MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-07 03:02:14

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Washington at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Washington					Chicago Cubs
			Max Scherzer					John Lackey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -105					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.297	15	25.1%	6.4%	SP vs. Left	0.327	12	14.1%	9.1%
SP vs. Right	0.231	17	35.3%	2.0%	SP vs. Right	0.269	12	24.8%	3.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Max Scherzer
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$9,700	Salary:	$11,100
				FPPG:	37.0	FPPG:	19.7
				Pitcher Rating:	81.9	Pitcher Rank:	5
2016	6	3.56	25.2%	7.7%	40.8%	28.2%	11
2015	33	2.63	30.7%	3.8%	35.8%	28.1%	30

We have one day game on the schedule today. The Nationals and Cubs square off in Wrigley Field. Scherzer will take the mound for Washington. In his first six starts of the season, he has a 3.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.2%. His walks have been up a bit this season and he is still struggling to keep the ball in the park (32 home runs in his last 39 starts). Given his matchup against the red-hot Cubs’ offense, Scherzer is best suited as a GPP play in the all-day slate.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
John Lackey
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,700	Salary:	$8,700
				FPPG:	35.0	FPPG:	18.2
				Pitcher Rating:	61.8	Pitcher Rank:	14
2016	5	3.70	22.1%	6.9%	41.8%	35.5%	13
2015	33	3.90	19.5%	5.9%	46.0%	30.1%	28

Lackey’s ERA is up a bit this season, but his 3.70 SIERA and 22.1% strikeout rate aren’t bad at all. He has given up a fairly high hard hit contact rate, but he should have the platoon advantage over the Nationals, whose lineup mostly consists of right-handed hitters. While Lackey doesn’t have as much upside as Scherzer, he is considerably cheaper and judging by the Vegas line he has just as good of a chance to pick up the win.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Nationals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.44 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.72 (18 of 30)

The Nationals are a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching and they come into today’s game with the 13th lowest team total on the board. Over the last two seasons, John Lackey has allowed a .327 wOBA and 12 home runs to left-handed hitters. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy both have a .360+ wOBA against right-handed pitching during that stretch.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.325	0.080		OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.298	0.097	0.234	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,500
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.468	0.358	0.339	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,700
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.292	0.147	0.294	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,300
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.363	0.208	0.416	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,100
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.292	0.142	0.349	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.282	0.134	0.444	C	$3,000	C	$3,000
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.297	0.164	0.306	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.212	0.017	0.663	P	$9,700	P	$11,100
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.150	0.381	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 6.12 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.78 (16 of 30)

The Cubs average more runs per game than any team in baseball this season. They are also ranked eighth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO over the last two seasons. The issue today is their matchup. While Max Scherzer has struggled with the long ball, he has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. Anthony Rizzo makes a nice GPP target, but the rest of the Cubs are risky fantasy options.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.341	0.180	0.338	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,100
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.346	0.150	0.269	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,300
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.383	0.212	0.427	3B	$4,600	3B/OF	$4,300
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.401	0.284	0.533	1B	$4,900	1B	$4,600
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.325	0.154	0.381	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,300
6	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.309	0.143	0.215	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.325	0.146	0.369	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,100
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.245	0.113	0.325	C	$2,400	C	$2,100
9	John Lackey	RIGHT	0.137	0.033	0.000	P	$8,700	P	$8,700
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.157	0.317	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – NONE

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Boston					NY Yankees
			Rick Porcello					Michael Pineda
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -115					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.330	17	22.5%	5.3%	SP vs. Left	0.333	10	22.7%	5.1%
SP vs. Right	0.331	13	20.1%	4.8%	SP vs. Right	0.339	18	24.2%	2.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Rick Porcello
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,100	Salary:	$9,100
				FPPG:	47.2	FPPG:	25.3
				Pitcher Rating:	54.1	Pitcher Rank:	22
2016	5	2.82	28.1%	4.7%	49.4%	27.4%	11
2015	28	3.73	20.2%	5.2%	45.7%	32.8%	12

Porcello has really pitched well in his first five starts of the season, posting a 2.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.1%. His strikeout rate should come back down as the season progresses though, as his velocity hasn’t changed and his swinging strike rate is still around 8%. The Yankees’ offense hasn’t fared well this season, but they are still ranked above the league average in team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I like the price, but see Porcello strictly as a GPP play tonight.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Michael Pineda
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,700	Salary:	$7,100
				FPPG:	25.2	FPPG:	12.1
				Pitcher Rating:	66.6	Pitcher Rank:	12
2016	5	3.51	24.2%	6.5%	40.5%	34.1%	6
2015	27	3.09	23.4%	3.1%	48.2%	30.1%	3

Pineda has allowed at least two earned runs in every start so far this season. His SIERA looks a lot better than his ERA though, and he still sports a strikeout rate of 24.2%. Historically, he is a pitcher that throws a ton of strikes and doesn’t walk a lot of batters. Moving forward, we may be able to buy low on him in favorable matchups. Unfortunately, I want no part of him tonight against the Red Sox. Over the last two seasons, Boston is ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Red Sox Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.19 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.66 (21 of 30)

The Red Sox are currently ranked third in runs scored per game this season. They draw a tough matchup against Michael Pineda tonight and currently have the tenth lowest team total on the board. There are certainly better matchups to target tonight, but I don’t mind sprinkling a Red Sox hitter or two in my lineups.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.344	0.187	0.309	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.355	0.146	0.430	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.328	0.105	0.396	SS	$4,000	SS	$3,800
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.420	0.326	0.439	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,500
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.312	0.152	0.380	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800
6	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.361	0.198	0.342	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,200
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.314	0.106	0.272	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,000
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.311	0.182	0.301	C	$2,300	C	$2,700
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.340	0.243	0.429	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.343	0.183	0.366	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

Yankees Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.322 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.56 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (12 of 30)

The Yankees come into tonight’s game with the 12th highest team total on the board. The issue is that their recent play inspires very little confidence. They are currently ranked 25th in runs scored per game and they draw a difficult matchup against Rick Porcello. Much like the Red Sox, I won’t be actively targeting the Yankees, but you can sprinkle their bats in your lineups.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.294	0.101	0.335	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.327	0.148	0.273	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.350	0.194	0.196	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
4	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.385	0.310	0.315	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.332	0.205	0.333	C	$3,100	C	$3,300
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.290	0.126	0.349	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,900
7	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.282	0.118	0.074	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.304	0.123	0.167	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,600
9	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.295	0.095	0.129	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.158	0.241	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Oakland					Baltimore
			Rich Hill					Ubaldo Jimenez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -105					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.231	0	26.9%	3.9%	SP vs. Left	0.321	15	22.7%	9.1%
SP vs. Right	0.252	4	33.3%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.335	9	20.2%	9.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Rich Hill
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,900	Salary:	$7,400
				FPPG:	38.0	FPPG:	20.3
				Pitcher Rating:	78.8	Pitcher Rank:	6
2016	6	3.13	30.4%	9.6%	51.3%	34.2%	17
2015	4	2.29	34.0%	4.7%	48.4%	22.2%	26

The Hill comeback story continues. He has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his first starts this season, striking out at least eight hitters in three of those outings. He currently sports a 3.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.4%. He is certainly not priced up to his recent level of production, which makes him a nice value play tonight against the Orioles. As surprising as it is, Baltimore is ranked in the bottom ten in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Ubaldo Jimenez
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,100	Salary:	$6,600
				FPPG:	26.8	FPPG:	12.6
				Pitcher Rating:	48.5	Pitcher Rank:	25
2016	5	4.10	23.0%	11.9%	51.9%	35.0%	6
2015	32	3.93	21.2%	8.6%	49.1%	27.0%	4

Jimenez has struggled with his command recently. When his command is off, that’s the time to avoid him in daily fantasy. The A’s are a very patient team at the plate and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. This is not a matchup that suits Jimenez, even though he is currently listed as a small favorite. Rich Hill is by far the better pitching target in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Athletics Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.59 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.97 (10 of 30)

The A’s may not hit right-handed pitching well as a team, but they come into tonight’s contest with the tenth highest run projection on the board. They should be able to find some success against Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The A’s bats are cheap and could be a nice source of salary cap relief tonight.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.302	0.096	0.252	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,800
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.291	0.121	0.357	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,600
3	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.356	0.193	0.318	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.357	0.259	0.394	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300
5	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.348	0.206	0.319	C	$2,700	C	$3,900
6	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.340	0.208	0.228	3B	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,600
7	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.232	0.088	0.280	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800
8	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.316	0.105	0.310	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,600
9	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.290	0.150	0.310	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,900
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.158	0.308	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick (FD), Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

Orioles Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.289 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.132 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.35 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.03 (9 of 30)

While Rich Hill makes a nice value play at pitcher, the Orioles still have the ninth highest team total on the board. They may not hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo all have a .340+ wOBA against southpaws over the last two seasons. All three are in play tonight, although I wouldn’t use them in your Hill lineups.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.392	0.200	0.211	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.340	0.171	0.353	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,300
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.298	0.170	0.263	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,800
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.333	0.187	0.255	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,800
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.372	0.281	0.353	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.296	0.143	0.200	C	$2,200	C	$3,100
7	Nolan Reimold	RIGHT	0.355	0.155	0.399	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.271	0.098	0.274	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,500
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.263	0.119	0.278	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.169	0.287	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Joey Rickard, Manny Machado

Stackability – NONE

LA Dodgers at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Dodgers					Toronto
			Kenta Maeda					Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -145					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.229	1	23.3%	8.3%	SP vs. Left	0.237	3	15.6%	7.5%
SP vs. Right	0.240	1	21.9%	1.6%	SP vs. Right	0.264	3	18.8%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Kenta Maeda
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,600	Salary:	$9,800
				FPPG:	40.2	FPPG:	22.3
				Pitcher Rating:	55.1	Pitcher Rank:	20
2016	5	3.45	22.6%	4.8%	46.5%	22.5%	26

Maeda has pitched well in his first five major league starts, posting a 3.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.6%. Unfortunately, he is catching the Blue Jays’ offense at the wrong time. The sleeping giant may have finally woke up, as they score 14 runs against the Rangers last night. As a sizable underdog on the board, I will be avoiding Maeda in all league formats. He has shown that he can pitch well in hitter-friendly environments (Coors Field), but there are safer pitching targets on the board tonight.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Marcus Stroman
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,100	Salary:	$9,200
				FPPG:	34.5	FPPG:	17.9
				Pitcher Rating:	57.3	Pitcher Rank:	16
2016	6	3.91	16.6%	6.5%	59.4%	27.1%	21
2015	4	3.28	17.5%	5.8%	64.1%	21.8%	17

Stroman is the perfect type of pitcher that can succeed in the Rogers Centre. It is one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, so it can really help when a pitcher can produce a 60% ground ball rate. Stroman doesn’t’ have the highest strikeout rate, but he throws a lot of strikes and is typically able to pitch deep into games. I prefer him over Maeda in this matchup, although I plan to avoid both in cash games. The Dodgers have an above-average offense against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Dodgers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.32 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.74 (17 of 30)

The Dodgers come into tonight’s game with a mediocre team total of 3.74 runs. Even though Marcus Stroman doesn’t strike many hitters out, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA. He also has a hard hit contact rate under 24% in the last two seasons combined. You can take a look at a few of these Dodgers’ bats in tournaments, but there are safer options for cash games.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.308	0.151	0.391	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,400
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.369	0.183	0.391	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,500
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.372	0.192	0.322	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,900
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.356	0.216	0.254	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400
5	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.312	0.159	0.248	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
6	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.337	0.179	0.280	C	$2,900	C	$2,900
7	Carl Crawford	LEFT	0.302	0.153	0.203	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800
8	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.329	0.149	0.358	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,700
9	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.351	0.215	0.431	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.337	0.177	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

Blue Jays Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.341 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.189 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.90 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.26 (4 of 30)

The Blue Jays finally broke out of their slump with an offensive outburst last night at home. They will look to carry some of that momentum into tonight’s contest, although as we all know, momentum typically only goes as far as the next starting pitcher. Kenta Maeda has looked great in his first five major league starts and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .240 wOBA. The upside is that the Blue Jays have the fourth highest team total on the board.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.318	0.111	0.403	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,300
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.387	0.260	0.417	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,300
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.391	0.295	0.274	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.383	0.268	0.347	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.343	0.229	0.358	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,800
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.316	0.160	0.279	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,200
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.315	0.129	0.464	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
8	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.308	0.186	0.271	C	$2,200	C	$2,900
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.290	0.101	0.107	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.339	0.193	0.324	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Michael Saunders, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak

Stackability – GPP

Texas at Detroit – 7:08 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Detroit
			Cole Hamels					Jordan Zimmermann
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -130					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.296	4	22.4%	9.4%	SP vs. Left	0.320	13	19.4%	6.5%
SP vs. Right	0.301	22	24.5%	7.1%	SP vs. Right	0.268	12	19.5%	2.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Cole Hamels
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$9,900	Salary:	$9,900
				FPPG:	34.8	FPPG:	16.8
				Pitcher Rating:	55.3	Pitcher Rank:	19
2016	5	4.29	21.3%	11.8%	51.9%	18.5%	6
2015	32	3.45	24.4%	7.1%	47.7%	27.0%	20

Hamels hasn’t been great this season. He still has a strikeout rate above 20%, but he has a mediocre 4.29 SIERA and an awful walk rate of 11.8%. His price continues to drop across the industry, but this is not the matchup to buy low on Hamels. Over the last two seasons, the Tigers are ranked second in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against left-handed pitching. At his price point, it’s hard to see Hamels returning value tonight against Detroit.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jordan Zimmermann
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$10,100	Salary:	$8,600
				FPPG:	44.4	FPPG:	23.1
				Pitcher Rating:	56.1	Pitcher Rank:	18
2016	5	4.08	17.4%	5.3%	47.5%	22.6%	8
2015	33	3.83	19.7%	4.7%	42.0%	29.5%	8

Zimmermann has allowed 35 batters to reach base against him this season, but he has only given up two runs. The difference between his ERA (0.55) and his SIERA (4.08) is huge. We can expect some regression moving forward and given his matchup against the Rangers, I am not willing to overpay for Zimmermann. He has limited strikeout upside and his price has climbed above $10,000 on FanDuel.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Rangers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.21 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (14 of 30)

The Rangers had a disappointing series against the Blue Jays, but will look to right the ship against the Tigers in Detroit. They come into tonight’s game with a mediocre team total of 3.82 runs. Even though Jordan Zimmermann has one of the lowest ERAs in baseball, his advanced statistics suggest that he has not pitched nearly that well. The left-handed hitters in the Rangers’ lineup are worth a look in GPPs, as Zimmermann has allowed a .320 wOBA and 13 home runs to hitters from that side of the plate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.334	0.210	0.359	2B	$3,900	2B	$3,400
2	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.419	0.192	0.344	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
3	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.309	0.137	0.233	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,200
4	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.370	0.152	0.269	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.281	0.132	0.393	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
6	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.367	0.231	0.271	OF	$3,100	1B	$3,100
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.277	0.078	0.254	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,900
8	Bryan Holaday	RIGHT	0.248	0.103	0.150	C	$2,000	C	$2,000
9	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.308	0.105	0.205	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.149	0.275	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Prince Fielder

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

Tigers Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.177 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.54 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (6 of 30)

The Tigers are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. They come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest team total on the board. Cole Hamels is an above-average left-handed pitcher, but he has struggled out of the gates this season. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play and I don’t mind stacking them in both cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.364	0.162	0.248	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,000
2	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.249	0.096	0.294	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,000
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.402	0.190	0.403	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,100
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.382	0.142	0.486	C	$3,500	1B	$3,900
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.393	0.275	0.226	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.396	0.235	0.481	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,700
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.370	0.219	0.202	C	$2,000	C	$2,800
8	Anthony Gose	LEFT	0.245	0.065	0.312	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,400
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.377	0.095	0.199	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.353	0.164	0.317	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 6th

Washington at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – NONE

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick (FD), Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Joey Rickard, Manny Machado

Stackability – NONE

LA Dodgers at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – NONE

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Michael Saunders, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak

Stackability – GPP

Texas at Detroit – 7:08 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Prince Fielder

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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