MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-09 02:27:48

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Pittsburgh
			Jake Arrieta					Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -165					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.232	6	28.7%	9.0%	SP vs. Left	0.279	6	25.7%	9.2%
SP vs. Right	0.232	9	25.3%	5.0%	SP vs. Right	0.313	23	24.3%	11.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,300	Salary:		$12,700
					FPPG:		42.9	FPPG:		23.8
					Pitcher Rating:		83.0	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	6	105.3	4.00	4.05	27.0%	11.5%	11.1%	46.6%	31.8%	28.9%
2016	17	102.9	3.67	2.33	26.4%	9.6%	10.8%	54.2%	26.4%	23.6%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Arrieta comes into tonight’s game in a little bit of a slide. Over the last month of play, he has a 4.00 SIERA with a walk rate of 11.5%. The strikeouts are still there, but the walks have really come back to haunt him in his last few starts. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Arrieta typically grades out as a top two pitching option, but I actually have four pitchers ranked ahead of him tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Francisco Liriano
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		24.8	FPPG:		11.4
					Pitcher Rating:		62.0	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	5	97.2	5.13	5.54	20.2%	13.7%	10.1%	44.3%	34.2%	25.0%
2016	16	96.3	4.95	5.34	21.0%	13.6%	10.1%	49.2%	31.7%	33.7%
2015	31	96.2	3.38	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	14.3%	51.2%	26.3%	24.3%

Liriano looks like a completely different pitcher this season. In 16 starts, he has a 4.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 13.6%. He isn’t getting as many hitters to chase his breaking stuff, which has led to a higher walk rate that ultimately ends up driving up his pitch count. Liriano can be avoided tonight against the Cubs, who are ranked fourth in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs may have a favorable matchup tonight, but they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They have a below-average run projection, which does take some of their fantasy appeal away. That doesn’t mean that we can’t target any of their hitters, but they are better secondary plays than elite plays. On the season, Francisco Liriano has allowed a .367 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.350 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.192 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.28 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.393	0.180	0.342	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,600
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.376	0.268	0.502	3B	$3,600	3B/OF	$5,500
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.370	0.205	0.404	1B	$4,800	1B	$4,800
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.431	0.235	0.375	C	$2,700	C/OF	$3,900
5	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.294	0.147	0.296	C	$2,400	C	$3,300
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.311	0.097	0.280	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.249	0.137	0.390	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,300
8	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.310	0.121	0.754	P	$11,300	P	$12,700
9	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.429	0.224	0.367	SS	$2,500	2B/3B	$4,200
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.179	0.412	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Javier Baez

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

The Pirates don’t hit for many extra bases, but they are ranked 11th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The issue here is their matchup. In the last two seasons, Jake Arrieta has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .235 wOBA. Even in his less than stellar form, I will not be targeting any batters against Arrieta.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.64 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.37 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.351	0.153	0.308	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,900
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.347	0.168	0.276	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.356	0.192	0.312	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.358	0.161	0.275	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.333	0.148	0.398	1B	$3,000	1B/3B	$3,600
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.299	0.103	0.264	2B	$2,800	2B	$2,900
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.270	0.069	0.354	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.056	0.016	0.138	C	$2,200	C	$2,000
9	Francisco Liriano	LEFT	0.255	0.085	0.000	P	$8,100	P	$6,000
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.122	0.258	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Baltimore
			Matt Shoemaker					Ubaldo Jimenez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -114					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.313	16	20.5%	6.3%	SP vs. Left	0.342	20	21.4%	9.7%
SP vs. Right	0.336	19	23.1%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.339	10	19.3%	10.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Shoemaker
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,700
					FPPG:		28.5	FPPG:		15.1
					Pitcher Rating:		60.7	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	6	102.8	3.50	2.95	25.2%	4.4%	14.1%	36.7%	42.2%	31.8%
2016	16	93.6	3.70	4.40	23.7%	5.1%	13.9%	36.6%	37.4%	30.7%
2015	24	87.0	3.98	4.46	20.4%	6.2%	9.1%	39.2%	42.4%	30.9%

Shoemaker has really turned his season around over the last six weeks. During that stretch, his numbers resemble those of an ace on pretty much any staff. With each and every start, he is proving that he isn’t just a flash in the pan and that he may be able to sustain those type of numbers moving forward. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Orioles, who are ranked second in team wOBA and 21st in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Given the location of the game, Shoemaker is best suited as a GPP play.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ubaldo Jimenez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		19.5	FPPG:		7.5
					Pitcher Rating:		46.3	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	5	94.0	5.08	7.83	20.7%	13.8%	8.7%	44.0%	38.7%	36.8%
2016	16	94.1	4.99	6.95	18.5%	12.3%	7.6%	49.6%	29.5%	33.7%
2015	32	95.6	3.93	4.11	21.2%	8.6%	8.0%	49.1%	28.8%	27.0%

Jimenez has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last month of play, posting a 7.83 ERA with a walk rate of 13.8% and a hard hit contact rate of 36.8%. His price is getting to an all-time low, but it doesn’t really matter when he is scoring in the negative every other start. He draws a bad fantasy matchup tonight against the Angels, who have the lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball this season.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels don’t have a ton of power in their lineup, but they make contact and have made a habit of ruining opposing pitcher’s fantasy outings. They come into tonight’s game with the ninth highest run projection. They draw a favorable matchup against the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.6% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.53 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.66 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.342	0.092	0.476	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,500
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.329	0.163	0.297	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.416	0.285	0.563	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,600
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.328	0.199	0.425	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,700
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.341	0.202	0.466	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,700
6	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.264	0.064	0.310	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200
7	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.310	0.133	0.286	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,700
8	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.291	0.080	0.411	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,900
9	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.278	0.126	0.355	C	$2,500	C	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.149	0.399	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles have the highest ISO of any offense against right-handed pitching this season. They have the eighth highest team total on the board tonight, as they square off against Matt Shoemaker at home. If this game was being played two months ago, this would be a great matchup. However, Shoemaker has been one of the best pitchers in baseball recently. I see the Orioles as GPP plays in this one.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.201 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.12 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.84 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.340	0.210	0.382	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,500
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.410	0.144	0.468	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.388	0.244	0.354	3B	$4,100	3B/SS	$5,000
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.392	0.320	0.364	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,800
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.346	0.206	0.401	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,900
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.339	0.174	0.304	C	$2,600	C	$3,600
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.371	0.231	0.408	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,600
8	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.341	0.240	0.381	3B	$2,700	1B	$4,000
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.262	0.113	0.247	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.354	0.209	0.368	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – NONE

Detroit at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Toronto
			Mike Pelfrey					J.A. Happ
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -170					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.375	12	11.0%	10.3%	SP vs. Left	0.303	4	23.1%	6.1%
SP vs. Right	0.332	12	12.0%	3.9%	SP vs. Right	0.305	25	19.1%	6.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Mike Pelfrey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		16.8	FPPG:		6.4
					Pitcher Rating:		24.6	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	5	105.0	5.12	4.81	8.0%	8.0%	5.3%	59.0%	22.1%	28.8%
2016	16	97.9	5.25	4.78	10.5%	8.4%	7.0%	52.4%	26.7%	31.0%
2015	30	88.8	4.59	4.26	12.0%	6.3%	5.6%	50.8%	26.4%	26.1%

Pelfrey is one of my favorite pitchers to see on the schedule because when he is on the mound, there are going to be at least a few hitters that are in play from the opposing offense. In 16 starts this season, he has a 5.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 10.5%. He does induce a high ground ball rate, but when you have such a low strikeout rate, it doesn’t accomplish much. He should be avoided tonight against the Blue Jays.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
J.A. Happ
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		33.3	FPPG:		16.6
					Pitcher Rating:		59.7	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	5	97.4	3.64	3.48	24.6%	5.4%	10.7%	39.3%	39.3%	33.0%
2016	17	94.1	4.49	3.54	18.4%	7.1%	9.1%	43.2%	35.6%	32.4%
2015	31	91.6	3.82	3.61	21.1%	6.3%	8.1%	41.6%	34.1%	31.2%

Happ is having a mediocre season so far, posting a 4.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.4%. This is a matchup that does not suit his style of pitching, as the Tigers’ lineup may have nine right-handed batters in it tonight. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed 25 home runs to right-handed hitters. Happ is a large favorite here, but he will likely give up a few runs even if he does get the win.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have slowly climbed the offensive rankings against left-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s game with the tenth highest run projection, as they take on J.A. Happ in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. As I mentioned above, J.A. Happ has allowed 25 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.330 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.173 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.2% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.91 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.59 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.367	0.178	0.351	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,400
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.355	0.128	0.394	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,100
3	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.382	0.168	0.334	C	$3,700	1B	$4,700
4	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.355	0.172	0.316	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,400
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.373	0.237	0.472	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,700
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.277	0.140	0.250	OF	$3,100	OF	$2,300
7	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.274	0.085	0.286	2B	$2,500	3B/OF	$2,600
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.382	0.247	0.263	C	$2,000	C	$2,700
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.348	0.121	0.261	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.346	0.164	0.325	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays are ranked sixth in team wOBA and second in team ISO against right-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Mike Pelfrey, who has basically been a punching bag for opposing offenses all season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, as the Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run totals on the board.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.197 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.92 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.41 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.303	0.107	0.319	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.399	0.274	0.537	3B	$4,800	3B	$5,600
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.385	0.275	0.422	1B	$4,700	1B	$5,400
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.363	0.212	0.337	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.308	0.177	0.315	C	$3,000	C	$3,800
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.329	0.184	0.423	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,800
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.305	0.134	0.258	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
8	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.328	0.223	0.224	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,800
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.360	0.191	0.338	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,300
	Team Averages	—	0.342	0.197	0.353	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cincinnati					Miami
			Dan Straily					Jose Fernandez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -270					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.305	7	14.2%	14.6%	SP vs. Left	0.325	8	28.1%	8.8%
SP vs. Right	0.300	7	26.1%	5.8%	SP vs. Right	0.203	3	40.1%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dan Straily
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,900
					FPPG:		23.9	FPPG:		12.3
					Pitcher Rating:		36.8	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	5	94.0	5.69	6.75	15.6%	11.5%	8.1%	28.7%	47.1%	35.2%
2016	15	106.5	4.89	4.34	19.6%	10.8%	9.6%	35.4%	42.6%	32.1%
2015	3	97.0	4.67	5.40	18.4%	10.5%	9.6%	41.5%	37.7%	28.3%

Straily has been in awful form over the last month, posting a 5.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.6% and a walk rate of 11.5%. After a decent start to the season, the wheels seem to be coming off the track. He checks in as a huge underdog tonight against the Marlins in Miami. With Jose Fernandez pitching opposite him, run support could be very limited.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Fernandez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,700	Salary:		$13,400
					FPPG:		45.2	FPPG:		25.5
					Pitcher Rating:		98.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	4	98.0	2.56	3.86	35.0%	5.8%	13.8%	45.8%	30.5%	31.7%
2016	16	100.5	2.63	2.69	37.0%	7.9%	14.9%	41.6%	32.1%	32.6%
2015	11	90.2	2.77	2.92	29.8%	5.3%	13.3%	40.1%	31.1%	29.4%

I love watching Fernandez pitch. Not only is he one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he always plays with such fire. On the season, he has a 2.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 37%. Even with the likes of Jake Arrieta, Stephen Strasburg, and Noah Syndergaard on the mound, Fernandez is easily the top pitching option in this slate. He should be able to dominate a Reds’ offense that is ranked 27th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have the lowest implied team total on the schedule tonight. They draw an tough matchup against Jose Fernandez and they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Left-handed hitters have had some success off of Fernandez, but most of that came from last season. Avoid the Reds’ offense in both cash games and GPPs.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.161 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.30 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.52 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.324	0.194	0.320	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,200
2	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.253	0.061	0.280	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,600
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.411	0.229	0.465	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,500
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.335	0.257	0.263	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,100
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.358	0.332	0.254	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.297	0.150	0.276	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,500
7	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.305	0.109	0.234	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,200
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.304	0.100	0.470	C	$2,700	C	$2,300
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.038	0.000	0.000	P	$6,400	P	$5,900
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.159	0.285	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Miami

The Marlins are one of those offenses that never stand out as a whole, but they have a few hitters that stand out from a fantasy perspective. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Dan Straily, who has been in awful form recently. Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton all boast a .345+ wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.322 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.20 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.48 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.379	0.192	0.422	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.307	0.092	0.292	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,500
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.368	0.149	0.333	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.309	0.143	0.270	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.356	0.264	0.452	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900
6	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.250	0.088	0.296	1B	$2,400	1B/3B	$2,400
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.320	0.128	0.400	C	$3,400	C	$4,000
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.273	0.084	0.265	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,900
9	Jose Fernandez	RIGHT	0.239	0.116	0.621	P	$11,700	P	$13,400
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.140	0.372	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Yankees					Cleveland
			Chad Green					Corey Kluber
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -180					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.486	2	23.5%	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.305	15	25.2%	6.4%
SP vs. Right	0.239	1	34.5%	3.5%	SP vs. Right	0.245	16	28.3%	4.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chad Green
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		24.0	FPPG:		13.2
					Pitcher Rating:		53.7	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	1	84.0	1.49	1.29	39.1%	0.0%	14.3%	53.8%	23.1%	35.7%
2016	2	81.5	2.59	4.09	30.4%	2.2%	12.3%	44.8%	31.0%	45.2%

Green will be making his third career major league start tonight. He has pitched well in his first two starts and he had great numbers in the minor leagues. His 30.4% strikeout rate is obviously unsustainable, but he does offer decent value at his price point. There are two issues that I have with him heading into tonight’s start. The first is his matchup – the Indians are a top ten offense against right-handed pitching. The second is that he is still inexperienced at the major league level.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Corey Kluber
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$11,000
					FPPG:		37.4	FPPG:		21.2
					Pitcher Rating:		81.7	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	101.6	3.50	3.67	25.4%	6.5%	11.4%	48.9%	28.9%	25.5%
2016	17	98.3	3.51	3.79	24.9%	5.9%	11.7%	48.9%	31.9%	27.0%
2015	32	102.3	2.98	3.49	27.7%	5.1%	12.9%	42.4%	35.9%	27.0%

Kluber is having another solid season for the Indians, posting a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.9%. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Yankees. While they don’t have great numbers against right-handed pitching, they do have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. The good news is that with elite strikeout pitchers like Kluber, the strikeouts are usually there regardless of his opponent. It’s a good spot for him, but it’s hard to justify taking him over the other aces on the schedule.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are a bottom ten offense against right-handed pitching and they come into toinght’s game with the ninth lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Corey Kluber, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.5% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.13 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.54 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.313	0.103	0.337	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.330	0.139	0.239	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.355	0.211	0.369	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.323	0.199	0.225	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,000
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.329	0.207	0.407	C	$3,000	C	$3,600
6	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.353	0.280	0.329	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,100
7	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.291	0.128	0.278	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,800
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.315	0.144	0.404	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,600
9	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.306	0.113	0.355	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.169	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Cleveland

The Indians have quietly been humming along offensively. They are ranked eighth in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Chad Green, who is only making his third career major league start. Give a slight edge to the left-handed hitters in this lineup, as Green has struggled a bit with lefties in his first two starts.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.86 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.46 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.352	0.232	0.460	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,900
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.377	0.185	0.388	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,900
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.346	0.157	0.291	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,600
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.297	0.176	0.338	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.314	0.137	0.320	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,500
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.316	0.148	0.419	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,400
7	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.325	0.168	0.362	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,700
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.415	0.271	0.455	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,300
9	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.257	0.171	0.141	C	$2,600	C	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.333	0.183	0.353	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 8th

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Javier Baez

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – NONE

Detroit at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Christian Yelich

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GPP

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