MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-25 02:52:35

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Dodgers		Pittsburgh
	Nick Tepesch				Jameson Taillon
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	PIT -125				8.5
SP vs. Left		SP vs. Left	0.340	2	12.5%	6.3%
SP vs. Right		SP vs. Right	0.314	2	30.4%	4.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	K%	SS%	GB%	HH%
Nick Tepesch
	FanDuel		DraftKings
	Salary:		Salary:	$4,000
	FPPG:		FPPG:	0.0
	Pitcher Rating:	38.0	Pitcher Rank:	25

Tepesch is making his first start since 2014 when he was with the Rangers. He has decent numbers in the Dodgers’ minor league system this season, but didn’t fare well in his 11 starts with the Rangers Triple-A ball club before they released him. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog with the total set at 8.5 runs. Given his lack of strikeout upside and the fact that he is pitching on the road, he can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jameson Taillon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		28.0	FPPG:		14.6
					Pitcher Rating:		59.9	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	3	89.0	3.92	3.50	18.3%	5.6%	6.4%	52.9%	25.5%	35.9%
2016	3	89.0	3.92	3.50	18.3%	5.6%	6.4%	52.9%	25.5%	35.9%

Tailon has been a nice source of value in his first three major league starts, posting a 3.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.3%. He has shown good command and he has produced a high ground ball rate. It’s still too early for me to consider him in cash games, but you could maybe give him a look in some tournaments. On the season, the Dodgers are ranked 23rd in team wOBA and 18th in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Jameson Tailon, who is only making his fourth career major league start. The sample size is obviously small, but Tailon has allowed a .340 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. The Dodgers are in a decent spot as a whole, but they are far from must plays tonight, especially with a game in Coors Field.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.10 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.307	0.137	0.291	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,700
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.394	0.235	0.364	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,500
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.363	0.200	0.448	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,400
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.346	0.195	0.259	1B	$3,000	1B	$2,900
5	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.352	0.215	0.226	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
6	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.350	0.232	0.440	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400
7	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.321	0.178	0.280	C	$2,800	C	$3,000
8	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.298	0.134	0.376	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500
9	Nick Tepesch	RIGHT						P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.191	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season, but they draw a favorable matchup against Nick Tepesch. He hasn’t had great numbers in the minor leagues this season and he hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014. If you look at his career splits, Tepesch has allowed a .338 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .333 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.143 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.57 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.40 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.350	0.158	0.261	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,900
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.346	0.163	0.332	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.357	0.188	0.215	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,000
4	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.369	0.202	0.299	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,600
5	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.362	0.163	0.439	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.301	0.103	0.167	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,500
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.262	0.060	0.293	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.283	0.067	0.248	C	$2,100	C	$2,100
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.123	0.250	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen (DK), Jung Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen (FD), Starling Marte

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Minnesota					NY Yankees
			Tommy Milone					Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -210					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.287	5	20.4%	7.2%	SP vs. Left	0.274	15	22.4%	4.3%
SP vs. Right	0.333	17	16.2%	6.5%	SP vs. Right	0.279	18	20.2%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tommy Milone
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		16.4	FPPG:		8.1
					Pitcher Rating:		39.2	Pitcher Rank:		23
2016	4	105.5	4.10	5.79	19.4%	7.1%	8.3%	48.6%	30.0%	40.3%
2015	23	89.9	4.39	3.92	16.8%	6.6%	8.1%	41.6%	35.4%	26.0%

Milone is making his fifth start of the season, but his first in over a month. He has been a hittable pitcher in the past, posting a SIERA well over 4.00 with a strikeout rate well under 20%. He is typically tough on left-handed hitters, but he has struggled with batters from the right side of the plate. In a matchup on the road against the Yankees in a hitter-friendly ballpark, he is an easy fade.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Masahiro Tanaka
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$8,800
					FPPG:		31.4	FPPG:		17.4
					Pitcher Rating:		74.7	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	95.8	4.27	2.36	13.5%	3.0%	8.4%	47.7%	26.6%	38.2%
2016	14	94.4	3.77	2.91	18.5%	4.4%	11.0%	52.3%	26.7%	32.3%
2015	24	95.4	3.36	3.51	22.8%	4.4%	11.4%	47.0%	33.8%	31.1%

When it comes to pitching tonight, it’s basically Max Scherzer and then everyone else. Tanaka makes a lot of sense as an SP2. His strikeout rate has been down this season, but he still owns a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.5% and a walk rate of 4.4%. The Twins’ offense has come alive over the last week of play, but they are still ranked 21st or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins had a nice series against the Phillies, but come into tonight’s game with the third lowest team total on the board. Yankee Stadium is always generous to hitters, but I will be avoiding the Twins’ offense against Masahiro Tanaka. Over the last two seasons, Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under .280 wOBA.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.148 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.06 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.37 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.339	0.117	0.259	SS	$3,300	3B/SS	$4,200
2	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.355	0.211	0.348	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,100
3	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.324	0.117	0.268	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.314	0.188	0.415	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000
5	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.305	0.175	0.275	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,200
6	Byung-Ho Park	RIGHT	0.308	0.232	0.161	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,000
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.344	0.211	0.377	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.270	0.081	0.484	C	$2,400	C	$2,600
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.289	0.156	0.205	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.165	0.310	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

The Yankees’ matchup against Tommy Milone is incredibly easy to break down. He has been tough on left-handed hitters in his career, but has allowed a .333 wOBA and 17 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. I will be giving a hard look to all of the right-handed bats in this lineup, especially since the game is being played in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.304 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.135 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 17.8% (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.63 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.289	0.086	0.238	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,500
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.311	0.093	0.336	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,600
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.347	0.241	0.401	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.378	0.263	0.226	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$3,800
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.305	0.109	0.267	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,300
6	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.319	0.180	0.342	C	$3,300	C	$3,800
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.307	0.108	0.402	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,300
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.313	0.078	0.450	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,800
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.326	0.125	0.351	1B	$2,800	1B	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.143	0.335	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Alex Rodriguez

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Starlin Castro, Chase Headley

Stackability – GPP

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					Baltimore
			Matt Moore					Yovani Gallardo
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -135					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.323	7	15.5%	6.1%	SP vs. Left	0.339	11	14.8%	9.2%
SP vs. Right	0.360	17	21.2%	8.2%	SP vs. Right	0.311	6	15.3%	8.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Moore
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		27.4	FPPG:		13.8
					Pitcher Rating:		48.6	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	103.2	4.14	3.98	22.0%	6.8%	10.3%	34.5%	48.3%	33.7%
2016	14	99.5	4.04	4.90	21.9%	7.0%	10.6%	40.2%	39.3%	34.5%
2015	12	88.0	4.67	5.43	16.6%	8.3%	9.9%	39.2%	38.7%	31.7%

Moore got off to a nice start this season, but has since struggled. Through 14 starts, he owns a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9%. His biggest issue has been the hard contact that he is allowed. When you are a fly ball pitcher that gives up hard contact, you are going to struggle from time to time. He is an easy fade tonight against the Orioles, who have the fourth highest team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Yovani Gallardo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,700
					FPPG:		17.4	FPPG:		6.5
					Pitcher Rating:		46.4	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	1	85.0	5.58	3.60	21.7%	17.4%	7.1%	35.7%	50.0%	35.7%
2016	5	84.0	5.60	6.26	13.2%	10.4%	5.5%	37.5%	41.3%	28.4%
2015	33	97.8	4.59	3.42	15.3%	8.6%	6.5%	49.3%	28.7%	25.5%

Gallardo is not the type of pitcher that stands out from a fantasy perspective. Over the course of the last two seasons, he has a SIERA close to 5.00 with a strikeout rate of around 14%. He walks too many batters and his splits against left-handed hitters don’t look great. He may be a favorite tonight against the Rays, but there is more risk than potential reward. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside to make up for mistakes.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays may not have the best numbers against right-handed pitching this season, but you have to like the spot that they are in tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Yovani Gallardo and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Over the last two seasons, Gallardo has allowed a .339 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .311 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.183 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.3% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.01 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.54 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.328	0.113	0.290	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,900
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.336	0.192	0.336	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.320	0.189	0.352	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,900
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.317	0.183	0.241	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700
5	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.287	0.128	0.255	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.350	0.280	0.235	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
7	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.180	0.087	0.246	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,200
8	Jaff Decker	LEFT	0.271	0.083	0.087	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,000
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.331	0.193	0.299	C	$2,100	C	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.161	0.260	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles have the second highest team total outside of Coors Field tonight. They have a ton of power in their lineup, they are playing at home, and they draw a favorable matchup against Matt Moore. The right-handed hitters are obviously the preferred targets in this matchup, but you can even look to Chris Davis in tournaments. Moore has allowed a .323 wOBA to lefties over the last two seasons.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.311 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.179 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.3% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.87 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.96 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.290	0.158	0.352	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.388	0.215	0.483	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
3	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.340	0.208	0.423	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,700
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.352	0.265	0.271	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400
5	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.291	0.136	0.350	C	$3,200	C	$3,600
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.271	0.116	0.474	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,600
7	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.243	0.069	0.256	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,600
8	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.316	0.134	0.139	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000
9	Paul Janish	RIGHT	0.231	0.057	0.302	SS	$2,000	3B	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.151	0.339	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Joey Rickard, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis (GPP), Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Detroit
			Danny Salazar					Jordan Zimmermann
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -108					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.282	16	28.2%	7.2%	SP vs. Left	0.315	17	19.0%	6.3%
SP vs. Right	0.282	13	25.8%	9.4%	SP vs. Right	0.285	15	18.0%	3.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Salazar
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$13,000
					FPPG:		43.5	FPPG:		23.9
					Pitcher Rating:		74.4	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	4	107.5	3.92	2.05	27.9%	11.5%	9.5%	42.9%	39.7%	44.4%
2016	13	104.6	3.73	2.23	29.5%	11.7%	11.9%	48.7%	37.0%	32.6%
2015	30	101.6	3.39	3.45	25.8%	7.0%	11.8%	43.9%	37.4%	28.9%

Salazar continues to pitch well for the Indians. While his command hasn’t been as sharp as a season ago, we are gladly willing to overlook that with the type of numbers that he is putting up. In 13 starts, he has a 3.73 SIERA (2.23 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 29.5%. I love his upside in this matchup, as he will have the platoon advantage against the Tigers. The potential reward doesn’t come without risk though, as the Tigers are ranked sixth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I like Salazar more in tournaments than I do in cash games.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jordan Zimmermann
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		33.5	FPPG:		16.6
					Pitcher Rating:		57.6	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	4	98.3	4.68	4.97	13.7%	4.9%	8.4%	49.4%	38.3%	31.3%
2016	13	101.2	4.50	3.24	15.5%	4.6%	7.6%	44.9%	39.1%	27.0%
2015	33	94.0	3.83	3.66	19.7%	4.7%	8.4%	42.0%	36.2%	29.5%

Zimmerman has seen the bitter end of regression. His ERA was well below his SIERA for the first month of the season and as predicted, we have seen him come back down to Earth. Over his last four starts, he has a 4.68 SIERA (4.97 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 13.7%. Given his lack of strikeout upside, he is an easy fade in DFS. It also doesn’t help that the Indians are a top ton offense against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians have a better matchup than their implied team total suggests, but I don’t see any of their hitters as must plays tonight. Jordan Zimmermann has allowed a .315 wOBA and 17 home runs to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons, but with some of the high team totals on the board tonight, there are better matchups to exploit.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.77 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.05 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.344	0.223	0.410	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,100
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.376	0.176	0.351	2B	$3,800	2B	$3,600
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.347	0.152	0.389	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,200
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.292	0.175	0.271	1B	$3,100	1B	$2,900
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.317	0.142	0.284	3B	$3,200	3B/OF	$3,400
6	Juan Uribe	RIGHT	0.303	0.147	0.400	3B	$2,800	3B	$2,500
7	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.299	0.128	0.290	OF	$3,100	OF	$2,600
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.265	0.175	0.244	C	$2,600	C	$2,600
9	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.386	0.221	0.432	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.171	0.341	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

The Tigers are small underdogs tonight against Danny Salazar and the Indians. Detroit is an offense that can pop in any matchup, but it’s hard to justify targeting any of their hitters tonight. Over the last two seasons, Salazar has held both left and right-handed hitters to a .282 wOBA.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.335 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.95 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.151	0.320	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,100
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.305	0.082	0.231	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,900
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.420	0.227	0.425	1B	$4,300	1B	$3,600
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.297	0.145	0.318	C	$3,000	1B	$2,700
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.313	0.167	0.306	3B	$3,600	3B	$2,800
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.338	0.201	0.381	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
7	Steven Moya	LEFT	0.365	0.257	0.516	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,000
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SWITCH	0.317	0.210	0.261	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.292	0.059	0.380	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.167	0.349	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Miami
			Kyle Hendricks					Tom Koehler
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -150					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.323	14	20.8%	6.9%	SP vs. Left	0.341	18	18.7%	11.2%
SP vs. Right	0.255	9	24.2%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.298	8	16.6%	10.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kyle Hendricks
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,500
					FPPG:		31.4	FPPG:		17.5
					Pitcher Rating:		79.5	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	96.2	3.27	2.43	26.3%	5.3%	10.8%	47.7%	34.9%	25.8%
2016	13	90.3	3.51	2.94	22.8%	5.9%	9.2%	54.0%	27.4%	25.0%
2015	32	87.3	3.37	3.95	22.6%	5.8%	8.1%	51.3%	26.9%	25.8%

Hendricks only has one weakness in terms of his DFS appeal. Can you spot it in the table above? In 13 starts, he has a 3.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.8% and a walk rate of 5.9%. He also induces an elite ground ball rate and doesn’t give up hard contact. So, what’s the issue? His inability to pitch deep into games. He is only averaging 90.3 pitches per start this season and Joe Maddon is quick to pinch hit for him anytime after the fifth inning. Hendricks certainly makes a lot of sense as an SP2 tonight, but I wouldn’t consider him a must start.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tom Koehler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,800
					FPPG:		28.5	FPPG:		13.6
					Pitcher Rating:		50.2	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	6	98.0	4.59	3.00	22.7%	12.7%	10.9%	43.8%	30.2%	22.9%
2016	14	95.3	5.07	3.92	19.1%	12.9%	9.0%	44.6%	33.5%	23.6%
2015	31	96.0	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Koehler hasn’t been terrible this season, but a 5.07 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 19.1% doesn’t really leap off the page at us either. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Cubs, who are ranked seventh in team wOBA and 11th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. As a sizable underdog at home, Koehler can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the tenth lowest implied run total tonight, but all is not lost. Their matchup against Tom Koehler is certainly exploitable, as he has allowed a .341 wOBA and 18 home runs to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Cubs’ left-handed bats make nice one-off targets for tournaments. I’m also considering Willson Contreras in all formats, as he is too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.0% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.30 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.324	0.189	0.344	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$2,400
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.337	0.146	0.330	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.374	0.216	0.342	3B	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,800
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.397	0.268	0.508	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,800
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.348	0.171	0.288	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,800
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.804	1.000	0.650	C	$2,500	C	$2,800
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.326	0.151	0.395	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,100
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.271	0.132	0.319	SS	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,200
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.058	0.000	0.000	P	$8,800	P	$9,500
	Team Averages	—	0.360	0.253	0.353	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Chris Coghlan, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – GPP

Miami

The Marlins come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Kyle Hendricks, who is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. Hendricks has allowed a .323 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons, but with such a low team total, I will be avoiding the Marlins’ offense.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.46 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.266	0.036	0.449	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.311	0.096	0.401	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.367	0.153	0.343	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.311	0.147	0.467	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.344	0.249	0.297	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.363	0.254	0.535	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,400
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.311	0.129	0.379	C	$3,000	C	$3,200
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.273	0.083	0.267	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.115	0.017	0.000	P	$7,300	P	$7,800
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.129	0.349	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 24th

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen (DK), Jung Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen (FD), Starling Marte

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Alex Rodriguez

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Starlin Castro, Chase Headley

Stackability – GPP

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Brad Miller, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Rickard, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis (GPP), Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Chris Coghlan, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – GPP

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

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