8% 55.9% 3B $2,500 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.323 89.4 0.180 38.9% 10.0% 36.0% 37.0% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,700
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.204 83.7 0.056 20.0% 5.0% 45.0% 66.7% P $8,100 P $8,400 P $16,400
Team Averages 0.328 87.4 0.172 29.8% 10.0% 25.4% 43.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana (GPP), Nick Williams (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have one of the easiest matchups of the slate to break down. As mentioned earlier, Nick Pivetta has been tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .274 xwOBA with a 30% hard contact rate and a 45% ground ball rate. His struggles have come against lefties, as he has given up a .355 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate this season. While I don’t necessarily love any of the Pirates’ hitters, Austin Meadows and Colin Moran are both dirt cheap across the industry. Meadows brings stolen base upside to the table and Moran should be batting clean-up.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.334 87.5 0.135 41.1% 3.2% 19.1% 39.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.325 88.4 0.131 30.4% 10.4% 17.2% 52.0% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
3 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.280 82.9 0.096 30.7% 4.1% 14.5% 37.3% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,300
4 Colin Moran LEFT 0.374 88.9 0.177 34.7% 8.9% 15.6% 40.7% 3B $2,300 3B $3,200 3B $6,600
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.342 87.7 0.163 33.7% 4.3% 11.5% 33.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 LF $7,700
6 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.340 89.2 0.178 30.8% 7.0% 14.0% 52.6% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,400
7 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.369 90.9 0.223 36.2% 13.9% 21.9% 33.6% OF $2,700 OF $4,400 RF $8,500
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.321 88.1 0.141 26.5% 7.3% 22.5% 42.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,900 SS $5,800
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.148 76.6 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 32.0% 60.0% P $6,600 P $6,600 P $13,100
Team Averages 0.315 86.7 0.138 29.3% 6.6% 18.7% 43.5%

Elite Plays – Austin Meadows (GPP), Colin Moran (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Austin Meadows (Cash), Colin Moran (Cash), Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
nyyankeesmlb Sonny Gray torontomlb Sam Gaviglio
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-130 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.355 38.8% 88.8 18.9% 46.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.319 29.2% 87.9 15.7% 43.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.357 0.329 31.9% 90.2 20.5% 48.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.301 28.8% 87.7 27.6% 53.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray
sonny-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.08 3.55 22.6% 8.4% 52.8% 28.0% 16.8%
2018 16 4.46 5.44 19.7% 9.7% 47.6% 35.2% 15.2%
L14 2 4.54 10.00 16.3% 7.0% 46.9% 39.4% 6.1%

Let me start by saying the total for this game feels too high. We have two right-handed heavy offenses that are facing two right-handed pitchers with high ground ball rates against righties. Gray has been hit or miss all season, but he has shown upside at times. In fact, he’s scored at least 24 fantasy points (DK scoring) in four of his last ten starts. The question is whether or not we feel better about Gray than we do about the other cheap pitchers in this slate (Zimmermann, Lynn, Williams). One argument for Gray is that he has been dominant against this current Blue Jays’ roster, holding them to a .257 wOBA with 36 strikeouts in 156 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Sam Gaviglio
sam-gaviglio-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.96 4.36 15.7% 8.3% 49.4% 31.5% 15.7%
2018 8 3.82 3.97 22.6% 7.0% 48.5% 29.0% 19.6%
L14 2 3.94 4.63 21.7% 6.5% 50.0% 36.4% 15.2%

Gaviglio is quietly having a nice season. I was actually surprised when I first saw that he’s already made eight starts. I honestly can’t remember writing him up all that often in the Grind Down. Anyway, he currently owns a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 49%. The Yankees are far from an ideal matchup, as their projected lineup has a .343 xwOBA, a 38% hard contact rate, and a 10% walk rate against right-handed pitching this season. Given the matchup and the size of the slate, I’ll be looking elsewhere for an SP2.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio has good numbers and an attractive price point, but is too risky in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are my least favorite offense that has an implied run total of at least five runs tonight. That’s not to say that they can’t fare well tonight, but this isn’t a great matchup. Sam Gaviglio has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. It doesn’t help that the Yankees are priced up across the industry. Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Didi Gregorius are all viable in tournaments, but I see them as secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.304 87.2 0.149 30.0% 12.9% 15.4% 51.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 LF $6,600
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.410 96.7 0.312 50.0% 14.3% 29.7% 46.5% OF $5,100 OF $5,500 RF $10,400
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.357 88.8 0.202 38.5% 13.4% 19.1% 43.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 CF $9,100
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.304 91.4 0.188 34.2% 7.8% 33.2% 53.3% OF $4,500 OF $5,000 RF $10,000
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.349 88.3 0.255 40.1% 9.5% 12.8% 33.3% SS $4,100 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
6 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.352 90.3 0.205 37.0% 2.9% 17.4% 49.7% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.297 88.4 0.238 35.0% 7.6% 26.1% 40.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.379 89.9 0.203 37.3% 12.2% 18.9% 41.2% C $2,200 C $3,500 C $6,600
9 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.334 88.2 0.081 35.9% 10.5% 21.6% 41.2% 2B $2,500 1B/2B $2,900 2B $5,600
Team Averages 0.343 89.9 0.204 37.6% 10.1% 21.6% 44.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a boom or bust matchup against Sonny Gray. He’s had some Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde tendencies this season. With a large range of potential outcomes here, I don’t mind targeting either side of this matchup. Throughout his career, Gray has had reverse splits and this season he has struggled against lefties, allowing a .355 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate. This isn’t one of my favorite spots to target, but Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, and Justin Smoak are all viable tournament plays, as they all boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.352 88.2 0.222 37.1% 13.4% 28.2% 34.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 RF $7,200
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.397 92.3 0.241 40.6% 5.4% 24.8% 37.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 LF $8,500
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.341 88.8 0.179 30.9% 7.8% 16.4% 40.0% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $3,900 3B $7,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.381 91.9 0.225 34.8% 18.1% 26.5% 34.7% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,300
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.333 87.9 0.152 34.8% 4.2% 19.9% 39.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.319 90.7 0.148 32.7% 16.2% 23.7% 45.5% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,500
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.341 91.4 0.273 39.2% 7.3% 26.0% 40.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 RF $7,700
8 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.388 93.7 0.228 36.4% 1.7% 22.4% 40.9% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,300 2B $6,800
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.340 89.0 0.191 35.6% 3.1% 13.2% 43.9% SS $2,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
Team Averages 0.355 90.4 0.207 35.8% 8.6% 22.3% 39.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Oakland Cleveland
oaklandmlb Paul Blackburn clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-190 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.317 31.6% 89.4 19.6% 45.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.289 33.0% 90.0 27.4% 42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.321 21.1% 84.7 12.5% 55.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.327 38.8% 89.0 24.2% 41.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Paul Blackburn
paul-blackburn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 10 5.15 3.22 9.2% 6.7% 56.3% 26.1% 18.1%
2018 5 4.21 6.46 16.2% 5.1% 50.7% 26.3% 13.2%
L14 2 3.74 4.76 20.5% 2.3% 40.6% 34.4% 15.6%

Blackburn better bring a Gameboy (sorry, I’m not up to date with the latest handheld gaming devices) because this is going to be a quick outing. He’s going to have a couple of free hours on his hands after he’s pulled from his start against the Indians. He has a low strikeout rate and relies on a high ground ball rate for his success. He’s facing a Cleveland offense that was built to hit fly balls. As a whole, their lineup owns a .361 xwOBA with a 41% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: May I suggest Super Mario Land for you, Blackburn?

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $10,800 Salary: $21,200
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4%
2018 15 3.46 4.24 25.6% 5.9% 42.2% 36.4% 12.3%

Carrasco has missed the last few weeks with a forearm injury, but will be back on the mound tonight against the A’s. He did make one rehab start (and clocked a 97 MPH fastball), but only threw 58 pitches. It doesn’t sound like he’s going to face a strict pitch count, but I’d be surprised if he threw more than 100. In addition to the potential pitch count and potential rust issues, he’s facing a talented A’s offense and he’s facing them at home. Carrasco is one of the few starters in baseball that we actually prefer to target on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Given the wealth of options at pitcher tonight, Carrasco is a fade.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s are going to be less than 5% owned tonight, even though they are facing a pitcher that is coming off of an injury and that has struggled in this ballpark throughout his career. I’m not sure that I will end up targeting the A’s given how many options we have to choose from tonight, but I would rather take a few shots on one-offs rather than using Carrasco. Each of the first seven hitters in Oakland’s projected lineup has a .335+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Dustin Fowler, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, and Matt Chapman.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dustin Fowler LEFT 0.343 90.1 0.159 47.0% 5.2% 20.0% 42.0% OF $2,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,300
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.344 87.2 0.148 36.2% 13.2% 23.4% 31.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 RF $6,500
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.336 88.7 0.240 36.5% 10.8% 21.1% 37.3% 2B $3,800 2B/3B $4,800 2B $9,200
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.432 93.9 0.281 49.7% 7.8% 23.0% 36.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 LF $8,800
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.410 94.3 0.258 53.3% 11.1% 25.9% 32.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,500
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.376 88.8 0.178 47.0% 6.4% 19.1% 44.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 RF $7,400
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.383 92.8 0.203 45.5% 11.8% 22.7% 39.1% 3B $3,000 3B $3,900 3B $7,500
8 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.302 85.7 0.083 27.9% 7.2% 17.9% 44.2% SS $3,400 SS $3,800 SS $7,200
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.329 88.3 0.088 41.9% 5.8% 14.5% 45.2% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.362 90.0 0.182 42.8% 8.8% 20.8% 39.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dustin Fowler, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

Will the Indians be popular tonight? Sure, but I don’t expect their ownership to get to the point where we can’t play them in tournaments. There are 14 games on the schedule and Cleveland’s hitters are very expensive, which makes stacking a tough proposition if you are looking to play one of the top pitchers. Paul Blackburn is a low strikeout pitcher that hasn’t been particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters this season. Meanwhile, each of the first five batters in the Indians’ projected lineup has a .385+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.414 90.0 0.300 42.1% 9.9% 19.8% 34.9% SS $5,100 SS $5,900 SS $11,100
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.406 91.4 0.201 43.3% 7.1% 9.1% 43.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 LF $9,000
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.427 89.7 0.348 39.8% 16.9% 11.5% 30.6% 3B $5,000 3B $5,800 IF/OF $10,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.387 90.1 0.272 41.9% 8.2% 24.3% 38.1% 1B $4,100 1B $4,900 1B $8,700
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.390 91.1 0.186 42.4% 10.0% 20.5% 38.9% 1B $2,900 1B $4,500 1B $9,400
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.350 87.4 0.128 37.4% 8.7% 19.0% 35.8% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.280 88.5 0.170 40.0% 4.8% 32.7% 37.0% C $2,500 C $3,700 C $7,700
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.328 90.9 0.093 41.8% 4.3% 25.2% 51.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.267 85.9 0.118 38.7% 5.4% 26.1% 40.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
Team Averages 0.361 89.4 0.202 40.8% 8.4% 20.9% 39.1%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious