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MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-14 20:21:06

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Baltimore
whitesoxmlb James Shields baltimoremlb Luis Ortiz
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS-103 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.357 31.9% 1.23 19.0% 37.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.601 0.300 20.0% 0.00 0.0% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.364 36.2% 1.57 16.6% 33.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.689 0.690 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3% 90.0 10.2%
2018 30 4.90 4.58 17.8% 8.8% 35.7% 34.1% 15.8% 89.4 10.3%
L14 2 4.81 5.23 15.6% 6.7% 45.5% 42.4% 18.2% 89.0 8.8%

We have a full 15-game slate on tap tonight. We’ll try to get through the games as quickly as possible. Keep in mind that we don’t have many full slates left in the MLB season, so take advantage while you still can. Shields is an appealing tournament play tonight, especially at a price of only $6,500 on DraftKings. His numbers aren’t all that enticing, but he typically averages close to a strikeout per inning and he rarely doesn’t pitch at least six innings. He draws a dream matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .289 with a strikeout rate of 21% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Shields is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Luis Ortiz
luis-ortiz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 0 10.59 40.50 0.0% 28.6% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 91.5 12.5%
L14 0 10.59 40.50 0.0% 28.6% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 91.5 12.5%

Ortiz made an appearance out of the bullpen last week, but tonight will mark his first career major league start. He’s a 22-year old righty that made six Triple-A starts before his call up. In those outings, he posted a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. Those are subpar for the minors, so we can expect him to struggle at the major league level. I always love a good White Sox stack and tonight looks like the perfect time to employ one in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ortiz in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they draw one of the most exploitable matchups on the board. Luis Ortiz is a rookie pitcher that is making his first career major league start. As noted above, he had a high FIP, a high fly-ball rate, and a low strikeout rate in the minors this season. The White Sox always see a nice boost against low-strikeout pitchers, as that’s been their biggest issue offensively this season. A full stack is firmly in play in tournaments, while Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu are elite plays individually.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.326 0.189 38.1% 10.5% 33.7% 33.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.308 0.153 28.7% 7.4% 18.6% 47.3% 2B $2,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.373 0.200 36.6% 6.1% 18.0% 43.2% 1B $3,600 1B $4,900 1B $8,700
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.316 0.197 33.0% 3.2% 26.3% 45.7% OF $2,800 OF $4,500 RF $9,000
5 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.325 0.261 37.6% 5.3% 33.0% 43.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,600 RF $9,400
6 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.321 0.169 31.7% 8.0% 22.4% 41.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,500
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.354 0.178 41.1% 2.9% 26.7% 41.1% C $2,300 C $3,500 C $6,900
8 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.272 0.167 29.4% 5.2% 25.7% 47.1% SS $3,200 SS $4,500 SS $9,200
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.258 0.113 28.6% 3.9% 28.0% 39.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,700
Team Averages 0.317 0.181 33.9% 5.8% 25.8% 42.5%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Avisail Garcia, Daniel Palka, Nick Delmonico

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Even though I have some interest in James Shield in tournaments, I have no issue with the Orioles’ offense. With Shields, I’m hoping for six or seven innings, six or seven strikeouts, and a few runs allowed. That’s typically the type of performance that we can expect from him. On the season, he has allowed a .357 xwOBA to lefties and a .364 xwOBA to righties. The fact that he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher bodes well for a ground-ball hitting Orioles’ offense. Jonathan Villar and Trey Mancini are both elite tournament plays, but I’d rather go with the two-man stack over the full Orioles’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.297 0.208 28.4% 8.1% 12.8% 56.5% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,300
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.292 0.117 30.0% 7.9% 26.0% 57.7% 2B $3,200 2B $4,500 2B $9,000
3 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.375 0.185 37.2% 7.0% 23.4% 48.5% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,500
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.153 32.7% 4.6% 17.8% 43.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.294 0.127 35.5% 8.1% 35.8% 39.5% 1B $2,200 1B $3,000 IF/OF $5,700
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.299 0.123 32.6% 4.9% 25.1% 46.9% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,400
7 DJ Stewart LEFT 0.151 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 LF $5,500
8 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.301 0.160 29.2% 8.0% 26.1% 43.2% 3B $2,300 3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.268 0.130 28.6% 3.5% 25.9% 44.4% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.289 0.134 31.9% 5.8% 21.4% 46.0%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar (GPP), Trey Mancini (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar (Cash), Trey Mancini (Cash), Cedric Mullins, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Philadelphia
miamimlb Wei-Yin Chen philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-165 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.247 0.270 35.3% 1.37 29.0% 49.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.339 29.6% 1.62 21.2% 37.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.314 31.8% 1.27 17.0% 34.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.279 28.7% 0.84 22.6% 43.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen
wei-yin-chen-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.61 3.82 18.9% 6.8% 36.6% 29.9% 24.7% 90.9 8.7%
2018 23 4.63 4.72 19.4% 8.3% 37.0% 32.4% 16.8% 91.1 8.4%
L14 2 3.14 3.00 28.9% 4.4% 30.0% 33.3% 30.0% 90.5 7.8%

Chen has pitched well since the All-Star break, posting a SIERA under four with a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s been even better in his last two starts, posting a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 4%. The issue with Chen has always been the long ball. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so we should only look to target him in big, pitcher-friendly ballparks. This doesn’t exactly qualify, as Citizens Bank Park is one of the smallest in baseball, which is why we see so many home runs hit here each season.

Quick Breakdown: I know the form is good and the price is enticing, but I’ll pass on Chen in this ballpark.

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 11 5.08 6.16 12.5% 4.3% 44.1% 33.3% 16.7% 92.7 7.3%
2018 21 4.02 4.42 22.0% 6.2% 40.5% 29.1% 20.5% 94.3 10.0%
L14 2 4.34 10.13 23.1% 10.3% 41.7% 20.0% 16.0% 94.3 11.2%

Eflin has quietly pitched well for the Phillies this season, posting a 4.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 6%. He should get overlooked tonight, even though he draws a favorable matchup at home. The Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .284 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching. My interest in Eflin will likely hinge on what this Marlins’ lineup looks like. If he has the platoon advantage (meaning he’ll face more righties than lefties), we can fire him up in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Depending on the Marlins’ lineup, Eflin could be a sneaky play in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Philadelphia and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled against lefties, but do we really want to play the likes of Rafael Ortega and Derek Dietrich in a 15-game slate? I see them as easy fades, unless you are playing mass multi-entry and need a couple of low-owned plays in a good ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.300 0.045 32.5% 6.3% 12.6% 46.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
2 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.327 0.123 35.8% 6.7% 19.1% 49.3% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.373 0.224 39.0% 7.2% 17.9% 41.5% C $3,300 C $4,800 C $9,000
4 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.343 0.119 37.5% 7.9% 18.5% 53.3% 3B $2,700 3B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
5 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.325 0.152 36.7% 6.5% 23.6% 39.2% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
6 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.293 0.145 41.1% 3.2% 31.2% 52.2% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 CF $5,400
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.323 0.174 32.9% 7.7% 19.1% 45.9% SS $2,100 SS $3,700 SS $7,400
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.165 0.011 21.7% 2.1% 25.3% 53.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,900
9 Wei-Yin Chen LEFT 0.103 0.032 5.0% 0.0% 39.4% 88.2% P $7,600 P $6,800 P $14,000
Team Averages 0.284 0.114 31.4% 5.3% 23.0% 52.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rafael Ortega, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a sneaky matchup against Wei-Yin Chen. Throughout his career, he has struggled against right-handed power. In his last 50 major league starts, he has allowed 37 home runs to right-handed hitters. Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr, Jose Bautista, Wilson Ramos, and Maikel Franco all bat from the right side and all have good career numbers against southpaws. This isn’t my favorite full stacks, but I will certainly be sprinkling the Phillies throughout my lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.365 0.221 32.6% 11.0% 9.8% 42.6% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,500
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.343 0.128 26.2% 19.7% 19.0% 28.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,900 IF/OF $9,200
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.324 0.151 36.7% 14.0% 29.1% 42.9% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 RF $5,600
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.355 0.172 38.7% 19.2% 25.8% 35.5% OF $2,100 3B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.413 0.250 42.5% 4.7% 19.8% 47.5% C $2,800 C $4,300 C $8,100
6 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.327 0.058 28.0% 13.8% 19.4% 56.9% 2B $2,300 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.353 0.142 33.0% 8.5% 11.9% 40.4% 3B $2,600 3B $3,600 3B $7,700
8 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.253 0.115 27.0% 5.0% 33.3% 26.0% SS $2,000 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.084 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 62.5% 100.0% P $7,200 P $6,900 P $13,600
Team Averages 0.313 0.137 33.1% 10.7% 25.6% 46.7%

Elite Plays – Wilson Ramos (DK), Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Carlos Santana, Aaron Altherr, Jose Bautista

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
torontomlb Marco Estrada nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-285 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.314 26.6% 1.19 17.7% 24.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.309 35.5% 1.00 24.6% 51.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.395 0.384 33.9% 2.31 16.3% 22.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.314 39.2% 1.82 25.7% 44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4% 89.9 10.9%
2018 25 5.41 5.32 16.9% 8.0% 23.4% 30.7% 18.6% 88.7 10.1%
L14 2 6.42 6.97 12.2% 10.2% 20.0% 24.3% 16.2% 88.0 8.2%

Estrada struggled last year and has had an even worse season in 2018. In 25 starts, he has a 5.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that relies on inducing soft and medium contact. When that doesn’t happen, he tends to give up a lot of home runs. I know he has a good track record against the Yankees over the course of his career, but he has given up five home runs in his three starts against New York this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Estrada in all formats.

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,500
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5% 92.2 15.1%
2018 24 3.48 3.61 25.2% 5.6% 47.6% 37.5% 17.5% 91.7 14.0%
L14 2 2.54 0.60 28.6% 1.8% 52.6% 33.3% 10.3% 91.8 15.7%

Tanaka is my favorite pitcher to pay up for tonight, which is incredibly scary given the fact that Max Scherzer is pitching. Tanaka has been solid all season, posting a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 6%. He induces ground balls, he gets a lot of swings and misses, and he’s been dominant against the Blue Jays in his career. Toronto’s current roster has a .285 wOBA with 23 strikeouts in 108 plate appearances. Tanaka is a huge favorite, he’s in good form, and he should have lower ownership than Scherzer.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is my favorite pitcher to pay up for in tonight’s slate.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

With Masahiro Tanaka being my top pitching option on the board tonight, I naturally have little to no interest in the Blue Jays. In addition to above-average ground ball and strikeout rates, Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. Toronto hasn’t hit him well in the past and I’m not expecting that to change tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.412 0.226 35.4% 9.9% 21.1% 39.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 LF $7,600
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.336 0.152 32.5% 3.8% 22.5% 40.5% SS $2,900 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,400
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.402 0.262 39.5% 15.7% 26.7% 33.5% 1B $3,000 1B $3,700 1B $7,600
4 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.347 0.276 36.8% 5.7% 24.3% 34.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 RF $7,500
5 Rowdy Tellez LEFT 0.454 0.588 42.9% 0.0% 17.6% 21.4% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.345 0.171 34.3% 3.6% 19.3% 34.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 CF $5,700
7 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.328 0.137 29.5% 6.6% 15.8% 43.6% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,100 3B $5,700
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.349 0.188 33.1% 3.9% 13.1% 41.0% 3B $2,800 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,300
9 Reese McGuire LEFT 0.433 0.167 60.0% 14.3% 14.3% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.378 0.241 38.2% 7.1% 19.4% 36.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees have plenty of upside tonight against Marco Estrada, but extreme fly-ball pitchers aren’t always the best to stack against. Yes, they allow a lot of home run, but they also get a lot of unproductive fly-ball outs. Rather than a full stack, I will be chasing the home run upside of this offense through mini two-man and three-man stacks. Estrada has some serious reverse-splits this season, holding lefties to a .314 xwOBA while allowing a .384 xwOBA to righties. Andrew McCutchen, Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez are all elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.361 0.148 43.8% 14.3% 21.5% 40.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,400
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.380 0.188 37.5% 16.8% 19.1% 43.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 CF $9,200
3 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.359 0.219 37.5% 3.6% 16.5% 47.1% 3B $4,100 3B $4,400 3B $8,200
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.324 0.204 38.0% 9.0% 32.0% 45.9% OF $4,400 OF $4,700 RF $9,100
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.346 0.238 37.4% 9.2% 12.1% 36.1% SS $3,800 SS $5,200 SS $9,400
6 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.346 0.217 36.1% 10.0% 24.6% 45.2% C $3,200 C $4,100 C $8,500
7 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.438 0.339 46.0% 12.5% 28.1% 42.1% 1B $3,600 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
8 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.358 0.175 35.6% 8.7% 23.9% 33.3% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 2B $7,500
9 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.295 0.147 27.5% 11.5% 15.9% 48.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 LF $9,000
Team Averages 0.356 0.208 37.7% 10.6% 21.5% 42.4%

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Detroit Cleveland
detroitmlb Matt Boyd clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-175 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.264 42.7% 1.24 26.6% 32.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.482 0.451 41.6% 4.50 14.2% 28.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.303 35.8% 1.09 21.5% 29.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.386 38.7% 2.94 13.3% 30.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.94 5.27 18.2% 8.8% 38.1% 34.6% 21.0% 92.0 10.0%
2018 28 4.25 4.11 22.6% 7.2% 30.2% 37.3% 19.7% 90.3 10.3%
L14 2 3.13 2.77 35.4% 4.2% 13.8% 37.9% 13.8% 92.5 15.8%

Boyd is yet another pitcher that has quietly had a nice season. In 28 starts, he owns a 4.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 7%. He’s been in good form recently, but we can throw all of that out the window thanks to a matchup against the Indians in Cleveland. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .334 with a strikeout rate of 18% against left-handed pitching. There is more risk than potential reward here.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Boyd in all formats.

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 26 4.17 4.98 18.6% 2.4% 39.6% 36.2% 14.0% 87.7 8.4%
2018 6 4.92 6.63 13.7% 3.9% 29.3% 39.9% 13.0% 87.5 8.7%
L14 0 3.11 3.38 27.3% 0.0% 12.5% 37.5% 0.0% 89.1 15.9%

We haven’t seen Tomlin for a while, but i’m glad that he’s back in our lives. On the season, he owns a 4.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a hard contact rate of 40%. He has limited upside as is and he’s not stretched out enough to throw a full complement of pitches anyway. Even though a matchup against the Tigers is enticing, he should be avoided tonight.

Quick Breakdown: If anything, we should have more interest in the Tigers than in Tomlin tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers draw an exploitable matchup against Josh Tomlin and get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Granted, they are still the Detroit Tigers, but this could be a sneaky spot to target a couple of their hitters in tournaments. Tomlin has allowed a .451 xwOBA to lefties and a .386 xwOBA to righties this season. Nick Castellanos is one of my favorite one-off targets tonight, as he boasts a .383 xwOBA, a .195 ISO, and a 48% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.284 0.167 32.9% 11.7% 26.7% 38.2% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 3B $8,200
2 Christin Stewart LEFT 0.283 0.091 42.9% 8.3% 33.3% 28.6% OF $2,100 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.383 0.195 48.0% 6.9% 23.7% 33.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,100
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.338 0.087 38.2% 7.0% 9.9% 39.0% C $2,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
5 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.282 0.135 36.7% 3.8% 22.6% 45.8% 1B $2,400 1B $3,700 LF $7,500
6 Ronny Rodriguez RIGHT 0.263 0.086 34.2% 7.8% 24.1% 49.4% SS $2,700 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.283 0.096 38.5% 5.4% 24.5% 38.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,800
8 Dawel Lugo RIGHT 0.310 0.081 41.9% 7.5% 15.0% 61.3% 2B $2,100 2B $4,000 3B $7,200
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.296 0.174 32.6% 4.2% 32.4% 41.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
Team Averages 0.302 0.124 38.4% 7.0% 23.6% 41.8%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Christin Stewart (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians are typically one of my favorite offenses to stack, but I don’t have a ton of interest in them tonight. Matt Boyd is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. Outside of Francisco Lindor (8-for-20 with four extra-base hits), this offense has struggled against Boyd in the past. Rather than a full stack, I will be targeting Lindor and Jose Ramirez as one-offs in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.402 0.219 42.8% 11.0% 12.2% 45.4% SS $4,400 SS $5,500 SS $10,200
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.330 0.104 25.8% 3.5% 9.9% 50.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 LF $8,500
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.343 0.216 36.5% 7.8% 9.6% 38.2% 2B $4,600 2B/3B $5,300 IF/OF $9,400
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.375 0.159 44.6% 17.1% 18.6% 28.9% 1B $3,700 1B $4,300 1B $8,500
5 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.337 0.163 44.4% 12.2% 32.7% 51.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,500
6 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.231 0.067 29.2% 0.0% 20.0% 54.2% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,800
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.347 0.224 34.2% 9.5% 16.4% 35.4% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 RF $6,600
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.387 0.212 46.5% 8.1% 25.2% 29.6% C $2,700 C $3,700 C $7,400
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.258 0.022 32.4% 5.2% 20.8% 45.7% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
Team Averages 0.334 0.154 37.4% 8.3% 18.4% 42.1%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor (GPP), Jose Ramirez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor (Cash), Jose Ramirez (Cash), Josh Donaldson (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

NY Mets Boston
nymetsmlb Noah Syndergaard bostonmlb Hector Velazquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.277 21.3% 0.26 21.6% 46.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.365 0.378 28.2% 1.57 13.6% 38.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.278 21.3% 0.75 27.3% 53.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.321 31.7% 0.21 14.9% 59.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
noah-syndergaard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3% 98.3 13.9%
2018 21 3.46 3.44 24.2% 5.7% 49.2% 21.3% 24.5% 97.5 14.2%
L14 2 4.04 2.87 23.4% 9.4% 46.5% 25.6% 14.0% 97.5 13.9%

Syndergaard has elite velocity and an elite swinging strike rate. In 21 starts, he owns a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 49%. We get all of this at a price point under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. That is all thanks to a matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway. Not only is this a massive ballpark downgrade, but he’ll have to face a DH instead of the opposing pitching in the lineup. If I’m only building one or two lineups, Syndergaard likely won’t make the player pool. Three lineups or more and I’ll take some shots in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Syndergaard is enticing at this price point, but he’s obviously risky in a matchup against the Red Sox.

Hector Velazquez
hector-velazquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 3 4.32 2.92 19.8% 7.3% 42.9% 30.0% 11.4% 89.6 7.9%
2018 7 4.59 3.29 14.3% 7.7% 50.2% 30.1% 17.2% 90.8 7.9%
L14 1 5.63 5.06 12.5% 12.5% 50.0% 27.8% 22.2% 90.5 8.5%

Velazquez hasn’t been great in his seven starts this season. He owns a 4.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14%. He is pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark and is facing an underrated Mets’ offense that gets to utilize the DH in this series. New York’s projected lineup boasts a .326 xwOBA and a .178 ISO against right-handed pitching. There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Velazquez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets see a ballpark boost playing in Boston, they get to use the DH in this series, and they draw an exploitable matchup against Hector Velazquez. Oh, and nobody ever plays the Mets in DFS. I absolutely love this spot for New York and wouldn’t hesitate to use them as a full stack in tournaments. On the season, Velazquez has allowed a .378 xwOBA to lefties and a .321 xwOBA to righties. Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce (especially on FanDuel), and Brandon Nimmo are all elite tournament plays that should fly under the radar in terms of ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.283 0.128 27.1% 5.0% 19.3% 50.2% SS $3,100 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.326 0.158 30.3% 4.5% 9.8% 36.8% 2B $3,800 2B $4,600 2B $9,100
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.342 0.177 37.6% 15.2% 22.7% 40.9% OF $3,600 OF $5,000 LF $10,000
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.377 0.148 35.7% 11.7% 18.4% 28.7% OF $2,700 1B/OF $4,200 RF $8,400
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.347 0.216 44.7% 8.2% 21.2% 34.7% 3B $3,200 3B $4,200 3B $8,500
6 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.373 0.256 38.1% 14.3% 24.6% 38.8% OF $3,700 OF $5,400 LF $10,300
7 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.296 0.226 40.7% 2.3% 34.5% 29.6% 1B $2,400 1B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
8 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.319 0.173 37.6% 9.2% 22.3% 50.0% C $2,300 C $4,100 C $8,100
9 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.271 0.117 22.8% 8.9% 16.0% 48.4% 3B $2,200 3B/SS $3,800 SS $7,200
Team Averages 0.326 0.178 35.0% 8.8% 21.0% 39.8%

Elite Plays – Jeff McNeil (GPP), Michael Conforto (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP), Brandon Nimmo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jeff McNeil (Cash), Michael Conforto (Cash), Jay Bruce (Cash), Brandon Nimmo (Cash), Amed Rosario, Todd Frazier, Domonic Smith

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox draw one of the worst matchups on the board. Sure, they are playing at home in Fenway, but I try to avoid hitters that are facing elite pitchers, especially in full slates like this one. There are 14 other games on the schedule and believe me when I tell you that there are so many gas cans on the mound tonight. The one weakness for Noah Syndergaard has been an inability to hold runners, which does bring Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi into play for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.445 0.262 44.2% 11.9% 14.2% 34.2% OF $4,600 OF $5,600 RF $10,200
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.396 0.195 29.9% 12.4% 14.2% 37.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 LF $8,700
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.449 0.327 44.8% 11.2% 22.2% 44.1% OF $4,400 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.383 0.259 37.6% 6.8% 16.5% 46.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,600 SS $9,400
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.410 0.218 36.5% 11.1% 20.6% 40.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 1B $7,300
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.333 0.185 31.2% 8.2% 11.9% 37.3% 2B $2,700 2B $3,800 2B $7,700
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.325 0.196 36.1% 8.0% 24.4% 44.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.283 0.086 27.7% 4.0% 15.0% 40.4% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,700
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.379 0.182 41.6% 10.0% 22.4% 39.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
Team Averages 0.378 0.212 36.6% 9.3% 17.9% 40.5%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious